The Napolitano Future
There’s some interest in what becoming Homeland Security Secretary would mean for Janet Napolitano’s prospects as a Senate candidate. I would imagine that it will only mean good things. Nothing about running DHS prevents her from running for Senate in 2010 or, indeed, from running against John Kyl in 2012. Indeed, being at DHS is probably better to set up a 2012 run, and given that John McCain says he’s not retiring, that’s her better shot.
But beyond all that, note that she’s getting out as governor of Arizona while the going is still good. Being a governor of any state in 2009 is going to be ugly. It’s going to be all about cutting spending and raising taxes, while dealing with increased demand for public assistance and in all likelihood rising crime rates. Arizona was a major real estate bubble state, so it’s going to be especially unfun. It’s also a state that’s been in some respects benefiting economically from the war in Iraq, making things even worse. She’s very popular right now, though, and if she gets out and manages to bring about some improvements at DHS she’ll stay popular.
42 Responses to “The Napolitano Future”
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November 20th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
It’s also a state that’s been in some respects benefiting economically from the war in Iraq…
How so?
November 20th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Being a governor of any state in 2009 is going to be ugly.
Well, looking at that photo, she’s obviously no Sarah Palin— but frankly, that seems a bit beside the point.
November 20th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
I totally said all that in the comments of the first Napolitano post. I deserve public intellectual cred!
November 20th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
At least she did not base her popularity on taxing huge oil company profits to spread around to her constituents only to watch oil prices collapse just as you were making sure your state would no longer receive billions in earmarks from the feds.
November 20th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
I agree with the post completely. If she leaves, she’s dodging a bullet big-time and leaving it all to her Republican replacement, Jan Brewer.
I don’t quite get the benefit of the Iraq war piece, but the Arizona Home Depot stores have been raking it in on the border fence project! cha-CHING! Another pallet of white pickets and make it snappy, Jose!
November 20th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
It ought to prevent her from running in 2010. You can’t sign up for a one-year stint and then expect to be taken seriously. She’s in it for at least three years.
November 20th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Agree with Ray – this definitely means she has given up on 2010 and probably has an eye for 2012. Depending on how well she does, it may even be an audition for a bigger gig in 2012 – I have a friend who is convinced the Dems won’t let Biden stay on as VP past one term, since they don’t want to find themselves in the position Repubs did this past cycle come 2016.
November 20th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Marginally, and her leaving will put the state completely in the hands of Republicans.
Reactionary Republicans of the ’starving it and drowning it in the bathtub takes too long, I’ll just shoot it repeatedly in the head’ kind, the ones who think that the R’s lost because they didn’t go conservative enough.
One of them told the University of Arizona president “I don’t know why we spend any money at all on those Universities…people graduate, and then they just go somewhere else instead of staying here!”
Arizona will be screwed. Much of that population increase was construction workers, loan officers, real estate agents and other people associated with the housing bubble.
Now it’s popped, they’re going to move along to the next place to fuck up.
At the very least expect that Arizona’s economy will lag the rest of the country by at least a year or two, if not more.
Their only economic soluton is to cut taxes and cut spending. I’m glad I have a mountain bike, it’ll be the only way to get around once the roads crumble to rutted dirt trails.
Not that i’ll be getting anywhere, jobless and sitting in my house that will be worth all of $2.95.
And you know what? in 2010 they’ll just elect them some MORE Rethugs because that’s just what these assholes do.
November 20th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Wait a second–she’s the one responsible for an immigration policy no one likes, she’s responsible if any disaster isn’t handled perfectly, and she’s responsible for either deploying or eliminating the ridiculous National Threat Advisory system? Yeah, she’s going to come out great!
November 20th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Nothing about running DHS prevents her from running for Senate in 2010.
Are you kdding Matt? Ray is right. This has to and does take her out of the ‘10 race.
While Matt’s point about the grim task facing governors is well taken, I’m not sure taming the bureaucratic beast that is DHS is an easy road to success and adoration either.
But just wondering…has Napolitano actually expressed a desire to run for the Senate? When handicapping Senate races/match-ups, idle speculation tends to lead people to sitting governors (because those are the names people know). Regardless of whether that Governor is actually interested.
Mark Warner and a few others notwithstanding, I believe there are just as many examples of politicians going in the other direction (frustrated by Washington…want to be chief executive). To wit: Corzine, Kempthorne of Idaho, and others I’m not remembering right now.
November 20th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
The great majority of defaulted foreclosure dollars were lost in the four “sand states:” Arizona, Nevada, California, and Florida. Proximity to the Mexican border is not a coincidence.
November 20th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Hmm, Arizona hasn’t had a governor enter and leave office in a normal way since Jack Williams left office in 1975. Maybe next time.
November 20th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
Señor Sailer, it’s worth pointing out that Florida isn’t particularly close to the Mexican border. And that other neo-Mexican states like Rhode Island and Michigan also have high foreclosure rates.
November 20th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Napolitano’s departure puts Arizonans in the hands of Jan Brewer, who is a nut. Pity us.
Steve Sailer, Florida is not anywhere near the Mexican border!!! Just because it is full of people with Spanish surnames does not mean it is full of Mexicans. You give us ignorant, lazy gabachos a bad name.
In fact, states near the Mexican border are California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas, as can be easily verified from a so-called “map.” California has a lot of foreclosures in the Central Valley, which isn’t even close to Mexico, although it does have a lot of farmworkers. And foreclosures in the warm states have to do with over-building in those states due to genuine, legal citizens migrating there and getting too damn enthusiastic.
November 20th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Well, the only thing between Florida and Mexico is a large body of water. And we all know how those lazy Mexicans love a nice refreshing swim on their way to leech off our precious American bodily fluids. Excuse me, I mean welfare benefits.
November 20th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
You are totally and completely right, Matt. And it’s not often that I feel that sensation so emphatically. I think a run against Kyl will be much better for her anyway — I even feel sort of bad thinking that she might beat McCain is two years. Let the old guy live out his days in the Senate, nursing his wounds. Plus, John Kyl is a dunce. He’s everywhere on TV these days, kind of freaking me out with the saturation of his public image.
I also think that with the state Homeland Security is in right now, it’s going to require a very, very bright person to clean up the mess.
November 20th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
If anyone can do a good job in that position, it will be her. And it’s certainly true that the Arizona budget will be a challenge next year (perhaps a $1 billion shortfall that may require raising taxes) and the next ($3 billion). But my guess is that this means the Senate is no longer an option in either 2010 or 2012. Had the Governor stayed put, the natural move would have been to run against Sen. McCain in 2010. A run in 2010 is not a viable opition after two short years at DHS and so soon after vacating the Governor’s chair. The Republican opposition would cast her as having left the state in the lurch in a time of budgetary crisis. I’d idly speculate about a few years at DHS and then a turn as U.s. Attorney following Holder or perhaps even a seat on the U.S. Supreme Court. Prior to becoming Governor she served as both Arizona Attorney General and U.S. Attoreny for Arizona, and before that was a prominent private practice attorney.
November 20th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Called….the Gulf of Mexico! So they’re basically neighbors.
November 20th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
This means that even if Martin and Franken win, and Lieberman sticks with the Dems, we’d STILL need some breakaway Repubs to halt a filibuster.
November 20th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
Alameda: Janet Napolitano is a sitting Governor previously assumed to be eyeing a Senate run at the end of her term in 2010, rather than an incumbent Senator. Her departure would elevate a Republican to Arizona Governor, but not affect the composition of the U.S. Senate.
November 20th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Matt, I am curious about why you think that rising crime rates are likely in Arizona (and elsewhere, I assume). The only reason I raise this is that this morning NPR had a piece whose message was that crime rates do not necessarily rise during economic hard times…
November 20th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
Bruce J makes some very good points. We have some true nutcases in our State Leg and with Brewer at the helm we are in for some trouble. Matt is right when he says it is going to be no fun being a governor for the next few years, but don’t expect too much in AZ when it comes to raising taxes. Services are going to be slashed, costs are going to be passed down to counties and municipalities (which are already hurting) and I fear that our Department of Environmental Quality is in real trouble. But as bad as it is going to be for us, our loss is the country’s gain.
November 20th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
I tremble for my state when I reflect that Jan Brewer is next in line for the governorship.
November 20th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
The state will become a toxic, bankrupt cesspool filled with thieves stabbing each other and proudly bragging that they won’t push 1 for English. Thanks a lot, Obama.
November 20th, 2008 at 11:47 pm
This is very bad news for Arizona.
But, I must object to the idea that because McCain is running again in 2010 that it somehow diminishes her chances if she were to run for that seat. Janet is much more popular than McCain, at least right now, and McCain is deeply unpopular among some segments of the population here, which isn’t much talked about nationally. Janet would beat McCain in 2010 if she runs, which is obviously unlikely at this point.
November 21st, 2008 at 11:49 am
Time to get out of Arizona while the getting is good.
November 21st, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Um, for all of those bewailing the fate of Arizona with Governor Napolitano gone, don’t forget that the the governorship has a term limit. So this was going to happen sooner or later, and given the stupid, bigoted fuckwittery of your electoral majority in most other matters, you were going to soon end up with Jan Brewer or someone similar anyway. Though perhaps another Democrat can squeak in to Lt. Gov or AG, and then replace the right-wing nutjob incumbents when they are inevitably forced out for flagrant corruption. You’ve made some progess in the House recently, but Shadegg’s decisive win over a well-regarded opponent suggests that you’ve reached a plateau at best, with the legislature results indicating further erosion. Hey, maybe you can stealthily push through an amendment that strips legal rights from Republican voters, gay or straight.
So, what Chica said.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:37 pm
I don’t know any STATISTICS, but one of my coworkers recently moved to AZ to build missiles.
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