Youth Decay
I used to sometimes think that the relatively left-wing views of the under-30 generation were basically just a reflection of the fact that the under-30 cohort contains many fewer non-hispanic whites than does the over-30 cohort. This new report from Amanda Logan and David Madlan makes it clear that’s not right — young whites have substantially more progressive views on a whole range of key issues than do older whites, and there’s substantial convergence between the views of young whites and young minorities:
Young whites, again, hold markedly more progressive views than older whites on the issue of federal spending on child care, while black Millennials’ views are slightly less progressive than their elders’, and Hispanic Millennials’ views are essentially the same as older Hispanics.32 In 2004, 77.8 percent of 18- to 29-year-old blacks thought that federal spending for child care should be increased, compared to 85.5 percent of blacks aged 30 and older. In the same year, 71.4 percent of young Hispanics and 71.6 percent of older Hispanics felt that this funding should be increased. For whites, however, the picture was different in 2004, with 68.1 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds thinking federal spending for child care should be increased compared to just 50.1 percent of whites aged 30 and older.
Yet again, on the topic of spending for the poor, white Millennials have noticeably more progressive views than older whites, while the views of both black and Hispanic Millennials are relatively in line with those of their elders. In 2004, 82.9 percent of young blacks thought that federal spending for the poor should be increased, along with 88.1 percent of blacks aged 30 and older. For Hispanics, the support was even more uniform in 2004, with 65.9 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds and 62.3 percent of Hispanics aged 30 and older in favor of increased federal spending for the poor. In contrast, 57.6 percent of white Millennials thought that this spending should be increased compared to just 48.1 percent of whites aged 30 and older.
I believe it’s not online, but if you hunt down a copy of the current issue of The Atlantic you should find that it comes packaged with a separately published election supplement that features, among other things, a piece by yours truly observing that the present day conservative coalition seems to mostly be stuck with the shrinking slices of the demographic pie. This data shows us one of the major driving factors behind that.
57 Responses to “Youth Decay”
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October 7th, 2008 at 9:15 am
One possible explanation for the much more progressive views of younger voters is that social welfare programs have not been effectively racialized, as they were for their parents and grand-parents during the 1960’s and 1970’s civil rights backlash. They have an entirely different set of historical experiences.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:15 am
That’s some strong data, especially as people in the 18 to 29 bracket are somewhat less likely to have taken on any child-raising of their own.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:21 am
Kids below 30 have little interest in refighting the culture wars of the 60’s. For conservatives my age, it’s always all about those dirty f___ing hippies. See, e. g., the Ayers controversy.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:22 am
Can’t this simply be explained by the fact that young whites do not yet have a lot of money? Conservative fiscal belief are frequently held by people who have a lot of money they don’t want to give away. I haven’t read your Atlantic piece yet, but I would assume that as these young whites get older, and richer, they are likely to join the GOP just as their parents did.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:25 am
Strange that those on the right travel the nation’s roads constantly signaling a turn to the left.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:29 am
“Can’t this simply be explained by the fact that young whites do not yet have a lot of money?”
I don’t know. Weren’t there plenty of Republican-identifying youngsters in the 1980s who were inspired by Reagan, not by personal (family) wealth?
October 7th, 2008 at 9:32 am
hell yes. When Reagan took office, it became the era of Gordon Gecko – “greed is good”. Apparently a LOT of Reagan Youth did not recognize that Oliver Stone’s Wall Street was a critique, not a celebration of predatory capitalism.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:32 am
I’m surprised that the young people of today aren’t nursing grievous wounds about who lost Vietnam and waxing nostalgic for the awesome days of Savings & Loan destruction, ‘welfare queens driving Cadillacs’ repetitions, and how glorious it was to kill so many of those pesky Central Americans.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:33 am
It’s a lot of things all coming together.
1) Kids who have been taught in school to be tolerant, who mostly grew up in an environment where it is OK to be different. They don’t understand the gay-bashing and race-baiting.
2) Young people are less religious, and don’t connect with the Christianist positions of the GOP.
3) The GOP has not changed with the times. Its leaders are not the kind of people attractive to young people. The Ted Stevens “Internet is a seies of tubes” video was a craze on youtube, my teenage kids know about it even though we don’t talk politics at home. The GOP brand to kids is old and dumb.
4) Young people are less secure economically, and don’t have an aversion to government help. Many probably wish they had more of it.
5) Maybe most importantly, Jon Stewart and Steven Colbert. They have shined a spotlight on the GOP, and the results are a joke.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:40 am
“2) Young people are less religious, and don’t connect with the Christianist positions of the GOP.”
I think that they are more religious, but practice a level of tolerance that runs against Christianism. Largely the result of your first point.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:43 am
Don’t forget Bush. The last 4 years have been a testimonial to the failure of conservatism.
This was the grand experiment. Conservative president for 8 years. Conservative congress for 6 of the 8, thus total control.
The result: complete failure.
Bush’s 20ish approval ratings are the grade the pubic has given to the conservative movement. If you grew up a conservative, it is somewhat difficult to overcome the inertia and switch. If your first commitment to along the conservative-liberal spectrum is being made in the past few years, its hard to choose “conservative”. My guess is that the minority who do are following the pattern and authority of their parents.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:43 am
Aren’t people under 30 always more “progressive” than people over 30? I think you can chalk some of it up to youth. I seem to remember that even on that terrible Planet of the Apes the younger apes were more progressive than Dr. Zaius, who was definitely a Republican.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:44 am
When Reagan took office, for a lot of people – not me, but a lot of people – he represented hope and change and sunny optimism, for which people were really hungry.
While I did not and still do not approve of Reagan, I can understand why people would go for that and not look beyond the surface to the ugly details.
What does the current GOP have to offer? Incompetence, corruption, gay-bashing, endless wars, bible-thumping, anti-science, anti-Enlightenment, rank hypocrisy.
And just look at the two candidates. One is an old guy with his feet firmly planted in the Vietnam era, who doesn’t even use the internet. The other is young-ish (early 40s but looks younger), black, plays basketball, and… represents hope and change and sunny optimism after a bleak decade.
If Obama wins – and he will – and if he can deliver the goods, the stage is set for a generation of Democratic dominance.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:46 am
r€nato Says:
hell yes. When Reagan took office, it became the era of Gordon Gecko – “greed is good”. Apparently a LOT of Reagan Youth did not recognize that Oliver Stone’s Wall Street was a critique, not a celebration of predatory capitalism.
I don’t know, tons of young people are now obsessed with being rich and famous and don’t seem to realize that shows like The Simple Life, The Hills, and Laguna Beach are critiques, not celebrations of vapid materialism.
The opposite end of the spectrum is that the males don’t seem to realize that Fight Club was a critique of nihilism/withdrawal from society.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:53 am
The “Millennial Generation”? Christ. Make it stop. Please tell me that isn’t catching on anywhere but in the minds of some CAP writers who think they’re being terribly clever.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:58 am
If the media can be believed, the current group of people in their twenties spend more time in college and many tend to end up back at mommy and daddy’s place after six years of studying and a ton of student loans. The bottom 50% of earners(which most of these kids fall into) pay very little in income tax so they don’t have much in the game. Tax cuts mean very little to those who pay next to nothing in taxes.
They only have to benefit from more government since a lot of them are freeriders. They seem to have an attitude that says “I’ll take some of that free child care, along with a steak sandwich, and a steak sandwich”. These kids fit the conservative stereotype of liberals perfectly; they are generous with other people’s money.
October 7th, 2008 at 10:03 am
a piece by yours truly observing that the present day conservative coalition seems to mostly be stuck with the shrinking slices of the demographic pie
What about evangelical/fundamentalist Christians? They’re overwhelmingly conservative and Republican, and their numbers most definitely aren’t shrinking … that noise you hear is a new megachurch going up on the next block.
October 7th, 2008 at 10:17 am
“If the media can be believed, the current group of people in their twenties spend more time in college and many tend to end up back at mommy and daddy’s place after six years of studying and a ton of student loans.”
Imagine that, the group of current college graduates who can’t get good jobs and have crippling student loans is in favor of progressive policies like expanding health care, making college more affordable, and middle class tax cuts. Who would have thought? Maybe you shouldn’t have blown up the economy and shrunk the middle class if you want people to support current Republican policies.
October 7th, 2008 at 10:17 am
People under 30 are getting reamed by the system. College costs have tripled since my day by hiding hordes of overpaid administrators, yet the tenured faculty hardly ever sets foot on campus and courses are taught by adjuncts and grad students.
Once out of school they move into a dismal economy. Throw in the utter irrelevance of the culture war & yeah – Republicans are ridiculous.
October 7th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Perhaps the majority of the young have seen Republican administrations pile up the federal debt and they realize that means less infrastructure maintenance, less social security for them when they are old enough to need it.
I posit another yet unmentioned reason, the conservative movement has become less of a meritocracy and more of an aristocracy in recent years. The last time the Republicans nominated a non rich kid was the very unfavorable year of 1996.
But if George H.W. Bush had been reelected in 1992 the Republicans would have probably nominated Dan Quayle or someone very like him in ‘96. The GOP has nominated its second C- student in a row who owes his college admission and his opportunities after a mediocre college career to family connections. How can a generation burdened with huge tuition debt and poor employment prospects identify with that?
October 7th, 2008 at 10:43 am
I think the larger point, and the thread that runs through the majority of these explanations for a left-leaning youth is that our parents are all boomers. The boomers were and are the most powerful political force (as a voting bloc and otherwise) this country has ever seen, and the situation they have left for their offspring is dismal at best, which is particularly sad considering the relative peace and prosperity they enjoyed while we were growing up. No wonder the under thirty vote recoils at the mention of the 60s and Vietnam. We could give a fuck less, we have friends dying in Iraq. I mean, not to put too fine a point on it, but DUH!
October 7th, 2008 at 10:50 am
I think this is largely correct. If you read the economics blogs (CR, Big Picture) back in the early days, you would see a lot of intergenerational fighting (e.g. a lot of boomer hatred by the 30-somethings and younger generations). I think this is going to get much, much worse. As the combined voting might of the younger generations approaches that of the boomers, I expect to see culture war replaced by generational war.
October 7th, 2008 at 11:09 am
Atlantic Campaign Supplement is what you are referring to right?
October 7th, 2008 at 11:10 am
The notion that young people grow more conservative over time as they accrue money and get a stake in the system has been disproved by polling and studies that suggest what really happens is that the political views and leanings one has in their late 20s get solidified and remain in place over a lifetime. One study claims that if you get someone to vote for the same political party three times in a row before they’re 30, they’re highly likely to remain with that party for life.
Still, economics is one of the central reasons for this. Folks under 30 are being crushed under a mountain of debt and see no real upward mobility being offered. At all. The full-time job doesn’t pay enough to repay the student loan debt and provide a basic level of economic security.
So what you see is a whole generation – and a large generation – that believes the economic policies of the last 30 years have failed them, and they’re blaming the Republicans and the right for it. Because folks under 30 did not live through the 1970s, and have no conscious memory of the height of liberal government spending or the most intense period of backlash to it, they’re much more likely to see government spending as a good and necessary thing – because they recognize that without it they have no economic future.
October 7th, 2008 at 11:13 am
I have three boys – 25, 23, and 21. The oldest (employed), college educated and married to a college educated wife is very conservative politically, always votes and always votes Republican, the middle is very liberal, 2 year education (employed at WalMart as a cashier)always votes Democratic, the youngest – still in school is Independent – votes depending on the candidate. All were raised in a politically aware environment and encouraged to look at the issues. However, the large percentage of their friends do not vote and probably could only tell who the president is because we live in Texas. I believe most issues are too complex for most young adults to understand how they can really impact their day to day life. If it isn’t a 2×4 hitting them in the billfold they don’t understand it. They can’t see beyond the next weekend. They are all more toleratant of different views but are less likely to be vocal about it. I can’t say that I think of them as being more progressive than I was at their age or any of their friends. It will be interesting to see the percentage of voters under 30 in this election compare to other elections. I believe that the overall turnout will be less than in 2004 across for total votes but there will be more black voters than ever before.
October 7th, 2008 at 11:49 am
I believe most issues are too complex for most young adults to understand how they can really impact their day to day life. If it isn’t a 2×4 hitting them in the billfold they don’t understand it.
To be fair, this is probably not any different for middle-aged adults and old adults, as well.
One study claims that if you get someone to vote for the same political party three times in a row before they’re 30, they’re highly likely to remain with that party for life.
We do have to thank Bush for putting any Rovian fantasies of a “permanent Republican majority” to an end.
October 7th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
I’m glad that young people are more favorable to federal spending on child care and wealth redistribution. It’s an encouraging sign. Mr. Yglesias should note, however, that young people are more likely to be pro-life than their elders.
October 7th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
This thread is no rock ‘n roll fun.
October 7th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
As one of them “Millenials” (ugh, can’t anybody think of a better name?) my personal experience has been the same. Pf, cube, r€nato, and most of the other commenters are spot on in their analysis with the exception of religion, I don’t think my generation is any more or less religious than previous ones. I’m a Californian so my thoughts may not be in line with what’s going on with the rest of the nation, but as far as I’m concerned:
1. Bush blew it, big time. Since I was born in 1988, I remember the Clinton years and his presidency kicked ass compared to the asshole in office now. I actually liked him in 2000, but he lost me with the Patriot Act and it’s been all downhill from there.
2. The internets. Virtually all of my politically active friends read a political blog. Those who aren’t watch the Daily Show and the Colbert Report. I don’t know anyone who would admit to seriously watching Fox News, and the only place I think I could find someone who did is the College Republicans club.
3. Diversity. I don’t know how you guys were educated, but in my early years we were taught to be tolerant and respectful of those who are different from us. And even if that didn’t sink in it was impossible at my schools to not make a friend outside your race, because your race never made up more than half your class. So the gay-bashing and brown-people fear-mongering won’t work.
4. My future looks dimmer than yours! I currently go to a public university, the same one my history teacher went to in the 70s. Only he paid absolutely nothing to attend, and I’m stuck with a $10,000 bill in school “fees” alone every year, a number that keeps going up. I see people cry about how scary socialist universal healthcare is going to rape our freedoms, but I’ve seen some of my medical bills and they’re not pretty: $2,000 for an ER visit, $6,000 for orthodontics. I get kicked off of my parents’ very generous healthcare plan (hooray government employees!) after I graduate school, and then what am I supposed to do? Get healthcare from my employer? In this economy? I saw my dying grandfather fight his health insurance company so he could see a doctor. Mine initially rejected my claim for the ER visit. Not an emergency, they said. Scum of the earth, I say.
I also see an electorate that not only refuses to invest in the future, but actively seeks to rob us so that they can have MORE MONEY NOW! Healthcare? It costs money! Public transportation? Costs money! Cutting down on pollution? Costs money! Helping the poor? Costs money! It’s all about tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts! You greedy motherf**kers. F**k you, Baby Boomers. It has gotten to the point that even as our government faces the largest deficit in history, even as our desperately outdated infrastructure rots, when we need a massive green energy project just to survive – BOTH candidates are proposing overall tax cuts. It’s sick. And they have to, because you Boomers are too damn greedy to accept anything else.
And you know who pays for your greed? Us. When the oil runs out, when the massive bill for your wars and tax cuts and deficit spending comes due, Boomers will be six feet under. It will be my generation that has to pick up the pieces. The best years of your generation are behind you, but mine are going to be spent trying to repair everything your massive greed has damaged.
So you bet your ass I’m left-wing.
Sorry, I know how venomous the above is but I’m sure it’s what a great many of us are feeling.
October 7th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
Ruy Teixeira wrote a whole book on this, right? I haven’t read it, but maybe someone else will for me.
October 7th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Hear, hear, Flavortext! I, too, am a Millenial (although I was born in 1983–right on the cusp, I think), and I agree with everything you said. I think we are perfectly justified in being venomous, because it is our future and our lives that are being ransomed right now for these stupid tax cuts, and in ignoring global warming, infrastructure, and health care. I’m out of school now, and lucky in that I’ve found a job that (barely) pays the bills, but I’ll be paying almost $400 a month on my student loans until I’m 34: what do you think my chances are of being able to buy a home, start a family, and live the American dream that the Boomer generation enjoyed? I’m not going to be able to provide for my children in the way that I was provided for, and that makes me angry, justifiably I think.
One more thing that bothers me: I just don’t get why I should be against “socialized” health care–I’d rather have a tax-payer-beholden bureaucrat between me and my doctor than a profit-beholden bureaucrat between me and my doctor! And it seems to me the government is more efficient about it anyway…the premium I pay for my employer-based health insurance that just covers me is 3 times the tax I pay to Medicaid. I’d be fine giving that money to the government in exchange for actual guaranteed health care any day.
October 7th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
The bit about a coming generational war is right. The boomers forgot that there was a generation coming after them and piled up huge deficits on our backs. The funny part will be when their numbers start to think a bit more from natural causes and we start pulling the plug on their entitlements.
I’d much rather invest in the future than in those selfish idiots.
October 7th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
I’m a Millenial as well, and agree that there is a turn to the left – and welcome it in many ways, particularly on health care. However, I would expect this to change a bit once our generation gets older. There seems to be a pretty common pattern in American life of a liberal youth moving slowly back towards the conservative middle. People tend to move back towards the view of their parents, and that’s something I think we’ll likely see over the coming decades.
October 7th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
I don’t really have any complaints about the name “Millennial.” Yeah, it’s lame, but so is “Baby Boomer,” and at least it’s not as pathetically derivative as “Generation Y.”
Anecdotally, I meet all sorts of people my age who are more liberal than their parents, but I have yet to meet one who is more conservative.
October 7th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Ben -
I’m a “late Boomer” so I can speak from experience – don’t count on moving back toward conservatism as you age, at least as long as you remain actively engaged withe world and keep your eyes and mind open. I’m pushing 50 but I’m probably just as radical now as I was 25 years ago. The fact is, progressivism is the only viable option for a decent future and the more life experience you gather the more you’ll understand that.
October 7th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
Here is an article on surveys of the politics of the “millennials”, which in an aside mentions that the “every generation is liberal when they’re young” theory isn’t correct:
October 7th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
Reply to PF at 9 above
“4) Young people are less secure economically, and don’t have an aversion to government help. Many probably wish they had more of it.”
Two things to add to what you said. This is my observation which may or may not be accurate.
a. Today’s kids don’t expect to get rich as a right of belonging to their age group. Those age 20 to 35 during the Reagan era had that expectation. Everyone was going to do better than their parents.
b. College tuition has jumped a great deal in the last two decades, and everyone knows people in their 50’s still paying student loans. College is still the key for most people to enter the middle class and anticipate becoming well-to-do.
You can’t be a conservative unless you feel superior to a lot of people, maybe everyone. The young Reaganites had that expectation for both economic and racial reasons. Not only do today’s young adults not have that expectation of being/feeling superior, they generally don’t have the need to feel that way.
October 7th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
For more evidence that young people haven’t always leaned strongly Democratic the way the current youth does, take a look at the first graph in this article (the other graphs and data are interesting too)
October 7th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Flavortext at 29 above
I’m 65 – preBoomer. What you wrote is descriptive, not a bit venomous. Don’t ever regret recognizing how the world around you is working. Question your understanding, deepen it, but never regret it.
Just remember, though, that the more accurate you are the more you will threaten someone with power.
October 7th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
One reason the young appear to grow conservative as they age is because the ground shifst from under them and things which are progressive, even radical when they are young become the ho-hum norm by the time their children are graduating from high school. 100 years ago it was women’s suffrage, 50 years ago Ciil Rights. Today’s leftwing will be our grandchildren’s righwting.
October 7th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
Oh for f*cks sake. First I had to go through my life in the wake of the “me generation,” watching the “redefine” every goddamn phase of life to best frame their selfish, narcissistic behaviour. They have ruled their world ever since it consisted of their soiled diapers and the next serving of Tang, and they are wholly responsble for the mess we’re in now. I’m sick of them and especially of f *cking Dennis Hopper is bleating on about how they’re “redefining retirement.” Jesus, put them out of my misery.
Now I’ve got to hear about the “millenial” status of their progeny? Christ on a cracker. Born of a boomer? Listen carefully… just like your parents you’re NOT THAT INTERESTING. Your parents are trying to make you seem important because it makes THEM seem more important. Your parents are morons. Just go out and vote.
October 7th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
Adding onto what a few people have said earlier, I think older generations ignoring global warming is definitely a factor. We are going to have to be the ones to deal with the three greatest potential extinction-causers – global warming, nukes and bioweapons – in an increasingly complex world that is becoming harder and harder to control. The deficit is also a concern. Meanwhile, the student newspaper of the world’s largest Southern Baptist university endorsed gay marriage a couple of years ago, so even the evangelicals and fundamentalists are socially evolving. A lot of the in-group mentality of the latter two groups has historically been based on being proxies for white nationalism, but that has been decreasing as well, making the need for us vs. them identity fights as fuel for the movement lower and lower.
October 8th, 2008 at 8:23 am
Kids under 30 aren’t always more liberal than people over 30. When I was a teenager in the Eighties, it was the other way around. The Reagan Youth may have been more liberal than their parents, but there were the boomers in between.
October 8th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Jesus, put them out of my misery.
Dr. Freud, call your office…even so I’m going to use it.
October 8th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
Flavortext & others,
I agree with you on your point 1, especially the Patriot Act. I do have some considerations for you on your other points. Point 2 – Internet – do you only look at blogs that agree with you? Do you try to find out information from mulitple sources and read opposing views? Don’t accept everything you read, even if you agree with it. You can’t appreciate diversity until you try and understand why people have different view – regardless of race, religion, etc. That is why in Debate classes they make you do both side of the question. Point 3 – Not everybody has access to diveristy in the places they live, i.e. I grew up in South Dakota, not a lot of diversity rich/poor, religon, race, etc. So don’t assume everyone has a chance for a diverse upbringing. Point 4 – Why are you going to College? A college degree does not automatically punch a job ticket. Paying $40K for an “education” that doesn’t prepare you to work is a worthless investment. Many young people I know work and go to college, mine did and we could have afforded to pay for their entire education. I have many friends in the education field, primary through gratuate school and the examples they give of students who feel “entitled” to grades without working for them are many. The value of an education is what you can do with it after you receive it and if society doesn’t value it then it is personal development. Next item – health care – what are the majority of people doing to stay healthly? Why should I pay for someone who smokes, drinks, is obese, doesn’t exercise to have health insurance – last I looked it was not a constitutional right. Regarding the Boomer consumerism – I agree – it is horrid. That being said what are you doing to change it? Do you walk instead of ride?, carpool? do with A/C (like people used to) use public transportation. carry “green” bags in place of plastic/paper. recycle? If you are doing all these an more CONGRATULATIONS! you are making a difference. If you aren’t stop whining and start doing something about it.
October 8th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
GenY is primarily the offspring of Generation Jones; Jonesers were born 1954-1965, between the Boomers and GenXers. Both Obama and Palin are part of GenJones. Check out this 5 minute video which looks at the surprisingly big role which Generation Jones is playing in the ‘08 election, the video features a bunch of top pundits (e.g. David Brooks, Clarence Page, Juan Williams, Karen Tumulty, Michael Steele, Michael Barone, etc. specifically discussing Obama and Palin’s identity as GenJonesers, and the GenJones impact on the election:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Ta_Du5K0jk
October 8th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Also, bear in mind that GenJonesers are by far the most GOP-leaning generation, so needs to be factored into any discussion of the changing demographics of voters and conservatism.
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