The War’s End
I keep hearing vague rumors that Obama may not deliver on his campaign promise to swiftly withdraw US forces from Iraq. My guess would be that such rumors are wrong, primarily because not doing so would be crazy. It’s a campaign pledge. It’s the right thing to do. It’s what the Iraqi people want. And it’s what the American people want:
Americans are more upbeat about U.S. prospects in Iraq than at any time in the past five years, but nearly two-thirds continue to believe the war is not worth fighting and 70 percent say President-elect Barack Obama should fulfill his campaign promise to withdraw U.S. forces from the country within 16 months, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
And, indeed, the war is not worth fighting and President-elect Barack Obama should fulfill his campaign promise to withdraw U.S. forces. Meanwhile, it’s striking to see that 60-70 percent of the country is composed of far-left bloggers.
30 Responses to “The War’s End”
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December 16th, 2008 at 10:46 am
I suppose there’s a “men always promise to swiftly withdraw” joke here somewhere
December 16th, 2008 at 10:50 am
I had no idea 70% of Americans hated our troops. I wonder what Jonah Goldberg will say?
December 16th, 2008 at 11:09 am
What? Obama plans on leaving Iraq in 16 months or less? Does G.W. Bush know that? . . . He spent all that money on the Baghdad embassy so that – when it gets cold in Dallas during the Winter – he could spend a few months in a warm desert climate surrounded by millions of adoring Iraqis!
December 16th, 2008 at 11:10 am
My guess would be that such rumors are wrong, primarily because not doing so would be crazy. It’s a campaign pledge. It’s the right thing to do. It’s what the Iraqi people want. And it’s what the American people want.
Regardless of what our propaganda claims, the Iraqis are our defeated enemies and their desires are irrelevant. The right thing to do? A factor of very minor importance. Campaign promises? A little bit more serious, but historically, fulfillment rates have been extremely variable. What the American people want? Certainly one of the many things that politicians keep in mind, but never the most important one.
If you look at American war history since World War One, you’ll find that once the most important military, governmental, and civilian decisionmakers have made up their minds, the decision has been made, regardless of the four factors you named. From then on it’s “engineering consent”.
I liked Kucinich in the elections, but beyond the fact that he never would have had the votes, I don’t believe that the military and intelligences services would have obeyed him if he’d been elected.
Obama may still genuinely withdraw, but not mostly for the reasons you gave, though a couple of them may be factors. (For example, once Cheney’s out of there there will be no big player who insists on always doing the wrong thing, and there even may be some for whom doing the right thing is something they occasionally think about.)
December 16th, 2008 at 11:21 am
Oh c’mon! Not now! Just when a slight economic upset seems set to correct young American’s reluctance to step up to the plate, military-service wise! Just when events promise to provide us with the boots-on-the-ground we need to get the job done. Obama won’t do this, he can’t! He’s got to recognise the great desire to see the War on Iraq through which it (that great desire) permeates our fighting farces of all rankings. Besides, would there be any jobs for them if they came home? In the burgeoning field of priovate security, racketeering and strong-arm work, I mean, that is.
December 16th, 2008 at 11:22 am
There’s another possibility: Obama wants two terms. Staying in Iraq is a known quantity for which he will hardly be punished by most voters. Withdrawal, on the other hand, *could* (not definitely will, not probably will) cause chaos* or some other disruption and as a result, voter anger. Lowest risk = dragging feet.
*: or, even if it doesn’t, and there just happens to be another terrorist attack, the association will be more than enough.
December 16th, 2008 at 11:30 am
Fascinating Eeyore posts today . . . if you don’t think Obama will not withdraw from Iraq as promised, please provide some evidence.
The situation hasn’t really changed since last summer. Americans want to leave, Obama wants to leave, the Iraqis want us to leave, Maliki and his Shiite masters want us to leave, the Iranians and everyone else on the planet wants us to leave. Everything else is detail.
Dithering would destroy any possibility of Obama accomplishing any of his foreign policy goals and cripple his domestic agenda. What possible motivation could he have to not get out as quickly as possible?
Afghanistan is the real problem,since apparently the Taliban are now in control in most of the country and are blocking the Khyber Pass. Worry about that instead. Plenty of room for Eeyore predictions there.
December 16th, 2008 at 11:43 am
Staying in Iraq is a known quantity for which he will hardly be punished by most voters. Withdrawal, on the other hand, *could* (not definitely will, not probably will) cause chaos* or some other disruption and as a result, voter anger.
Nonsense. Staying in Iraq is a known negative for which he will certainly be punished by most voters, many of whom voted for him in large part because of his opposition to the Iraq War.
Moreover, staying for many more years, just as much as withdrawing, *could* (not definitely will, not probably will) cause chaos* or some other disruption and as a result, voter anger.
Finally, if we leave and there’s chaos, it will be chaos in Iraq and will not involve US troops, while if we stay any resulting chaos will involve US troops and therefore will be far more likely to negatively affect US voters.
December 16th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Well, certainly Obama could have done more to quash these rumors if he had named a foreign policy team with a consistent record of Iraq War skepticism or opposition. James Jones roughly fits the mold, but certainly not Clinton or Rice, and not really Gates either.
I suppose one question we have to ask ourselves is this: What sorts of situations in Iraq 16 months after Obama’s nomination would we be willing to count as Obama having kept his promise? Which kinds of residual forces are “combat troops” and which kinds aren’t? How many “advisers” will be present, and in what roles? What kinds of activity are going to be going on at the new embassy and the new bases we have constructed?
My guess is that we are going to end up with a permanent client state or quasi-colony in Iraq, a permanent imperial infrastructure and contingent of imperial personnel, some of them military, and a permanent headquarters and listening post for the US Middle East presence but that it will be all be dressed up and sold with political happy talk, and “war is over” theatrics.
I also assume that this outcome won’t really bother Matt and many other liberals, who will be happy to ignore it or embrace it, declare political victory and move onto other things.
December 16th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Now that 70% of the American populace are left-wing bloggers, that sure explains why it’s so hard for a new blogger to break through and get noticed.
December 16th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Nonsense. Staying in Iraq is a known negative for which he will certainly be punished by most voters, many of whom voted for him in large part because of his opposition to the Iraq War.
Stefan, define “staying in Iraq”.
December 16th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Folks, we ain’t leaving w/o the oil (or oil deals securely in place). If you really wanted the US out of Iraq, Obama was not your candidate. From what I can see, Obama does not have the stones to tell the truth: if you want us out of Iraq, you need to be ready to sacrifice many of the comforts that come with cheap hydrocarbon energy.
Unfortunately, the public doesn’t want the truth, because it can’t handle the truth. It wants wonderful-sounding rhetoric.
December 16th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
“I keep hearing vague rumors that Obama may not deliver on his campaign promise to swiftly withdraw US forces from Iraq…”
How about the other rumor – if he withdraws US forces from the Iraq frypan they’ll wind up in the Afghanistan/Pakistan fire?
December 17th, 2008 at 12:50 am
“not [withdrawing swiftly] would be crazy. It’s a campaign pledge. It’s the right thing to do. It’s what the Iraqi people want. And it’s what the American people want”
See, Matt, there’s your problem. You rattle off those things and think, “How could Obama *not* do it?”
While David Broder thinks, “I still haven’t heard a good reason for Obama to risk the wrath of the military — which all Good Serious People In Washington think wants to keep hemorrhaging American blood for the sake of pride — or the wrath of Republicans — which for some reason, every Democrat manages to do. Time to write a column about how what my conservative friends tell me are signs that Obama is a callow young man who doesn’t have the credibility to bring troops home, since Republicans will attack him for losing the war.”
I’m not willing to bet on Broder, on general principles. But I’m hesitant to bet much against him — or the rest of the DC media-political establishment.
December 17th, 2008 at 4:41 am
It really depends on what one means by “leaving Iraq”.
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The president also made sure to address the Iraqi people directly, telling them that they have “persevered through tyranny and terror” and “stepped back from a descent into civil war.”
Bush could have given that speech — and probably did three years ago.
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