Nov 3rd, 2008 at 11:00 am
Georgia on My Mind
Note that if, as seems reasonably likely, third party candidates get enough votes in Georgia to ensure that neither Martin nor Chambliss gets fifty percent, Georgia law stipulates that there must be a runoff in December, rather than the seat going to the winner of the plurality. I have to assume that the ensuring nationwide attention to the race would probably work to Chambliss’ advantage, since “nationalizing” the contest should be helpful to a GOP candidate in a Republican state. On the other hand, it’s possible that post-election demoralization and disarray will make it difficult for Republicans to organize effectively.
33 Responses to “Georgia on My Mind”
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November 3rd, 2008 at 11:04 am
Man, I hope Martin wins over 50% tomorrow. I am so sick of seeing adds for this race plastered all over my TV.
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:17 am
Could be, could be…Georgia could even flip for Obama if the turnout models are wrong, and turnout is anybody’s guess this year. Early voting waits of 8, 10, even 12 hours have been all over the news for weeks. (Did the Republican Secretary of State make any effort to expand early voting times? Silly question.)
There is also a risk, I think, of Obama voters not voting in the Senate race–Martin squeaked out his primary win after a reasonably bitter run-off against Vernon Jones, the African-American CEO of Dekalb County. Disappointed Jones supporters may be disinclined to support Martin tomorrow (though I doubt Chambliss will pick up many of their votes).
Nationalizing the race, though, could swing either way, and there has to be at least a presumption that the momentum from November 4th will be a factor. Suppose President-elect Obama comes to town to stump in a big way for Jim Martin. What’s Chambliss going to do–call Cheney?
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:18 am
I think that if Martin wins either a plurality or a majority tomorrow it’s because of highly motivated black voters who won’t be nearly as motivated without Obama on the ticket. This is, by far, our best chance.
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:23 am
I disagree. Ever heard of the bandwagon effect?
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:31 am
I was surprised to see so many candidates for president on my sample ballot. I wonder if Barr will siphon off a critical mass of votes in some swing states. Lots of dittoheads call themselves Libertarians (although I doubt any of them could actually explain what it stands for).
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:33 am
If there is a (a) a Senate runoff and (b) an Obama victory, I very much hope that Obama would swing through Georgia campaigning. I think it might make a significant difference in runoff turnout. If on the other hand Obama and the national Democratic Party sit back and watch comparatively passively, I think Chambliss has a runoff nailed.
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:34 am
Chambliss would win a run-off because he wouldn’t have Obama’s coattails to contend with.
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:37 am
Craig is right. Chambliss’ best hope is to get 50% tomorrow. Otherwise it will be a tougher fight. Obama can mobilize his supporters in a number of different ways. Republicans will be demoralized. Heck, I bet a lot of people will go to Georgia to help out if they can. Payback for Chambliss’ smearing of Cleland.
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:40 am
Bob Barr is from Georgia. My guess is that he siphons off more GOP votes in Georgia than in most other states. Particularly so in the suburbs north of Atlanta.
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:42 am
The one to watch out for is Karen Handel. Seriously. Fuck her.
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:48 am
I think several people have it completely backwards here. If there is a runoff, that would mean that all the best of the best from Obama’s campaign get moved to Georgia for the runoff. I would mean that a President-Elect Obama shows up campaigning around the state to drum up turnout. It would mean a ton of money poured into the state by Obama’s fundraising machine. Martin wouldn’t have Obama’s coattails to ride on, he’d have Obama there beside him.
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Lower turnout and a whiter electorate, even more fearful of an Obama administration and Democratic Congress (imagine the scare ads), would give Chambliss an easy runoff victory. Martin’s only hope is to squeak past 50% tomorrow.
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Hi Matt.
I believe we are headed for a runoff down here for multiple reasons. If that happens, it might be enlightening to look at what happened in Georgia in 1992.
It’ll be tight and I’m not sure which way it swings.
November 3rd, 2008 at 1:21 pm
It really depends whether there’s a desire to remind everybody in the nation that Saxby fucking trick knee Chambliss decided to compare Max Cleland to Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein before the 2002 election. Saxby Shameless is no Paul Coverdell.
Let’s just say that the Great Orange Satan would direct a lot of money towards the runoff. And I think Obama would probably fill the Georgia Dome if he wanted to.
November 3rd, 2008 at 1:51 pm
will the expanded electorate that will turn out to vote for Obama also turn-out in such large numbers for a later run-off election?
November 3rd, 2008 at 2:02 pm
I don’t understand why people think the Republicans would be so much more motivated in a run off election than Dems would be.
November 3rd, 2008 at 2:36 pm
I was surprised to see so many candidates for president on my sample ballot.
Does anybody have a definitive list of who’s on the ballot in which states? Is Ron Paul only in Montana, or Louisiana, too?
I always find it kind of amusing to see who made the cut, myself. When I saw those Florida butterfly ballots in 2000, I saw they had a whole lot more parties running than in California. Socialist Workers Party, Socialist Party USA, etc.
In California we only have:
Democrat (Obama/Biden)
Republican (McCain/Palin)
Libertarian (Barr/Root)
American Independent (Keyes/Drake)
Green (McKinney/Clemente)
Peace and Freedom (Nader/Gonzalez)
That’s it. Note that Nader has a party affiliation here, and that we’ve got Alan Keyes instead of Chuck Baldwin. Also, we have Wiley Drake as Keyes’ running mate on the ballot, even though Wikipedia says that Brian Rohrbough is supposedly the AIP VP candidate.
November 3rd, 2008 at 3:59 pm
I actually worked this out treating public opinion as a random walk under a Bayesian Hidden Markov framework.
The probabilities of Martin getting over 50%, Chambliss getting over 50%, and neither side reaching 50% are roughly 4%, 33%, and 63% respectively.
See my write up here
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