Matthew Yglesias » 52 Percent

Nov 5th, 2008 at 7:33 am

52 Percent

A couple of facts:

The last time a Democrat got as much as 52 percent in a Presidential election was 1964.
The last time a non-incumbent got as much as 52 percent in a Presidential election was 1952.

It’s an impressive feat.

Comments
27

27 Responses to “52 Percent”

Martin Bento Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 7:41 am
Well, George Bush Sr. got 53% and wasn’t formally an incumbent, though he seemed to be one of those actually running the place. Maybe you mean non-incumbent Democrat.
El Cid Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 7:45 am
Maybe we’re finally finishing Reconstruction.
tao9 Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 7:49 am
The markets will be “interesting” today; in a Chinese way.
cd Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 8:05 am
True. But if you listened to David Brooks last night on PBS you would know that Obama’s margin of victory wasn’t that big and this proves that he doesn’t have such a enormous mandate for progressive policies.
Walker Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 8:10 am
The problem is that Obama’s coattails turned out to be very, very short. The Democrats have underperformed expectations in both the House and the Senate. Even as a convicted felon, Stevens appears to be inching out a win.
Nylund Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 8:11 am
When was the last time a non-incumbent Democrat got as much as 52%? I think you’d have to go back to FDR in 1932.

Also, as gesture of food faith, to ease fears that Obama might be a “wealth spreader” I propose he scrap all the farm subsidies.
soullite Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 8:15 am
Amazing how a 2.5% popular vote, 40 electoral college vote win was supposed to give GWB a sweeping mandate in the media’s eyes, yet a 4+% popular votem 190+ electoral college vote win doesn’t give Obama any mandate at all.

Why, it’s almost as if the media is operating under a double-standard that helps Republicans or something!
guy Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 8:39 am
butbutbutbutbut Cal said he couldn’t win the Joe the Plumber vote! Maybe those ballots got lost in his (her?) crack.
Th Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 8:48 am
The last time a Democrat won 52% of the vote, they passed Medicare, the Civil Rights Act, the Voting Rights Act and the Great Society programs that cut poverty in half. Just saying.
Ed Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 9:00 am
What is impressive about the popular vote percentage is that Obama has crossed the Tilden line, the percentage the popular vote obtained by Samuel Tilden in 1876, an election that he lost due to fraud. Since the Civil War, Democratic presidential candidates have struggled to cross the Tilden line, beating the 1876 percentage of the popular vote only four times, in three of FDR’s victories and in the LBJ landslide in 1964.

That has made Samuel Tilden, who never became president, the third most popular Democratic presidential candidate in history, until this year.
cd Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 11:34 am
I’d just like to point out what a shame it is that we don’t hold elections on Saturday. After Obama won last night I could have stayed up all night partying. But no, we hold elections on Tuesdays, perhaps the worst potential party night of the week, and therefore I had to get up and go to work (which, unsuprisingly, is doing some serious damage to my good karma).
amorphous Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 11:45 am
Alamo Draft House.
Mixner Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
The last time a Democrat got as much as 52 percent in a Presidential election was 1964.

Only two Democrats have won at all since 1964. Carter got over 50% in 1976, Clinton got just under 50% in 1996, and Clinton most likely would have gotten at least 52% in 1992 if Perot hadn’t run. So Obama did a tiny bit better in the popular vote than the last two Democratic winners.

The last time a Democrat won 52% of the vote, they passed Medicare, the Civil Rights Act, the Voting Rights Act and the Great Society programs that cut poverty in half. Just saying.

Did they have a trillion dollar deficit? Just asking.
Jasper Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Did they have a trillion dollar deficit? Just asking.

Mixner: And just answering: because much of the edifice of the safety net is firmly (and safely, given its political popularity) in place, not very much expansion is needed to plug in the gaps. In other words, Medicare, Social Security, Head Start, federal funds for education, etc. already exist as programs. Providing taxpayer subsidized universal access to health insurance won’t prove to be non-feasible, especially when professional economists of all stripes are providing such useful intellectual cover (via their support of stimulus), and especially when our medium term fiscal glide path promises savings in the form of reduced resources flowing to overseas wars, and reduced resources flowing to financial bailout programs. That 7% of GDP deficit isn’t likely to last very long.
Adam Villani Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
Mixner:
> Civil Rights Act, the Voting Rights Act and the Great
> Society programs that cut poverty in half. Just saying.

Did they have a trillion dollar deficit? Just asking.

Right, because a recession is no time to be granting civil rights or voting rights!
Mixner Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Jasper,

You’re a funny guy. Let’s see: We’re already in or are about to enter a recession. The government just made a trillion-plus dollar spending commitment to address the financial crisis. We’re fighting two wars. We’re ten trillion dollars in debt and will add at least another half-trillion next year. And we already have a looming entitlement fiscal catastrophe in Medicare.

But not to worry. Somehow, as if by magic, the money to fund universal health care and massive new infrastructure and energy spending, and tax cuts for 95% of the population will somehow just materialize out of thin air.

You’re living in a dreamworld.
tom veil Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Another one: Obama is only the 4th Democrat in US history (after Jackson, FDR, and LBJ) to crack 51%.
Jasper Says:
November 5th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
The government just made a trillion-plus dollar spending commitment to address the financial crisis.

Mixner: I believe the bulk of that extra spending will be water under the bridge in another year or so, hence my point about freeing up resources. Do you think the financial crisis will last forever, and that financial institution bailouts will be a permanent spending priority for the government?

We’re fighting two wars.

Soon to be one.

We’re ten trillion dollars in debt…

The national debt owed to the public isn’t especially high by historical standards, and the incoming Obama administration’s commitment to fiscal realism will only improve the situation as time goes by.

And we already have a looming entitlement fiscal catastrophe in Medicare.

One that will be averted only when the healthcare system as a whole is reformed — something we’re far more likely to get with the Democrats in power.

Somehow, as if by magic, the money to fund universal health care and massive new infrastructure and energy spending, and tax cuts for 95% of the population will somehow just materialize out of thin air.

There’s nothing “magic” about it, and Obama’s plan doesn’t provide tax cuts for 95% of the population. A combination of domestic spending cuts (Medicare subsidies to insurance companies appear to be high on Obama’s list), tax increases on the wealthy and on carbon fuels, a wind-down of Iraq, and the natural turn of the business cycle will provide enough money to fund Obama’s initiatives and reduce the government’s need to borrow. There will be no elimination of the budget during Obama’s first term, but a substantial reduction.
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52 Percent

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