Warning Shot From Tel Aviv
Israeli Foreign Minister and likely Prime Minister Tzipi Livni wastes no time in offering a warning shot to Barack Obama, claiming that opening a dialogue with Iran would signal “weakness.”
To my mind what would signal weakness would be to reverse a major, high-profile campaign pledge that was attacked and defended in both the primary and general elections in response to a foreign politician’s statements and implicit threats of domestic political consequences. Meanwhile, with Obama securing nearly eighty percent of the Jewish vote, and new progressive Israel lobby J-Street helping power pro-peace members of congress to victory, Obama has every reason to think he can afford politically to follow through on his agenda. This is one of those issues where bold measures can be effectively married to bipartisan gestures in order to bring about lasting change.
67 Responses to “Warning Shot From Tel Aviv”
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November 6th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
Zippy seems like a nice person, and I hear she ran a very nice safehouse in Paris back in the day, but it’s kind of silly getting shots across the bow from someone who couldn’t even form a fucking government.
Someone pulling a stunt like this is likely just trying to play to Israeli domestic politics. If and when she actually forms a coalition, then we’ll know for whom she speaks.
.
November 6th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
It doesn’t say much for Israel’s system of government that Tzipi Livni is anywhere near a seat of power.
Here’s memo for Ms. Livni- in our system of government, Obama won’t need to run for re-election for another four years.
And when he does, most of us will be pretty darn uninterested in what some foreign government thinks we should do about it.
November 6th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
Reading the link, I really don’t think her statements were intended as a warning or shot across the bow. It sounds like she was just mouthing some pretty typical tough sounding rhetoric during a campaign. Nothing to get excited over.
November 6th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
Sigh.
Why do I suspect that a very nice looking piece of tail is about to drop a hankerchief in front of Obama in the near future?
Any word on how Monica Lewinski is doing with that S Daniel Abraham’s Slimfast Diet?
November 6th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Countdown for SLC’s arrival –a la Kramer (Seinfeld).
Three, two, one…
November 6th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
Re Don Williams
Senator Obama prefers the dark meat.
November 6th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
What Grand Moff said — I don’t think Obama needs any lectures from someone too politically inept to even form a government. Run along and play now, Tzipi, the adults have things to discuss.
November 6th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
Dear Tzipi,
Rahm and I would like to invite you to a Seder at the White House, but he wants you to sit at the kids’ table.
Shalom,
Barack
November 6th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
The only dialog the US should have with the mullahs in Tehran is with 15 megaton bombs.
November 6th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
The only dialog the US should have with the mullahs in Tehran is with 15 megaton bombs.
Pussy.
Real men speak thermonuclear, and have testes like beryllium/polonium spheres.
.
November 6th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Shas and Likud are letting it be known that Livni’s coalition talks collapsed largely over her stance on Jerusalem, and she’s entering the campaign there as the realistic peace-with-Palestinians candidate. However, she needs to look tough elsewhere, and has apparently picked Iran.
November 6th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
This is pretty clearly for domestic consumption, given that Tzipi’s got an election to win, and Likud to out-hawk; Kristol et al. are presumably on the phone to Bibi right now, though if Bibi has a clue, he tells them to fuck off.
In the meantime, SLC remains a shitstain coward who is as Jewish as Barney the White House dog.
November 6th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
A 15 MT bomb would have to be a thermonuclear device.
November 6th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
A 15 MT bomb would have to be a thermonuclear device.
4.184×10^18 Joules or bust, biyatch!
.
November 6th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
She’s talking tough because she’s perceived as a lightweight wimp, and she’s running against Bibi Netanyahu, who is what we Americans would call a neocon. She can’t lay on the peace talk too thick.
And Tzipi ought to know something about weakness. I thought that’s what Kadima was the Israeli word for? Ever since Olmert took over it’s been one embarrassment after another. But let’s not forget that Netanyahu would be way, way worse.
November 6th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
I figure Obama should offer peace branches in some directions and show a big stick in some others.
IMO, Obama should show a BIG peace branch to Cuba (an EXCELENT way to gain international political capital, both in Lat Am and in Europe) by dismantling existing limitations against the country.
I would then use that international political capital to push back in the Middle East when needed.
November 6th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
Since when did competence with the American Jewish lobby = competent policy with Israelis? If you fool some of the Jews once in November, does that mean Israel is quieted? She is the sitting foreign minister. Listen up.
November 6th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
Since when did competence with the American Jewish lobby = competent policy with Israelis? If you fool some of the Jews once in November, does that mean Israel is quieted? She is the sitting foreign minister. Listen up.
And he’s the President-elect – so your point is what again?
November 6th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
Hmmm…I wonder what his chief of staff, you know, the guy who lost his right middle finger to a Syrian tank while in the Israeli army thinks of this comment? You think he’ll lead Obama astray?
November 6th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Re pseudonymous in nc
The trouble with Mr. pseudonymous is that he breathes in but he doesn’t breathe out.
Re Lev
Actually, Bibi is nothing but a big noise who talks tough but acts timidly. Always remember that nobody shook Yasir Arafats’ hand more often then Bibi. As the late columnist Stuart Alsop said about Jeb Stewart Magruder, Bibi is an example of a phony tough. My man Uzi Landau is an example of a real tough who is not afraid to brandish the big stick when required.
November 6th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
I don’t give a shit if this is intended for domestic political consumption in Israel, this Zippy person and everyone like her can just STFU.
I’m sick and damn tired of America’s foreign policy being held hostage to Israel while Israel refuses to deal as it must with the Palestinians — that means a viable Palestinian state, a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem, and all the fucking Lubavitchers the hell out of their illegal settlements in the West Bank. At a minimum.
Yeah, I know, that’s incredibly hard to do, and won’t happen without a lot of heartache and misery all around, but it must happen, sooner or later.
In the meantime, we need a détente with Iran, whether Israeli and American rightwingers approve or not. I have confidence that Obama will accomplish that.
I guess that makes me some sort of Islamofascist terror-symp or some damn thing. I don’t care. Our side’s in charge now and we’re going to try it our way.
November 6th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Didn’t I just see a news article about Bush opening an office in Iran?
http://www.newsweek.com/id/167904
Maybe Israel should talk to Bush about that one?
November 6th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
If I were the President-Elect, I’d tell Tzipi to zip it unless she wants to see Israel’s earmark appropriations cut. The U.S. has a big budget deficit– we need to trim expenses!
November 6th, 2008 at 6:47 pm
Re Gitai
Congressman Emmanel lost his finger as a teenager long before his service in an IDF reserve unit.
November 6th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
Who the fuck is SLC, and why is he advocating genocide?
November 6th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
I don’t know what the hell Tzipi is thinking. Even if that’s what she thinks, she should never say any such thing. Now if Obama enters talks with Iran, she loses face, and if Obama avoids talks, he loses face. Her only hope is that Obama ignores her statement and everyone forgets about it. With Emmanuel on his staff, I don’t think that’s likely.
November 6th, 2008 at 7:07 pm
The problem with SLC is that he’s a Kahanist goy without the balls to do the slaughter he so desires for himself.
November 6th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
This is why Barack picked Rahm for Chief of Staff.
How does one say “Fuck you, bitch” in Hebrew?
November 6th, 2008 at 7:45 pm
Re: A 15 MT bomb would have to be a thermonuclear device.
True, and there probably are no weapons of that size any more. The only excuse for that large a bomb was inaccuracy in targeting, but now that we can target a cat’s whisker on the other side of the globe we’ve downsized the nuclear firepower accordingly, and most of our H-Bombs are 1 megaton and under.
November 6th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
Shouldn’t there be lightning shooting from her fingers? Man, I wish I were better at photoshop…
November 6th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
RE JonF’s comment “but now that we can target a cat’s whisker on the other side of the globe we’ve downsized the nuclear firepower accordingly, and most of our H-Bombs are 1 megaton and under.”
————-
Partially true — the reason for going to smaller warheads being that pressure is rapidly dissipated with distance (roughly D CUBED.). Hence, a 10 Megaton only exerts damage out to roughly twice the distance of a 1 Megaton bomb.
Hence, we went with the MIRV effect — a shotgun pattern of three 335 Kt warheads with overlapping pressure zones. Plus a relatively greater amount of energy in small warheads is emitted in the thermal pulse — hence a firestorm that sucks up all the air in case any of the little Chinese kids are hiding in underground shelters.
However, a 15 megaton might be useful if you had to knock out deep underground shelters buried in certain geological formations.
I don’t know if we secretly have any warheads in that range — I thought our largest warhead is Trident II 400 Kt.
Russia’s largest is, I think, the SSN8 at 750 kt.
Even the Chinese largest warhead is the 3 Mt DF5 –which could certainly rattle Dick Cheney’s coffe cup in Mt Weather or Raven Rock.
November 6th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
I never thought I’d say this, but that’s actually unfair to neocons. Netanyahu’s just an asshole. Remember in the 90s when he started screaming that if America was a real friend, we’d let Jonathan Pollard out?
November 6th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
As if “J-street” had anything to do with those people winning.
November 6th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
The funny thing is, they really don’t need any help with this. If they thought Iran was actually an existential threat, they could destroy it all by themselves.
The really aggravating thing here is that we’re supposed to believe Israel’s incapable of defending themselves.
Iran is most certainly not an existential threat to the US, so why should we handle them?
Any greybeards left from the Irgun or the Stern Gang must be ashamed of how pathetic their team’s become. Begin’s probably turning over in his grave.
Not to mention Ben Gurion, Golda, and even Rabin.
When those guys (and one tough gal) had a problem, they’d take care of it. Or they’d just shut the hell up, because it’s not really an existential threat at all
November 6th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
So we give them $80b and get back what? Attitude? That is, when they aren’t selling our technology to China.
Cut ‘em off I say.
November 6th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
That photo is crying out for a caption contest.
“We’ve got Iran by the breasts, I tell you.”
November 6th, 2008 at 11:31 pm
Who is she to be making ultimatums?
Allies of Israel other than the U.S. include,…um, um, ….um, ………………………………..
…Sorry, I am drawing a blank. I’ll get back in a little.
November 7th, 2008 at 12:36 am
What would actually be weak is not to go back on a campaign idea if once in office and with the advantage of the greater perspective you conclude that the precise course of action you won approval for would not be prudent. After all, the license Barack Obama earned from Americans to talk with Iran is not an iron-clad commitment to do so. Obama was clear that he wanted conditionally to talk with Iran and stressed the preparations necessary. Slow-walking this is almost exactly what he described as his policy in the debates. If at some given time in 2009 or 2010 the preparations for meeting with some particular world leader appear to be progressing distinctly slower than Matt or others might have expected, Obama will really have absoltely nothing to answer for. What he saud was that he would be *willing* to commit to meeting with these countries or people. Saying that you are willing to make a commitment is absolutely not the same as making the commitment. There are any number of things these leaders may do or not do that could lead to Obama’s willingness to commit to meetings not to come to fruition as an actual commitment. This would not even be the abrogation of a campaign promise. And it may not even be the continuation of preconditions, which Obama did explicitly reject. Preconditions relate to the substance of prospective negotiations; ie you must stop enriching uranium before we agree to meet to discuss what we will offer you if you agree to verifiably stop enriching uranium. That type of stance Obama has clearly and rightly rejected. However, Obama may set certain other conditions that Iran must meet in order for his general willingness to talk to lead to actual commitments and, eventually, talks. For example, he may announce one day soon after taking office that he is willing to begin to discuss plans for official low-level meetings, PROVIDED Iran utterly cease any activities that aid attacks on U.S. soldiers in Iraq. He may not — who knows? But if he did, this would not be a precondition. The legitimacy of U.S. presence in Iraq is an exclusive matter for discussion between the United States and the duly elected government of Iraq. Iran’s opinion on the matter is utterly immaterial. Obama may decide that the United States simply can not negotiate with a government that in engaged in attacks or is aiding attacks on U.S. troops in a country where they are formally welcome. This would not make him any less willing to engage with Iran on the nuclear issue without preconditions. It would simply be a statement of what America can accept as a subject for negotiation (enrichment), and what it cannot (the aid of attacks on U.S. troops in a sovereign country whose legitimate government sanctions their presence).
If Obama took the course of action I describe (And again: who knows!), most Americans would applaud his show of wise restrain in the wielding of the vast license that they had granted him on this question. Only a very few would see it as the reversal of a clear campaign commitment.
November 7th, 2008 at 1:05 am
Don Williams sayeth:
Actually we do. The US keeps 50 B53 gravity bombs in active storage : 9 Mt each.
And that, in turn is partially true. For very powerful weapons, dissipation is not in r^-3 but tends towards r^-2 by confinement on the “top” of the atmosphere. At those yields, the shockwave cannot dissipate further in altitude. The mechanical wave then propagates as a Raleigh wave or L wave, if you will.
Of course, in practice, it’s a bit of a jumbled mess of independent shockwaves traveling over multiple paths, not a perfectly coherent L wave. Those waves can travel over hundred of miles and cohere locally to create damages somewhere while leaving intact other places closer to the epicenter. That was demonstrated with the 50 Mt test by the Soviets in 1961. This is far from optimal.
But, essentially, the more powerful the weapon, the closer to a L wave you get. In particular, it would be possible to design a multistage weapon with a fairly directional terminal stage, essentially shaped as a pancake. The amplification ratio of that last stage would be modest, of course. This fuel configuration is not favorable at fully maximizing the yield. But it would allow for a fairly uniform vertical impulse, exiting the atmosphere over the whole height of the column at once. The effects would be very interesting with utter destruction at a given yield over a much larger area than suggested by the usual formula.
And that was all for today’s lecture of “Physics of Armageddon 301″. Do not forget the mid-term in two weeks. I’ll be available at my office tomorrow 2 to 5. And before you leave, I’m very pleased to announce that the course material for “Biology of Ragnarök 318″ has finally been approved of the Faculty of End Times Studies and it will be offered next semester. A very solid backgrounder on general epidemiology and very exiting stuff about triggered viruses. I’m sure most of you will benefit greatly from that new course, not to mention the entertainment value. Registrations will be opened shortly.
Have a good day.
November 7th, 2008 at 1:25 am
I think Iran getting nukes is the most concerning aspect of Obama’s election. He said that he wouldn’t let that happen in the debates, but we will see. If he succeeds through diplomacy, that’s great.
November 7th, 2008 at 7:40 am
hope that you keep reporting and following up on this issue. I signed the petition because I can’t think of anything that is more important to the long-term health of our country, our environment, and our economy than a smart transportation policy, and especially
November 7th, 2008 at 7:40 am
Re Don Williams & Fifi
Actually, we did, at one time, have some H bombs with a theoretical yield of 15 megatons (they were never tested; I think that the largest test we made was about 6 megatons). The B52 bomber was originally designed to carry 4 such bombs. One of the reasons for not continuing with the design of such weapons is that there are no ICBMs capable of delivering such a weapon (the old Atlas 2 was capable of delivering a 5 megaton bomb). And as Mr. Williams points out, MIRV missiles are undoubtedly more likely to penetrate antimissile defenses then a single missile.
As for the Ruskies, they once tested an H bomb with a measured yield of 57 megatons which was totally impractical as no missile or bomber was capable of delivering such a weapon (just for the information of interested parties, there is a video available on Youtube showing the detonation of this bomb).
November 7th, 2008 at 8:02 am
Tzipi,
Perhaps if you would cease and desist from selling our stuff to the Chinese and conducting a massive spying operation on the United States, then we can talk my friend?
November 7th, 2008 at 9:17 am
Has there been a response from the Obama campaign to this?
November 7th, 2008 at 9:27 am
Yeah, Grand moff nails it at comment 1 – this is obviously a statement designed to shore up domestic “toughness” credentials and build a majority coalition. When/if she does, then real positions can be negotiated.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Russia is believed to have some Mod-6 SS-18 ICBMs armed with a single warhead between 6 and 20 megatons presumably for hardened targets.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:08 am
I think Obama needs to point out as bluntly as necessary that Israel does not dictate U.S. foreign policy. That will do us some good in the Middle East and elsewhere and rain on the parades of the imperialistic factions in Israeli politics. Until realists willing to make reasonable deals and stick to them come to power in Israel, no real progress will be made. Propping up Israeli right-wingers is useless or worse, and being seen as their tool is extremely harmful to U.S. interests.
November 7th, 2008 at 11:36 am
It’s been a long time since I’ve read Dark Sun, but the first H-bomb test (might have been Mike) weighed in at around 20MT. It was well over the calculated yield due to some funky nuclear chemistry that hadn’t been taken into account that ended up boosting the neutrons, and hence the yield of the fission element. Something like the hydrogen turning into lithium or some such. Everyone should read both of Rhodes’ books.
That 50MT Soviet bomb test supposedly was a dialed down version of a device that was capable of 100MT. Thing was the size of a small school bus.
November 7th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
What an endearing photo of her you’ve chosen!
I was wondering why Steve Sailer liked you. After all, what do you two have in common?
Now I know.
Look, I’m no fan of Livni’s and I dislike the fact that lobbyists for Israel are making themselves repugnant to the American populace by utilizing the same backrooms that ALL dirty moneyed-lobbyists use – just somewhat more effectively. But at the end of the day, your choice of words, focus and photographing indicate that there may be some visceral antisemitic illness that’s taken up lodging in your cranium. And that’s sad.
November 7th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Remind me again, who the hell is she to give warning to the president of the United States?
I mean seriously, who the hell cares what a loser in Israel THINKS about America’s foreign policy?
November 7th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
mnuez, you do realize Mr. Yglesias is Jewish, don’t you?
Or do you think maybe he’s one of those “self-loathing Jews” I heard about on that one Curb Your Enthusiasm episode?
Talk about straining at a gnat (there’s my New Testament erudition showing)!
November 8th, 2008 at 5:16 am
Yglesias still doesn’t get it – and probably never will.
Obama has already EXPLICITLY SAID that he is going to attack Iran if they do not give up ALL enrichment and ALL centrifuges on their soil.
And they are not going to do that.
What part of that doesn’t Matt get? Just about all of it, as usual.
Obama says it explicitly:
1) He will not allow Iran to have any centrifuges or enrichment on Iranian soil.
2) He will not take military action off the table.
3) He will not allow the UN to veto a US attack on Iran.
4) He will engage in an Iranian blockade – an act of war.
Anything more you want to know about Obama being EXACTLY THE SAME AS BUSH?
Rivals Split on U.S. Power, but Ideas Defy Labels
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/23/us/politics/23policy.html?_r=3&oref=slogin&pagewanted=all
Obama: Iran’s Pursuit of Nukes Is Unacceptable
http://news.antiwar.com/2008/11/07/obama-hits-out-at-iran-closemouthed-on-tactics/
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