Voinovich Retiring
Looks like Ohio Senator George Voinovich will be stepping down rather than running for re-election in 2010. With Kit Bond of Missouri, Mel Martinez of Florida and Sam Brownback of Kansas all also retiring, the GOP is basically destined to be playing defense that year. Those are three good pickup opportunities for Democrats plus a bonus fourth opportunity in Kansas if Kathleen Sebelius will get in the race.
But perhaps more interesting is what impact this will have on Voinovich’s voting in the 111th Senate. Along with Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, and Arlen Specter, Voinovich is a guy who you’d consider one of the “most likely to defect” Senators in order to help progressive bills overcome conservative filibuster efforts. But absent a re-election campaign, he won’t be torn between a need to play to the base to raise funds and a need to tack to the middle to get votes. He can just do what he wants. But nobody’s quite sure what that’ll be.
24 Responses to “Voinovich Retiring”
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January 12th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
His status as a sometimes swing vote came from the fact that Ohio is a swing state (though quickly becoming solidly blue). His heart is with the Republicans, no doubt.
Personally I want to see Dennis Kucinich replace him. Voinovich replaced Dennis when he ran against him for Mayor of Cleveland on the issue of debts that Kucinich wasn’t responsible for (the previous mayor is at fault here). Now maybe Dennis can replace him.
January 12th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
I predict that Mr. Voinovich will not become a profile in courage. He is second to none when it comes to crying like a baby, but unfortunately his votes have rarely reflected such keen sensitivity.
January 12th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
Rob Portman’s running with $1.5 million in the bank already, Democrats have statewide elections to worry about, and the bench behind the Congressional candidates is pretty weak. Ohio isn’t a good pick up opportunity for Democrats.
I tried emailing you something on this but the email address wasn’t working for some reason, so I’ll paste a link for anyone whose interested. This is me breaking down the potential candidates being tossed around today for Democrats. I’m a former politcal operative in Ohio who decided on a career change, for what it’s worth.
http://www.below-the-fold.com/BrienJackson/?p=1612
January 12th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
Yeah, as a re-election candidate I thought Voinovich might be a help on, say, EFCA. I don’t think he’s likely to be of assistance any more.
January 12th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
What blah said: got any examples (absent the Bolton confirmation hearings) where Voinovich’s vote actually made a difference?
January 12th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
I sort of wonder if this whole GOP retirement wave is going to incent Obama to push major pieces of his domestic agenda into the post-2010 timeframe. If the wait culminates in a filibuster-proof Senate — and it sounds like the odds are at least even now — why not make the first two years all about enacting a Big Bad Stimulus and getting out of Iraq, head into midterms with two big feathers in your cap, and do health care and comprehensive climate change and all that good stuff in the ensuing two years? Makes a tidy little re-elect campaign in 2012, I’d say.
January 12th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
You double-counted Kansas. Brownback is leaving, and Kathleen Sebelius should run for the vacant seat, but it is still only one pickup opportunity.
January 12th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
head into midterms with two big feathers in your cap, and do health care and comprehensive climate change and all that good stuff in the ensuing two years?
Because the 60-vote thing is a mirage — Frist managed with 55, a bunch of weak Dems and a lot of arm-twisting — and because the midterm House election could conceivably change the dynamics. Unforeseen events are the potholes of politics.
The first year will establish the momentum for everything that follows.
January 12th, 2009 at 4:29 pm
You double-counted Kansas. Brownback is leaving, and Kathleen Sebelius should run for the vacant seat, but it is still only one pickup opportunity.
Matt’s writing wasn’t very clear, but he meant Ohio, Missouri, and Florida were three good pickup opportunities, and Kansas is the bonus fourth if Sebelius jumps in.
January 12th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
This seat is a decent pick-up opportunity for Democrats in 2010 but it will not be a priority for the state party. Republicans will be fighting to unseat Secretary of State Brunner in the hope of regaining control of the reapportionment board, which contains a legislative delegation evenly split among the parties, the governor, the auditor and the secretary of state. The auditor is currently a Republican who will most likely be re-elected. Strickland, despite his faults, will be re-elected easily. That leaves Jennifer Brunner. If Republicans win that race, they win control of the reapportionment board and will be able to redraw the state legislative districts to make them even more Republican friendly – something they’d be aching to do after losing control of the Ohio House.
This is why the DSCC needs to step up and get behind a strong, well-funded Democratic contender like Lt. Governor Lee Fisher. The ODP will have its hands tied helping Jennifer Brunner. All that matters to the state parties is control of the reapportionment board.
January 12th, 2009 at 6:46 pm
His status as a sometimes swing vote came from the fact that Ohio is a swing state (though quickly becoming solidly blue). His heart is with the Republicans, no doubt.
On what basis do you say that? As Matt notes, political considerations pull him in two directions. On the one hand, there’s keeping the base happy to prevent primary challenges, and on the other hand, there’s pulling to the middle to win over swing voters. I’d say that his background, if anything, would suggest that he’s likely more naturally centrist than he’s been in the Senate – he was the mayor of Cleveland! Not too many ultra-conservatives getting votes in Cleveland, even in the 80s.
In spite of frequent claims that moderate Republicans basically only pretend to be moderate to get elected, there’s considerable evidence to suggest this isn’t the case. There’s a lot of competing political motivations, and not all of them would push one to pretend to be a centrist. We also have a couple of examples of moderate Republicans who’ve moved to the left after issues of election ceased to be a question – Wayne Gilchrest, Jim Leach, and Lincoln Chafee all come to mind.
Now I doubt Voinovich has been especially afraid of a primary challenge, but it is a real possibility for Republicans who get out of line. There’s also been the issue that with a Republican president, opposing the president’s agenda can be seen as disloyal, and not wishing to be seen as disloyal to a president of one’s own party is a pretty significant principle to most Republicans (not so much so for Democrats, who take pleasure in being disloyal to their presidents’ agenda). With a Democratic president, that isn’t as much of an issue.
Basically, I think we’ll have to see. My general feeling is that most moderate Republicans have genuinely moderate instincts, but also are pretty cowardly and fearful of putting their money where their mouth is. We’ll basically just have to wait and see.
January 12th, 2009 at 7:27 pm
His dishonest campaign against Kucinich back in the day more or less proved that, and the fact he sided with the GOP on every single major thing.
January 13th, 2009 at 6:33 am
Zaid, it isn’t going to happen. Dennis cannot win statewide in any real contest. And running a dishonest campaign doesn’t really prove anything about an individual’s ideology, it speaks to their character.
But Democrats have plenty of potential candidates. Brien Jackson had a pretty decent analysis of them at his link, though he leaves out Rep. Sutton and Mayors Coleman, Jackson, and Mallory. Rep. Sutton hasn’t been in Congress too long, but I don’t that is that big of a problem in the general election. I don’t know how the big-city mayors would play in the rest of the state, but they would start out with large constituencies.
I don’t think Rob Portman should be considered a quasi-incumbent, though. He may have money and national party support, but he isn’t really better known than his prospective opponents. Also, what would his campaign be be about? Will he pledge to do for Ohio in the Senate what he did for the Bush administration’s budget? Is the Bush administration really the best place to recruit candidates?
Voinovich, I imagine, will be mostly cooperative for his remaining time in the Senate. He doesn’t want to be remembered as an obstructionist and he has moderate impulses. On budget and spending issues, though, I don’t think he is a safe bet.
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