Cease-Fire
It seems that this is what the endgame in Gaza is supposed to look like:
Israel and the United States are trying to secure agreement on a deal brokered by Egypt that would mean a Hamas commitment to stop all rocket firing into Israel and an Egyptian commitment to block smuggling tunnels into Gaza, to stop the resupplying of Hamas with weaponry and cash. In return, Israel would agree to a cease-fire and the opening of its crossings into Gaza for goods and fuel and the opening of the Rafah crossing into Egypt, with European Union supervision.
Interestingly enough, this is exactly the shape of a deal that the peace camp has been saying the United States ought to push for since before the fighting started. The Gaza ceasefire made neither side happy because Hamas felt Israel was violating its terms by continuing its blockade while Israel was unhappy that Hamas’ rocketfire never genuinely fell to zero. The win-win, positive-sum compromise was fairly obvious. But instead of going for it, we got this incursion which has killed hundreds of people and inflicted serious suffering on 1.5 million. And at the end, we’re getting a push for the deal that would be obvious all along. But if a deal gets done post-fighting, then Kadima and Labor get to count it as the fruits of military victory rather than if they’d shown weakness by trying to achieve the same result without the same volume of bloodshed.
58 Responses to “Cease-Fire”
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January 12th, 2009 at 9:36 am
Power politics- on all sides- are always paid for in the blood of innocent people.
January 12th, 2009 at 9:43 am
What an extreme waste of humanity, it’s a shame, it really really is.
January 12th, 2009 at 9:52 am
Is it possible to request that Farid and SLC be banned from this thread before they show up?
January 12th, 2009 at 9:52 am
Well, I assume the deal itself by no means reflects the totality of Israel’s war aims. Those war aims clearly included the aim of weakening Hamas by inflicting widespread pain. Israel wants to separate the Gaza Palestinian community from Hamas by sending the message that if you are in Hamas, or your brother is in Hamas, or your dad is in Hamas, or if there are Hamas in the house next door to you, or working out of a bunker under your neighborhood, then you either a direct target yourself, or at least very likely to get collaterally blown up by the direct targeting of those Hamas members.
January 12th, 2009 at 9:52 am
All true, but if you believe that Hamas wouldn’t have agreed to it without the war, then it’s not relevant. War usually brings (at best) outcomes that could have been achieved without war, but one or both sides didn’t initially believe compromise was necessary or desirable. This is the most elementary thing in the world and a static analysis that ignores it is naive or bad faith or otherwise useless.
January 12th, 2009 at 10:00 am
The saddest thing about this conflict is it seems to have revealed the real long-term options for dealing with the Palestinians that Israel has settled on. Option A is to pass off Gaza and it’s refugees to someone else, while locking the West Bank Palestinians into bantustans and hoping for a relatively peaceful relationship with them that would restore Israel’s former cheap source of labour. If that fails then I think Plan B is forced expulsion.
Certainly there is ample proof by now that Israel will not ever accept a viable and independent Palestinian state and that it will never abandon the Settler movement (who have absolutely thrived since assassinating Rabin, shocking as that is to see.)
The saddest thing to see the US, Canada and pretty much all of Europe swallow their morals and stick with Israel nomatter how out of proportion and bloodthirsty it’s military actions become. Dropping white phosphorus while moaning that if only the Palestinians loved their children more there would be peace is pretty sad, but watching our governments chime in “hear hear, how dare Hamas hide behind civilians.” Meanwhile the IDF HQ in Tel Aviv is attached to a shopping mall.
January 12th, 2009 at 10:13 am
I would point out that I proposed just such a conclusion to the war several days ago on multiple threads. So far, the Hamas terrorists haven’t accept this proposal.
As for Mr. Gary, if he doesn’t like reading comments by myself or Mr. Farid, he can exercise his right to refrain from reading them.
January 12th, 2009 at 10:13 am
While you’re at it, can you use your ESP to get me tomorrow’s Megaball numbers?
January 12th, 2009 at 10:14 am
“such a compromise would have been impossible but for the current fighting, since Hamas would never have gone for it.”
That’s not true. These are the same terms Hamas offered in order to continue the previous ceasefire. Israel rejected those terms. The only reasons Israel will accept them now is they got their bombing fix in and they got to look tough before the elections. Of course, it’s not likely that Israel will lift the blockade. If a single rock is thrown across the border, plan on the blockade lasting another two years.
January 12th, 2009 at 10:16 am
You don’t know what you are talking about, Al. If the Philedelphia corridor is reopened and food and gas come in that’s going to be seen as a Hamas win. That’s not really optimal but that’s what it is.
January 12th, 2009 at 10:25 am
Considering that part of the aim of Israeli militarists to undercut any chance of negotiated settlement, I think that the current bombing fix will do very well in setting up the conditions for further Palestinian disorder. Goal achieved!
January 12th, 2009 at 10:34 am
Not to mention Hamas getting a degree of popular support from Arab populations in the region, even while those peoples’ same regimes are quite nervous and disliking of Hamas.
January 12th, 2009 at 10:46 am
Of course, Israel & the Palestinians had just such an agreement until 2007, when Hamas drove out the Fatah boarder guards. Absent the fighting, it doesn’t seem to me that either Hamas or Egypt would accept Matt’s proposal.
January 12th, 2009 at 10:53 am
“Goal achieved!”
I’d agree, but I’ll add that the real goal is that of diversion. Israel really doesn’t care much about Gaza. The West Bank is the real prize. As long as everyone keeps their eye on Gaza, they don’t see what’s going on in the West Bank. They are basically performing a magic trick on a grand scale right in front of us. As always, we’re fooled.
January 12th, 2009 at 11:11 am
Those of you with your anti-Israel blinders on need to explain why, if Hamas wanted this deal all along – a joke to any objective observer, no matter what you think of the war -the latest information is that they are resisting it and are being pressured by Iran to do precisely that. They are particularly opposed to international observers on the border. Gee, I can’t imagine why.
See http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1054792.html
January 12th, 2009 at 11:15 am
SLC,
You are liar, but that is not the worst of your many crimes. You never advocated such a solution; you have consistantly advocated the mass slaughter of Palestinians.
Burn in hell, monster, burn in hell.
January 12th, 2009 at 11:25 am
Duuuh, Jews have won more Nobel prizes than Muslims! So. . . uh. . . you know what i mean!! ! ! !
January 12th, 2009 at 11:36 am
Whatever doesn’t kill Hamas makes it stronger, and it’s starting to look unkillable– at least by military attack. Using civilians as a shield is morally reprehensible, but (1) where else can Hamas put their fighters? and (2) you only need a shield if you’re being attacked.
They say that 40 percent of the Gaza population is under the age of 14. What are these young people learning from Israel’s brutal attack?
January 12th, 2009 at 11:43 am
“But if a deal gets done post-fighting, then Kadima and Labor get to count it as the fruits of military victory rather than if they’d shown weakness by trying to achieve the same result without the same volume of bloodshed.”
Just to be clear, you’re saying that a hypothetical increase in Kadima-Labor popularity is purely coincidental, right??? You’re not actually implying that Livni and Barak purposely engaged in a war which not only resulted in the deaths of hundreds of Palestinians, but also put the lives of thier own civilians at risk??? If you believe in the latter (which is a pretty serious charge), than you should be saying that outright and not dancing around the issue.
Just to be clear….
January 12th, 2009 at 11:44 am
Bah, this whole thing has been a Tijuana Donkey Show. There’s no result.
Israel has agreed to another ‘truce’ allowing goods and fuel in? How did the last one work? Israel violated that truce from day one, restricting the flow of goods and fuel to less than a third of what was needed. The results were widespread malnutrition, child starvation, unemployment and economic decay.
Does anyone expect Israel to allow full transit? Nah. They’ll just go back to what they were doing.
Hamas promises to shut down its tunnels? That will last until people get hungry enough, then they’ll dig new tunnels.
The whole things a sick joke from start to finish.
January 12th, 2009 at 11:49 am
If the shape of the deal was apparent before the bloodshed, does that mean that it was, at that time, obtainable?
January 12th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
We must keep on fighting — missles will hit Tel Aviv, Zionist bullies, slap Israel hard, yada yada yada till I’m blue in face!
January 12th, 2009 at 12:06 pm
Adam, take a pill. Of course this ‘war’ was designed with electoral purposes. Of course the purpose of the war was to advance and preserve the careers of Livni and Barak and the fortunes of Kadima and Labour.
What is it about that which shocks you?
January 12th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
Re voice of reason
Mr. reason would fuck his mother if he knew who she was.
January 12th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
I don’t know why in the world EU would get itself involved in this awful game. I personally think US, EU, UK, the whole lot, should just pull out and let the Jews and Arabs settle this among themselves.
I am sick and tired of having to watch this awful Hundred Years’ War every time I turn on TV. It is just not worth my time, and probably not worth that of others as well.
January 12th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Dear Mr. Myles,
If you tell us just what type of war you’re interested in watching on your television…..
January 12th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
Until partition is ended and both Jews and Palestinians are included equally in their common homeland none of this bobbing and weaving will mean anything beyond the moment. The niceties of the fragmenters keeps the pot boiling and provides red meat for the extremists.
January 12th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
Not a chance as long as criminal outfits such as AIPAC, ADL, etc. bribe/bully/kidnap/terrorize/kill to advance their zionist agenda
January 12th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Hamas has in their charter the goal of destroying Israel. How do you negotiate with that?
Cease fires are why the ME, and Korea for that matter, drag on in a dysfunctional state. Wars should be resolved politically for good otherwise they turn into an exercise in pulling off a band-aid very slowly. If Israel doesn’t occupy a strip of land on the Egyptian border to monitor tunneling then they need their heads examined.
Hamas has numerous TV shows that show them training children to be warriors. Jihadis glorify women blowing themselves up. I guess killing them is only a problem if infidels do it.
At least Farid is funny at times. SLC is just crude. Of course, I notice that many of those in the Palestinian corner resort to vulgarities very quickly. Go figure.
January 12th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
RE: fostert @ # 10
There you go again with your recourse to so-called “facts”. Why, hawks just FEEL the truth deep in their bowels, and they just KNOW that mass homicide is always and forever the only effective bargaining strategy. Anything that happened anywhere in the world before 1938 or after 1946 is plainly irrelevant.
January 12th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
If you tell us just what type of war you’re interested in watching on your television…..
The Falklands War.
Har, har, har.
January 12th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
You all seem to forget how the Palestinians got where there at in the first place. Read the untainted history of the area. All they were was a bunch of migrant workers from Egypt, Jordan and Syria. Once the Jews reclaimed their country( which by the way was fortold in the Bible)and the migrant workers wanted back into their own countries, they were refused and so became the refugee camps in Gaza and the West Bank. They had no cites no country and no government whatsoever.The Israelies shot themselves in the foot by giving up Gaza and the West Bank. They wanted peace so bad they were willing to give up part of God’s gift to the Jews to the Palestinians. How Palestinians can even claim Israel as theirs is ludicrous. Israel has every right to exactly what their doing. Hamas is a Terror Organization. Wake up people. What if we had a neighboring Terror Org. that was firing rockets at our cities and your families? I think you would be singing a different tune. So wake up Peole.
January 12th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Belief of the Truth: I can’t tell whether you are serious, or parody. If you are writing in earnest, well, God help you.
Adam #20: I second the post of Skeptic #24. Are you really shocked, shocked, that politicians would gin up a war in part to help their electoral fortunes?
January 12th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
NBT, If you cannot believe the truth thats not my fault. Are you just another brainwashed college student that can’t think for themselves, that are taught by liberal self-agenda Professors? Look up the facts before you make assumptions. Or are you just another Palestinian sympathiser. Sure the resident suffering is not a good thing but, if the Palestinian people were smart they would get rid of the Hamas Cowards that inflict most of their suffering on them. Using them as shields and hiding like women amungst the residents. And by the way God has helped me in many ways.
January 12th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
Belief of the Truth:
I share your disdain for Hamas and their immoral tactics. However,
1. Arab-speaking peoples have been living in the land now known as Israel/Palestine/West Bank for centuries. Hundreds of Arab villages were destroyed during the 1948 war.
2. If the Israeli leaders “want peace so bad”, why are they building settlements in the West Bank and blockading Gaza?
3. Yes I am “just another Palestinian sympathizer.” I also sympathize with Israelis who have to fear rockets crashing into their houses.
4. Religion is a fine thing, but we cannot base international statecraft based on what the Bible (or Quran or Gita or whatever) predicts.
January 13th, 2009 at 12:28 am
I want to say that everything is part of God’s plan. The so-called Palestinians were not given that land by God. They stole that land for thousands of years after the Jews were sent wandering. God wanted the Jews to wander and suffer, but he never gave the land to the Palestinians. Hitler was God’s messenger to tell the Jews it was time to go to the Holy Land. The Jews should love Hitler, because God reached through him to them. Now God wants the Jews to do to the Palestinians what Hitler did. But God doesn’t hate the Palestinians, he just doesn’t care about them. If they all go away or kill themselves or something it would be okay. There’s no need for the Palestinians to suffer. The Jews should just drop an atom bomb on them. No one will care except God, and it will teach people who don’t like God to watch their step.
January 13th, 2009 at 12:33 am
Since Israel has never lived up to any agreement ever suggested to them, not to mention ignoring literally hundreds of UN Resolutions, the reality here is that Israel intends to sucker Egypt into doing its guard duty for it – with US help, by the way, the US has already sent Corps of Engineers personnel to help Egypt block the tunnels – and then Israel will open the borders a LITTLE – like they did in the previous ceasefire and then will proceed to violate the agreement repeatedly as they have always done.
It’s really bizarre how no one in either the pro- or anti-Israel camp can see how the same crap happens over and over again – and nobody calls Israel on it at all.
By the way, “belief of the truth” is a fucking moron with no clue about either the history of the region, the nature of Zionism, or the development of the situation since 1947. So do us all a favor, moron, and STFU.
January 13th, 2009 at 12:34 am
I think everything is the fault of liberals. Liberals are too selfish and full of themselves and they don’t care about God. This makes God sad, God is always willing to forgive, but some people just think smacking God in the face is fun. Liberals invented the microchip and they put 666 on every single one of them, now you can’t use a toaster without a prayer to satan. Liberals think this is funny, but they won’t think so in hell. I hate Liberals, Liberals made my mother leave my father when she caught him in bed naked with a liberal. After that, my mother had uncles over, sometimes 10 or 12 uncles a day. I never knew her family was so big. They would all tell me Liberals was bad and give me a quarter to go outside and watch for liberals letting air out of their tires. Some of them would give me candy if I went in their cars with them. I would like to drop an atom bomb on Liberals and teach them a lesson. But they never stay in one place. Liberals hide behind women and children. I think Liberals are just like Palestinians, except that Liberals have more pornography. If we gave the Palestinians pornography they could be just like all the other Liberals and shut up. But that wouldn’t work because Liberals never shut up, they spend all their time badmouthing god.
Anyway, these are just some of the things I think sometime, when I finish looking at naked pictures.
January 13th, 2009 at 12:36 am
Danceswithgoats (and appropriate handle) says: “Hamas has in their charter the goal of destroying Israel. How do you negotiate with that?”
By recognizing that it is the appropriate way of dealing with the issue. Hamas explicitly states that Israel is an illegal state – which it is. Eliminating the Israeli state is the only correct solution to the problem.
Hamas also states that Israeli Jews may live under Islamic law just as they do in Iran without significant problems. Funny how no one ever mentions that part of the Hamas charter.
January 13th, 2009 at 12:39 am
Israel doesn’t have to obey any agreeements because God likes them. When god likes you, you don’t have to obey the ten commandements or anyting. I know a lot about history. I know that the UN was made by communists to destroy America. But America will never be destroyed because God likes America even more than he likes Jews. America is foretold in the bible.
And I didnt go to STFU. That is a Liberal University. I would like to drop an atom bomb on it. That would teach all the Liberals not to mess with God.
January 13th, 2009 at 1:45 am
OK, when I read comments #33 and #35 I was willing to give Belief of the Truth the benefit of the doubt, and I thought he was writing sincerely, if badly guided.
Now that I’ve read #37, #39, and #41, it seems that this character is a comedian. Nice work. Good night.
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