Elections Getting Duller
Election commentary had a tendency to get into some very fine-grained state-by-state analysis about what does and doesn’t appeal to voters in Pennsylvania or Colorado or the I-4 corridor in Florida and so forth. The evidence, however, was of a pretty boring more-or-less uniform national swing:
My inclination had been to say that press over-emphasis of state-specific factors was probably a holdover from the unusually close 2000 election when the details of the electoral college turned out to really matter. But Andrew Gelman took a more systematic look at the issue and finds that the uniformity of presidential election swings has been experiencing a steady (especially if you include the one-off case of the southern swing to Carter in 1976), decades-long increase:
Plausibly, then, the anticipation of state swings being substantially independent of one another simply reflects the actual experience of veteran campaign operatives and campaign reporters. The swings actually were less uniform in the past. And conventional wisdom among the younger generation of journalists and operatives is still dominated by the lessons taught by their elders rather than by the recent spate of low-variation elections.
158 Responses to “Elections Getting Duller”
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January 14th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
Electoral college results are now largely driven by cultural differences in terms of response to “family values” issues. And those are driven in large party by the affordability of family formation in different states. For a quick summary of my theory, see pages 170 and 214 of Gelman’s book “Red State, Blue State.”
January 14th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
There was very little change at all on a state by state basis from 2000 to 2004, just a broad but minor shift to the right. From 2004 to 2008, there was a broad, moderate-sized shift to the left.
The main reason there was more variation between 2004-2008 than 2000-2004 was because of turnout variations: blacks turned out in very large numbers due to a black heading the ticket, while whites were relatively less motivated to turn out than in previous elections.
January 14th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
Graph that against the percentage of voters receiving their media primarily from cable and the internet, versus local media and there’s your answer. Or the beginning of another question, at least
January 14th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
I think you’re wrong on this one Matt.
The Electoral College is winner take all. Furthermore, the variance in the data in that top plot seems to be on the order of 5%. That’s huge! There are plenty of states that were within 5% of switching both in the 2004 and 2008 and there will likely continue to be states like that in 2012. The fact that in a 50/50 election Obama would have likely won with Kerry states + IA, NM and CO is huge. The fact that he won NM and NV and PA by 5+% more than he won the popular vote is huge. Interstate variance on the order of 5% is very important. A party that can align that 5% is such a way as to give it an advantage in a “tied” election, is in a very strong position.
Look at it probabilistically. Imagine a 50/50 electorate and then apportion the probability of each party winning each state. Then allow me to tweak a handful of states’ expected vote totals by only 5% each in such a way that leaves the overall electorate at 50/50. I will be able to alter the win % of each party dramatically by doing this.
January 14th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Looking at the bottom graph, it appears the variance is a bit less than 5%. My point above still holds. Changing Obama’s expected vote share in VA or CO or OH or FL by 3% DRAMATICALY alters his probability of winning each state, which in turn alters his probability of winning the election overall.
January 14th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
I suppose this graph has the added benefit of showing Steve Sailer which states he’d prefer to live in (those under the line).
January 14th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
“simply reflects the actual experience”
Either that or they don’t know what they’re talking about. If you consider the average pundit’s extensive experience in statistics and mathematical modeling (zero) that is a more likely explanation.
January 14th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
What political operatives do not want to talk abut is how few voters can possibly be affected by a campaign. A general election for president starts off with the experts knowing how 90%+ of the vote will go.
The problem for the Republicans is that the part of population that will vote for them no matter what is shrinking while the part of the population that will vote for Democrats no matter what is growing. Eventually the Democratic Party will be able to get more 50% of the vote no matter who they nominate or how they run their campaign.
January 14th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
I wonder if this reflects a trend of folks getting their news primarily from national media and local issues simply being less significant. I know lots of people who follow national news religiously but are oddly ignorant of local news.
Put an other way does this reflect the waning influence of local TV news and newspapers.
The one thing that graph does bring out is the big swing in traditional Republican strongholds like Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming towards Obama.
January 14th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
No. This wasn’t true when the Republicans were saying it (”we don’t use birth control, suckas!), nor is it true now. Political preferences, especially intergenerationally, aren’t that fixed.
Case in point: Democrat beats Republican in 1968 by 23 points. Eight years later, Republican beats Democrat by 23 points.
January 14th, 2009 at 7:27 pm
Gee, I don’t know. Looks like some pretty significant departures from the mean if you ask me. Like williestyle says.
What you especially notice is geographical clusters departing from the mean. Obama did much better in the west than Kerry. He improved in every southwestern state – CA, NV, UT, CO, NM (and minus McCain’s home state of AZ) – by 14-17%, vs. only 9% for the nation as a whole. It was similar in the northern plains, especially, MT, ND, and NE. Meanwhile, he actually did worse than Kerry, or only slightly better, in every state of the Upland South.
I mean, it’s true that the map didn’t get entirely rearranged since 2004, like it was a game of boggle or something. But no one expected that to happen.
January 14th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
The concept of swing was invented for British political analysis in the 1950s, when Britain had something pretty close to a complete two party system, and swings were so uniform that you could tell how the entire election would go by looking at the first few consituency returns.
Ironically, since then swing has become less useful for analyzing British elections, largely due to the rise of third and regional parties, and much more relevant in the United States, where the concept is less well known.
January 15th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.
The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The bill is currently endorsed by 1,246 state legislators — 460 sponsors (in 48 states) and an additional 786 legislators who have cast recorded votes in favor of the bill.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 22 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
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