The Elusive Post-Bubble Economy
Paul Krugman takes on the question of how we get the economy to re-balance itself for a post-bubble environment and comes up with the disturbing answer that he doesn’t really know:
To be more specific: the severe housing slump we’re experiencing now will end eventually, but the immense Bush-era housing boom won’t be repeated. Consumers will eventually regain some of their confidence, but they won’t spend the way they did in 2005-2007, when many people were using their houses as ATMs, and the savings rate dropped nearly to zero. [...]
A more plausible route to sustained recovery would be a drastic reduction in the U.S. trade deficit, which soared at the same time the housing bubble was inflating. By selling more to other countries and spending more of our own income on U.S.-produced goods, we could get to full employment without a boom in either consumption or investment spending. [...]
Furthermore, even if the dollar falls again, where will the capacity for a surge in exports and import-competing production come from? Despite rising trade in services, most world trade is still in goods, especially manufactured goods — and the U.S. manufacturing sector, after years of neglect in favor of real estate and the financial industry, has a lot of catching up to do.
Anyway, the rest of the world may not be ready to handle a drastically smaller U.S. trade deficit. As my colleague Tom Friedman recently pointed out, much of China’s economy in particular is built around exporting to America, and will have a hard time switching to other occupations.
Krugman says we may need a prolonged period of government intervention in the economy even past what’s needed as a short-term stimulus. I would say that part of the answer may well involve taking a larger share of our productivity gains as increased leisure rather than increased production and incomes. As noted below, Americans on average put in many more hours of work than do the citizens of most other wealthy countries. A structural shift to less-work, less-output dynamic could be catastrophic if that means a structural shift to a very high rate of unemployment. But if it means a structural shift toward six-week vacations and fewer 60 hour weeks then that could be a good thing.
59 Responses to “The Elusive Post-Bubble Economy”
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December 22nd, 2008 at 8:48 am
OMG, three posts in about 5 minutes??
I think Ms Palmieri is totally trying to bury her immense frak-up. LOL!
December 22nd, 2008 at 8:49 am
I really did wonder if MY could write coherent posts this early in the morning (well, coherent minus spelling errors). Timed posts aren’t a bad thing! It paces things out and gives me time to read down.
Now if only he’d get out of bed and check his own blog…
December 22nd, 2008 at 8:49 am
I suppose if you can’t delete nonsense, you can post enough to push it off the front page.
December 22nd, 2008 at 8:52 am
Wow! If Jennifer Palmieri keeps throwing up posts this fast, she could become as prominent a blogger as Yglesias used to be. Maybe she could even get a corporate master watching her shoulder too!
December 22nd, 2008 at 8:55 am
This is Jennifer Palmieri, acting CEO of the Center for American Progress Action Fund.
Most readers know that the views expressed on Matt’s blog are his own and don’t always reflect the views of the Center for American Progress Action Fund. Such is the case with regard to Matt’s comments about Post-Bubble Economy. Our institution has partnered with Post-Bubble Economy on a number of important projects – including a homeland security transition project – and have a great deal of respect for their critical thinking and excellent work product. They are key leaders in the progressive movement and we look forward to working with them in the future.
December 22nd, 2008 at 8:57 am
I get it. Instead of firing back at Palmieri, Matt is negotiating for a shorter work week.
December 22nd, 2008 at 8:59 am
Timed posts aren’t a bad thing! It paces things out and gives me time to read down.
I agree with that idea even blogger-bosses don’t make ill advised posts the night before. It allows for better comment threads.
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:03 am
And Jennifer Palmieri approved this post, which makes me feel ever so much safer. Doesn’t it you?
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:04 am
It’s like there’s this big elephant in the blog, and nobody’s talking about it.
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:05 am
Be gracious is your going-away post.
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:06 am
“I agree with that idea even blogger-bosses don’t make ill advised posts the night before. It allows for better comment threads.”
Exactly! Allowing 10 hours for things to fester and wild speculations to pop up is great. JP probably wrote that Friday afternoon before heading home and timed it to post Sunday night because, I mean really, who reads public policy blogs on a Sunday night?
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:15 am
This is Jennifer Palmieri, acting CEO of the Center for American Progess Action Fun.
Most readers know that the views expressed by commenters on Matt’s blog are their own and don’t always reflect the views of Matthew Yglesias. Such is the case with regard to comments about Jennifer Palmieri. Matthew has partnered with Jennifer Palmieri on a number of important projects – including an editorial independence transition project – and have a great deal of respect for Jennifer Palmieri’s critical thinking and excellent work product. She is a key leader in the progressive movement and Matthew looks forward to working with her in the future.
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:15 am
Jeremy, I think that just proves that JP is a much more popular blogger than Matt. She was just trying pick up the down time. A Sunday night post by JP gets far more attention than Matt’s original post on the same subject, which had only 11 comments by the end of Friday.
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:19 am
Oh, fornicate Ms. Palmieri, this is an important blog.
The place to go for that export production to provide the best possible economies of scale for all that New Energy Economy manufacturing production is the South Atlantic … Latin America and Africa.
Especially Africa, with balanced trade deals that allow us to back out of the deal with China that China would finance our imports and we would maintain a massive trade deficit in manufactured goods, to match our massive trade deficit in Energy.
The nations of sub-Saharan Africa, on the other hand, would eagerly accept balanced trade arrangements that would allow them to export dollar for dollar with what they import. It would allow them to escape their severe external finance constraint, while providing the US with good old-fashioned, 1950’s/1960’s style multiplier-accelerator growth.
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:21 am
Of course, how could I be so blind?
Unfortunately, it’s time for bed in this part of the world. I was hoping to see something beforehand, but I guess MY’s still sleeping in or something so I’ll just have to catch up in the morning, by which time I’m sure this thing will have run its cycle.
I usually miss out on the fun stuff. Good for JP that she decided to post when I’m awake and can take part in the fun.
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:24 am
Was anyone under any illusion that this was not a CAP blog? Sure, I appreciated the subtler way Yglesias squared is opposition to the auto bailout with CAP’s position in favor of it. Over time, he sort of moved in favor of the bailout, and kind of emphasized other issues – like Republican conflicts of interests re: Corker or how the UAW is pretty awesome.
Jennifer Palmieri’s post didn’t allow Matt the time to kind of say, maybe this Third Way group is actually pretty good. That would’ve been a better approach for Matt – by making him look like a tool of his corporate overlord – and for CAP by not making it look like an ideological, partisan organization.
In the end, CAP is an ideological partisan organization, and MY, as much as I like him, is something of a tool of his corporate overlord. It’s good to see that in black and white, and for that I’m thankful for Jennifer Palmieri’s hamhanded post.
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:27 am
Clearly what we as a country should do is delegate all near-term imaginable industries to other nations, particularly lower wage third world nations, given broad theory we learned in economics classes, and then wait for the market fairy to come and place us atop the firmament with some set of productive market sectors as yet unimagined.
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:41 am
OT on the “politically feasible” — 2005 Maine Health Care Town Halls: Citizens insisted on including single payer in their survey, then voted for it. Is anyone in the Village listening? Tom Daschle? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:45 am
Here’s what I don’t understand: Matt quite obviously works more than 60 hours a week, presumably because that’s what makes him the happiest. But his rhetoric assumes that the rest of us are only working 60 hours a week for “the man” or whatever, rather than because we, too, feel the same way.
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:50 am
“Krugman says we may need a prolonged period of government intervention in the economy even past what’s needed as a short-term stimulus.”
As if this is a brand shiny new idea. We’ve had “a prolonged period of government intervention” since Hoover.
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:53 am
I would say that part of the answer may well involve taking a larger share of our productivity gains as increased leisure rather than increased production and incomes.
In my layperson’s guess, there is a serious problem for implementing Matt’s proposal in this country due both to the weakness of labor organization and to the high cost of employing each full-time worker because of the cost of full benefits, especially health care. It is more economical for an employer in our society to squeeze 50 slightly less productive hours out of 3 employees than to look for 30 slightly more productive hours out of 5 full-time workers. The burden benefit needs to be shifted to society as a whole, and union organization of the workforce needs to spread much wider, and reach higher up into white collar and middle management levels of firms, so that Americans can bargain effectively and collectively for a greater share of the fruits of their productivity.
McCain’s health plan was geared toward ending the employer-based health insurance system. But he wanted to cut other spending and then provide people with a modest subsidy which would throw people to the mercy of the private market, and probably produce a system in which health care costs are not shared, but the strong and healthy receive much better health insurance options than the weak and sick.
If it is really true that the US economy is moving toward a new equilibrium based on lower overall levels of consumption – which is debatable – and if we want employers to have greater flexibility to hire productive workers for shorter work stints, perhaps it is time to start thinking once again about a single-payer national health system.
My own view is that consumption will probably rebound, because there is no real limit to the number of health care products a society wants to consume. Everyone always wants to live longer, and healthier lives. Isn’t that an area in which America still has many natural advantages and edges? With Obama’s emphasis on restoring the US edge in science and promoting science education, with a graying population in the developed world, and existing US strengths in medical and biotech research, isn’t this a sector poised for an explosion?
These problems are connected. We need more, better and cheaper health care products to sell to each other and elsewhere. And we need to overhaul a health care system that is inefficient at driving at waste and reducing costs.
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:54 am
Matt works when I tell him to work.
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:55 am
The first paragraph in my previous post was a quote from Matt and should have been italicized.
December 22nd, 2008 at 10:35 am
re 20: most people do, in fact, work a 60 hour week because ‘the man’ is telling them to in the peculiarly suasive language of ‘dolla dolla bills, y’all’. most people would rather be having fun with their family. except you, obviously. tastes differ.
December 22nd, 2008 at 10:36 am
bottomofthe9th, Jennifer Palmieri has a point here in this post.
She has a choice to work as many hours. Want to bet on what the majority of people will want if given the choice?
December 22nd, 2008 at 10:44 am
We here at Think Progress appreciate the blogging that Matt does. We also have a very good relationship with bubble economies and have partnered with them on many occasions. We wish to make it clear that comments made by Matt do not reflect the opinion of the Think Progress management, or that of our affiliate partners.
Thank You
- The Management
December 22nd, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Come the revolution, bottomofthe9th will be forced at gun point to do exactly 20 hours of work per week. Any attempt to do additional labor will be swiftly and severely punished.
December 25th, 2008 at 2:30 am
A few weeks ago, MY posted some stats on US industrial output, and from it drew the conclusion that manufacturing is a growing segment of the US economy. I suggested that a segment “grows” (i.e. has a greater impact on the economy as a whole) when its share of the GDP grows. Other posters did not agree, and even used the stats to conclude that US manufacturing had *not* been “hollowed out”.
My reading of Paul Krugman’s quote is that hollowing out *has* occurred:
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