
One interesting issue in the current crisis is how come Hezbollah hasn’t acted aggressively to start up a second front in the north while the IDF is conducting major operations in Gaza. Abu Muquwama has some plausible sounding speculations about this. One could, I think, probably construct other scenarios. Part of the reason is almost certainly just status quo bias and inertia — on any given day, Hezbollah has a strong presumption against undertaking a dramatic escalation of the conflict with Israel.
But note that while one can adduce all kinds of reasons to explain Hezbollah’s actions, none of them are consistent with the (apparently popular in Israel as well as among US neocons) line of thinking which holds that both Hamas and Hezbollah are nothing more than puppets of Iran and extensions of Tehran’s relentless drive to eradicate Israel.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
Reminds me of the Cold War thinking that postulated a monolithic “Communist Bloc” when there was no such thing. Not surprising, because neocons are essentially neo-cold-warriors.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:10 pm
Despite the parody of the, Hamas, and especially Hezb’allah are sophisticated political organizations that conduct enormous calculation in their actions.
If I had to guess, they’re not intervening because they’re seeing how little restraint Israel is showing in Gaza and that they probably could not withstand the same amount of firepower being thrown at them without heavy casualties. Israel is in “Make it look like we’re tough before our big election” mode, and I don’t know if anyone wants to mess with them right now.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
Now the Israeli army has killed more Israeli than Hamas since the massacre started:
Israel should carpet-bomb Tel-Aviv in retaliation.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
I hear that every Israeli has to serve in the IDF. If we use Israel’s rational for bombing the UN school, that obviously means all of them are potentially soldiers who would one day bomb their own soldiers…
…MY GOD THE ONLY WAY TO STOP THE THREAT OF ISRAEL BEING WIPED OUT IS TO WIPE OUT ISRAEL.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
Re Ziad
Actually, Israel is showing considerable restraint in the Gaza operation. They have refrained from imposing Hama Rules on that area. Remembering the 20,000+ dead in two days in Hama in 1982, would Mr. Ziad like to take a guess as to what the Gazan casualties would be if they did? And to answer Mr. Ziads’ question on a previous thread relative to the use of nuclear weapons against Gaza, since artillery fire would be just as effective, why use nukes.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
This really is only a question if one lives in a comic book world, where there’s a ‘Superman Revenge Squad’ that meets regularly in a mountain carved in the shape of Dr. Evil’s head.
Seriously.
Hezbollah is a Shiite organization based in Lebanon, involved in Lebanese politics and representing the indgenous shiite population of southern lebanon.
Hezbollah’s problem with Israel stems from Israel’s 18 year occupation from 1982 to 2000, Israel’s retention of Shabaa farms border strip, approximately half a million Israeli mines carefully laid in minefields all over south Lebanon which regularly blow the legs off of children, and various Israeli border incursions ranging from overflights, air raids, violations of airspace, ground border incursions, potshots, etc. etc. None of which are flaring up right now.
In addition, there is the little matter of border peacekeepers from the UN who secure the border against both Israeli and Hezbollah.
Hamas is a fundamentalist Sunni organization that considers Shiites as apostate dogs. It’s not like they have joint ‘Taco Nights’ together with Hezbollah.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
Re why oh why
Massacre? Mr. why oh why has not the least conception as to what a massacre looks like. I suggest he consult references about what happened in the Syrian City of Hama in 1982. Now there’s a massacre!
January 6th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
“Actually, Israel is showing considerable restraint in the Gaza operation.”
Yup the starved and bombed Palestinians surely are thankful Israel hasn’t nuked them yet.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
SLC is quite correct. Israel has no stomach for Hama rules. Israeli’s would rather just have the Gazans slowly starve to death. They’d just prefer they do it more quietly.
Okay, that’s overstated. But really, SLC, your histrionic approach really invites that sort of thing.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:25 pm
“Massacre? Mr. why oh why has not the least conception as to what a massacre looks like. I suggest he consult references about what happened in the Syrian City of Hama in 1982. Now there’s a massacre!”
Why are you Straw Man-ing so much? No one here is even bringing up Syria, that has nothing to do with it…
Why don’t we start saying everyone in this conflict is right and uses restraint because none of them are doing what’s happening in Darfur? It’s just as absurd!
January 6th, 2009 at 5:25 pm
SLC is correct. Under the new standards, if you kill fewer people than a famed slaughter by a Syrian tyrant, it means you’re showing remarkable restraint.
Which is of course why Hamas acts with such remarkable, admirable restraint with regard to Israeli civilians, of whom they kill very, very few. Surely Hamas must rival Israel and the United States in Iraq for the annual “Admirable Restraint” award.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Perhaps Hizbollah examined the public relations fallout of their own war with Israel, and realized that opposition to Israel is more effective to the extent that Israel’s opponents are seen as victims and defenders of their homes against aggression, rather than aggressors themselves. Israel’s massive bombing campaign in Lebanon and Israeli casualties taken in their incursion on the ground against stout Hizbollah militia? Victories for Hizbollah. Rocket attacks against Israeli civilians, and border raids kidnapping Israeli soldiers in Israeli territory? Losses for Hizbollah.
So why shoot Israel in the head when it is shooting itself in the foot? Hizbollah can just sit back, watch the massive body count disparity pileup, watch Israelis blast schools and hospitals and women and children, help the world recall similar depravities on Lebanese territory in 2006, and laugh at Israeli strategic stupidity.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Re Ziad
Ah Mr. Ziad. As I stated, Israel hasn’t imposed Hama Rules either, which would only require artillery fire. Hafez Assad didn’t need nukes to kill 20,000 people in two days.
Re skeptic
I don’t speak for the Government of Israel or its inhabitants as I don’t live there and have, in fact, never been there, but I suspect that that government would perfectly happy to live and let live with the folks in Gaza if the latter would do the same. It should be quite clear after the withdrawal from Gaza in 2005 that Israel has no territorial ambitions there. On a previous thread, I proposed that the Government of Israel raise the blockade of Gaza in return for positive actions of the government there to stop all hostile acts against Israel, including arms smuggling and the return of the kidnapped soldier. If the folks currently running Gaza were interested in the welfare of their constituents, which they do not seem to be, they would accept such a deal as it would be in their best interest.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:39 pm
None of us here are defending Hama or Hafez Assad because they aren’t even being discussed.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:42 pm
Re El Cid
Hamas isn’t killing many Israelis because they currently lack the capacity to do so. Israel has the capacity to kill the entire population of Gaza if they were inclined. If Hamas had that capacity, they wouldn’t hesitate for a microsecond to use it.
Re Dan Kervick
Apparently, Mr. Kervick thinks that Israel should just stand around picking their collective noses and take it. I suspect that if Qassems were falling around Mr. Kervicks’ house, he would not be inclined to stand around picking his nose and take it.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
I’m sorry, SLC, but what withdrawal from Gaza are you referring to? Israel retained control of all of Gaza’s borders and airspace.
It’s nice to see that you acknowledge that you have no evidence whatsoever to support your proposition that Israel is run by a coalition of carebears.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:44 pm
I suspect that that government would perfectly happy to live and let live with the folks in Gaza if the latter would do the same.
You mean let them starve to death in a prison area, with all its infrastructure destroyed and no control of its borders.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:45 pm
Israel has the capacity to kill the entire population of Gaza if they were inclined. If Hamas had that capacity, they wouldn’t hesitate for a microsecond to use it.
You’ve lost me. Why would Hamas want to kill the entire population of gaza in a microsecond?
January 6th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
Re skeptic
You’ve lost me. Why would Hamas want to kill the entire population of gaza in a microsecond?
I’ll give Mr. skeptic the benefit of the doubt and assume that he was being snarky. Of course, Hamas would not hesitate for a microsecond in killing everybody in Israel if they had the power to do so.
Re why oh why
This was not the condition of the Gaza Strip when Israel withdrew its settlements in 2005. The authorities there had every opportunity to make something of the place but preferred to carry on their war against Israel and the population of Gaza be damned.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:54 pm
The first commenter on that blog I think answered the question. Despite the consensus view that Israel lost its war against Hezbollah in 2006, Hezbollah hasn’t launched one rocket against Israel since then. If that’s the consequence of defeat, then Israel could use a similar defeat against Hamas.
January 6th, 2009 at 6:01 pm
SLC: I’m glad we agree that Hamas is demonstrating remarkable and admirable restraint in its attacks on Israeli civilians.
January 6th, 2009 at 6:03 pm
Re El Cid
Hamas isn’t showing any restraint. They don’t have the military capacity to do more. I know that Mr. El Cid wishes they had more so that more Israels could be killed but, hey, that’s the way the cookie crumbles.
January 6th, 2009 at 6:04 pm
This was not the condition of the Gaza Strip when Israel withdrew its settlements in 2005. The authorities there had every opportunity to make something of the place but preferred to carry on their war against Israel and the population of Gaza be damned.
No, Gaza was placed under total embargo immediately. Either you don’t know what you are talking about, or you’re lying.
January 6th, 2009 at 6:11 pm
SLC is making all sorts of fanciful allegations on what Hamas would do if they were magically more powerful, and also engaging in his weird sexual fetish of imagining that other people want Israelis dead (it makes the climax stronger when screaming “Hama Rules!”), but again, the reality is that if you look at the numbers, Hamas is showing remarkable and admirable restraint in its infliction of civilian Israeli casualties.
January 6th, 2009 at 6:12 pm
Ahh, SLC, you’ve noticed! There are apparently some faculties rolling around in your noggin at all.
So, in your world view, Israel, a place you don’t live in, have never been to, and for which you have no more information than whatever propaganda meets your prejudices, is a land of superhumanly tolerant saints.
Whilst Hamas is an organization of dark satanic vipers from the very bowels of hell itself.
But there’s a problem with your worldview. Surely if Hamas is such a nest of black, subhuman hellspawn dedicated to genocide in a microsecond, if they’re so unrestrainedly and unrelievably diabolical… why shouldn’t Israel apply Hama rules? Wouldn’t it be better for the saintly and virtuous Israelis to morally and virtuously extirpate the Hamas who are clearly more virus than human?
January 6th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
Re Why oh why
The Gaza Strip was blockaded because, no sooner did Israel withdraw, then the Qassems began from the area formerly occupied.
January 6th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
Fred says this is about stopping rockets from Hamas. But the rockets were already stopped by a truce that Israel broke.
True, Palestinian Islamic Jihad continued to fire at Israel.
July – 1 rocket
August – 8 rockets
September – 1 rocket
October – 1 rocket
January 6th, 2009 at 6:15 pm
That Hezbollah is sitting this out is not surprising. Hezbollah is a Lebanese group whose main concern is its position in Lebanese politics. It got about as much boost as it could from opposing Israel in 2006, what more would it gain by joining in now.
The simplemindedness involved in thinking Hezbollah would naturally join Hamas involves the silliness that Yglesias points to of thinking that Hamas and Hezbollah work for Iran (or act as their cats paw as one simpleminded right wing writer put it) but also the silliness that Hamas and Hezbollah define themselves in terms of their attitude towards the Israelis rather than their attitudes towards the Palestinians and Lebanese respectively.
January 6th, 2009 at 6:17 pm
Did Hamas open up a second front during Israel’s 2006 invasion of Lebanon?
January 6th, 2009 at 6:18 pm
Because Israel only has two settings. Nose picking, and shock and awe. Also, since I was against the Iraq war, that means that I love Saddam Hussein and want to have his babies.
January 6th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
You could rape a 12 year old Palestinian girl, shoot her family, and light her dog on fire and SLC would call it restraint.
He’s a racist and a jewish supremacist. There’s nothing more to him than that, just a 100% evil scumbag. Why even bother arguing with a man like that? Argue against him, sure. But don’t argue with him, in a sane country he’d be institutionalized.
January 6th, 2009 at 6:24 pm
Re Skeptic
No Mr. Skeptic, Israel is hardly a land of selfless saints or perfect human beings. The only possibly perfect human being in all of history who ever lived came to a bad end in Palestine. However, in comparison to its neighbors, Israel is a model of restraint and compassion. It compares more then favorably with Hafaz Assad at Hama and King Hussein in Black Septenber. Israel doesn’t apply Hama rules because its Government is weak and ineffectual.
January 6th, 2009 at 6:27 pm
Re soullite
And Mr. soullite would cheerfully apply the Eichmann treatment to everybody in Israel, if he had the power to do so. Well Mr. soullite, you ain’t going to get the power and you ain’t going to accomplish your wet dream.
January 6th, 2009 at 6:31 pm
SLC,
While such a fate would be entirely too kind, I hope and pray that you die horribly in a fire (in hideous, undescribable agony) and burn in the fires of hell for all eternity.
January 6th, 2009 at 6:32 pm
So, SLC, answer the question… what’s wrong with genocide? Why shouldn’t Israel commit genocide upon Hamas and Gaza?
You’ve painted the picture in such utterly one sided black and white terms, surely you must be willing to follow your own logic to the end? And if you are unwilling to acknowledge or deal with the consequence… perhaps you need to revisit your thinking?
Actually, I’m not sure that you won’t go there. So far, the only flaw that you seem to acknowledge on Israel’s side is that they are insufficiently ruthless.
Israel doesn’t apply Hama rules because its Government is weak and ineffectual.
January 6th, 2009 at 6:33 pm
soullite,
You are far, far to kind to the baby killing monster SLC.
In a sane country he would be shot in the back of the head and buried in a shallow grave.
January 6th, 2009 at 6:35 pm
Skeptic,
You haven’t been reading the monster genocidal baby killer SLC very carefully, have you? He finds nothing wrong with genocide against the Palestinians, and has explicitly advocated the same on many, many occassions.
January 6th, 2009 at 6:58 pm
Re Voice of Reason
1. Gee, I’m a baby killing monster. Mehinks Mr. Reason is projecting.
2. So Mr. Reason thinks that an Eichmann solution for Israelis is too kind. I have a flash for Mr. Reason. Mr. Eichmann ended up at the end of a rope.
January 6th, 2009 at 7:08 pm
The spat with Hezbollah is pencilled in for next November. Or perhaps sooner, should the party with the most Knesset seats need some grease for the wheels of coalition-forming.
It’s like the cartoon with the sheepdog and the wolf.
As for SLC, he doesn’t believe any of this shit. He’s a parody Kahanist, and he’s wanking with one hand while munching down a bacon sarnie held in the other.
January 6th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
It should be noted as one of those details of reality that after Israel began its bombing, Hamas began firing rockets with more range than they had before Israel’s bombings. Obviously they could have maximized Israeli deaths by firing their better rockets before Israel’s response to the lesser rockets.
So for whatever reason, Hamas did show restraint before the Israeli response. Of course the same thing happened with Hezbollah in 2006. The claim was that they were firing discriminately, but only after the Israeli response did they start firing the more deadly rockets.
There are a number of strategic explanations that have nothing to do with concern for Israeli life. But the idea that the Palestinians show no restraint is one of these claims people on the right make repeatedly and turn out to be wrong repeatedly. (Remember when Arafat was doing nothing to reign in violence and how Sharon was going to take over that obligation from him. The result was that Israeli deaths shot up as high as they have ever been from terrorism.)
January 6th, 2009 at 7:19 pm
SLC,
Huh? Where did that come from? I think an “Eichmann” solution would be too kind for YOU; I said nothing regarding the Israelis generally. The victims of the Holocaust were innocents, you are not. Talk about projection. You’re the Eichmann in this scenario. No; really you are the Himmler or Hitler in this scenario (Eichman was bad enough and deserved his fate, but I am sure that you will agree that the moral culpability of a Himmler or Hitler was even higher.)
Burn in hell, monster. Burn in hell.
January 6th, 2009 at 7:21 pm
Despite the consensus view that Israel lost its war against Hezbollah in 2006, Hezbollah hasn’t launched one rocket against Israel since then.
If you assume that Hezbollah’s ultimate goal was to launch rockets at Israel, maybe.
OTOH, if you assume that Hezbollah’s goal was to increase it’s political power base, they succeeded extremely well. They became far more popular and powerful within Lebanon itself and the sitting government was discredited for its inability to protect the country from foreign attack. As an added bonus from Hezbollah’s view, the attempts by the U.S. to sideline militants by fostering a moderate Lebanese government were ruined, since the U.S. was unwilling to intervene in any way at their time of need.
January 6th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
Here’s why SLC is such a douche: MY just poked THE hole in the neo-con conception of Mideast policy, but SLC wants to bring up unrelated crap.
Seriously, we want to go to war with Iran because Iran poses a grave threat to Israel. They pose a grave threat to Israel because they’re involved in a proxy war with Israel. If they develop nuclear capabilities then they will immediately start a hot war.
Except Hezbollah and Hamas aren’t acting in conjunction, because they’re both independent actors who are nothing more than clients and allies of Iran. So, we have nothing real to fear from a nuclear Iran.
January 6th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
Have there been any other Israeli military actions across the Lebanon border since 2006?
January 6th, 2009 at 7:41 pm
No, SLC shouldn’t be shot in the back of the head and buried in a shallow grave.
He should be shot in the elbows, knees, groin and stomach, and left to rot in the nearest sewer.
Along with the rest of his Zionist scumbag associates over at AIPAC.
January 6th, 2009 at 7:44 pm
Actually, El Cid, while you’re correct that Israel has not engaged in direct military action against Lebanon since 2006, it HAS violated the border numerous times both in the air and on the ground.
And the UN peace keepers haven’t been happy about it, and have called Israel on it several times. In at least one case, they came close to firing on Israeli aircraft.
Hizballah, however, has done nothing to provoke further Israeli aggression. They have been consolidating their political gains, rebuilding their fortifications in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, and re-stocking their rocket arsenal in readiness for the next Israeli aggression, which is inevitable.
January 6th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
http://jta.org/news/article/2009/01/06/1002014/dems-plan-pro-israel-resolution
So the whole world is condemning what’s happening and the Democrats are using their time to pass a resolution egging the violence on?
I hate to say it,
but,
FUCK THESE PEOPLE.
January 6th, 2009 at 8:12 pm
Re Richard Steven Hack
Ex-con Mr. Hack who advocates assassinating police officers is in reality a yellow bellied, sap sucking coward with a yellow stripe down is back a foot wide. When he had the opportunity to assassinate some police officers who were about to arrest him after his latest bank robbing escapade, he instead handed over his gun and meekly surrendered. His motto is, do as I say, not as I do.
Re Voice of Reason
As an atheist, I don’t believe in hell.
January 6th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
Re pseudonyous in nc
Actually I’m not much of a bacon eater. Much prefer Ben and Jerrys ice cream.
January 6th, 2009 at 8:26 pm
SLC’s real name is: Stuart Louis Cushman. And, he’s a registered sex offender in Maryland and Delaware. He left a 3 year old shiksa in a ditch outside Annapolis with severe genital injuries.
Sgt. Dominic LaRock
Maryland State Police
Annapolis, Maryland
January 6th, 2009 at 9:53 pm
I love this place.
Matt, don’t ever get rid of your comments. I’ll never find another blog where the death threats make me giggle.
January 6th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
Israel is an ally of the United States. Hamas has few if any allies. It’s David against Goliath. World opinion is overwhelmingly in favorite of David, but Israel doesn’t see this…
January 6th, 2009 at 10:53 pm
The previous posts certainly constitute a thoughtful analysis germane to the question of why Hezbollah hasn’t attacked.
January 6th, 2009 at 10:58 pm
Because Israel is not Hafez Assad, or something.
January 7th, 2009 at 12:00 am
In SLC’s world, Israel doesn’t apply “Hama Rules” because they are forced to fight with one hand behind their back. What, exactly, is forcing them to do this is of course not so clear, but it’s probably supposed to be some combination of world anti-Israel opinion and the native moral superiority of Israel.
January 7th, 2009 at 12:10 am
Can someone explain to me where the phrase Juicebox Mafia comes from exactly? I know who made it and what it describes, but what kind of name is that? Is he trying to say that Matt and Ezra like go around beating people up if they don’t join their Capri Sun cartel?
January 7th, 2009 at 12:14 am
Israel is probably on the back burner for Teheran with sub-$50 oil. Iran’s economy is sucking wind now, and the last thing it needs is to be writing more checks to Hez and Ham.
January 7th, 2009 at 12:16 am
BTW, what’s with the “Heil Hitler” salutes by the Hezbollah troops? Imitation as the sincerest form of flattery?
January 7th, 2009 at 1:00 am
Isn’t that a common military salute
January 7th, 2009 at 2:07 am
The first reason abu muqawama mentions is essentially what Yglesias excoriated Michael Goldfarb for a couple days ago–that inflicting a lot of suffering on innocent people can effectively deter future aggression.
January 7th, 2009 at 3:19 am
So the logic of suicide bombings?
January 7th, 2009 at 6:25 am
Re cls
Mr. cls has to realize that the Government of Israel does nothing without the permission of the President of the United States. Prime Minister Olmert doesn’t go to the mens’ room without getting Bushes’ permission and Livni/Netanyehu won’t go there without Obamas’ permission.
January 7th, 2009 at 7:22 am
from nytimes: “The army and government have also made it clear that Palestinian civilians will die in this war, because of the way Hamas has chosen to fight it from within the densely populated urban centers of Gaza.”
That’s some pretty absurd rationale.
January 7th, 2009 at 8:27 am
It may be that Israel’s policy of collective punishment on display in the 2006 Lebanese War has now resulted in constraints on Hezbollah; the rest of Lebanon does not want to go there again.
January 7th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
Hizballah quite clearly has no brief to start a hot war with Israel over the Palestinian situation which will damage it’s core constituency in Lebanon.
The 2006 conflict started when Hizballah kidnapped two Israel soldiers – intending to use them for negotiations to release Lebanese prisoners. Israel, however, had been planning a war with Lebanon for nearly a year before, and saw this as an excuse to initiate that war. I believe Nasrallah explicitly stated later that had they known Israel was going to start a war over the incident, they would not have kidnapped those two soldiers.
As it turns out, Hizballah benefited enormously from Israel’s rather pathetic failure to damage them and the huge negative reaction from the world to Israel’s brutal air bombardment of the rest of Lebanon.
So it’s not surprising that Hizballah is not going to start launching rockets into Israel at this point. It might try to use the circumstances to kidnap some more Israeli soldiers on the border, but even that’s not clear.
At some point, Hizballah will balance its political gains in Lebanon with its need to strike back at Israel over the Mughniyah assassination. At that point, Israel can decide whether it wants to start another war with Lebanon.
January 7th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
Burn in hell, monster. Burn in hell.
That’s it — I sentence everyone on the thread Vahalla, where we can fight this out every day, leave each other wounded in ditches to die, rise from the battlefield in the evening healed of our wounds, and then spent the rest of the night feasting.
Of course, an eternity spent with SLC would be hell in itself.
January 7th, 2009 at 11:17 pm
The basic rule of morality of war: the number of atrocities you commit is divided by the number of atrocities you could commit — but you did not! If we invert the atrocity coefficient, we get nobility coefficient.
E.g. late Asad got nobility coefficient of 10-20 for massacre in Hamas (where probably 10-20 times more folks were not masscred than those who were). In the last Lebanon war, Hezbollah had nobility coefficient close to 1, it is hard to see how they could kill more Israelis than they did. By the way of contrast, Israel cold use nukes and kill ca. 1000 more times Lebanese that it did, for a nobility coefficient of ca. 1000. Now, again, the proportion is similar.
It must be observed that the nobility coefficient jumps enormously for the possessors of nukes. Moreover, the gullible public attributes enormous killing potential even to very crappy nukes like those in possession of Pakistan and India. This explains in part the attraction of nuclear power.
The notion of nobility coefficient is suspended whenever Russia is involved. Georgia killed quite a bit more Russians than Hamas killed Israelis, and Russian killed quite a few less Georgians than Israeli killed Gazans, and hey! they could make a parking lot out of Georgia, which they did not! But no cigar.
January 8th, 2009 at 3:28 am
late night update: arf arf arf arf arf!
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