A Triple-Double Season for LeBron?
On ABC right now, they’re talking about the question of whether or not LeBron James could ever average a triple-double across the course of a season, the way Oscar Robinson did in the 1961-62 season. Discussion of this issue would benefit from consideration of the question of pace. NBA record-keeping wasn’t sufficiently detailed in the 1960s to calculate pace factor in a fully rigorous manner, but everyone’s understanding is that the game was played much faster in the 60s than it was even in the 1980s which, in turn, were faster than today. For example, in the 61-62 season, the average team took 8619 field goal attempts over the course of an 80 game season. Last season the average team had only 6683 field goal attempts in an 82 game season.
In the 2007-2008 season, LeBron averaged 7.2 assists, and 7.9 rebounds as well as 30 points per game. That season, the Cleveland Cavaliers played with a pace factor of 90.2, which was unusually slow—22nd out of 30. To have any chance at breaking the Robinson line, not only would LeBron probably need to start wracking up assists at a somewhat higher rate, but Cleveland would need to start playing substantially faster.
35 Responses to “A Triple-Double Season for LeBron?”
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February 22nd, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Oscar Robinson? Come on Matt.
February 22nd, 2009 at 2:42 pm
To have any chance at breaking the Robinson line, not only would LeBron probably need to start wracking up assists at a somewhat higher rate…
Probably?
February 22nd, 2009 at 2:43 pm
I hope he gives it a try; then he’ll be totally burned out for the playoffs. Don’t be passing the ball to Ben Wallace; can’t get assists that way.
February 22nd, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Unlikely in the extreme. Season’s too long, and the competition is too good.
February 22nd, 2009 at 2:53 pm
What would LeBron’s stats look like now if you adjusted for slower pace? I imagine he would clearly be averaging over a triple-double in those terms, right? Also, is the current slow pace a function of rule changes or is it a function of style of play or other cultural factors?
February 22nd, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Oscar Robinson.
Hilarious.
Matt’s basketball posts have always reeked of ill-informed & inexperienced nonsense from one who has rarely played or watched the game, but bolstered by reliance on over-analytical discussion of “advanced” basketball statistics. This post simply confirms it. Beautiful stuff.
February 22nd, 2009 at 3:20 pm
I may be wrong about this but I seem to recall that Wilt Chamberlain averaged a triple double at least once in his career (probably when he was with the Lakers).
February 22nd, 2009 at 3:23 pm
Re Seth
I suspect that the slower pace of play is due to the increased emphasis on defense in the NBA over the last 30 years.
February 22nd, 2009 at 3:24 pm
Know who else was good? ‘The Admirible’ David Robertson.
It’s not just pace that makes it hard to average a triple double, field goal percentage is up from the early days of the NBA so it leaves fewer rebounds although that would help with the assists because more baskets are converted. LeBron will do it if he goes to the D’Antoni Knicks.
February 22nd, 2009 at 3:26 pm
Yeah, Lebron would have to play in a much faster system to have chance at this. As great as he’s been, he’s still pretty far from having a realistic chance getting a triple-double for a season. His career high in rebounds per game is 7.9 and for assists, it’s 7.2. As impressive as that is, that’s still not all that close to 10 and 10. Before this season, he “only” had 17 triple doubles (including playoffs) in 490 career games.
Nonetheless, he’s amazing and certainly has the potential to be a better player than Michael Jordan, which is totally unexpected. If he develops a more reliable jumpshot and/or a post-up game, he’ll be unstoppable. Can you imagine LeBron is Jordan’s fadeaway jumper? Yikes.
His recent game against the Brewers was one of the most amazing things I’ve ever seen in basketball. Specifically, the three-pointers. He was doing for well behind the line, off the dribble, on the run, with guys in his face, and it simply didn’t matter.
February 22nd, 2009 at 3:33 pm
“His recent game against the Brewers was one of the most amazing things I’ve ever seen in basketball.”
I’d certainly hope he’d look impressive playing the Brewers.
February 22nd, 2009 at 3:35 pm
2010. Lebron James meets Mike D’Antoni. As long as James has someone to finish off his passes, he’s going to be to close to 30-10-10.
February 22nd, 2009 at 3:54 pm
The ‘61-62 Cincinatti Royals averaged 123.1 points per game.
LeBron is averaging fewer minutes this year than last and putting up about equal stats on a faster paced team so I’m not quite sure what season to use to compare but let’s use last year because it’s a full season.
The ‘07-08 Cleveland Cavs averaged 96.4 points per game.
123.1 – 96.4 = 26.7
The 26.7 point gap is 27.7% faster, call it pace factor 1.277.
LeBron went for 30 pts, 7.9 boards, and 7.2 assists in ‘07-08.
Pace factor 1.277 x LeBron = 38.3 points, 10.1 reb., 9.2 asts.
The only problem is the most the Phoenix Suns ever averaged under D’Antoni was 110 points per game. It would really be a show if LeBron was in NYC putting up triple doubles on a team that played faster than the best Suns teams of recent vintage.
February 22nd, 2009 at 3:57 pm
@Adam – you have to factor in the difficulty of playing against 4 extra men
February 22nd, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Rajon Rondo on his way today.
February 22nd, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Re Nicholas Warino
Mr. James is going to have to play much better defense if he is to surpass Michael Jordan. As was once said about Jordan, the only thing worse then guarding him was having him guard you.
February 22nd, 2009 at 4:03 pm
Looking at these numbers LeBron could easily average a triple double on a D’Antoni team if he made it a goal. Just focus less on scoring and more on rebounding and passing. I’m not sure if that’s the best way to win basketball games but I can easily see LeBron averaging 25-11-11 on a team that scores 110 points a game in NYC.
February 22nd, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Slc, have you seen Lebron this year? His D isn’t quite at Jordan levels but it’s damn close.
February 22nd, 2009 at 4:27 pm
Probably the modern player that came closest to a triple double was Magic Johnson in 1981-1982, averaging 18.6 points, 9.6 rebounds and 9.5 assists a game. He did it in a Lakers team that played at a pace of 103.1 possesions a game, a full 13 possesions above the 07-08 Cavs. By contrast, the D’Antoni Phoenix Suns, have never played at a pace faster than 96 possesions a game. Even the fastest team in the league, the Golden State Warriors, doesn’t surpass the 98 poss. a game. So no, there’s no way Lebron can average a triple double in today’s league: the game is just too slow. On the other hand, if he could play on a team like the 1981-82 Nuggets, with their almost 110 possesions a game pace..
February 22nd, 2009 at 4:31 pm
I seem to recall that Wilt Chamberlain averaged a triple double at least once in his career (probably when he was with the Lakers).
Nope.
He was in double-figures in points per game and rebounds per game every season of his career, but his best mark for assists per game was 8.6, in 1967-68 (when he led the league in total assists).
Chamberlain’s stats at Basketball-Reference.com
February 22nd, 2009 at 4:49 pm
It also has to be said that pace isn’t just a function of how fast your team want to play; it’s also a function of how fast the OTHER team wants to play. That’s the reason even today “fast” teams can’t get close to the pace of Doug Moe’s Nuggets; their opponents are slowing the game too much now while in the early 80s most of your opponents wanted to run too.
February 22nd, 2009 at 4:57 pm
I’m not sure about that. I think that was true before this year, but LeBron has raised his defensive game this year where he can dominate games with his defense. He’s still not as good as Jordan (nor is he on offense), but I think he has the potential to surpass him.
I don’t say this lightly. I’ve thought that Jordan’s legacy has been downgraded a bit. Because Kobe’s game is similar to Jordan, I think people have retroactively lessened Jordan’s ability. Jordan was better by a notch or two in every aspect of his game, other than perhaps pure shooting. Because of this, he was a much better player than Kobe. I think Kobe’s peak is close to Jordan’s last year on the Bulls, but was a level or two lower than Jordan from 1986-1997. Here’s Jordan’s PER from that span:
86-87: 29.8
87-88: 31.7
88-89: 31.1
89-90: 31.2
90-91: 31.6
91-92: 27.7
92-93: 29.7
94-95: 22.1 (Comeback year)
95-96: 29.4
96-97: 27.8
Kobe got to 28.0 in 2005-2006 (Jordan topped that 8 times). He’s been in the 23-26 range besides that, where as Jordan was at 25 in his last year. Jordan was also a better defender and a much better teammate.
With LeBron, if he can add another offensive weapon and get close to Jordan’s intensity, he can surpass Jordan. Those are two big “ifs” however.
By the way, here’s LeBron’s PER the last 5 years:
04-05: 25.7
05-06: 28.1
06-07: 24.5
07-08: 29.1
08-09: 32.0 (Currently a record).
This year, LeBron is a better defender than Kobe, and has always been a better teammate.
February 22nd, 2009 at 5:00 pm
Until looking it up I didn’t realize the 24 sec clock was over 50 years old; I would suppose then the difference in the eras must be the defensive rules (now more liberal than they’ve been in a half century)
February 22nd, 2009 at 5:27 pm
Take it easy on MY all. It’s not his fault he’s never touched a basketball.
February 22nd, 2009 at 9:11 pm
One thing to keep in mind is that an assist is fundamentally a subjective judgement, and the definition has varied somewhat over the years. It makes it kind of hard to compare Oscar Robertson to John Stockton to Lebron.
RE: SLC, pace really isn’t related to defense; it’s more a matter of the system run by the offense. That’s why D’Antoni teams get unfairly criticism as being bad on defense. Their per-possesion stats are actually pretty good. It’s just that there are a possesions on both sides.
February 22nd, 2009 at 9:14 pm
Ugh… some MY-inspired typing on my part. It should be “unfairly criticisED” and “are a LOT of possesions”
February 22nd, 2009 at 9:24 pm
bh, “pace” reflects the offense played by both teams. A D’Antoni team could shoot in 7 seconds or less every time, but if the other team holds it for 23 seconds every possession, the total number of possessions is going to be lower than if both teams are shooting every 10 or 12 second, say. So, yes, D’Antoni’s teams play games with a lot of possessions on each side, but there would be way more possessions on each side if both teams were coached by D’Antoni-types. Just look what happens when the Knicks play the Warriors.
February 23rd, 2009 at 9:18 am
Book it: It will never, ever, ever happen. I don’t care what pace he plays or who his coach is. In fact, I doubt he ever even averages a double-double, though he could prove me wrong there if he starts playing regular minutes at the 4 later in his career and grabs more rebounds. He’s never going to break 10 assists per game though, sorry.
February 23rd, 2009 at 10:04 am
There’s a small chance he could have had 10 blocks/game early in his career. Most people who watched him play think he probably would have the career lead in total blocks. They weren’t recorded then. It is a ridiculous number, I think the current record for seasonal average is about 5.5, but Chamberlin put up absolutely ridiculous numbers in his early years. It wasn’t just “pace” that got Wilt 50 points per game or 27 rebounds per game. He was over 7′, and was the fastest player in the league, and had the best vertical jump in the league. The game changed to deal with him. Before that, he could easily have been blocking a ridiculous number of shots.
February 23rd, 2009 at 11:48 am
I do think it’s quite possible for LeBron to average 10+ rebounds per game at some point later in his career. I swear to Jeebus he gains about 5-10 lbs every season (what is he now, 270?) and he’s been steadily playing more power forward for the Cavs when they go small (even playing center once in a great while). Should LeBron play on a roster where he is the starting 4 (a D’Antoni-coached team, for example) and then let’s say he does develop some kind of a post game, LeBron would certainly be in position to acquire a ton more rebounds.
Assists, however, seem much more unlikely.
And really, the bottom line here is that if Jason Kidd can’t do it and Magic Johnson couldn’t do it, it’s hard to see why LeBron would every really come close. Not sure why he is always the subject of this particular discussion.
February 23rd, 2009 at 12:59 pm
To all those morons harping on D’Antoni plus The King, stuff it. He is staying in Cleveland(ref: Howard Beck, NYT), and this Cavs team is just the right mix for him to build a dynasty. He is transformed an 11-71 team to a 71-11(possible next year) calibre team. With his bare hands. Mo Williams, Boobie Gibson, Andy Varejao, Big Ben, Delonte “The Soul” West, JJ the rookie, TK, Sasha, Machine Gun Wally(aka SczerbiMask) all make a damn good team.
And those cribbing about his defense, just watch a few more games. He blocks Yao and Kobe from his weak side. Thats how far his vertical leap, body strength, and positional awareness are.
LBJ is the closest a human being has come to flying. He is the truth and he will bring Cleveland a plethora of championships. Wait and watch. And yeah, he can avergae a triple double if he wants. The thing is he only cares about winning.
We Are All Witnesses
February 23rd, 2009 at 4:08 pm
It’s not just the pace of the games, it’s how many missed shots there are. There were just a lot more rebounds to be had in Robertson’s day. It’s hard for centers to average 10+ rpg anymore, it’ll be a cold day in hell before a perimeter player does it. No disrespect to Lebron.
February 23rd, 2009 at 4:47 pm
Too Many Steves,
Right on all points. I was just reacting to the pace = defense canard.