Matthew Yglesias » Razor Thin in MN

Nov 5th, 2008 at 3:08 pm

Razor Thin in MN

Looks like Norm Coleman’s got a 700 vote lead out of over 1.8 million ballots cast. There will be an automatic recount, and I think the provisional ballots wind up coming into play.

Comments
29

29 Responses to “Razor Thin in MN”

crack Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Notice Barkley got the 15% that non-MN pundits thought would disappear and go to Coleman or Franken.
pseudonymous in nc Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
It’s especially conscientious of Mayor Quimby to ask Franken to spare Minnesota taxpayers the cost of a recount. Perhaps he can see if the provider of his DC bachelor pad, free suits and large bundles of cash through his wife’s accounts to foot the bill?
Chris O. Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Over 2.8 million cast. Minnesota has very liberal same-day registration laws so I’m not sure how many provisional ballots there will be.
KCinDC Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Another razor-thin margin in VA-05, which just went from Goode up by 6 votes to Perriello up by 30, though canvassing continues. If we can get rid of Goode, Virginia will have a majority Democratic House delegation to go with its two Democratic senators and its Democratic governor.
Jim W Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
There is one bright spot in terms of the disappointing Senate results. Since we’re several votes away from the 60-vote threshold anyway, there is no reason that Democrats in the Senate shouldn’t strip Lieberman of his seniority, is there?
Charles Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
As much as I want Franken to win this race, I still really wish Ventura had decided to run. Damn that would have been a fun race to watch.
djslippyb Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
Minnesota secretary of the state site has it down to 462 votes now. I think that’s well within the realm of possibility of switching. Of course it could get worse too.

In the 2004 Washington governor race the initial results were 261 for Rossi. After the hand recount it switched to 129 votes for Gregoire. About the same number of votes cast in both these races.
Midwest Product Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Looks like Norm Coleman’s got a 700 vote lead out of over 1.8 million ballots cast.

I believe this should read as “…out of over 2.8 million ballots cast” (1.2 million for Coleman, 1.2 million for Franken, 0.4 million for Barkley).
J.D. Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
Given that Coleman’s margin is somehow shrinking over the course of the day even with 100% precincts reporting (perhaps the precincts have reported, but that doesn’t mean all the votes have been tallied), how sweet would it be if Franken snuck ahead and Coleman were compelled to step back and reject a recount because of his own words.
Eric Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
I was an election judge in Minneapolis this year, so let me offer the following tidbits:

1. I don’t think Minnesota has provisional ballots. I’ve never seen one, anyway. Is this because we have same-day registration, and that covers the people who would have cast provisional ballots? I don’t know. But I worked a low-income precinct with 1100 ballots cast and there were zero provisional ballots. To repeat, I don’t even think Minnesota has them.

2. Minnesota has same-day registration, and all of the absentee and military ballots are actually delivered to the correct precinct and fed into the same counting machine, so they are included in all the original totals. It’s worth noting that same-day registrants receive the same ballot as pre-registered voters, so even if their registration were later called into question, it’s not possible to isolate that ballot from the totals. So a recount, by definition, cannot consider voter registration issues (though I imagine this may be played up as a public relations issue).

3. I believe the Minnesota recounts are performed by hand. Other than just machine failure or typos or other random errors, this is the only reason I would suspect that recount totals might be different, because the optical-scan machines can easily miss votes if the voter doesn’t fill in the oval completely. The machine does beep at you and give you a chance to fix such “undervotes”, but at a busy polling place voters sometimes rush out the door before noticing that the machine flagged a problem with their ballot. When this happens their ballot is cast as marked, and any marks not picked up by the machine will not count. A hand recount, according to the MN SOS, _will_ count marks that show voter intent. In my experience, though, the optical scan machines are fairly reliable, so I wouldn’t expect a gigantic adjustment due to machine vs. hand counts, but 500 votes out of 2 million? That seems entirely possible.
Chris_ Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
Well, if Norm wins at least it will be fair and square.
Matt Weiner Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
how sweet would it be if Franken snuck ahead and Coleman were compelled to step back and reject a recount because of his own words.

I don’t think for a second that that would happen. I mean, that he’d reject the recount just because of his own words.
Midwest Product Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
1. I don’t think Minnesota has provisional ballots. I’ve never seen one, anyway. Is this because we have same-day registration, and that covers the people who would have cast provisional ballots? I don’t know. But I worked a low-income precinct with 1100 ballots cast and there were zero provisional ballots. To repeat, I don’t even think Minnesota has them.

I voted via same-day registration in Minneapolis back in 2006, and as I was asking about the proces I was told that there were no provisional ballots. If someone is already registered in MN, they get their ballot and vote. If someone fills out a same-day registration form and is deemed by the election staff to be a valid voter in their precinct, they get their ballot and vote. If their registration information isn’t considered acceptable (no proof of residency, no registered voter from the same precinct to vouch, etc), they are simply denied a vote outright, NOT given a provisional ballot to fill out.
Jon H Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
COME ON!

I so want to hear Franken’s acceptance speech, which darn well better include “gosh darn it, people like me”.
Jeff M. Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 12:47 am
As a long-time MN election judge and one who works in a supervisory role on Election Day, I’ll just confirm what Eric and Midwest Product had to offer. There are no provisional ballots in MN; that type of ballot has not been deemed necessary by the MN legislature, due to the same-day registration laws.

Wish I had some insights to offer as to the recount procedures, but I only serve on Election Day and haven’t been involved in a recount. I will note that election administrators here have recent experience in performing a recount, due to close judicial races during the September primaries.
tomA Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 10:36 am
The fact Franken didn’t win outright is tarnishing the joy of Obama’s victory for me. The TV was inundated with ads trashing Franken’s character, and sadly that had a real effect. It was pointed out on Mn public radio yesterday that Colman is so well funded that only a candidate like Franken with his connections had a chance against him, yet in the end he couldn’t match the onslaught. There were literally 3 and 4 anti Franken ads in a row. So, we’ll be stuck with Colman forever now.
tkp Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
It’s not improbable that the results switch after the recount. My math could be wrong, but if Franken picks up an extra one vote out of every 5,000 cast, he would have the lead. I don’t know too much about the technology used in MN, but it seems unlikely that it’s perfected to the point that it’s more than 99.98% accurate.

Of course, Coleman could end up increasing his lead by the same logic…
Richard in Cincinnati Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
What about the probably illegal money that Coleman got, is there a law suit going on or are there other ways to defeat this jerk?
I think it shows yet again how pathetic Coleman is in demanding that Franken stop the re-count!
Coleman was one of the hawks [or sheep?] that helped Bush to start the unnecessary Iraq War, which will cost $ 3,000 Billions by the time we repay Red China for the loans!!$$$$
I thought Mn. was more progressive, shocked that they didn’t kick Coleman out regardless of who was running against him!
Caitlin Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
The margin is now at 342 and getting smaller.
Caitlin Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Now it is 236.
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Razor Thin in MN

29 Responses to “Razor Thin in MN”

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