Mind the Gap
The absolutely terrible state of the Wizards has discouraged me form paying much attention to the NBA thus far this season. But it strikes me as noteworthy that this year we’re missing the customary tight race for control of the Western Conference. The Lakers’ five game lead over New Orleans is pretty nice, but actually understates the case. In terms of point differential, the Lakers are 5.9 points per game ahead of the Hornets. That’s quite a bit bigger than the between any other West team and the zero mark. Indeed, it’s almost as big as the gap between the Wizards and an average team.
Consequently, it looks like we should have a pretty boring Western Conference playoffs unless someone manages to shake things up with a key trade. Since there are eight teams of roughly equal quality chasing the seven non-Lakers West playoff slot that will be an interesting race of sorts.
48 Responses to “Mind the Gap”
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January 2nd, 2009 at 10:30 am
“In terms of point differential, the Lakers are 5.9 points per game ahead of the Hornets … Consequently, it looks like we should have a pretty boring Western Conference playoffs unless someone manages to shake things up with a key trade.”
But, of course, that’s a hopelessly poor understanding of things actually work…
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:38 am
The NFL playoffs start tomorrow; so of course we want to talk about the NBA instead.
I do agree with Petey.
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:44 am
Yes Matt if you ignore the fact that LA is 7-1 against its terrible division you might assume their records are drawn from a similar population of opponents.
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:46 am
unless someone manages to shake things up with a key trade
Based on recent NBA history, I think the proper way to look at this is, “unless several enormous trades manage to not involve the Western Conference, it looks like we should have a pretty interesting Western Conference playoffs.”
Also, don’t sleep on Houston. It’s become parody to keep saying, “if they can get(or stay) healthy,” but it’s still true that they could be a devastating team. In a sort of Prior/Woods-Cubs sorta way.
January 2nd, 2009 at 10:52 am
Wow, I didn’t know the Geico Caveman was on the L.A. Lakers. Good for him.
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:03 am
Also, don’t sleep on Houston.
It’s not just injury. You have to hope Artest doesn’t cut a teammate’s head off. Or at least not a starter’s head.
And yes, the Lakers are the class of the West. Cripes.
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:05 am
I feel sure the T-wolves will turn it around. Soon. Like, maybe 2012.
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:06 am
“Also, don’t sleep on Houston. It’s become parody to keep saying, “if they can get(or stay) healthy…”
It’s become enough of a parody that I’ve moved to Phoenix as my dark horse out West. Shaquille is looking spry these days.
Lakers, Spurs, and Hornets are the quality of the conference, but the Suns have potential.
—–
And I know the Eastern Conference is off-topic, but my Pistons are finally starting to get some things together. Dark horse, I know, but don’t sleep on Detroit…
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:10 am
The Eastern Conference playoffs will be fantastic, though. The old West/East thing in reverse.
I don’t care what the Spurs record is now, they’re a championship contender. Like zombies, or cockroaches, they’re hard to put away.
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:19 am
“The Eastern Conference playoffs will be fantastic, though.”
Well, with the news today, the Celtics look a bit weaker.
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:23 am
If the Lakers have a 64.6% chance to beat any given opponent in the playoffs on a per-game basis, that means they have a 50% chance of making it to the finals.
Whether the Western Conference playoffs are interesting has a lot more to do with luck than the Lakers.
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:33 am
If the Lakers have a 64.6% chance to beat any given opponent in the playoffs on a per-game basis…
basketball is not baseball, it’s not a roll of the dice. Dominant teams dominate. Occasionally they get bored during the regular season, but not in the playoffs.
The thing that makes for good basketball playoffs is when there are a couple of dominant teams.
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:41 am
I will continue to sleep on Phoenix. They have two Hall-of-Fame big men and yet an awful defense. Shaq won’t stay “spry” enough to really make anything interesting. I think the last two years speak much more loudly than the last few weeks.
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:45 am
Boston, Cleveland and LAL are the only ones with a real shot. Conventional wisdom happens to be right this year.
And ditto Al, wake me up on Houston after McGrady gets out of the first round, until then I will be sleeping quite peacefully on them.
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:46 am
if by “boring” you mean that it will be the lakers v. someone else, yup. but, if you mean “boring” in that there will be several really good series filled with good, exciting basketball in games that matter, then nope.
January 2nd, 2009 at 12:13 pm
I’ll sleep quite comfortably on both Phoenix and Detroit, thank you. They’re both much worse than they were on Jan. 1, 2008.
I like the Richardson trade, but now Phoenix has traded away the two best defensive players (Bell and Marion) from a team that wasn’t very good defensively to start with. Now they’re just awful. And Shaq at his best is a barely average center and he clashes horribly with Nash and Amare.
I like Cleveland this year. I know the Celtics look great, but the Cavs were real close to beating them last year, and this year’s Cleveland team is much better. Lakers vs Cavs in the finals? Anything could happen there, but again, I like Cleveland’s chances.
January 2nd, 2009 at 12:29 pm
“I’ll sleep quite comfortably on both Phoenix and Detroit, thank you. They’re both much worse than they were on Jan. 1, 2008.”
Dead wrong in both cases.
January 2nd, 2009 at 12:34 pm
“Boston, Cleveland and LAL are the only ones with a real shot.”
Those three teams are obviously dominant right now, but there are another 3 to 5 teams with genuine shots to win the title.
If you go back over the past 10 years of NBA history, you’ll find that teams which were NOT dominant on New Year’s Day have won a surprisingly high percentage of those titles.
—–
“If the Lakers have a 64.6% chance to beat any given opponent in the playoffs on a per-game basis, that means they have a 50% chance of making it to the finals.”
I have no idea where you got that 64.6% number, and I have no idea if your math is correct.
But through methods right or wrong, I’d say your number of a 50% chance of LA coming out of the West is just about correct. Which means the West playoffs ought to be quite interesting.
January 2nd, 2009 at 12:45 pm
OK, Al, Shaq at his best is a good center, offensively, at least. But the odds of Shaq being “at his best” when the team needs it are low, I think. And even if Shaq plays well, Terry Porter has killed that team’s offense and made them even worse on defense. They might get out of the first round but they have no shot in a 7-game series against a good team.
Petey, if you want to insist that the Suns are better than they were at the start of last season, you need to explain away the fact that the old Suns, you know, won more games. Same goes with Detroit. AI just isn’t that good anymore and he doesnt fit on that team. Look what that trade has done to ‘Sheed. I haven’t seen them play much but his typical line is like 10 points, 5 rebounds, 7 3-pt attempts. He’s barely trying.
January 2nd, 2009 at 12:57 pm
I would be more impressed with this if point differential was actually a reliable predictor of who will win the championship.
January 2nd, 2009 at 12:57 pm
“Petey, if you want to insist that the Suns are better than they were at the start of last season, you need to explain away the fact that the old Suns, you know, won more games. Same goes with Detroit.”
Games won in November and December correlates positively with winning championships, but the correlation stops well short of one.
Both the Suns and Pistons have higher ceilings than they did a year ago, even if they simultaneously have a higher chance of mediocrity. But in my world, a higher chance of winning the whole shebang equals “better”.
“I haven’t seen them play much but”
Well, I have.
January 2nd, 2009 at 1:04 pm
“(Rasheed is) barely trying.”
One of the greatest pleasures of the Pistons becoming my “home” team is getting to watch Roscoe on a regular basis. He’s far better than I realized.
Dude is extremely strategic in a very smart way about where he expends his energy, which is a good thing for a 34yo player.
January 2nd, 2009 at 1:20 pm
How could Washington not be worth watching these days? Andre Blatche is starting for them!
As far as teams not to sleep on I’d put Atlanta far higher on the list than Houston.
January 2nd, 2009 at 1:41 pm
‘Sheed has always been “extremely strategic about where he expends his energy,” it just seems like lately that means he’s expending less and less of it.
Poor Petey. It seems like the entire purpose of the NBA for the past few years has been to demonstrate that Iverson is not actually an elite player. For the record, I think AI is better than Andre Miller, but at this stage in his career there’s no way he’s better than Billups. And the Pistons had good chemistry with Chauncey, you can’t blow that up (and replace him with an inferior player) and expect them to keep winning.
January 2nd, 2009 at 1:59 pm
“at this stage in (Iverson’s) career there’s no way he’s better than Billups”
Chauncey is a very nice player, but he can be dealt with by single coverage and Iverson can’t. Without having even one player who could deform defenses, the post-Ben Wallace Pistons were always going to be dead meat against elite teams in the playoffs. With Iverson, they’ve got a genuine chance to win the whole thing.
Over the past twenty seasons, precisely one title has been won by a team that didn’t have even one player who couldn’t be dealt with by single coverage. And FWIW, the most important player on that one black swan team wasn’t Chauncey, despite the Finals MVP.
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Chauncey is a very nice player, but he can be dealt with by single coverage and Iverson can’t.
I think this makes it all the more remarkable that AI can’t seem to make his teams any better. But then again, gosh, it’s almost like there’s more to this game than beating your man off the dribble.
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:28 pm
“I think this makes it all the more remarkable that AI can’t seem to make his teams any better.”
He took a Nuggets team missing their most valuable player other than AI to 50 wins last year.
Folks hated on Kevin Garnett according to the same logic prior to his trade to Boston. Hoops is a team game. It’s hard to do much without help. And Iverson has help this year for the first time since early in his career.
Being able to draw double teams isn’t all that useful unless you have teammates who can punish the opposition for doubling…
January 2nd, 2009 at 2:46 pm
Since the trade, Iverson is scoring 18 a game on 42 percent shooting. Keep that up and you won’t be getting double-teamed for long.
January 2nd, 2009 at 3:09 pm
“Keep that up and you won’t be getting double-teamed for long.”
If I were coaching against Detroit, I’d consider single covering Iverson and living with him winning some games on his own. But in NBA, players always get double coverage for a season or two longer than they deserve. Habits are hard to change, and every team in the league has developed and employed elaborate strategies for “walling off” Iverson ever single the illegal defense rule was abolished.
Shaq got double coverage for two or three years longer than was merited, and it cost Dallas a title and stole one for Miami.
—–
And FWIW, I’d expect Iverson’s mildly lousy true shooting percentage of 53% to improve by a couple of points as the season goes on. When he first arrived in Detroit, they were playing him off the ball as a spot up jump shooter, which is perverse in its stupidity. But they have begun to see the light in terms of his role over the past few weeks.
January 2nd, 2009 at 3:24 pm
He took a Nuggets team missing their most valuable player other than AI to 50 wins last year.
Camby was healthy. Carter and Kleiza improved a lot.
And even though I happen to think Camby, when healthy, is superior to Nene, when healthy, if you call it a fair trade between Camby’s production last season and Nene’s this season (though I wouldn’t) it seems that Billups’ inability to draw double teams doesn’t seem to be hurting Denver too much post-Iverson. In fact, they’re a lot better.
And in the next chapter of Teams That Improve Post-Iverson, I would expect the AI expiring contract to yield improved results for the Pistons after this season!
January 2nd, 2009 at 3:38 pm
“I happen to think Camby, when healthy, is superior to Nene, when healthy…”
…which indicates you are not following the association particularly closely.
“it seems that Billups’ inability to draw double teams doesn’t seem to be hurting Denver too much post-Iverson. In fact, they’re a lot better.”
Had Nene been healthy last year, the Nuggets would have had an outside chance at winning a title. This year, with a healthy Nene and with Billups, their ceiling stops well below the title-winning level.
Again, in my world, a higher chance of winning the whole shebang is what equals “better”.
—–
The Billups / Iverson deal was a win-win transaction for both teams.
Detroit dumps Billups contract and gets an opportunity that they didn’t have before to steal a title.
Denver gets under the luxury tax level, which ownership demanded, while still rolling out an above-average team for the next couple of years.
January 2nd, 2009 at 4:04 pm
Oh, come off it, Petey. Nene and Camby are both above-average big men with some strenghts and some weaknesses. I follow the association so closely that it’s probably unhealthy, and if I had to pick one of those guys for a single season, and I knew he’d be healthy, I’d probably pick Camby. Reasonable people can certainly disagree.
Had Nene been healthy last year, the Nuggets would have had an outside chance at winning a title.
The word “outside” is doing a lot of work in that sentence.
January 2nd, 2009 at 4:23 pm
Before it’s all over we’ll hear from the expiring contracts of Raef LaFrentz (Portland) and Wally Sczerbiak (Cleveland). Cleveland may well say “screw it, this is our year” and pull the trigger.
On the Wiz tip I saw the Celtics-Wizards game last month and it was one of those games where you not only see the difference between your team and an actual good team, but you leave thinking, “I don’t see how we ever close that gap.” Disheartening.
Then again I thought the same thing watching Capitals-Red Wings circa 2005 and that worked out OK. So all the Wiz need is to luck into a once-or-twice-a-generation talent. Done and done.
January 2nd, 2009 at 4:29 pm
which indicates you are not following the association particularly closely.
This could be true and yet Camby could still be > Nene.
Again, in my world, a higher chance of winning the whole shebang is what equals “better”.
Note that this business about who has the highest hypotehtical “ceiling” or whatever is completely unfalsifiable. If Detroit wins it all, it’s because Petey was a predictive genius. If Detroit has a disappointing result this season, it doesn’t matter because Petey was still correct to point out they had a “higher chance” of winning it all and it just didn’t work out. Or something.
Yet all of that is a pretty big stretch to have to make in response to comments questioning how valuable an addition Allen Iverson is. Back in the Land Where Things Are Actually Happening, we should probably just stick to observing how things have tangibly played out thus far.
January 2nd, 2009 at 4:36 pm
Danny Ferry has a tough job: he needs to ensure that his team maintains the serious championship edge it has developed this season, while also obtaining some star young talent to put around LeBron. If LBJ gets to July 2010 and he looks around him and still sees nobody but Boobie Gibson, Mo Williams, and Varejao (and the contracts of Ilgauskas and B.Wallace will be done by then), it’s bye-bye, Lake Erie.
January 2nd, 2009 at 4:39 pm
Before it’s all over we’ll hear from the expiring contracts of Raef LaFrentz (Portland) and Wally Sczerbiak (Cleveland). Cleveland may well say “screw it, this is our year” and pull the trigger.
The “this is our year” sentiment in Cleveland could also yield to the opposite result. It has to mostly be coincidence, but the Cavs have started to show some pre-08/09 tendencies sans Wally the last few games. This has to scare them a little.
Also, my goodness how the 2009-expiring contracts have gone out of style. 2010 is all the rage! Non-Knick franchises may not be able to accept getting even worse for a whole season and a half.
January 2nd, 2009 at 5:25 pm
Tangential point: LeBron isn’t going to the Knicks in 2010. Would you work for the Dolan if someone else would pay you as much (or, in the case of CLE, more)?
January 3rd, 2009 at 4:34 am
I know the Eastern Conference is off-topic, but my Pistons are finally starting to get some things together. Dark horse, I know, but don’t sleep on Detroit… but my home this one is http://www.makkale.blogcu.com
January 3rd, 2009 at 8:28 am
“Oh, come off it, Petey. Nene and Camby are both above-average big men with some strenghts and some weaknesses. I follow the association so closely that it’s probably unhealthy, and if I had to pick one of those guys for a single season, and I knew he’d be healthy, I’d probably pick Camby. Reasonable people can certainly disagree.”
Meh. Camby is indeed an above average big man, but Nene brings two things Camby lacks – a post game and an ability to defend on the ball in the post. Those two things are significantly more valuable than the assets Camby brings.
January 3rd, 2009 at 3:07 pm
The Spurs have the second best record in the west – or maybe it is third – despite having Parker and Ginobili each missing a significant number of games, despite having to incorporate three new players into the rotation (Bonner, Hill, and Mason). The Lakers are clearly the favorites for the west, but the Spurs are not so far behind. I have been seeing them listed as 25-1 for the title, and I think that number is clearly insane.
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