Oct 29th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
The Pennsylvania Gambit
The credulity of the press regarding John McCain’s Pennsylvania gambit is remarkable. Pollster.com has Obama up by 10.7 points in Pennsylvania. McCain’s lead is smaller than that in Georgia, West Virginia, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Indiana and Arizona while McCain is currently losing in Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and Nevada. Think about that.
McCain’s only chances of winning are either that the polling is badly wrong for some reason, or else that some kind of shocking external event — perhaps a huge terrorist attack — massively scrambles the race. But based on the information available, he’s just hopelessly far behind and there’s no use pretending otherwise.
49 Responses to “The Pennsylvania Gambit”
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October 29th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
The credulity of the press regarding John McCain’s Pennsylvania gambit is remarkable.
But helpful to the good guys. I say complacency is the only thing that could some how allow McCain to win. Yup, Pennsylvania is dangerously close, folks. GET TO THE POLLS!
October 29th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
I don’t know, according to the State of PA website McCain is doing pretty well in early voting. Of course, Bob Barr is doing a lot better than McCain, and there is no early voting in PA. Anyway, you should update your post to reflect this mysterious data.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
I think it’s the credulity of McCain’s campaign about Pennsylvania that’s really remarkable. They’ve suckered their own fool selves into throwing a big chunk of their limited money down a rathole.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
Matt,
You miss the point here. The demonstration of a path to victory is required here to ensure that the rest of his support doesn’t collapse in a futile effort. If he conceded the truth, then whatever enthusiasm existed would evaporate and worsen his defeat.
What is interesting are Ed Rendell’s comments that he might be right. I think that is linked to Rendell’s desire to show his value in winning the race and moving up into the Federal Government. Rendell should know that Obama’s very large lead in southeast Pennsylvania more than nullifies the central region’s McCain tilt.
Josh
October 29th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
The press desperately wants a horserace, so the last thing they’ll admit is that McCain is hopelessly behind.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
But, but, the race is tightening!
October 29th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
I think the question is what do you do when you’re behind everywhere and running out of money? You pick one state that can serve as a proxy for all the states you need to fight for and make your last stand there, hoping you can give enough of a boost somewhere that it will make a difference. Pennsylvania is a pretty good choice — it’s neither southern nor New England, its western border is kind of midwestern, it’s rural and industrial and working class, and one of its two major cities is a steel town. It’s better for the narrative to be doing badly in states where you’re not campaigning, so he’s actually probably better off staying away from places like Ohio and Florida and Arizona. And the media seems to be buying it. At this point probably the only viable strategy is not to campaign to win but to campaign to hold ground and hope that some external factor damages Obama. I don’t think it’s going to work, but given McCain’s options it seems reasonable to me.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Ehh, from McCain’s point of view it’s not a horrible strategy. Any scenario in which McCain wins is one in which the national polling is off by at least five points or so. If he can concentrate on one state with a lot of electoral votes to try to shift it *another* five points, and then maybe pick up Ohio by osmosis, then maybe that works. And by “maybe,” I mean maybe it has a 10% chance of working instead of a 5% chance of working. That’s the situation the McCain campaign finds itself in… sitting back and acting normal is such a losing proposition at this point that any kind of goofy strategy that at least has the *possibility* of working, no matter how slim, might be a rational thing to do.
The funny wildcard here is the effect of the bad weather on Pennsylvania voting. McCain suffers from an enthusiasm gap; I wonder if in bad weather, the candidate with the enthusiasm problems suffers disproportionately from supporters who don’t feel it’s worth it to get to the polls.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
“If he conceded the truth, then whatever enthusiasm existed would evaporate and worsen his defeat.”
And is it the press’s job to help him out with his denial? Or is it their job to report the truth, even if that’s bad for the McCain campaign?
October 29th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Everything above, including Matt’s original post, is true. but McCain’s campaign is right to focus on PA, because it’s the only non-blowout state with a majority of culturally-conservative (and yes, that is a code-phrase!) Democrats. The reddish states McCain has lost are gone for good, because he lost them through active disaffection of Republicans and conservative independents. He’s right to focus on a blueish state where he’d only have to flip people once, rather than trying to flip them back. It won’t work, but it’s less outlandish than the alternatives.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Anyone remember when George Bush went to California in 2000? Now that was a wacky gambit.
The truth is McCain needs Pennsylvania or he needs Colorado + Virginia*. All three show him well behind. My guess is he thinks it’s easier to lay it on thick in one state than to try it in two, half a country apart.
*plus, in either case, hitting the inside straight on Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, NC, and either NH or Nevada, all of which are toss-up or lean-Obama.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
The press? Gullible? Nawwww……….
October 29th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Ehh. The press has to pretend that the outcome of this election is in doubt right up until it happens. How else is Chris Matthews gonna get people to stay up and stare at him until the wee hours of the morning?
In other news, I’m going to my first Obama rally on Thursday night at Mizzou. Can’t wait.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
I think unreasonable optimism in PA is shorthand for confidence in several closer states. Since he probably can’t campaign in all the close states he needs, he’s doing this silly gesture.
It’s easy (though obviously wrong) to say that PA is up for grabs. It’s harder to say “I can win FL, OH, NC, VA, CO, IN, MO.”
Since he knows he’s lost, and just wants to avoid landslide efects, projecting confidence is more important than winning electoral strategy.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Pennsylvania is the best of a series of bad options, mostly because Pennsylvania lack of early voting, as has been explained elsewhere. According to pollster.com McCain has cut into Obama’s lead a bit in PA, but Obama’s lead is still solid, and the “tightening” of the race there, if you ignore McCains probable loss in almost every other key swing state, is only just reason enough for a McCain supporter to get up in the morning. But they still probably start drinking around noon.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
As long as you’re putting terrorist attack on the list of possible scenarios, why don’t you add voter suppression? It’s happened far more often than terrorist attacks.
This reminds me of Jeb and George’s confidence in 2000 that they would win Florida. What we didn’t know was that thousands of voters had been purged from the polls, and a disproportionate number were black. We also didn’t know that a disproportionate number of black votes would be disallowed because of poor voting machines (see today’s NY Times). Now we know why they were so confident.
So, Matt, how ’bout adding one of those to your list of possible scenarios or reasons for McCain’s push there? Adam, Galen, and Josh raise some other possibilities.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
One can only hope; complacency in CA only helps prop 8 chances.
The same would be true for down-ticket races…
October 29th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
The press has to pretend that the outcome of this election is in doubt right up until it happens.
Remember, the impression of a close race actually helps Obama at this point. The last thing he needs is for people to think it’s a done deal and for all of his newly-registered voters to just stay home and not, you know, vote.
And furthermore, we don’t really know it’s a done deal until after they actually hold the election. Remember how everybody knew the Patriots were a sure thing in the Super Bowl? Remember Dewey Defeats Truman?
October 29th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
There are so many polls that it’s confusing. There’s also a study that shows that fluctuations during the last week are essentially statistical noise.
So, the 6% (+/-3%) lead of yesterday indicate either a 9% win or a 3% win. This morning bright and early the 6% lead (composite) had shrunk to 5% and was back up to 5.5% by noon. Sounds like a lot of noise to me.
Early voting seems to lean heavily to Obama. Here’s hoping. I won’t relax until I’ve downed either the Bollinger or the antacid next Wednesday at midnight.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
1) The big issue is not who supports Obama versus McCain — it is who will get out and vote. I think the Democratic Congress’s approval of a $1.5 Trillion bailout for Wall Street –no questions asked — disillusioned a lot of PA independents and PA Republicans who were planning to vote for Obama.
2) The RNC is pounding hell out of the Philly Main Line suburbs with robocalls for McCain — I get at least one or two a day. And these are not “Where does John McCain stand on the issues” calls. These are nasty Rovian smears.
Same goes for mailings. Latest from the Republican Party of PA , titled “Crime & Punishment” — and it ain’t about
Dostoevsky.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
After waiting 4 hours to early vote for Obama in Florida, I certainly hope McCain doesn’t win here. As for PA, someone in his camp figured that since Obama lost badly to Hillary there, it might be a worthwhile gamble; and maybe they thought Palin would be appealing to the Amish…… do the Amish vote??
October 29th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
“…complacency in CA only helps prop 8 chances.”
You mean, helps No on 8 chances? We want to avoid wrong-way voting as much as possible.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
The focus on Pennsylvania does seem to be driven by the idea that Western Pennsylvania is full of racists who have been lying to pollsters. It is not clear why they would do this lying. But it seems that people on both sides of the aisle (including on the Democratic side both Murtha and Rendell) have been buying into this idea.
It is true that in the primaries Rendell was just stumping for Clinton. And now he may simply be trying to such a little spending money out of the campaign and press entourages that come to the state following the candidates. So it may just be a limited focus tourism campaign thing for Rendell.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
I think it’s the credulity of McCain’s campaign about Pennsylvania that’s really remarkable. They’ve suckered their own fool selves into throwing a big chunk of their limited money down a rathole.
Well, last time I looked, there were are at least fifteen red states (based on the 2004 results) that Obama could conceivably take back from the GOP (The Guardian’s reporting even Arizona is very tight). It doesn’t look feasible that McCain could defeat Obama in all of them, so he desperately needs to take some blue real estate back from the Democrats. Given the demographics of Pennsyltucky, it’s a necessary Hail Mary pass if you’re John McCain. Mind you, a necessary Hail Mary pass is still a Hail Mary pass…
October 29th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Re Rupert’s comment “maybe they thought Palin would be appealing to the Amish…… do the Amish vote??”
———–
1) I very much doubt that a bloodthirsty moron would appeal to the Amish — who got the Conscientious Objector clause written into the Constitution.
2) There’s a huge difference between being a high income Federal welfare recipient and a self-sufficient community which provides for itself. Amish technology and expertise will seem a lot more attractive in a Great Depression. Unfortunately, so will their farmland.
3)Their hardware store, Lehmans , is heavily patronized by survivalists.
4) The Amish remember a lot of important things forgotten by the intellectual mice who waste their lives running frantically in the political and corporate squirrel cages.
How to keep warm, for example: http://www.lehmans.com/jump.jsp?itemType=PRODUCT&itemID=5639
5) Mayor Bloomberg of New York City knows who to call when he needs a tree cut down: http://www.the-daily-record.com/news/article/2931811
October 29th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Morale-wise, I would probably worry more about Virginia. It’s the tipping point state in a lot of the big EV maps. Real Clear Politics has Obama at 259 solid, with VA as the widest ‘leaner’ at around 7 points. Pollster.com has Obama at 272 solid (as does Slate.com), with VA included in that category.
If I were McCain, I would be doing everything I could to keep Virginia in play until Election Day, and hope that the national numbers close enough to take care of the rest.
October 29th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
If the relative merits of the Dalton lacrosse team (of which you’ve demonstrated great erudition in the past) come up in the closing days of the election we should, no doubt, defer to the Matthew Ygelsias store of true knowledge.
Likewise, anything about Early Admissions to Harvard or elite networking for young twentysomethings in the early 21st century.
But, you know, as goes Pennsylvania, its voters and the election, I’ll defer to grown-ups who actually know what they’re talking, folks like Ed Rendell.
Now is not the time to get complacent.
Or cocky.
First, we have to win.
October 29th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
Don Williams,
Do a search on “Amish” and “puppymills” and you’ll see one reason why those in Pennsylvania would be much more receptive to scumbag Republicans.
Prepare to be depressed.
October 29th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
But, you know, as goes Pennsylvania, its voters and the election, I’ll defer to grown-ups who actually know what they’re talking, folks like Ed Rendell.
Oh, yes, sure, let’s defer to the Pennsylvania politicians who surely have no vested interest in claiming that their state is a battleground and hanging out on TV for a week straight, increasing their national profile and DC cred should they be term-limited out of Harrisburg and want to then get work in Washington. (I actually hope Rendell becomes Secretary of Transportation so that someday SEPTA will not suck, but that’s another story.) But wait, Matt went to Harvard and he’s young so therefore we can dismiss everything he says out of hand.
Pennsylvania’s a media battleground, a usefully ‘Murkin place that happens to be a short distance from the two major media centers. It’s no longer a real electoral battleground, though.
I would however, caution Matt against relying on Pollster.com. 538’s infinitely better and much faster about reading and weighing new polls.
October 29th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Re Daniel’s comment “Do a search on “Amish” and “puppymills” and you’ll see one reason why those in Pennsylvania would be much more receptive to scumbag Republicans.”
————–
1) I concur that puppymills are an abomination and should be eradicated –both Amish and non-Amish ones.
2) But whatever their faults, the Amish did not invent and do not support the truly evil factory farms. Places so sickening that Southern legislatures passed laws banning animals rights people from taking photographs in such places.
3) Human civilization has been a parasite –as opposed to a random predator — on animals for 7000 years. Any farmer has to be somewhat heartless — but there’s a difference between sending a mature animal off to the slaughterhouse vice making that animal live in pain and misery its entire life.
4) The evil of factory farms, of course, is only exceeded by the hypocrisy of those genteel urban dwellers chowing down on their steaks and hamburgers. But what restaurant would prosper showing photographs on the wall of how that steak got to the plate?
October 29th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Clarification: Above post should have said “there’s a difference between sending a mature animal –REARED IN PASTURES AND SHELTERED IN BARNS — off to the slaughterhouse”
Traditional farmers and ranchers like the Amish , after all, are who provide habitat to animals. Urban dwellers, by contrast, pave over their habitat and run over the animals with their SUVs.
Urban Dwellers also join the Sierra Club and PETA while encouraging a million meat-eaters per year to immigrate into a United States that’s already over-populated.
October 29th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Two defenses of the press:
1) It’s clear that McCain’s strategy goes through PA. So saying McCain’s foolish–there’s no chance he wins PA–is pretty close to saying the election’s over, nothing more to see. And the press for obvious reasons doesn’t like to say that.
2) Long term voting trends should also be taken into account. PA is more of a swing state than AZ in this election, beause of structural factors, despite what the polls say. You don’t simply look at recent polling to decide which states are in play.
October 29th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Re Colatina’s comment “PA is more of a swing state than AZ in this election, beause of structural factors, despite what the polls say.”
————
True. PA has a high proportion of the elderly, who are attracted to McCain’s youthful virility.
October 29th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
The ASU poll has McCain leading Obama by only 2 points in Arizona. Personally, I would love for Obama to drop by the University of Phoenix stadium a half mile from my house in Glendale.
Winning the election is more important of course, but my greatest disappointment with Obama is that he never quite delivers the resounding bitch slap that Republicans so richly deserve. For Obama to come ninja the state of Arizona would be truly epic.
October 29th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
i hope all of you who are concerned about the GOTV are going to obama’s website and taking advantage of the online GOTV effort. it’s very, very cool.
you pick what area of the country you want to call and it gives you a fixed number of calls to make. for each call a form pops up with the person’s name, age, gender and a script. there are boxes to tick for various responses.
in addition to going to a GOTV phone bank the next town over last saturday and sunday (5 hours each day), sunday night i made 50 phone calls to Indiana and Nevada for the Obama campaign using the online platform.
i plan on repeating my efforts this weekend except i’ll be adding saturday evening to my phone calling duties.
it is up to us to get this thing done. obama cannot do it without us.
October 29th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
Somebody please explain the conventional wisdom caveat that a last minute terrorist attack would drastically alter the race?
Haven’t the votes won and committed to Obama include a consideration of who would fare best in a crisis? Is it just a nod to the polling that asks about such a scenario?
October 29th, 2008 at 6:54 pm
Re: Human civilization has been a parasite –as opposed to a random predator — on animals for 7000 years.
No: from a purely Darwinian perspective we and our domesticated animals are symbiotes, each contributing to the other. Natural selection doesn’t care about individual creatures’ quality of life; it only matter that species get to increase their raw numbers. There are far, far moe cows, pigs, sheep, chickens, dogs, cats etc. in the world than would exist if humanity had not doemsticated these creatures, or if humanity had never existed at all. The same can be said for our domestic plant species.
(Note: this is not an argument in favor of factory farming, but it is an argument against science with sentiment. Ethics is not derivable from biology)
October 29th, 2008 at 9:59 pm
Re JonF’s comment “from a purely Darwinian perspective we and our domesticated animals are symbiotes, each contributing to the other ”
—————
Remind me again –which one gets eaten?
October 29th, 2008 at 11:22 pm
If they call it for Obama and McCain wins, they’ll be proven wrong.
If they call it a horse race and Obama wins, okay fucker, prove it wasn’t a horse race a week ago.
October 31st, 2008 at 8:34 am
I’m not so sanguine about PA…last week’s This American Life was all about the race there, and why McCain even thinks it’s winnable. It’s clear that Obama’s strategy there relies on a combination of new young voters actually showing up at the polls, and on older white “undecided” Democrats breaking for Obama. Neither of these are anything to count on. Obama may well win it, but it’s definitely going to be a lot closer than 10 points.
I will also point out that Matt is notoriously bad at election predictions.
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