Nov 5th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
The Kids Are Allright
Andrew Gelman’s graph of age effects:
Within the African-American community there was, of course, very little age effect but among whites and Hispanics it was quite pronounced.
Looking at this is a reminder that it would be nice if age cohorts were broken down into four-year blocs on the exit polls. If we could compare an 18-21 bloc from 2000 to the 22-25 bloc in 2004 and the 26-29 bloc in 2008 then we could look at cohorts evolving over time. But the way the data’s currently organized, it’s a bit difficult to interpret.
24 Responses to “The Kids Are Allright”
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November 5th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
You would need a huge poll overall to be able to get statistically significant sub-samples with that degree of precision. In anycase, the 30-45 data suggests that it isn’t just that new voters are proBama. Some young voters who used to vote GOP must have switched to the Dems thanks in large part to G. W. Bush.
November 5th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Also, could you give us a link to Gelman’s source data?
November 5th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Data ARE. Plural. Ugh.
November 5th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
Data ARE. Plural. Ugh.
Well, as long as we’ve opened the door of pedantry, the title should be “The Kids Are Alright” if the author’s making an allusion to the Who song.
November 5th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
The Kids Are Allright
Or, maybe, the kids are just naive and inexperienced in the ways of politics, and therefore easily seduced by rhetoric from a charismatic young candidate about change and bringing people together.
November 5th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
I remember eight years ago when pundits argued with some reason that the most “liberal” part of the electoral was the aged. Today, Obama has made a connection with younger voters that will serve him well in 2012.
November 5th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
Data ARE. Plural. Ugh.
Nope. Data is a mass nominal. If you think otherwise you are simply wrong. The original derivation of the word is meaningless.
November 5th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
the kids are just naive and inexperienced in the ways of politics, and therefore easily seduced by rhetoric
Having listened to the rhetoric from Republicans about how progressive taxation is evil, Social Security needs to be privatized, and how Obama is a terrorist-loving socialist Marxist Muslim, I have to lay the charge of naive and gullible on that side of the divide.
I remember eight years ago when pundits argued with some reason that the most “liberal” part of the electoral was the aged. Today, Obama has made a connection with younger voters that will serve him well in 2012.
In part because the aged were part of the FDR coalition. The young now are the going to be the loyal aged Dem voters of the future.
November 5th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
What about Gelman’s other finding about “the kids”–that their turnout wasn’t appreciably higher than in 2004, and was lower than their proportion of the elctorate?
November 5th, 2008 at 6:54 pm
Having listened to the rhetoric from Republicans about how progressive taxation is evil, Social Security needs to be privatized, and how Obama is a terrorist-loving socialist Marxist Muslim, I have to lay the charge of naive and gullible on that side of the divide.
The presence of naivete among Republicans does not imply its absence among Democrats, especially young, inexperienced and impressionable ones.
The problem for Obama of course is that if you sell yourself as the candidate of transformation and people buy that pitch they’ll be expecting you to actually deliver transformation, and when they find out you can’t or won’t do that they will become disillusioned.
November 5th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
The presence of naivete among Republicans does not imply its absence among Democrats, especially young, inexperienced and impressionable ones.
Your outrage of naivete about the young, however, is essentially dishonest, because you never criticized the gullibility and naivete of the McCainist faction, which gobbled up Palin like candy. In short, your complaints are disingenuous, and the problems of naivete and gullibility were much more severe on the other side, with far more damning moral consequences for the exemplars and spokemen selling it.
The problem for Obama of course is that if you sell yourself as the candidate of transformation and people buy that pitch they’ll be expecting you to actually deliver transformation, and when they find out you can’t or won’t do that they will become disillusioned.
They certainly weren’t going to vote for McCain as an alternative! All politicians disappoint, but Obama was a more credible salesman for the change product than McCain was. Furthermore, those young voters were not in any way deluded with dishonest stories about McCain or Obama, as the right wing was.
A more common disillusioning experience, of course, is the one where the candidate you support loses. This one– where you realize that politics is difficult and that change comes a little bit at a time (something Democrats have been fighting for since 2002 when the Dems caved on Iraq) — is simply part of life. Age and experience and knowledge of these problems didn’t stop people like Colin Powell from supporting Obama, as well.
November 5th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
I should note one more thing to give lie to Dishonest Mixner’s claims… Frank Lutz is on Fox right now talking about polls of young voters. What’s their #1 concern when it comes to whom to vote for? It’s actually a very different response than from older voters. The top response from young voters at 30% was “Agrees with you on the issues.”
November 5th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Your outrage of naivete about the young, however, is essentially dishonest, because you never criticized the gullibility and naivete of the McCainist faction,
The issue here is young voters, not “the McCainist faction,” you dishonest hack.
They certainly weren’t going to vote for McCain as an alternative! All politicians disappoint, but Obama was a more credible salesman for the change product than McCain was. Furthermore, those young voters were not in any way deluded with dishonest stories about McCain or Obama, as the right wing was.
More irrelevance. The point is that a lot of them are likely to be very disappointed when Obama fails to live up to their unrealistic expectations of what he is willing and able to do. That disillusionment will play into the hands of Obama’s opponents. The mid-terms are only two years away. 2008 is a lot like 1992.
November 6th, 2008 at 8:14 am
The real question is how will the 20 something view politics in 20 years where the U.S. is a one party state and the real elections are in the primaries and most offices are contests once a generation?
I suspect the first thing that is going to happen is that most issues will be settled in the courts instead of legislatures.
November 7th, 2008 at 11:32 pm
Greg Mankiw also noticed this data – and knows how to link:
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/11/youth-vote-and-gop.html
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