Matt Yglesias

Today at 1:11 pm

Wonking Out on Somali Pirates

somali_pirates_1.jpg

Most of the coverage I’ve seen of the Somali pirates issue has viewed this primarily through the lens of amusement — modern-day pirates! But of course there are real policy issues here. In particular, at the end of the day it’s not easy to fight pirates at sea. The ocean is extremely large, boats move around, and circumstances are generally unfavorable to law enforcement. You need to fight the piracy on land. If you tried to run a pirate ring out of San Diego, you wouldn’t get very far — there are police in southern California. But Somalia has, obviously, been in a state of political chaos for a long time now. And when the country looked like it was heading for a measure of political stability under the Islamic Courts Movement, the US decided it would be smart to back an Ethiopian invasion-and-occupation of the country that ultimate wound up resulting in more chaos than ever. But whatever you think of the past, going forward you would ultimately want to solve this issue on land. In other words, by creating some kind of political stability in Somalia.

If you’d like to learn more about these issues, I’d recommend the International Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa page and also the ENOUGH Project’s Somalia page (which doesn’t seem to be loading at the moment, but should come back). Either that or we can make more jokes about how pirates are funny. Arrrr funny.

Filed under: Africa, Piracy, Somalia





74 Responses to “Wonking Out on Somali Pirates”

  1. pseudonymous in nc Says:

    Josh Marshall makes the interesting historical point about the dwindling force projection of great powers and the rising incidence of piracy.

  2. steve Says:

    Why not subsume the previous blog post under the subject of dealing with piracy?

  3. Pru Says:

    There’s a good round up of all the pirate news you could ever want at eastafricaforum.net. No pirate jokes, though.

  4. gordon gekko Says:

    Typical liberal perspective. If it is more cost effective for the West to just deal with the pirates in the sea we should take that approach. Providing stability in Somalia would be hugely expensive and I doubt worth the trouble. Of course liberals are biased towards the most idealistic approach. Perhaps this is why American foreign policy is so right of center.

  5. Ryan Says:

    Thanks a lot for the buzzkill, Matt. I’ve been practicing my pirate voice all day.

  6. Hector Says:

    Re: And when the country looked like it was heading for a measure of political stability under the Islamic Courts Movement,

    Right, involving stoning to death 13-year old rape victims. Some stability.

  7. Njorl Says:

    If it is more cost effective for the West to just deal with the pirates in the sea we should take that approach.

    I believe the point is that it is not likely to be more cost effective to deal with the pirates at sea. Even if you destroy every ship used for piracy and kill everyone currently engaged in piracy the problem doesn’t go away. A poor, anarchic nation awash in weapons with a small percentage of its populous engaged in salt-water fishing is going to produce piracy.

  8. eran Says:

    What I haven’t seen discussed at all is the effect these developments are going to have on global warming

  9. Megan Says:

    I highly recommend William Langeweische’s book The Outlaw Sea, which talks about the difficulties policing the oceans and is also a super fun read.

  10. sarah Says:

    Because the last time the US was in Mogadishu that just went awesome.

  11. Don Williams Says:

    Re Matthew’s comment “it’s not easy to fight pirates at sea.”
    ———–
    1) Sure it is. With earth’s curvature, line of sight is about 3 to 4 miles at sea level. So you keep an AC-130 circling around 40 or so miles out and send in a nice virginal merchant ship for bait. Pirates come out, merchant radios distress call and boom — lots of fish chum.

    See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_AC-130

    2) Of course, part of the problem is that the Air Forces has stepped in shit to protect it’s stealth fighter jets. The AC-130s are near end of life and the Air Force has been screwing around on bringing the new AC-27J on line:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alenia_AC-27J

    3) I would love to have one of the AC-27Js — just the thing for groundhog hunting.

  12. TW Andrews Says:

    Meh, the ocean isn’t that big, and GPS means that any boat that has it is trivial to find. It’s simply a case of someone stepping up and providing a security guarantee.

    We should obviously promote stability in Somalia because it’s the smart thing to do (so long as it doesn’t require troops on the ground–we’ve had quite enough of that for awhile, I think), but I don’t see piracy as the key reason for that.

  13. Don Williams Says:

    The old John Wayne movie “The Green Berets” has a scene near the end of a gunship dealing with a Viet Cong human wave attack.

    Although Matthew may have a point –it might be simpler to just napalm the shit out of the a certain port on the Somali coast.

  14. daveNYC Says:

    Meh, the ocean isn’t that big, and GPS means that any boat that has it is trivial to find.

    And unless there’s aircraft, you’re limited to a top speed of around 30 knots or so (for the faster warships). That means that if you’re 100 nautical miles away from a ship that’s being attacked, it’ll take three hours to get to them. If the pirates have taken the ship by then, you’ll then be stuck because they’ll have hostages, and boarding a hostile ship at sea isn’t the easiest thing to do.

    And the ocean really is that big.

  15. Ano Says:


    The ocean is extremely large, boats move around, and circumstances are generally unfavorable to law enforcement.

    This seems like a job for predator drones.

  16. Don Williams Says:

    One of the few negatives to Bush’s exit is that we won’t get to see Dick Cheney issuing “Letters of Marque and Reprisal” to Blackwater to retrieve that Saudi oil tanker.

    Too bad — anyone who sails hates fucking pirates. From time to time, yachts disappear in the Caribbean, near Somali or in Indonesia. Disney is full of shit.

    Motherfuckers should be blown out of the water — and survivors should be left treading water 300 miles from the nearest beach.

  17. Don Williams Says:

    They should also arm the merchant ships — put a fucking minigun on deck. When the fuckers show up, pull off the tarp and — Surprise!!

  18. low-tech cyclist Says:

    The arc of the U.S.-backed Ethiopian invasion of Somalia had a lot in common with that of the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

    What was weird was that, as the Ethiopian army was experiencing its quick success in the invasion stage, the wingnut bloggers were cheering it on and celebrating its success, as if they had no recollection of their having done the same as we invaded Iraq three years before. It was as if they had no idea that the invasion part was easy, and the proof of the pudding was still to come.

  19. Don Williams Says:

    I take it that the new US African Command is still arguing over the Org charts and where the coffee pot goes.

  20. Argus Says:

    Easy answer – issue Letters of Marque and Reprisal to Blackwater and friends and have them clean the place up.

  21. Kolohe Says:

    But Somalia has, obviously, been in a state of political chaos for a long time now. And when the country looked like it was heading for a measure of political stability under the Islamic Courts Movement, the US decided it would be smart to back an Ethiopian invasion-and-occupation of the country that ultimate wound up resulting in more chaos than ever

    You’re too cute by half. The center of piracy is in and around the horn itself, up north. These areas were *always* lawless even with the Islamists in charge in Mogadishu. So invading Mogadishu really has nothing to do with why piracy has increased lately. (why has it increased? short answer – it’s on the upswing because people keep paying them off. And it has not increased as drastically as popular preception would have it, but is making the press now due to the recent large and relatively far flung seizures and the power of video)

    It’s going to be nice when Bush is no longer in office so there will no longer be a convenient bogeyman on which to blame all the world’s problems

  22. Swervus Says:

    NINJAS. It’s what we need, plus as a bonus you get to finally answer the “game changing” question: Pirates vs. Ninjas, who would win?

  23. Ed Says:

    While its an interesting idea that you fight pirates on land, its not really true. You can fight them at sea and its easier and cheaper to do it this way. To start with, arm the merchant vessels (ever hear of the term “armed merchantman”) and then if you have to institute convoys. Thats pretty much been SOP on fighting pirates since the Spanish were doing it.

    Eventually you have to go in on land and occupy their bases to end the threat once and for all, but this is the last step and is really costly. The French ended the threat of the Babary pirates by taking over Algeria in 1830, but they were still fighting there decades later.

    Its not quite the same as piracy, but the u-boats were defeated in both world wars by finding them and sinking them at sea. Attempts to go after their bases tended to be fiascos.

  24. Don Williams Says:

    Here’s the IMO’s monthly reports on piracy around the world. Most involve merchant ships but private sailboats/yachts also hit. For example, from just July 2008:

    1) 3 NA Yacht
    23/06/2008 EAST AFRICA

    Near Lasqorey, near
    Somali land and
    Puntland border
    Robbers seized the privately owned yacht. The
    hostages, a German family of three and the yacht
    captain were taken captive near the small village
    of Lasqorey, near Somali land and Puntland

    2) 6 RAVEN-EYE

    Yacht

    United Kingdom

    14
    05/07/2008

    19:00 LT
    SOUTH AMERICA (C)

    8 NM off Puerto Santos

    Venezuela

    10° 45.00′ N

    063° 00.00′ W
    Six robbers armed with guns and knives in a
    pirogue fishing boat, one dressed in military
    uniform and two with face masks, approached the
    yacht underway. The skipper rammed into the
    fishing boat but the robbers managed to board the
    yacht. They tied up the two-crew members and
    pointed guns to their heads. They stabbed and
    killed the skipper’s dog. The robbers stole
    equipment, property and escaped. One crew
    member injured

  25. Don Williams Says:

    Sorry –link to IMO piracy reports is here:
    http://www.imo.org/Circulars/index.asp?topic_id=334

  26. edsbowlingshoe Says:

    Why are pirates such scallywags?

    Because they arrrrgghh!!

  27. Duncan Kinder Says:

    A blog covering the naval warfare aspects of modern piracy, including but not limited to Somalia:

    Eaglespeak

  28. Cabalamat Says:

    The ocean is extremely large, boats move around

    This shouldn’t be a problem. There are radars that can detect a submarine snorkel. Detecting an unstealthed boat should be a doddle.

  29. James Robertson Says:

    “In particular, at the end of the day it’s not easy to fight pirates at sea. The ocean is extremely large, boats move around, and circumstances are generally unfavorable to law enforcement. You need to fight the piracy on land.”

    I think we’ll have to add history to the list of subjects Matt doesn’t know. The British navy – with far less maneuverable sailing fleets – successfully wiped out piracy during the course of the 18th and 19th centuries.

    The main difference between then and now: there were far fewer people like Matt around to spend massive amounts of time over-thinking the problem. If you think nation building in Iraq was hard, what do you think Somalia will look like?

    There’s a far simpler way: these pirates operate in a very small area. Declare that area to be an exclusion zone, other than to ships that register with the coalition – and that every other ship spotted in the exclusion zone will be sunk on sight.

    No fuss, no muss, rate of piracy drops to the floor as the risk/reward ration reverses.

    However, I’m sure that our over-thinkers – like Matt – will have a rationale for why this is somehow unfair to boating Somalis.

  30. Don Williams Says:

    Re “Declare that area to be an exclusion zone, other than to ships that register with the coalition – and that every other ship spotted in the exclusion zone will be sunk on sight.”
    ————-
    You could even put Identification Friend or Foe(IFF) Encrypted Beacons on the registered ships so that you could easily separate them out from the targets on the screens.

    If you didn’t want AC-130 gunships loitering, you could simply put Marine Harrier Jets on a platform a 100 miles or so off the Somali coast — they could be on top of a merchant ship in minutes.

  31. fostert Says:

    “They should also arm the merchant ships — put a fucking minigun on deck.”

    Umm, that doesn’t work with oil tankers. They are pretty flammable. They have strict no-gun policies for a reason. A slight spark can ignite the fumes that surround them. And that’s exactly why they are such easy targets. Pirates know damn well that nobody will shoot at them from an oil tanker. And let’s be clear about this: this is hardly the first time anyone has taken an oil tanker. It’s just the first time anyone has tried to keep it.

    For a good overview of modern piracy, I’d recommend John Burnett’s “Dangerous Waters”.

  32. fostert Says:

    “The British navy – with far less maneuverable sailing fleets – successfully wiped out piracy during the course of the 18th and 19th centuries.”

    Really? During the 18th Century, the British Navy actually became pirates themselves. And when they didn’t do that, they paid pirates to attack Spanish, French, and eventually American ships. Our first foreign war, the Barbary Coast Conflict, happened precisely because the British were not only allowing piracy, they were paying for it. The piracy in the Mediterranean Sea was ended by the Americans, not the British.

  33. Maineiac Says:

    I’ve been there, it is a big area with lots of fishing boats Coalition war ships and aircraft are few and far between. They couldn’t even protect ships when they were all using a corridor in the Gulf of Aden. This tanker hijacked tanker greatly increases the area of attacks. M.Y. is correct this will only be stopped by action shore side.

  34. fostert Says:

    “The piracy in the Mediterranean Sea was ended by the Americans, not the British.”

    Oh, and by the way, we stopped the Barbary pirates by attacking them on land, just as Matt recommends. Yes, there were sea battles, but it was the land battle that won it.

  35. muttley Says:

    A friend who is in the Navy suggested that the merchant ships travel in convoys which could be protected by military ships. Why isn’t anybody doing this?

  36. fostert Says:

    “Why isn’t anybody doing this?”

    Well, it costs a lot. So far the average piracy incident has cost less than $100,000. Basically, they just take whatever money is in the safe and in the crew’s wallets. This incident is different because they took the ship too. That should change people’s calculations. Before, nobody was willing to spend money on an escort when they weren’t going to lose much. With more to lose, escorts will become more likely.

  37. fostert Says:

    So one more thought: This incident will probably be the downfall of piracy. Piracy has been a real problem for many years. But modern pirates have thought small. They haven’t tried to actually keep a ship. They just wanted the money in the safe. It wasn’t enough to spark retaliation or generate any public outcry. This incident will do both. With proper security, the pirates don’t stand a chance. And we’ll get that security now. But shipping will cost more.

    This is kind of like 911. Before 911, there were plenty of airline hijackings. The reason is that nobody crashed the planes, they just wanted money or transit. So how many hijackings have happened since? Very few. Now that passengers expect to die, they won’t allow it, and nobody will try. Once the game gets serious, the serious people take action.

  38. fostert Says:

    Okay, one more. What does security look like?

    For ships not carrying petroleum products, Don Williams’ suggestion is a good one. Put military grade guns on merchant ships. And put real mercenaries with real guns on the ships. Have the ability to kill people before they get on board, and if they get there, have the ability to kill them on board. And there are plenty of mercenaries who would rather work on ships than be in Iraq.

    But that doesn’t work for oil tankers and LPG ships. You really don’t want gunfire anywhere near those ships. They will need military escort. These pirates aren’t well trained and don’t have good resources. So any vessel that says “US Navy” on it will suffice. The pirates don’t really know how well our sailors are trained, but they know well enough to stay away. A simple PT boat will be more than enough. Let’s face it, you don’t want to go against an American soldier when all you have is a homemade knife. And even if you do have an AK-47, that American soldier has an M-16 and is a much better shot than you. We may not wins wars, but we do win battles. And we win them decisively.

  39. Don Williams Says:

    If they can handle the legal end of it, this might be a way for Blackwater et al to transition out of the IRaq business into the paid merchant ship protection business.

    That’s why Letters of Marque and Reprisal issued by Congress might be a cheap and simple solution. After all, what can Somalia do in response? Invade us?

    PS I was just kidding about Cheney –although I’m sure David Addington would make the argument that it lies within Cheney’s power.

  40. Don Williams Says:

    You really, really need to make an example of these fuckers. Corpses hanging in the breeze for months kind of an example.

  41. fostert Says:

    “You really, really need to make an example of these fuckers.’

    I’m with you, Don. This really has to stop. And, yes, we should get Midieval on their asses.

  42. James Robertson Says:

    fostert – No, the British did their piracy (letters of Marque, formally speaking) against the Spanish during the 16th and 17th centuries. By the 18th, as their empire grew, they decided that secure sea lanes outweighed the treasure fleet gains.

    But thanks for playing. And to the guy who brought up US military action and the Barbary pirates – it was way more complicated than that. The underfunded military mission was continually hobbled, and never really got off the ground. Eventually, Jefferson authorized the diplomats to pay tribute.

    The actual shutdown happened much later

  43. fostert Says:

    “No, the British did their piracy (letters of Marque, formally speaking) against the Spanish during the 16th and 17th centuries.’

    Maybe so, but they were still paying pirates in the 18th and 19th Centuries. If you pay someone to commit a crime in your interest, you are still legally committing that crime. To claim that the British weren’t committing piracy because they were only paying other people to do it for them is absurd. So, yes, thanks for playing.

    And, yes, we did pay tribute under Jefferson, much to his dismay. But we did really fight a war to stop the piracy. Are you denying that? And are you denying that we won it? Jefferson wanted that war, but couldn’t get the resources to win it. Madison did win that war. And it really wasn’t much later. The point is that we defeated the pirates, not the British who were paying the pirates. And that point stands.

  44. fostert Says:

    And let’s make this clear. The British weren’t just paying tribute like everyone else. They offered to pay tribute on any French, Spanish, or American ship, plus a bonus. If a French ship offered tribute, the pirates would note how much the tribute was and then attack the ship. And the British would pay that tribute for attacking the ship and give them a special bonus for honoring the agreement. That’s what really happened. And that is piracy for hire. And any criminal court would convict the British for those actions as if they had committed those actions themselves.

  45. ryan Says:

    daily show writers must read yglesias…

  46. Ben Says:

    There are a lot of armchair gunners here.

    I think proposals to arm every ship, put mercenaries on every ship, have all ships travel in convoys, and so on, underestimate just how many ships (most creaky, old, run on the cheap with the cheapest crews they can find) there are, and how big the ocean is. How do you think all that stuff in 99 cent stores gets to the US (admittedly it doesn’t have to go around the Horn of Africa, usually) or all our scraps, waste, and recyclables go to Africa and Asia? It isn’t by paying a penny extra for freight.

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  48. fostert Says:

    Well Ben, your right. I’m willing to let any non-petroleum ship decide what they want to do. They can have security or not. And they’ll take whatever losses they take. But oil tankers and LPG ships are different. There have already been at least two instances where pirates took control of a tanker and didn’t steal anything. They just wanted to learn how to pilot the vessel. Now why would they want to do that? Hmmm. Maybe they want to set it on fire and crash it into a port? We really can’t let that happen, that would be a big mess. And we’re talking about ships that about ten miles to come to a stop. And that’s when they’re trying to stop. By the time we figure out that they’ve been hijacked, we can’t stop them. And, yes, I do know that ships are taken over by local pilots when they get close to port. But that agreement is just an agreement. If someone decides otherwise, what’s going to stop the ship? Those ships need escorts when they’re near populated areas. And by near, I’m talking 100 miles. The rest of the time, the owners can make their own decisions. And look, I live in Colorado. Ain’t no ship gonna crash into Denver. But most people live near coasts. They should be protected.

  49. sean Says:

    The name of this post really annoys me. I’m sorry, but browsing the ICG page for the horn of Africa and Enough’s page on Somalia doesn’t make you a wonk on piracy or the political affairs of the Horn. So you’re not “wonking out” at all, you’re voicing a vague idea you have about an area of the world you know very little about. Which would be fine, if you weren’t telling me that you’re a Somalia wonk.

    This is a common theme in the blogosphere today. Don’t get me wrong: I think it’s great that you bring up issues like Somali piracy that don’t get enough coverage, but I’m just annoyed by the word “wonk” being thrown around all the time. From this entry, I can move on over to the “wonk room,” or I can cool my heels at Ezra Klein’s blog, where he tells us (while Cool James no doubt cringes), “Mama said wonk you out.”

    Give me a break, guys. I think you’re letting stories like the Economist one in the earlier post get to your head. Sure you seem like smart guys, but if you want to “wonk out” on Somali pirates, why don’t you go do a couple years of doctoral research on Somali clan structures or maritime conflict or international piracy law.

    I think it’s great when people are intellectually curious. I like the fact that I know a little bit about the literature of Argentina and ethnic tensions in Uzbekistan. But to pretend that I’m an expert on, or even exceptionally well read in, either of these areas would be intellectually dishonest, even though I’ve read a ton of Borges and have spent some time in Samarkand. It’s one thing to fire off a blog entry or two or make a good impression at a cocktail party. It’s quite another to sew myself a merit badge of wonk.

  50. Don Williams Says:

    Re Ben’s comment “underestimate just how many ships (most creaky, old, run on the cheap with the cheapest crews they can find) there are, and how big the ocean is.”
    ————–
    The oceans are big but most shipping travels in well-defined channels — look at the offshore maps.

    As I recall, there are three approachs into New York City — with buoys defining lanes like Interstates to separate incoming from outgoing lanes — and the entrance begins roughly 80? miles out off Nantucket. I’ve seen reports that Coast Guard/Navy ships board and inspect selected incoming
    ships –and Navy Seals check under their hulls for radiation.

    Even in the Middle of the Ocean, there are shipping channels that you want to head into if you are in trouble and need help. Channels tend to be defined by shortest distance between major ports or canals. So its more like the air traffic control corridors.

    I’m fairly sure our Coast Guard notices if any ship is wondering around off our coast outside those channels. During the Cold War, I worked on the Ocean Surveillance Information System that the Navy has (as a contractor employee). See
    http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/systems/obu.htm and
    http://www.fas.org/spp/military/program/surveill/noss.htm

    The entrance to the Suez Canal is actually more of a chokepoint –that’s why the Somali pirates can easily find prey.

  51. Sean Peters Says:

    Couple of things: as a former naval officer who spent some time sailing in this part of the world, I have to agree with the folks who say this problem is easier dealt with at sea. If Somalia were like San Diego, Matt might be right… but it ain’t San Diego. And dealing with pirates at sea isn’t actually that difficult. The fact that pirates could be anywhere on the ocean is irrelevant – you only care about them when they’re actually near your merchant shipping. So get your merchants to do a better job of staying within the protected corridor (my understanding is that compliance with this has been indifferent at best) or go all-out and do escorted convoys. That’s a lot easier than trying to establish order in Somalia.

    And for the folks advocating a return to the idea of letters of marque – sorry, but it’s against international law – LOMs are legally equivalent to piracy themselves. Not to mention the fact that they’re terrible policy – too many incentives for bad behavior.

  52. Maineiac Says:

    I am a captain on a merchant ship that transits the Gulf of Aden. Most of the comment here are uninformed. #46 Ben is right, lots of comments with regards to pirates fit into the armchair gunner category. Why can’t the U.S. military control Afghanistan? – too big too few troops. Same problem with controlling the oceans. Read William Langewische’s The Outlaw Sea.

  53. Don Williams Says:

    Re Ben’s comment “I think proposals to arm every ship, put mercenaries on every ship, have all ships travel in convoys, and so on, underestimate just how many ships (most creaky, old, run on the cheap with the cheapest crews they can find) there are, and how big the ocean is.”
    —————–
    I kinda suspect the pirates don’t go after the old, rusty decrepit boats –what’s the point of kidnapping a poor person?

    You can buy a Lee-Enfield rifle, armor piercing 303 amno and tracer rounds for around $150. Probably less in Africa. The bolt action Lee Enfield has an 8 round magazine and with some practice can be fired almost as fast as a semi-automatic H&K 91.

    The 303 round is almost equal in power to our 3006 and the NATO 7.62. The Brits created a global empire with the Lee Enfield — hunted bear in Canada, Tiger in India and Zulus in Africa.

    You shoot the pirates’ motor out and then fire some tracers into the pool of gasoline.

    Or you can instead get on all fours and accept the “Jolly Roger”.

  54. Don Williams Says:

    Re Sean Peters’ comment “And for the folks advocating a return to the idea of letters of marque – sorry, but it’s against international law”
    ———
    Haven’t you gotten David Addington’s memos? We don’t need no stinkin’ international law — it interferes with the constitutional powers of the unitary executive.

    “LOMs are legally equivalent to piracy themselves.”

    I know –that’s why I like them. But it’s not piracy –
    it’s “privateering”. Look at how we buttfucked Lloyds of London during the American Revolution.

    Just as when Navy Officers steal boats it’s not piracy, it’s “Commandeering”.

  55. Don Williams Says:

    Yes, I know some of the fuckers have RPGs — but those are primarily a concern if they hit the rudder or near the waterline –and I think on a small, jumping boat the pirates would have to get within 50 yards to score with that accuracy. Whereas the Lee Enfield on a stable merchant ship can reach out to 400 yards easily.

    Re night attacks, night vision scopes are less than $1000.

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    Thank :D Glenys.


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