The Deal with Judd
By Brian Beutler
So it looks like this is really about to happen. Here are my original thoughts on the move, but Dylan Matthews, a native New Hampshirean, insists that his Democratic governor, John Lynch, has deeply ingrained Broderish tendencies, and will appoint a Republican to replace Gregg, keeping the Democratic caucus one member shy of the elusive (and over-hyped) 60-vote majority.
Surely, I thought, there’s no way Obama would’ve made this move this without first seeking an assurance from Lynch that he’d appoint a Democrat to the seat. And perhaps Dylan’s wrong and he did. But there are a couple of other possibilities. One is that this is all a major bluff, and Obama’s buying Gregg’s vote on the stimulus by helping him scare Republicans in to thinking they might lose his seat.
The other is a bit more complicated. The Senate’s taking up the stimulus package on Monday, and a final vote should come shortly thereafter. Right now, 58 of the 99 seated members of the Senate are Democrats. Assuming Democratic unanimity (a big assumption) that means they need two Republicans to defect to get the stimulus past a cloture vote. If Gregg’s seat is vacant, they only need one. If Gregg’s seat is filled by somebody (Democrat or Republican) on strict orders to vote for it, they still only need one. It’s impossible to know exactly what’s going on, but it’s pretty clear that this whole charade is really about a single vote. And that means Obama the Democrats are at least somewhat worried that this thing really might not pass.
55 Responses to “The Deal with Judd”
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January 31st, 2009 at 2:14 pm
I have trouble believing the GOP would be crazy enough to FILIBUSTER the stimulus bill. There’s no percentage in that at all. But letting it pass over howls of protest lets them keep pointing out to America how things aren’t getting better fast enough.
January 31st, 2009 at 2:18 pm
Right now, 58 of the 99 seated members of the Senate are Democrats. Assuming Democratic unanimity (a big assumption) that means they need two Republicans to defect to get the stimulus past a cloture vote.
Surely the passage of a stimulus bill isn’t vulnerable to a filibuster, is it? Are Republicans really that stupid and reckless? If the stimulus package is going to be hard to pass — given the fact that the sky is falling all around us — we might as well forget about healthcare reform. Also, what I’ve been reading this morning jives with what Dylan Matthews reports: Gregg’s replacement will be a Republican. Although I’d much prefer a Democrat to take the seat, at least that means the Democrats should have a weaker opponent in NH for the next contest.
January 31st, 2009 at 2:20 pm
God if it’s really that impossible to get republican votes they really ought to put in some more democratic priorities like more health care funding — there should be some assistance for people who have to make COBRA payments to keep their health care while on unemployment, for example. And there should be a lot more for transportation and green energy (I’d like to see 50 billion for green energy at least)
January 31st, 2009 at 2:21 pm
What the commenters said above. This would be an absurd sop to the GOP, especially after getting shat on (as we knew would happen), to no productive purpose. Horrible — simply horrible.
And we don’t need that seat in 2010 — we’ll win enough in the other races.
January 31st, 2009 at 2:23 pm
There’s no way Gregg’s seat is going to be filled by anybody but Gregg come Monday. If he gets the appointment, he still needs Senate confirmation, which will take some time, and he doesn’t have to resign from Congress until he actually has an Executive Branch job.
January 31st, 2009 at 2:36 pm
Although if he does immediately resign prior to being confirmed by the Senate, there will be only 98 Senators. I believe Nate had a post a while back pointing out that when there are 98 Senators, the threshold for cloture is only 59. So Gregg’s resigning is actually just as effective, as far as cloture goes, as his voting for it — only one Republican defection is needed.
January 31st, 2009 at 2:37 pm
http://www.thinkprogress.org/2009/01/30/gop-filibuster-recovery
January 31st, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Or, you know, maybe he just likes Judd Gregg and thinks he’d be a decent fill for a post that Yglesias has (persuasively) argued might as well be abolished.
January 31st, 2009 at 2:39 pm
Yes, Milind has it.
January 31st, 2009 at 2:50 pm
Senate Republicans are always more reasonable than House Republicans. There is no way they filibuster the stimulus.
Think back to the campaign – Barack Obama doesn’t run around and do crazy stuff for the purpose of a short-term objective.
January 31st, 2009 at 2:50 pm
And I’d add that while I’m sure there is vote-counting going on, the notion that Obama is really worried about one vote in the Senate is nutty- he’s going to get the votes; if there is a little bit of horse-trading here or there to get it he doesn’t care, and if the Senate GOP (insanely, unlikely) follows the house and votes against it en masse despite the horse-trading, he’ll just use that to completely smash their heads in in 2010. So to think he’s nominating Gregg over one vote on one bill is crazy.
Note that emphasized bit in particular: remember from the campaign that the President, unlike the media (and apparently much of the blogosphere) is very comfortable “losing” a media cycle or two (or I predict now a vote or two) if it suits his longer-term goals. So, again, thinking that he’s picking Gregg to win one vote- or one media cycle- is nutty.
January 31st, 2009 at 2:52 pm
Is it possible that this is another example of Obama’s sense of bipartisanship: give another major (?) appointment to a republican, and knowingly allow a republican to replace him in the Senate, thus showing that party identification means less to Obama than cooperation. As where other acts of this kind look good to the public (e.g., inviting House members over for tea and crumpets), this could hold more sway to those inside the building (imagine the argument, “I gave your party a Senate seat, now you should give me your support”).
January 31st, 2009 at 2:57 pm
To continue on Milind- hasn’t one Republican (Collins or Snowe, I always get them confused) already said they’re going to vote for the stimulus? I would also expect a few others- Specter, Voinovich, the other one from Maine- to vote for cloture, at least. So if Gregg vacates his seat, they’re already at 59, and the Republicans can go sit in the corner.
(Though if the Senate is really trying to STOP the stimulus instead of just detach themselves from it, they REALLY missed the House’s memo…)
Another political benefit to Gregg- if the economic team is suddenly bipartisan, it does become a LITTLE harder to take it all out on the Dems if the stimulus doesn’t work. Not impossible by any means, but harder.
The bottom line, though, is Obama probably just likes Gregg (For some reason). That’s my thing with Obama- his political instincts are great, he’s gonna push his goals through- I just wonder if all of his goals are worthy.
January 31st, 2009 at 3:00 pm
“it’s pretty clear that this whole charade is really about a single vote. And that means Obama the Democrats are at least somewhat worried that this thing really might not pass.”
While this is certain a plausible interpretation of what is going on, I don’t think it’s clear right now that this is all about cloture on the stimulus bill.
January 31st, 2009 at 3:04 pm
I just wonder if all of his goals are worthy.
They of course won’t all be worthy to you, or to anyone else. Lots of folks would do well not to let perfection be the enemy of the good, though. Not to say people shouldn’t be demanding, but to read lots of the lefty blogosphere you’d think this presidency was already a failure because he didn’t end the recession in week one and personally slay every Republican on Capitol Hill while he was at it.
January 31st, 2009 at 3:11 pm
“Senate Republicans are always more reasonable than House Republicans. There is no way they filibuster the stimulus.”
I can actually see some wires getting crossed- remember, the House Republicans weren’t under any illusion that they could STOP the bill, they just wanted to make it clear it wasn’t a REPUBLICAN bill. But the Republican leadership is so fakakta, I can see McConnell thinking he now needs to STOP it.
But between the ladies of Maine, the Gregg gambit, the ads, OFA, and- seriously, this is going to happen sooner or later- the fact that Reid can end the “procedural filibuster” and force the Republicans to mount a TRUE filibuster at any time- Obama’s going to get the one or two votes he needs.
January 31st, 2009 at 3:12 pm
What luis said.
Obama looks several moves ahead, while the blogosphere and cable nooz lurch from one big story to the next, living in the eternal now. You know, like the John McCain throughout 2008.
January 31st, 2009 at 3:14 pm
Colby,
I can see McConnell thinking he wants to stop it, too, but Senate Republicans don’t take marching orders from the leadership the way House Republicans do.
January 31st, 2009 at 3:21 pm
Ok, if the GOP does mount a filibuster, Obama and Senate Democrats should use the (legitimate IMHO) excuse of “national economic emergency” to dump the infernal, undemocratic filibuster once and for all. Let the Republicans sleep in a bed of their own making.
January 31st, 2009 at 3:27 pm
“They of course won’t all be worthy to you, or to anyone else. Lots of folks would do well not to let perfection be the enemy of the good, though. Not to say people shouldn’t be demanding, but to read lots of the lefty blogosphere you’d think this presidency was already a failure because he didn’t end the recession in week one and personally slay every Republican on Capitol Hill while he was at it.”
I agree with all of this, actually, especially that certain blogs are already freaking out over nothing. And I’ll stack my Obama man-crush up against anyone else’s, I’m just saying, I really doubt he’s going to have too much trouble passing his bills, so the real action is in making sure his bills are good.
For example, I don’t think he got suckered in making the stimulus bill too “moderate” right off the bat- I think the bill was pretty close to exactly what he WANTED it to look like. And he got it passed pretty close to that, too. So the question is if the bill was good enough the way Obama wrote it.
Opinions on that are, of course, going to differ. Moreover, the biggest question with this bill is “Will it work?” and none of us know that. I have no clue, I just know that so far, his stimulus plan is my least favorite part of his Presidency (which really doesn’t say much, as I’ve loved just about everything else).
January 31st, 2009 at 3:28 pm
Joe- good point, especially with only 41 seats and 4+ retirements. At this point, I can think of a few Senate Republicans who have more allegience to Obama than McConnell.
January 31st, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Senate Republicans don’t take marching orders from the leadership the way House Republicans do.
Senate Republicans have about the same discipline as House Democrats.
Now, if McConnell thinks he can dick about with the same kind of news-cycle theatricality that the House GOP tried — or perhaps let the emerging dick posse of Cornyn/DeMint/Vitter have a go, with the 2010 elections on their mind — let’s see how that plays out.
January 31st, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Moreover, the biggest question with this bill is “Will it work?” and none of us know that. I have no clue, I just know that so far, his stimulus plan is my least favorite part of his Presidency (which really doesn’t say much, as I’ve loved just about everything else).
Sure; I share the misgivings, though they are tempered by a lot of factors- his judgment has been impeccable in the last year+; he’s surrounded by the brightest minds he can find; he’s facing real constraints (e.g., the ’shovel ready’ problem); and he’s facing a problem no one has ever really succesfully solved before in all of history. I wish others (particularly those who might actually influence the broader discourse, like Yglesias) would take a deep breath and cut him a little slack, or at the very least, not get quite so panicy about it.
January 31st, 2009 at 3:44 pm
And I’ll stack my Obama man-crush up against anyone else’s…
My man-crush is on AFL-CIO Secretary-Treasurer Richard Trumka.
He’s so beefy.
January 31st, 2009 at 4:16 pm
joe: dude, he’s got a moustache. That kills the man-crush just as certainly as… well, as a woman with a moustache.
January 31st, 2009 at 4:36 pm
has Franken been officially seated yet? There’s only 56 democrats (+Sanders and Lieberman) if he’s not, right?
January 31st, 2009 at 4:36 pm
nevermind Beutler answered that question in his post. (”58 of 99 seated senators”)
January 31st, 2009 at 4:40 pm
joe-
The walrus was Paul
Not all walruses (walrii?) are the cute Beatle.
January 31st, 2009 at 6:00 pm
I think Sen. Gregg just knows he is vulnerable. Matt’s focus is too short term. NH has started to trend left, and Gregg knows that he could face an brutal reelection campaign (which has not happened to him yet) for 2010. Even if he were to support Obama on every bill, he would still face the (R) after his name on election. Given that Republicans are beholden to Palin and Limbaugh, whereas Gregg is an Exeter and Columbia grad, my money is that he does not want to be associated with these names come reelection season. Better to take a guaranteed four year gig than the possibility of leaving government service in two years.
January 31st, 2009 at 6:24 pm
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: if the GOP wants to filibuster the stimulus, fine–LET THEM FILIBUSTER. Keep the Senate in session twelve hours a day, seven days a week, and let them read the D.C. phone books, cover to cover, into the congressional record. Let that go out on C-SPAN gavel-to-gavel for a few days. Let it go on every cable show and every evening news program. We have the worst economic downturn on our hands since 1929–if that is how the GOP really thinks they want to behave, let them do it. Let them explain it to the public.
Anyone remember what happened the last time those jerks threatened to shut the government down?
Let them do it. But MAKE them do it, Harry–don’t just hold a cloture vote, wring your hands and say, “Woe is me.” Call them on it.
January 31st, 2009 at 6:48 pm
“it’s pretty clear that this whole charade is really about a single vote. And that means Obama the Democrats are at least somewhat worried that this thing really might not pass.”
I don’t think so. I’d imagine it has more to do with payback of sorts. I’d still be very surprised if Gregg is actually appointed, as it looks like everyone is trying to throw up roadblocks to it, even Gregg. As I see it, it’s looks more likely that it’s a trade off for some votes from Gregg. Which is really good for Gregg because:
1. It forces the more conservative members in the caucus to be nice to him, lest he throw the seat to a Democrat.
2. Come time to run for re-election in Obama +10 New Hampshire, Gregg gets to run ads about how his working relationship with Obama is so good he was even considered for the cabinet.
In other words, it throws Gregg a hell of a lifeline in exchange, one imagines, for his support at some key ventures.
January 31st, 2009 at 6:57 pm
Agree with the many above. This was a very poor blog post. Many of the commenters here have a better picture of things than this blog poster.
January 31st, 2009 at 7:03 pm
re Nate@29: I mentioned in the earlier thread that Gregg hasn’t been in a serious race since winning the seat in 1992: he faced Granny D. in 2004 after Burt Cohen’s campaign manager cooked the books. In contrast, Paul Hodes went from losing to Charlie Bass in 2004 to winning in 2006 and getting a healthy victory in 2008.
With Cornyn in charge of the NRSC, you have to wonder if Gregg suspects he’d be squeezed for fundraising for 2010.
January 31st, 2009 at 7:26 pm
“he’s surrounded by the brightest minds he can find”
Luis- again, I agree with you overall, and most of those factors are very real and DO make me inclined to cut him slack. But this one is funny, ’cause honestly, my big problem with the stimulus so far is it smells too much like Larry Summers.
Again, loving everything else Obama’s done, and there’s no doubt Summers knows his shit- I’m just worried.
January 31st, 2009 at 7:49 pm
My prediction: The stimulus bill will pass the Senate easily. The Republican governors are really pissed off at the Congressional Republicans for the unanimous “no” vote and, apparently, at least fifteen Republican congressmen are planning on changing their votes when it comes back from the conference committee. Their excuse? They were rushed into voting no.
January 31st, 2009 at 8:22 pm
Re: there should be some assistance for people who have to make COBRA payments to keep their health care while on unemployment, for example.
There is, but only for people 55 or older (they can stayo n COBRA until they qualify for Medicare and the government will pay some of the premium). I think there’s also a provision allowing the unemployed to qualify for Medicaid, though I think there’s probably a strict family income and asset test for that.
January 31st, 2009 at 8:40 pm
colby: we’re mostly in violent agreement, I’m just sharing for Brian’s and Matt’s sake
Even about Summers- I’ve got my doubts about him like you do, I’m just biting my tongue because I sure as hell don’t have any better ideas as to who should be in that seat. I also think Summers’ apparent skepticism about shovel-readiness of transit options isn’t crazy; projects which have somehow gotten through environmental impact studies and community reviews but which aren’t already well-funded are going to be few and far between, and I’ve got no desire to suspend those rules- my reading of The Power Broker is all too recent for that.
January 31st, 2009 at 9:52 pm
So how much in back taxes did he owe ?
January 31st, 2009 at 11:18 pm
Let them filibuster. Geez, why not? You know, the Civil Rights bill survived a filibuster. The Dems just have to let them do it– but really do it, make them read the phone book and get all hoarse. It won’t last twenty minutes.
Make ‘em do it!
January 31st, 2009 at 11:26 pm
You are just being silly. No president is going to make a cabinet level appointment just to get a single vote on a single bill. That would be stupid.
Monumentally stupid, considering it is a bill that Republicans dearly, dearly want to see passed. It is true that they don’t want to vote for it (and thus be seen as partially responsible), but they definitely want to see it pass — both because they are very afraid of what might happen to the economy if it fails, and because they want to be able to hang it around the necks of the Democrats in 2010 if we are still in recession.
February 1st, 2009 at 1:09 am
There are several things wrong with this post. First of all, the Dems better not get into the same rut of allowing the Republicans to “filibuster” without actually doing so. The era of a cloture vote ending an issue or bill have got to end. The rules need to revert back to what they were: filibustering means speaking endlessly until the other side gives up, or you do. Saying “we might do this if you do something we don’t like” simply cannot be enough anymore. It never, ever should have been. But its especially ridiculous now that Dems are the party in power, and with as large a margin as they have. Ridiculous.
That said, I don’t think this bill will have much trouble passing, Too bad its so much worse of a bill than it needs to be. And too bad that the debate over what might change in it seems to be run by the Repubs, despite their complete lack of public support and credibility. Really, the Democrats are just fucking ridiculous. They’re staggering around, no plan, no strategy, just making shit up as they go along. To hell with all of them.
February 1st, 2009 at 8:03 am
Call the Republican bluff and make them come to the floor and filibuster. Day after day, markets around the world will crash to new lows. It will be great theater that will rebound very badly on the Republicans.
In any event, if it is Warren Rudman, he is as good as a Democrat.
February 1st, 2009 at 9:58 am
Nate Silver suggests a RINO replacement, & I think that would work amazingly well for all of us. She wouldn’t participate in obstructionist filibusters, but she could join the opposition for dumb-ideas pushbacks. In the meantime, a RINO would show how fair-minded Democrats are, & the Republican Whiners Club would look even stupider.
The Constant Weader at http://www.RealityChex.com
February 1st, 2009 at 10:59 am
mmmmm…..i love the smell of foil hats.
yep, if we know anything about Obama, it’s that he’ll make choices that will dramatically effect the remainder of his presidential term on the basis of the desired outcome of a single vote sometime next week.
February 1st, 2009 at 11:33 am
This seems absurd. No way the stimulus bill gets filibustered. It’ll easily get cloture.
February 1st, 2009 at 2:08 pm
Luis- once again, yes.
The “Shovel-ready” qualification is important, and there’s been a LOT of indication that Obama’s going to come back for that other stuff (mass transit, contraception, etc.) soon enough. I just kind of want all of that in the bill now- you never know what the future holds, and I’d rather take the opportunity while we have it. But that’s me, I’m kinda looking for a bill that’s an immediate game-changer. But on an intellectual level, I slow myself down and admit that, yes, we REALLY need to avoid another Robert Moses.
I can think of a couple people I’d rather have in Summers’ seat, though- but that’s probably another conversation.
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