Ben Furnas has a nifty chart showing how much less effective the main components of the recently released Heritage stimulus plan are than some major progressive alternatives:
They’re not very detailed in their explanation of the methodology (just stating where they got the data without providing any links), but I think they do assume that all GDP increases increase employement equally. Which I don’t think is correct insofar as it treats an increase in food stamps to provide as many jobs as an increase in unemployment benefits. Food consumption is obviously pretty inelastic; increasing food stamps should not increase the consumption of food (and commesurate employment) all that much. As opposed to being unemployed, where one reduces all
discretionary’ spending, with macroeconomic consequences.
I mean, I think I see what they would say the mechanism is – the reduction in direct expenditures by the receipient on food allows them to spend on other things (and grow the economy.) But I don’t see how this works differently from unemployment bennefits that would give it a bigger mutliplier. (unless they’re saying that food stamps can’t be socked away in a savings account or pay down debt? is that the difference?)
DTM-
That makes sense. Still it seems odd that we are relying on poor people to spend more money to alieviate the economic downturn. As opposed to encouraging those people to save some money and build a nest egg so they are no longer poor (or at least, no longer living paycheck to paycheck, and in it’s absence, day to day)
Which is why I have no problem with infrastruture investment because it’s long term. And I don’t have a problem with increased unemployment benefits, food stamps, or any other straight up welfare as a temporary salve for those in need in rough times. But deliberately depending on people of limited means to spend every marginal dollar for the macroeconomic benefit of all seems somewhat morally dubious. (and I’m in general, an amoral libertarian)
The only thing the government does to “encourage” the poor to spend on food and goods is give them money. As you acknowledged, even dedicated food stamps function to increase spending not by getting people to buy more food, but to buy other things with their own money, that they could be saving if they wanted to.
When poor people get a little extra money and spend it on something, it isn’t because they’ve been steered away from savings by government policy, but because poor people often need more stuff than they can afford, and prioritize those purchases over savings when they get a little money together.
I’d think more of any of these projections if the people projecting PUT THEIR OWN MONEY ON THE TABLE and they would lose it if they are wrong.
It should also be noted that actual research by Christina Romer (Obama’s head economic advisor) showed that fiscal stimulus doesn’t provide anything else than short-term results.
Excuse me. Choose the life that is most useful, and habit will make it the most agreeable.
I am from Faso and also now teach English, give please true I wrote the following sentence: “Find discount airline tickets, shop bargain airfares.”
January 14th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
They’re not very detailed in their explanation of the methodology (just stating where they got the data without providing any links), but I think they do assume that all GDP increases increase employement equally. Which I don’t think is correct insofar as it treats an increase in food stamps to provide as many jobs as an increase in unemployment benefits. Food consumption is obviously pretty inelastic; increasing food stamps should not increase the consumption of food (and commesurate employment) all that much. As opposed to being unemployed, where one reduces all
discretionary’ spending, with macroeconomic consequences.
I mean, I think I see what they would say the mechanism is – the reduction in direct expenditures by the receipient on food allows them to spend on other things (and grow the economy.) But I don’t see how this works differently from unemployment bennefits that would give it a bigger mutliplier. (unless they’re saying that food stamps can’t be socked away in a savings account or pay down debt? is that the difference?)
January 14th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
DTM-
That makes sense. Still it seems odd that we are relying on poor people to spend more money to alieviate the economic downturn. As opposed to encouraging those people to save some money and build a nest egg so they are no longer poor (or at least, no longer living paycheck to paycheck, and in it’s absence, day to day)
Which is why I have no problem with infrastruture investment because it’s long term. And I don’t have a problem with increased unemployment benefits, food stamps, or any other straight up welfare as a temporary salve for those in need in rough times. But deliberately depending on people of limited means to spend every marginal dollar for the macroeconomic benefit of all seems somewhat morally dubious. (and I’m in general, an amoral libertarian)
January 14th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Extending Bush’s policies would result in a poor job market?!?!?!? Come on! ! !! ! ! ! !
January 14th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
Kolohe the Immoral Libertarian,
The only thing the government does to “encourage” the poor to spend on food and goods is give them money. As you acknowledged, even dedicated food stamps function to increase spending not by getting people to buy more food, but to buy other things with their own money, that they could be saving if they wanted to.
When poor people get a little extra money and spend it on something, it isn’t because they’ve been steered away from savings by government policy, but because poor people often need more stuff than they can afford, and prioritize those purchases over savings when they get a little money together.
You.
Heartless!
BASTARD!!!
January 14th, 2009 at 9:24 pm
I’d think more of any of these projections if the people projecting PUT THEIR OWN MONEY ON THE TABLE and they would lose it if they are wrong.
It should also be noted that actual research by Christina Romer (Obama’s head economic advisor) showed that fiscal stimulus doesn’t provide anything else than short-term results.
January 14th, 2009 at 11:42 pm
joe-
First, amoral != immoral
Second, my parents were married; I’m not the one born in a hippy commune in the Berkshires.
Last, Dr Jarvik says I can now take Lipitor for my condition; I don’t need his doohickey anymore.
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April 16th, 2009 at 10:10 pm
Excuse me. Choose the life that is most useful, and habit will make it the most agreeable.
I am from Faso and also now teach English, give please true I wrote the following sentence: “Find discount airline tickets, shop bargain airfares.”
With love
, Tino.