The Iranian Menace
Via Robert Farley, Gareth Porter reports that the surge of warmongering that tried to finger Iran as the main culprit behind weapons being used against the United States in Iraq was bullshit:
The caches that included Iranian weapons thus represented just 2 percent of all caches found. That means Iranian-made weapons were a fraction of one percent of the total weapons found in Shi’a militia caches during that period.
The extremely small proportion of Iranian arms in Shi’a militia weapons caches further suggests that Shi’a militia fighters in Iraq had been getting weapons from local and international arms markets rather than from an official Iranian-sponsored smuggling network.
At this point, one certainly hopes that the election has put war with Iran firmly off the table. But it’s still crucially important to correct the record.
34 Responses to “The Iranian Menace”
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November 17th, 2008 at 10:23 am
“At this point, one certainly hopes that the election has put war with Iran firmly off the table.”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Nah, Bush is going to be the “Jason” of ex-Presidents. Wooden stakes, silver bullets, chainsaws, molten vats of liquid steel, beheading, none of them will drive him from our lives. There was much made last week of Bush’s ability to assert executive privilege in various legal matters even after he’d left office. Next? We’ll discover he can initiate hostilities with another nation sometime in 2014.
November 17th, 2008 at 10:26 am
Does anyone else remember when the US military raided a shaped-charge factory in Basra about a week after all the wingnuts began chanting in unison that EFPs could only come form Iran?
November 17th, 2008 at 10:31 am
When the Bush Administration first made this charge people who knew better called bullshit. But then they kept repeating it for years on end, and, frustratingly, by last year nearly everybody, including these same credible people, took it for granted that Iran was supplying Shia militias, even though no evidence was ever presented.
November 17th, 2008 at 10:35 am
In closely related news, historians have uncovered evidence that beloved television star Mr. Ed was not actually capable of speech.
November 17th, 2008 at 11:18 am
They probably looted their weapons from right there in
Iraq, after Bush and Rumsfeld tried to invade on the cheap and completely failed to secure anything. Thanks again, Rummy!
November 17th, 2008 at 11:19 am
When the Bush Administration first made this charge people who knew better called bullshit. But then they kept repeating it for years on end, and, frustratingly, by last year nearly everybody, including these same credible people, took it for granted that Iran was supplying Shia militias, even though no evidence was ever presented.
You guys are denying reality. Wouldn’t it be rational for them to back their side in Iraq? Lots of people besides the wingnuts – like Crocker – have been saying this. Doesn’t mean there should be a war over it.
On the one hand you guys accuse Bush of giving Iran a friendly regime next door. (One wonders if it is merely for political points).
On the other you deny as fantasy the fact that Iran could be helping its friendly neighbor?
Come on, you can do better than that.
November 17th, 2008 at 11:29 am
Peter K,
The data IS the reality. Less than one percent of weapons found in Iraqi militant’s weapon caches can be sourced to Iran. Whether or not you can now re-arrange your own internal mental map of reality to accomodate the data is your problem.
Regards, C
November 17th, 2008 at 11:46 am
Peter K,
“Their side in Iraq” is, mainly, SCIRI and Dawa. Or, they used to be known as “SCIRI and Dawa.” Today, they are known as “the Iraqi government.”
It would be most irrational for the Iranians to support anti-government Shiite insurgents.
November 17th, 2008 at 11:57 am
On the one hand, we have actual data from the U.S. military indicating that Iranian made weapons constitute a very small fraction of weapons being used by Shi’a militias in Iraq.
On the other hand, we have Peter K. dismissing any fact-based attempts to point out the bullshit exagerrations of the neocons because it would be “rational for [Iran] to back their side.”
Look, all along there has been a concerted propaganda campaign with the goal of creating the impression that Iran is flooding the Iraqi streets with guns and explosives to slake their lust for U.S. blood. Nevermind the fact that the messangers pushing this meme are utterly devoid of any credibility; data from our own military (not the socialist NY Times)shows this to be false.
It seems that it is you who could do better.
November 17th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
The caches that included Iranian weapons thus represented just 2 percent of all caches found. That means Iranian-made weapons were a fraction of one percent of the total weapons found in Shi’a militia caches during that period.
Frankly, given the long border with Iran and the ties between the Shiite militias, it’s suprising that it’s only two percent. Even with no Iranian involvement whatsoever you’d figure there’d be more than two percent through day to day cross-border leakage.
You guys are denying reality. Wouldn’t it be rational for them to back their side in Iraq?
It is rational, and they are backing their side in Iraq — except that their side in Iraq is the official Iraqi government, not the Sunni insurgents.
November 17th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
You guys are denying reality. Wouldn’t it be rational for them to back their side in Iraq? Lots of people besides the wingnuts – like Crocker – have been saying this. Doesn’t mean there should be a war over it.
On the one hand you guys accuse Bush of giving Iran a friendly regime next door. (One wonders if it is merely for political points).
On the other you deny as fantasy the fact that Iran could be helping its friendly neighbor?
Come on, you can do better than that.
Peter, many threads later, you still don’t seem to get that Sadr and his boys – the Shia insurgency – are not friends with the Iranians. They’re Shia nationalists.
As everyone else with a brain has pointed out, the ruling United Iraqi Alliance: Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (currently the SIIC), Dawa, and their boys in the Badr Brigade, oh, sorry, I meant the Iraqi Army, are the allies of Iran.
See, we protect the guys that get the most Iranian support. While we fight the people who hate the Ayatollahs’ guts. And the magic continues!
November 17th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
It is rational, and they are backing their side in Iraq — except that their side in Iraq is the official Iraqi government, not the Sunni insurgents.
You guys are morons. Iraq is a complex situation. Even Iran has many different factions who do their own thing. (another fact which argues against war).
Elements in Iran probably are arming anti-American Shia militias who are also anti-government. Iran did give safe haven to Sadr for a bit.
Plus, Iran want us out, so if they acted rationally they’d give arms to anti-American militias. (They’ve also cooperated with Sunni Hamas).
I’d believe Ryan Crocker over those obsesssed with “Neocons.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Crocker
You don’t have to be a rightwing nutball to believe Crocker, who has spoken rationally about Iraq.
November 17th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Iran did give safe haven to Sadr for a bit.
Your point? The Germans allowed Lenin to pass through them back into Russia. But that didn’t mean they supported him, they just wanted to sow chaos.
November 17th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
“Elements in Iran probably are arming anti-American Shia militias who are also anti-government.”
Got evidence? We based this discussion for years on pure speculation. Now we have evidence and you want to keep speculating.
“Iran did give safe haven to Sadr for a bit.”
They did that so he could continue his studies to become an Ayatollah. Sadr has largely been marginalized and he needs better religious credibility to make a comeback. So that’s what he’s been doing. And if an important cleric in Iran is willing to let Sadr in, nobody in the Iranian government will try to stop him. Now there are real questions about whether Sadr will ever be qualified to become an Ayatollah, but he is qualified to study if he wants.
November 17th, 2008 at 7:31 pm
George Kennan’s twisted idiot son O’Reilly continues to repeat this bullshit. Iran is in league with AQI and calls the shots for the Taliban, too.
November 17th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
Matt: “one certainly hopes that the election has put war with Iran firmly off the table.”
Jesus Baron von Christ, Matt, DON’T YOU LISTEN TO OBAMA? AT ALL?
Obama has EXPLICITLY SAID:
1) He will NOT allow Iran to have “any centrifuges”.
2) He will NOT take military action “off the table”.
3) He will NOT allow the UN to prevent the US from taking military action against Iran if they do no comply with his demands.
4) He will do “ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING” to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons (which they are NOT DOING).
What part of this shit can you not comprehend, Matt? Are you fucking DEAF, DUMB and BLIND – or you can’t READ?
What is your fucking problem, Matt?
November 18th, 2008 at 10:44 am
“Bullshit” is not only too strong, it’s irresponsible. You aren’t correcting the record, you’re revising it off of a data point.
First, the article is citing a study using data from a certain time period:
As publicly noted by many senior US military officials at the time, the quantity of EFPs, etc., significantly and drastically dropped off around the same time violence started declining (Summer-Fall 2007). Whether this was due to targeted US interdiction of Iranian ratlines or a deal the Iranians made with government players in Iraq, it happened, and US military officials at the time noted its surprising, rapid decline. They couldn’t quite figure it out, in fact.
A couple of other random data points: the US military has specifically interdicted EFPs and rockets being imported from Iran, and 9 Quods Forces operators were arrested just in the past month coming into the country. (There are more data points of this nature)
EFP technology was initially imported from Iran – its use is limited in captures and geographic area corresponding with Shia militias, and Mahdi militiamen have gone on record with the LA Times indicating that they were receiving assistance from Iran.
Subsequently, EFP factories have been found in Iraq. By the logic of this post and article, does that mean that the technology and know-how didn’t come from Iran because they were subsequently manufactured in-country? Is it a myth being made up by the military, because small proportions were found in sweeps post Jan 2008, 5 months after US officials were noting staggering declines in EFP cache finds and attacks?
As to the proportion of weapons with Iranian manufacturing stamps on them, in isolation, this reveals that a certain proportion of Iranian-manufactured weapons were in Iraq (during the timeframe of the analysis).
Drawing the conclusion that all arms supplied by Qods Forces to Shia militias in Iraq will necessarily be hot from an Iranian weapons factory is an assumption. Qods can very well be savvy enough (as Western intelligence services) to mix up the supply to avoid generating casus belli against Iran (not that evidence of Iranian weapons would generate casus belli, at this point).
Extrapolating this to deny the fact that Iran has been funneling men, know-how and material into the country is a rather large mistake. Debate the scope – but beyond that, such any sweeping denial is objectively incorrect:
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2007/12/irans_ramazan_corps.php
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