Nov 18th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
Begich After All
Of all the Election Day results, Ted Stevens’ re-election in Alaska was probably the one that surprised me most. Except now the recount’s done and it seems that Stevens has lost. It’s a pretty earth-shattering event in Alaska politics, as Stevens has been in office for almost the entirety of Alaska’s time as a state and they haven’t sent a Democrat to congress in decades.
Given the overall nature of Alaska politics it seems unlikely that Begich will be an especially reliable progressive vote. Liberals have basically no leverage in the state and natural resource extractors who tend not to take a very enlightened view of things are vital to the local economy. Still, Stevens was quite the bad actor so almost anything would be progress.
41 Responses to “Begich After All”
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November 18th, 2008 at 9:46 pm
Not a recount!
This is the initial count, they are just finishing it. Begich is leading by over .5% so there will be no recount unless Stevens pays for it.
November 18th, 2008 at 9:58 pm
No recount has taken place. Alaska is just really slow at these things.
November 18th, 2008 at 9:59 pm
Oh, Ted has all sorts of unsavory friends in AK to pay for a recount. You will have to rip that seat out of his hands and beat him in the head with it before they send his ancient ass to prison.
November 18th, 2008 at 10:00 pm
“natural resource extractors who tend not to take a very enlightened view of things”
What does that mean? I thought the culture wars were for conservatives, not beret-wearing, brie-eating pinkos who sit around reading Sartre all day while trying to arrive at enlightenment.
Oh wait… did I generalize?
November 18th, 2008 at 10:12 pm
“Not a recount!”
Exactly.
Jeez Matt, don’t you read Talking Points Memo?
November 18th, 2008 at 10:41 pm
Would it actually be significantly more surprising if 50.1% of Alaskans voted for Ted Stevens than if 49.9% voted for him?
November 18th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s84CwjsSHhs
Those were good times.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
It looks like Begich is going to win by more than 1%, but as pre-election, post-conviction polls had him up by 7, 8 and 22%, yeah it is surprising that it was this close. But this is Alaska we’re talking about, and this may be the start of a new polling phenomenon, the Stevens Effect, whereby some people are reluctant to admit to pollster that they intend to vote for a convict.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:21 pm
Given the overall nature of Alaska politics it seems unlikely that Begich will be an especially reliable progressive vote.
No, I suppose not. But then again, given the fairly wingnutty nature of Alaskan conservatism, you’d kinda think nearly all GOP leaners in Alaska will vote for the Republican in 2014 no matter what, so why not just be a true progressive if you’re Begich?
November 18th, 2008 at 11:33 pm
Given that the Repug Senate Caucus might have expelled Stevens if he had won, this is kind of a graceful way out.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:49 pm
Begich has six years. He should just forget about re-election and vote his conscience.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:49 pm
Wow. I’m in my fifties, and he was in office before I was old enough to vote.
November 18th, 2008 at 11:52 pm
and natural resource extractors who tend not to take a very enlightened view of things are vital to the local economy.
They’re also vital to getting your ‘enlightened’ ass to Switzerland and back (and all those other places you love to fly to).
November 18th, 2008 at 11:57 pm
Begich is probably more reliable than Landrieu or even Warner.
The problem is that Republicans have learned a European parliamentary style of party discipline in defeat that the democrats have never even thought about. They will vote in lock step and use their little power to make damn sure that enemies of the party are purged. I don’t know if this works in the long run or not, but I think it’s going to work as long as they can hold onto their last pitiful bit of power.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:00 am
I imagine Bayh will become a pain in the ass at some point and take Lieberman’s spot and make him irrelevant anyway.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:30 am
Olympia Snowe and/or Susan Collins (and maybe even Arlen Specter) will vote with the Dems on a number of critical aspects of Obama’s agenda, which will give them the ability to withstand a couple of Democratic defections.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:50 am
This actually puts the Dems in a slightly uncomfortable position, because while six years is a long time to establish oneself, there may have to be some federal largesse directed his way to help Alaskans get over Uncle Ted. Of course, Don Young’s still around for that purpose, as is Nepotism Murkowski, but while the oil price is low, Alaska will want its pork.
(It’s also easy to forget that Tony Knowles is a pretty reliable western progressive, and he’s a possible Obama cabinet pick.)
And Ed Marshall’s right: the GOP Senate is whipped like a parliamentary party, with even Snowe and Collins voting the party line most of the time, while Landrieu, Ben Nelson, Blanche Lincoln and the other usual suspects waver. I’m sure, too, that McConnell will feel encouraged to be as dickish as possible after Reid’s flaccid treatment of Lieberman.
Even a 58-60 Dem caucus is likely to be less tightly disciplined than Frist’s 55-seat GOP conference between 2004-6.
November 19th, 2008 at 12:57 am
Check out this WaPo compilation of some key vote from 2005-07 by Snowe.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:05 am
Rich: I see a few defections, admittedly on things like SCHIP and against some social-conservative stupidity. But those scorecards don’t really show the whole of the story, because it’s easier to cross over when your party either has the votes in hand to win, or knows it’s going to lose. If McConnell chooses to use cloture votes like he has over the past two years, are Snowe and Collins and Specter going to jump when the outcome depends on their votes?
I think it’s up to Reid and Pelosi — with prodding from Obama and Biden — to create a legislative calendar that delivers a few quick, easy votes in which the GOP Senate moderates would be made to look foolish, based upon their voting record, if they sided with their party. If McConnell is inclined to play obstructionist, handing him a few early defeats might blunt those efforts. Being able to maintain the Senate roadblock would make the next four years painful.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:41 am
Begich has accomplished remarkable things for the development of Anchorage in a broad spectrum of interests. He will have a much stronger Democratic following behind him than was expected. He is easy to work with and low key, not all about him. I for one will be pleased to have him representing Alaska.
An Anchorite
November 19th, 2008 at 5:28 am
Was that the sound of God slamming a door that I just heard?
November 19th, 2008 at 7:16 am
I think it’s absolutely disgraceful that they couldn’t finish the initial count within two weeks of the election. What is this, Zimbabwe?
November 19th, 2008 at 7:41 am
So there won’t be a convicted felon the Senate and wacko Palin won’t get a chance to further her career for at least two years. Yay!
http://www.sunstateactivist.org/ssablog/
November 19th, 2008 at 9:13 am
Happy Birthday, Ted!
November 19th, 2008 at 10:11 am
I had the good fortune to hear Senator-elect Begich speak at Netroots Nation on a panel on smart energy policy and decreasing fossil fuel consumption, and it seems like he’s done some really smart, innovative, progressive things in Anchorage. It’s good to hear Spence confirm that above.
Begich’s issue page strikes me as pretty good for your generic Dem regardless of state. Wants out of Iraq, cares deeply about global warming, focuses on quality affordable health care for all rather than controlling health costs for the fortunate, supports a progressive tax reform plan, and most interestingly he hints at support for massive investment in alternative energy infrastructure. Based on this, one would have to think he’ll be a reliable vote with the Obama agenda, with an added civil liberties bonus. Coming from Alaska, that will be a huge breath of fresh air.
http://www.begich.com/issues
November 19th, 2008 at 11:58 am
Hopefully Begich realizes he almost certainly won’t get re-elected in 6 years, and just votes his conscience.
November 19th, 2008 at 10:26 pm
Begich is jumping straight from local politics. His biggest initiatives lately have been revitalizing a rundown neighborhood with an Arts District and putting LED bulbs in street lamps. He’s not as beholden to interest groups as state-level politicians. Or… he’s in over his head and will be easily manipulated by those interest groups.
Chris O. and blah #13 give Begich the same advice. But maybe every politician should behave as if their re-election was a longshot.
November 20th, 2008 at 9:34 am
“Hopefully Begich realizes he almost certainly won’t get re-elected in 6 years, and just votes his conscience.”
If his conscience is worth a damn, that would
mean voting based on what he told the voters
of alaska he was going to do, as opposed to
making a liar out of himself.
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