Matt Yglesias

Nov 2nd, 2008 at 8:38 am

Counties to Watch

The sophisticated election-watchers can tell a lot about the eventual outcome in a given state by paying attention to certain key counties as leading indicators. I’m not that sophisticated myself, but Marc Ambinder lays some of it out for us.






15 Responses to “Counties to Watch”

  1. Richard Cownie Says:

    Election coverage in the USA drives me crazy, they give partial vote counts and county numbers that don’t mean a damn thing except to experts with all the history and demographics at their fingertips. In the UK they interpret those partial numbers in terms of the vote swing from the previous election, which makes it comprehensible to everybody. If anyone’s listening, please please make this happen here. Vote count from Cuyahoga County ?
    Meaningless. Obama winning 6% more of the vote than Kerry ? Useful information for anyone.

  2. El Cid Says:

    Though John McCain may roll his eyes and the Washington Post’s Fred Hiatt may scream at how dare we question Latin America’s Savior of Democracy, the UN Human Rights Commissioner formally follows up on long-standing reports of direct extra-judicial executions by the Colombian military.

    Among the latest of the charges regarding our close ally receiving massive military aid, in order to pump up their regular claims of killing more illegal armed groups (mostly guerrillas, primarily FARC), the Colombian military has allegedly been shooting street kids and other vulnerable youth and identifying them as guerrillas killed in battle.

    Once again these charges are a shock, a shock to the government; individuals are rapidly fired or given up for prosecution; Uribe’s extremely popular in the cities and A Nation Is Grateful; and how dare armchair outsiders think any larger pattern might be occurring, etc.

    But hey, I’m sure that if we just approve the U.S.-Colombia Free Trade agreement and express enough support for the reformist President Uribe, all will be just fine.

    U.N. says Colombian military executing civilians

    BOGOTA, Colombia (CNN) — Colombia’s U.S.-backed security forces are engaging in “systematic and widespread” extrajudicial executions of innocent civilians as part of their counterinsurgency campaign, a top United Nations diplomat said Saturday.

    Speaking in Bogota after a weeklong fact-finding tour, Navi Pillay, the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, said the scale of the killings could constitute a “crime against humanity” under international humanitarian law, adding that international courts could intervene if the Colombian government was “unwilling or unable” to handle the investigations itself.

    “An offense becomes a crime against humanity if it is widespread and systematic against the civilian population,” Pillay said at a news conference.

    “We are observing and keeping a record of the number of extrajudicial killings [in Colombia], and it does appear to be systematic and widespread in my view…

    … Her comments come three days after Colombian President Alvaro Uribe fired 25 army officers and non-commissioned officers, including three generals and 11 colonels, for alleged involvement or negligence in a case involving the forced disappearance and summary executions of at least 11 young men from a poor Bogota suburb this year

    … Meanwhile, the government attorney general’s office says it opened close to 800 investigations into accusations of summary executions by the police and military between January 2003 and September 2007.

    Typically, according to the U.N. and the attorney general’s office, security forces will “disappear” or kill civilians and later present them to the media as leftist rebels or right-wing paramilitary fighters killed in combat

    … None of the commanders fired earlier this week has been arrested or charged with any crime. But Uribe has said criminal investigations are ongoing and promised that offenders would be jailed.

  3. BR Says:

    Ambinder identifies Wake Co, NC as one to watch. It went for Bush by 2.5 in 2004. A poll of Wake County from last week has Obama up 17.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WC_1029.pdf

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