Tested
To the surprise of everyone except those of us who’ve been paying attention, it seems the election of Barack Obama is speeding the Iraqi political process along. After all, Obama wants to see American troops leave Iraq. And Iraqis want to see American troops to leave Iraq. So now agreement can be reached:
Iraqi Shiite politicians are indicating that they will move faster toward a new security agreement about American troops, and a Bush administration official said he believed that Iraqis could ratify the agreement as early as the middle of this month.
“Before, the Iraqis were thinking that if they sign the pact, there will be no respect for the schedule of troop withdrawal by Dec. 31, 2011,” said Hadi al-Ameri, a powerful member of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a major Shiite party. “If Republicans were still there, there would be no respect for this timetable. This is a positive step to have the same theory about the timetable as Mr. Obama.”
There are still issues to be worked out, of course, but a United States that’s not driven by neo-imperial fantasies makes it much easier to resolve this.
28 Responses to “Tested”
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November 7th, 2008 at 9:54 am
Who will respect us now that we will have a President who can be expected to honor our agreements? Pitiful! Weak! Naive! We’re DOOOOOOOOOOMED!
/neocon wingnut
November 7th, 2008 at 10:01 am
Just a question: If the Iraqis feel much more comfortable with an Obama administration, why are they rushing to negotiate with Bush’s people now? Wouldn’t they want to wait two months for the Obama administration to come in instead of working with a lame duck Bush administration? Could this possibly show the opposite – that the Iraqis prefer Bush/McCain to Obama?
Just asking!
November 7th, 2008 at 10:04 am
hmm… interesting comments.
http://culturedecoded.wordpress.com/2008/11/06/a-unique-strategy-why-obama-won-and-what-it-means/
November 7th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Trouble is, 2011 is still three friggin’ years away!
November 7th, 2008 at 10:11 am
The real question is, what will our Lame Duck in Chief give up to ensure that his baby remains on life support?
I don’t think the Shi’a are going to budge on an agreement unless there are some significant concessions. After all, security these days seems to be more in the hands of the Iranians than the Americans.
What was that again about the surge working from a strategic standpoint?
November 7th, 2008 at 10:13 am
WRT #2 – That’s not what they’re saying. I think the current agreement expires 12/31/08, so waiting until Inauguration Day isn’t an option. The interesting part is the belief that a McCain or Palin administration could not have been counted on to live up to the new agreement while an Obama administration can. Quite a comment on the damage that has been done to our national credibility over the last 8 years and the potential repair we could see over the next few.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:14 am
2: I think its because the UN mandate for the US to be there runs out at the end of this year. If the years ends without a agreement, the occupation becomes illegal under international law. The Iraqis perhaps fear that this would bring about a more precipitous withdrawal by Obama that could undermine the military power of their regime. The Iraqis want us out, but they may also be afraid of us getting out right now.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:15 am
Any agreement says what it says, it doesn’t matter who negotiated it. How the agreement is interpreted and acted upon is what is important.
An agreement negotiated with the Bush team that stipulates removal of forces over some period as circumstances permit could be interpreted very differently by a McCain administration and an Obama administration. The fact that Bush negotiated it would not matter.
Waiting for Obama to negotiate would not eliminate the “as circumstances permit” caveat. He’s not going to put himself in a position where he must choose between violating an agreement and throwing away the lives of American soldiers. However, they do believe he wants the soldiers out.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:27 am
Studebaker,
I think that just demonstrates that not only are the Iraqis not idiots, but they (the Shi’a and the Iranians) have completely outplayed us.
The mission was always to set up bases in Iraq to “contain” Iran. The Iraqis knew that from the start. Now that the Sunni have effectively been taken out of the picture, they’re consolidating their position and kicking us out. They don’t need us anymore now that they (and Iran) have a handle on the situation.
The real question is going to be what the Arabs have to say about all of this. Saudi, Egypt, Jordan and yes…Syria, can’t be too happy about all of this. Iraq is going to be messy, messy, messy whether we’re there or not. Bravo neocons! 1 trillion dollars for this?
November 8th, 2008 at 9:08 pm
Re: Could this possibly show the opposite – that the Iraqis prefer Bush/McCain to Obama?
It could show a preferrence for Bush, but not for McCain wo is not involved in this in any way at all now.
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