Matt Yglesias

36 Responses to “The Pakistan Shift”

1. Noah Says:
   December 26th, 2008 at 1:57 pm

   Then again, bringing a country into NATO doesn’t mean we need to assist it in every war it fights. IIRC, the “mutual defense” clause of NATO has only been invoked once in the alliance’s history (Afghanistan), though the member countries have fought many wars over that time.

2. Petey Says:
   December 26th, 2008 at 2:00 pm

   It’s kinda weird how if it rains outside, Matthew will use that as a reason why NATO is evil, and if it’s sunny outside, Matthew will use that as a reason why NATO is evil.

   The free floating hostility to NATO without any thought given as to what would replace it is a good indication of just how deep the poverty of Matthew’s strategic thinking actually is.

3. The Olive Ridley Crawl Says:
   December 26th, 2008 at 2:42 pm

   You have it exactly backwards. Pakistan’s one easy card to play in these situations is its role as the West’s main intermediary against the Taliban. It uses this card to defuse any issues that arise from its known and stated support of Islamic militants. Any time there is pressure from India to get Pakistan to hand over, or even mildly control known terrorists, Pakistan makes a grand show of moving its troops to the India-Pakistan border. In this case, there have been no war signals from India. Pakistan, by making a grand show of “moving” its troops signals to its gullible western allies and onlookers (you included) that any pressure on it to rein in its support for terrorism against India will result in a consequences on the Western focused Taliban war.

   And, looking at your blog post, it works every time. The tragedy is that these issues are linked and we should be dealing with Pakistan as one hostile space, not compartmentalizing it into anti-West and anti-Indian spaces. Pakistan exploits this divide adroitly every time by taking advantage of the shortsightedness and narrow mindedness of all involved in the conflict.

   Note: As of today, Pakistan does not accept that anyone involved in the recent Mumbai incident are Pakistani.

4. Independent Says:
   December 26th, 2008 at 3:00 pm

   The Olive Ridley Crawl above gets it just right.

5. wiley Says:
   December 26th, 2008 at 4:12 pm

   Yeah. NATO has been so effective in Afghanistan that the North Atlantic has not been attacked by the Afghan army.

6. David W. Says:
   December 26th, 2008 at 4:40 pm

   I also think this move by Pakistan has more to do with gaming the U.S. than it does with India, and may also be part of some political power play within Pakistan itself.

7. N DeWitt Says:
   December 26th, 2008 at 4:43 pm

   Perhaps, Mr. Yglesias, alliance with India is the most rational choice upon which to base a regional diplomatic strategy. Perhaps you should assign less importance to the sensibilities of the Pakistani and Iranian governments.

8. JimboSlice Says:
   December 26th, 2008 at 4:45 pm

   Wow, when it comes to Lord Yglesias it sure sounds like Pakistan has succeeded in their objective to scare. I think Oliver summed it up perfectly.

   Too bad we have Harvard educated TFB’s like Lord Yglesias (think Prince George) running our foreign policy, because the USA will fall for ploys like this time and time again.

9. gregor Says:
   December 26th, 2008 at 4:47 pm

   I think that either the Bush administration was too blind to see that Pakistanis’ alleged efforts to end terrorism were all designed to extract as much arms (and other type of aid) from the US without actually doing anything significant, or someone in the white house designed this strategy for Pakistan so that the White House could claim that the all the money going into that rabbit hole was worth spending.

   Zardari is playing the same game as Musharraf.

10. Jasper Says:
    December 26th, 2008 at 5:15 pm

    This is all incredibly frustrating. Surely there are “cooler heads” in Islamabad who are well aware that:

    Insufficient cooperation with India in dealing with terrorism (and in particular the forces responsible for Mumbai) is both morally wrong and harmful to Pakistan’s interests.

    Surely there are likewise “cooler heads” in New Delhi who are well aware that:

    Excessive, public belligerence toward Pakistan backfires by making it more difficult for the latter to take robust action against its radicals, and cooperate with its subcontinent neighbor.

    Yet the pressures that flow from democratic governance make it awfully difficult some times for governments to swallow pride and actually take actions consistent with their own self interest. Almost an identical situation is observable in the Israel/Palestine conflict. I know I’m not making an novel observation here, but it is frustrating, that’s all.

11. ali Says:
    December 26th, 2008 at 6:15 pm

    the oliver ridley crowd isn’t accurate and the harvard educated owner of the blog is closer to reality.

    * general kayani, who took over the military after musharraf, has in one year gone to FATA, home of the militants, twice. the newspapers - the leading newspaper Jang for example - is hammering zardari or gilani to go for a visit as well.

    in his eight years in power musharraf never went.

    * one of the first things that the ppp government said was that they were going to grant political rights to the citizens of fata, who are not governed by the pakistani constitution and cannot form political parties. this hasn’t come to fruition yet, however, under musharraf, the issue was actually stifled. musharraf actively derailed a deal which would have led to political rights for fata citizens.

    * numerous big-whigs in the indian media and political parties, especially in the hard-right, have referred to the use of nukes. pakistan also claimed an indian air force incursion into its territory (although denied by india).

    * part of the reason pakistan is being forced to show that its concerned about india is because of its out of control media personalities. they are show-boating and gloating. these aren’t fundamentalists but extremely liberal westernized pundits. they have a huge share of the stupid man market and able to manipulate the government.

    * what the united states has to do is to shut up guys who write in the wapo talking about un controlled areas of pakistan. this lead pakistanis to think that there is an indian conspiracy afoot.

    just some thoughts.

12. ozgur Says:
    December 26th, 2008 at 6:30 pm

    So well. Think further ahead guys. things have a much bigger rather enormously large perspective.
    It is all dramatized to lure in Pakistan as was the time for Iraq and afghanistan by the sole pole.
    Were any WMD found and it was acknowledged by the president of USA but …now what a president of a country hanged and a country rather a oil producing rich country is in rags and chaos. what was the fault they had oil.
    Why Afghanistan because it is near China. why Pakistan because it has nukes not desired by jews.
    Pakistan - India are just the actors in world’s game…
    just some thoughts…….

13. Natascha Says:
    December 26th, 2008 at 7:02 pm

    Terrorist attack happens in India (with some degree of Pakistani involvement), and Pakistan has the gall to mobilize its troops in a clear act of aggression? And this is the reason why we can’t allow India into NATO?

    I think you’re missing the point as well, Matt. The West is wayyy to sensitive to Pakistan’s “security concerns”, so that when troops are being moved from helping counter-terrorism efforts along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, we think it’s an affront to India, instead of what it really is: it’s a move to fuck over Karzai, NATO, and the US while having a little fun with India in the process.

14. Richard Steven Hack Says:
    December 26th, 2008 at 7:18 pm

    Pakistan can not beat India in a war. That is Pakistan’s first concern. Furthermore, Pakistan has always seen having influence in Afghanistan as a strategic value. That, too, is their concern.

    Therefore, it is not surprising that Pakistan: a) will always be lax at controlling the militants they supported in Afghanistan and Kashmir, and 2) will play the US to obtain weapons to assist it in a war with India.

    None of this is surprising. None of this is relevant to US security concerns. What should be done is this:

    1) The US should stop supporting Pakistan in any way except possibly economic and humanitarian.

    2) The US should stop supporting India’s nuclear program as a means of counterbalancing China.

    3) The US should withdraw from Afghanistan, which is utterly irrelevant to US national security.

    4) The US should deal with any Islamic militants who operate against the West outside of those countries using normal counterintelligence means instead of military means inside those countries.

    5) The US should change its foreign policies so as to not be a target of Islamic militants in the first place.

    Naturally, none of these concepts will accrue any further revenue to the US military-industrial complex or the careers of Pentagon officers or the politicians like Obama, so none of them will be considered.

15. wiley Says:
    December 26th, 2008 at 7:48 pm

    right-O richard steven hack. And where would the neocons be without ENEMIES!!! EXISTENTIAL THREATS!!! TERRORISTS!!! AN AXIS OF EVIL DETERMINED TO DESTROY OUR WAY OF LIFE!!! (whatever that is.)—for which we need a surveillance society, star wars, strategies for world dominance, flying submarines…

    …intelligence won’t really do, will it?

16. SPURIOUS Says:
    December 26th, 2008 at 9:11 pm

    Olive Ridley Crawl and Richard Steven Hack are both right. Pakistan is playing us, as they always have and they always will. Simply put, Pakistan exists to irritate India. No one and nothing will ever change that.

    However, even as an ethnic-Indian American, I have to agree with Richard. The U.S. should not be getting involved in that part of the world. We’re not welcome, and we certainly wouldn’t get anything good out of it.

    The biggest difference between Pakistan and Iraq is that the Pakistanis would actually come here to blow us up. If you thought the blowback from our existing clusterfucks was bad, try this one.

17. G Says:
    December 26th, 2008 at 10:19 pm

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18. Roamer Says:
    December 27th, 2008 at 2:29 am

    I think Yglesias is correct that why Indian is talking about possible missile attacks or aggression against Pakistan? when they have failed to produce any tangible proofs to either Pakistan or the Interpol Chief who recently visited both the countries? …. How do you expect to take any action without a single Proof?!?! if Indian is talking about aggression then I think Pakistan has a right to defend their own territories as a soverign nation and specially against INDIA which has a history of allowing mass killings of minorities (Muslims, Christians and Sikhs).

    As for Afghanistan border, why blame Pakistan for infiltration …. its a border of Afghanistan as well … NATO and Afghan forces should make sure that nobody should cross from Pakistan … so this in not Pakistans responsibility ONLY. Also I just wonder why US stopped Pakistan from fencing their border with Afghanistan ?!?!

    Question to Oliver –> You have mentioned that Pakistan has ALWAYS been moving troops from Western to Eastern border all the time to pressurize the west as a threat …. please give us the proofs of this statement as how many times have they moved them or planned to move them?

    Point to Ponder: We have been talking about Terrorism all the time and infact what we are doing is that we are playing into the hands of these Jihadists, why not withdraw US and NATO troops from Iraq and Afghanistan? and stop drone attacks in Paksitan then these Jihadists will not be able to get the support, they will be left with no justification to fight with anyone as their biggest Selling point at this time is why US and NATO troops are in Iraq and Afghanistan and they want them out of these countries. So dont put fuel to the fire and lets try to live in a peaceful life.

19. Natascha Says:
    December 27th, 2008 at 3:29 am

    Uhh, Roamer, Pakistan doesn’t give a shit about Iraq, nor do the “jihadists” in Pakistan who ejaculate at the thought of war with India.

20. Roamer Says:
    December 27th, 2008 at 7:55 am

    Natascha, I am sorry but I have serious doubts on Indian accusations ….. Now everyone is getting bored of it because everytime there is some tragic event the first thing which their investigation teams does is they blame Pakistan for it …. and yet up until today I have to see one conviction against more then 100 events where Pakistan was accused of. As a matter of fact recent events like train blasts (Samjhota Express where majority of the dead were from Pakistan) and Malegaon bombing all the fingers were pointed towards Pakistan and later on it was disclosed that Indian Army Colonel (Hindu) along with his like minded friends in the Army and VHP were behind it and guess what the person who was doing that investigation also got killed in this Mumbai carnage ?!?! and when one of the state minister asked for the investigation on how this investigator got killed he was labelled as a traitor ?!?! what kind of democracy is this ?!?!

    Please try to understand all the evils in Indian Society are not because of Pakistan

21. ss Says:
    December 27th, 2008 at 12:02 pm

    …I used to think highly of MY (still do), but this post is a good reminder that no single person can understand *all* the complexities of the world.

    Could it be that this know-all-ness is embdedded deep in America, leading to fuck ups in Iraq, Wall Street.

    http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12818192

22. The Comic Project Says:
    December 27th, 2008 at 12:09 pm

    @Matthew Yglesias: India in NATO? Are you kidding me? I think I may be speaking for most Indians when I say..No Thanks. While most Indians don’t know or don’t care about NATO, the idea itself is laughable and I hope our leadership (or lack of it) sees it as such.

    Pakistan knows it is boxed in, it has carried on spreading mayhem in its neighbouring countries uninterrupted thanks to a ridiculous American policy since the 70s and 80s of working with its dictators - first to keep the Soviets at bay and then for “the war on terror”. Getting away each time by excuses like “non-state actors”, “what if the bomb falls into the hands of radicals”..etc.

    Pakistan knows it’s game is up this time, whether the Government is responsible for it..or not. It is simply trying to divert attention.

    At the same time, India has conducted itself in a very inconsistent manner - talking about evidence but not presenting it according to some, not managing the message properly - but the one thing that is clear is that India is a very very angry country. And it is angrier at itself than at Pakistan. It is angry at its politicians, its Government.

    Everyone wants retribution, but realise that a war at our doorsteps is not the smartest thing to do .. now or ever. The Indian Government’s ability to go into a war is also suspect and frankly, India has a lot more to lose in a war whether we are able to pick up the pieces or after.

    @Roamer - it is a weird situation, if evidence is made public and if it is real, the Indian Government will have no choice to go after Pakistan in a full scale war. And if it does not, then there are people who will question if evidence really exists. As an Indian, I am happy that India chooses the former and not the latter. Pakistan has a right to defend its territory in case of an Indian attack and what will happen won’t be pleasant for either countries. About the mass killings - there is a much larger section of the Indian population that is ashamed at 1984, 2002 and all the things between and after that our politicians and mobs have done. And I pray that some day these killers are brought to justice. Meanwhile, we do a far better job at protecting our minorities because for every hand that wants to kill, there are 10 to stop it.

    @Roamer: About the doubts on Indian accusations, the capture of one terrorist was probably a bit too convenient for India and a bit too inconvenient for Pakistan. But what you are spouting is a standard line and I have responded to this in a post immediately after the attacks on Bombay. Go read it.

    And oh..not all evils in Indian Society are because of Pakistan, but God help us if someone decides that Pakistan is the first thing that needs to be fixed on the way to make ourselves a better country.

    @Richard Steven Hack: US should NOT get involved in this mess. Let us - India and Pakistan - clear it up. And you are on the mark on the things the US needs to do.

    @JAsper: More likely that cooler heads will prevail but..
    @The Olive Ridley Crawl: I don’t think any country will own up responsibility of any kind. India and Pakistan share a lot of heritage, but I think there is a lot of hostility among people that is well hidden by expressions of love and nostalgia. It is utter bullshit and while we may not HATE each other, the fact is that we can’t stand each other either.

    Pakistan gained Independence from the British around the same time as India and many other countries in Asia and rest of the world. It would be fair to say that Pakistan had a lot going for it, like India did and while India messed up, we managed to do a lot better than some.Arguably, other countries have done better than India, but Pakistan is probably the only country that went totally wrong - due to its obsession with India, the support from the US in the 70s/80s and its inability to trust either democracy or its politicians.

    In the last few years, a reasonable section within Pakistan realized that it was left behind while the radicals have nothing better to do but to jihadify Pakistan into the stone age. I have no hatred for Pakistan or Pakistanis, but I don’t care either, and each time India is attacked, it pushes many Indians (including me) from “don’t care” towards a stronger emotion.

23. mr. bean Says:
    December 27th, 2008 at 10:23 pm

    MY is really off base on this one. I am in India right now and yes, the media is completely off balance, and yes, the Indian government can do a lot to improve internal security without needing to look to Pakistan, BUT, Pakistan really has an issue on its hands. We could argue about the extent of the proof available in this case but given the extent of involvement of non-state actors from Pakistan in past terror attacks in India why is anyone surprised that India asks for accountability (Dawood Ibrahim for e.g.)? Pakistan is clearly gaming the system. Their one value proposition to the US is their ‘help’ on the Afghan border. The US is also pretty much the one state that can force them to do something about the radical Islamic parties they harbor within the country. The easiest way to avoid doing anything about the whole issue is to force the US to choose between the war in Afghanistan and India’s troubles.(remember that Pakistan warned about this soon after 11/26 long before the verbal war escalated to its current degree)

24. Roamer Says:
    December 28th, 2008 at 6:56 am

    @The Comic Project –> what I was refering about ‘all the evils in Indian Society are because of Pakistan’ was based on the Cartoon that was published in one of the Indian newspaper (I forgot the name) where they showed two neighbours were fighting as to who threw the garbage on ones front door and then the policemen came and told them it was ISI from Pakistan so both of them went back home peacefully - no questions asked.

    As for evidences I certainly believe all the evidences should atleast be given to the Pakistan Government (if not public) then it will close the door of suspicion …. because rightnow everything is open for debate at the moment.

    I still believe we have lost the importance of human lives …. what I think is that the major thaw in between Pakistan and Indian relations is Kashmir because they have fought all the wars because of Kashmir and majority of the kashmiris want freedom so I say both Pakistan and Indian should give them the freedom and as a result both of them should stop fighting and work for the betterment of their economy and as a result citizens.

    I am happy to read that there are 10 against 1 for humanity and safety of human life in India. Majority of us in the world want a peaceful place for us and our next generation so we should work together and create awareness of value of each and every human life. And I am quite sure people who have lost lives in US, NATO, Israels bombings in Iraq, Afghanistan or Gaza were not terrorists and also the terrorists (suicide bombers) have not killed anyone who made the policies that they are fighting against …. 95% of the people have died were normal people like us and because of no fault of their own they have lost their lives and their families are left to suffer and survive without their dear ones.

25. The Comic Project Says:
    December 28th, 2008 at 12:23 pm

    @Roamer: Human lives are nothing more than a statistic now. And coming to think of it, it used to take a million.

    I don’t think any country would accept that evidence has been provided to them. I don’t think India would have if the situation was the other way around. That’s how nations get away from responsibility. Governments don’t get involved in this shit, but to quote a comment that I posted elsewhere: “Pakistan Govt. is most certainly not involved in a direct way, However, if as the head of a family, one of my family members wreaks havoc in the neighbourhood and returns home in the evening knowing that I will provide shelter with full knowledge of his activities, will you not hold me accountable for anything? Is it not natural for the neighbours to go after me..and my house when their patience runs out?”

    About the cartoon, I haven’t seen it, but the cartoonist is probably poking fun at the Indian tendency of blaming everything at the ISI It’s a benefit of doubt I give to Indian cartoonists because they really make much better points than the 24×7 media.

    When I was growing up, the history I read did not teach me to hate Pakistan or China or even the Brits, although there was a certain bias. That was my primary source of information and there was a big risk that a majority of Indians of my generation could get indoctrinated into something nasty, but most of us (at least in the cities) were not sold utter crap in the name of history. But I too am concerned about what the next generation sees as they have more sources of information.

    You are right - creating awareness for each and every human life. A movie actor recently said that we need to teach our children to be sensitive, not just competitive. But that isn’t going to happen.

26. Roamer Says:
    December 29th, 2008 at 4:38 am

    @The Comic Project: You have summed up very well in your last paragraph that we have to teach our children to be competitive but in the same place sensitive too and from my personal experience I can easily say its not that easy

    As for your point on the family head taking an action against the family member, I still believe family head will not take an action against the accused family member unless he is sure about the charges … specially when the neighbours are not sharing the proof of his family member’s involvement and the family head’s request for joint investigation is rejected by the neighbours and also when there is a history of his same family member being accused of some action and later on it turned out that someone else did that job then dont you think family head has the right to smell that there is something fishy in these accusations

27. The Comic Project Says:
    December 29th, 2008 at 11:15 am

    Yep. I knew you’d go there.

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