I, Outlier
I should say the reason I picked up Outliers in the first place was that a friend mentioned that he thought it explained something I’d been curious about. Specifically, The Economist proclaimed that Will Wilkinson, Ezra Klein, Megan McArdle, and myself were the public intellectuals of the future. To which I remarked:
I think it would be strange if the main qualification for becoming a high-profile public intellectual in the future is that you had to start a personal blog in 2002 or 2003.
Gladwell’s book is all about why this sort of thing happens. Rob Pitingolo spells out the argument in detail and observes that it’s analogous to Gladwell’s argument about super-rich software entrepreneurs. Except that even successful bloggers don’t really get to be super-rich, and certainly not Bill Gates rich. But it’s a very similar thing where, yes, you need to work hard but also you need to have been the beneficiary of some pretty lucky breaks to even be in a position where you have the possibility of working hard.
37 Responses to “I, Outlier”
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November 30th, 2008 at 8:29 am
how hard would you say blogging is
November 30th, 2008 at 8:45 am
Indeed. I mean, I started a blog in 2003, and got some attention for it, but I’m also fantastically lazy. Thus, no fame for me.
November 30th, 2008 at 8:55 am
I was going to suggest that the Economist was merely giving a masterly display of unbridled British sarcasm, but I didn’t want to make Matthew cry.
November 30th, 2008 at 9:06 am
So when is hard-working Matthew going to waddle down the hall and get around to asking the Obama people (e.g. transition chief Podesta) some tough questions?
Like, why appoint Larry Summers to a senior economic position when Summers had the bad judgment to have CAUSED much of this economic catastrophe.
When thing REALLY turn to shit in about six months, it’s going to be hard to pin the blame on George W/Republicans while you have porcine Larry standing beside you and Rush/Bill reading out all those memos from the Clinton Administration.
Also, why appoint Hillary Clinton to be Secretary of State? If you want to know what Hillary thinks — what’s “good for Israel”– then Why not just go to the source and appoint Israeli billionaire Haim Saban? Cut out the middleman..er..middlewoman.
Or is one of the transitions going from “progressive blogger” to “court scribe”?
November 30th, 2008 at 9:36 am
It must also be borne in mind that we have had many, many “public intellectuals,” or pundits, depending on how you wish to say it, and most of them have quite a negative impact on the public sphere, existing to perpetuate ideologies useful to power.
However, to someone studying topics related to content-free ’success’ type subjects, as long as someone makes it to the pundit / public intellectual level, it’s an ‘achievement’ of some sort.
Look back in history, MattY, look at the archives of U.S. papers from the 1950s or 1960s, and ask yourself which of the gasbags you do, or don’t, want to be like.
Better yet, read an entire chronologically preserved output of a real public intellectual, such as the collected essays, letters and journalism of George Orwell (a 4 volume book set), or download & read the weekly PDF’s of I.F. Stone’s Weekly (sponsored by his estate), or see if an influential friend can track down George Seldes’ “In Fact” newsletter.
November 30th, 2008 at 9:37 am
I think the rapid rise of Nate Silver’s blog provides an instructive example.
Prior to this election cycle, few people apart from baseball stat geeks like myself, who regularly read Baseball Prospectus and were familiar with Nate’s brilliant work with PECOTA, had ever hear of him. Yet as a result of Nate’s incisive political analysis, his blog received widespread attention and acclimation almost overnight.
November 30th, 2008 at 10:28 am
I question anything that uses the word intellectual and Megan McArdle in the same sentence. (and who are the “old” intelelctuals? Kristol, Friedman, Brooks and other such putzes?)
If Gladwell’s thesis is of any use, it should increase the ability to predict an outcome. Can Gladwell’s idea predict success (or increase the probability of success) better than previous models? If not, then what practical significance is there to his anecdotal 20/20 hindsight that, gasp, hard work and luck play a role in success?
What change would one like the world to make due to his insights? Ban Colombians from becoming pilots?
November 30th, 2008 at 11:27 am
I think it would be strange if the main qualification for becoming a high-profile public intellectual in the future is that you had to start a personal blog in 2002 or 2003.
I’d say that it’s less the blog itself and more the hard work and pedigree.
November 30th, 2008 at 11:45 am
I’m pretty surprised at the poor reviews as well. True, he doesn’t make a strong argument and his whoddunit way of telling anecdotes makes him seem like a lightweight, but underneath the fluff is a compelling (if ultimately unsatisfying) argument. The second chapter on geniuses should be required reading for parents and school teachers. It also includes several points opponents of affirmative action really need to consider
November 30th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Again, it should be noted that because McArdle meets the most important requirement of being wrong at least 95% of the time, she will undoubtedly become the most pronounced outlier of these up and coming “public intellectuals”. I see a weekly op-ed column in the NYTimes in her future. A next-gen MoDo perhaps? Although I see her more of a MoDo/Kristol hybrid. The worst of both worlds really.
Matt won’t ever make it to the big time. He’s not wrong enough.
November 30th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
On the subject of hard work, a little extra proof reading would be nice around here…
November 30th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
Megan McArdle is a poor thinker, a poor writer, and consistently fails at Teh Funny. So she has bright future ahead of her in the Media Village.
November 30th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Consider the source. The economist, after all, hired McArdle as a blogger, and leans right/libertarian. The two liberals named happen to be friends of McArdle’s. I think the simplest explanation is simply the usual journalistic inside dealing, which you don’t have to read Outliers to understand. Instead, read Gladwell’s essay in the Tipping Point on connectors.
A similar exercise in understanding who is connected to whom would probably explain why time magazine named Hindrocket the blogger of the year a few years ago.
November 30th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
I’m sure Matt was particularly impressed by Malcolm’s statement on p. 80 of “Outliers:”
“What Hudson is saying is that IQ is a lot like height in basketball. Does someone who is five foot six have a realistic chance of playing professional basketball? Not really. You need to be at least six foot or six one to play on that level, and all things being equal, it’s probably better to be six two than six one, and better to be six three than six two. But past a certain point, height stops mattering so much. A player who is six foot eight is not automatically better than someone two inches shorter. (Michael Jordan, the greatest player ever, was six six after all.) A basketball player only has to be tall _enough_ — and the same is true of intelligence.”
Leave aside the topic of intelligence (which tends to inflame the emotions) and just think about what the woozy morass of what Gladwell is saying about the value of height in the NBA.
November 30th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
Leave aside the topic of intelligence (which tends to inflame the emotions)
No reason to be scared, Sailer. Go ahead and inflame my emotions you self satisfied asshole.
November 30th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
Jeez, steve sailer is still around? Sailer, why aren’t you spending your time fighting against Michael Steele as RNC chairman? That would be right up your alley, wouldn’t it? Why are you wasting time at this here liberal media?
November 30th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
The new Squarepusher record is dire.
November 30th, 2008 at 9:52 pm
Not rich, just influential.
Which do you prefer?
November 30th, 2008 at 11:32 pm
On the other hand, a 20′ tall NBA player would have some distinct advantages.
December 1st, 2008 at 6:47 am
“The Economist proclaimed that Will Wilkinson, Ezra Klein, Megan McArdle, and myself were the public intellectuals of the future.”
I sense the energetic presence of Reihan behind the scenes in all this!
Seriously, a generous networker like Reihan can have a major impact on who becomes a celebrity in a small domain like this.
December 1st, 2008 at 11:32 am
Nothing personal, but:
Juan Cole at Informed Comment on the Middle East, esp. Iraq
Josh Marshall at TPM on the Justice Dept. Scandal
Empty Wheel at Firedog Lake on Plamegate
Digby at Hullaballoo on torture
Nouriel Roubini at RGEMonitor on the economy
I like all you Atlanticos (and exes); Coates is especially interesting, and Sullivan’s utter bulldogging of Sarah Palin, though a bit obsessive must be given some cred; however, I don’t think of any of you as outliers in the right place and time as those above have been.
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:05 pm
It’s a philosophy embedded in the Western mind-set, a theory essential to the American dream. Popular culture and history books have long stressed the importance of individual initiative and inherent skill in achieving success. Indeed,
December 9th, 2008 at 8:02 pm
“I think the simplest explanation is simply the usual journalistic inside dealing, which you don’t have to read Outliers to understand.”
That’s a good explanation of The Economist’s grandiose claim about Matt & friends, but it doesn’t explain why Matt & friends made it to the rarefied realm of folks who get paid to blog. Matt’s point about being an early adopter offers a partial explanation of that.
A useful analogy might be the music industry before the Internet atomized it. There were only a relative handful of popular bands, and indie groups without record deals tended to stay obscure. Matt, Megan and those who started blogging prolifically around 2002 are analogous to the bands that got record deals — and developed big fan bases — before the field became flooded with competition.
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