The New C-Webb
Bill Simmons nails this:
4. Gilbert Arenas will become the new C-Webb.
Not in a basketball sense, but in a “My God, why did we commit such a staggering amount of money to a guy who clearly has knee issues and might have already peaked as a player when nobody else could have come within $30 million of our offer?” sense. The Chris Webber contract murdered the Kings; Gilbert’s contract could murder the Wizards. And by the way, C-Webb was better than Gilbert — a healthy, happy C-Webb made you a title contender, whereas a healthy, happy Gilbert makes you a 5-seed in Round 1 at best. Big difference.
(When I asked for a one-sentence defense of Gilbert’s $113 million contract from my buddy House, a lifelong D.C. fan, here’s what he sent back: “I would prefer not to, as I think it is a franchise-crippler and thus indefensible.” Well said. When do you think sports franchises will break out of the “We need him to put butts in seats!” mindset and realize winners are the only things that put butts in seats? 2015? 2020? 2030? Hey, that reminds me …)
Exactly. Agent Zero made what’s got to have been one of the most rapid ascensions from underrated to overrated — from a guy nobody had heard of but who was actually good enough to be the best player on a so-so basketball team, to a guy who was on the cover of video games even though he was only good enough to be the star of a so-so basketball team. Now he’s hurt (again) and we’re getting our asses kicked by the Nets at home.
54 Responses to “The New C-Webb”
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October 31st, 2008 at 3:05 pm
They might realize that sometime after it becomes true, but not for a while yet.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Eh. Wait and see. I tend to think that there are only a handful of players worth max money (more than Arenas got), but the NBA market seems to disagree. Excluding the rooks, I’m not sure Arenas isn’t, at worst, in the middle of the talent or effectiveness/dollar list.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:12 pm
Time out!
Webber had a pretty nice career once he got out of Washington.
And Richard Hamilton, and… most anyone they trade away.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:14 pm
Tim, wait and see for what? If his knee problems clear up? Arenas is great fun to watch and can win games for you by himself. But, he can’t win play-off series for you by himself and its not clear when he’ll come back and how effective he will be.
Simmons is right on about this. Wiz should have done a sign-and-trade.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:14 pm
It does give me a little comfort whenever I lament the Jason Kidd trade. At the least the Mavs were not nearly as stupid as the Wizards.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:32 pm
a healthy, happy C-Webb made you a title contender
Yes, i remember all those titles that he and Juwan Howard brought to DC….
Gibert’s contract isn’t good but it isn’t Juwan Howard bad, and I don’t think there was too much out on the market. Plus a Gilbert-led team got them further in the playoffs than a Weber-led team ever did. oh, and ask any basketball fan who they’d rather have take the last-second shot for your team, Agent O or C Webb (but by that metric Horry’s an MVP).
October 31st, 2008 at 3:39 pm
My most optimistic take: the young players like Blatche and Young get some serious playing time early in the year and we stay within spitting distance of .500, then Arenas comes back in January and scores 28 points a game, but gets much more rest than he did in the past because we have been building depth and we have a few guards who can play. We could be a 40-45 win team in that scenario if we get hot at the right time and if all of the pretenders in the east (Toronto, Philly, Orlando, and Miami) turn out to be as mediocre as I expect them to be. The Cavs and Celtics will still be better than us, but if we can get the 4 seed we can win one round in the playoffs again and then get sent home. That is the most optimistic scenario I can fathom, and after writing it, it sounds awfully like a disappointing season to me anyhow.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Mojotron, I don’t think Simmons was talking about Webber in DC. A Webber-led team in Sacramento got within a fixed game of the Finals.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:41 pm
“Agent Zero made what’s got to have been one of the most rapid ascensions from underrated to overrated”
Hibachi!
“Now he’s hurt (again) and we’re getting our asses kicked by the Nets at home.”
Well, you can’t stop Josh Boone. You can only hope to contain him. Be realistic.
—–
In other NBA topics, is there any team more compelling this year than Houston?
Given the probable collapse of the Nuggets, I’m thinking I end up watching a lot of Cavs and Rockets games on League Pass this season…
October 31st, 2008 at 3:48 pm
At least the Cavs kept you all from giving way to much money to Larry Hughes.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:51 pm
You’ve been warned once already, keep complaining and David Stern will find some right wing friend of his (yeah, that’s YOU Clay Bennet) from out of town to sell your team to.
Signed,
Still Bitter Seattle Ex-NBA Fan
October 31st, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Why Webber, though; aren’t there a lot of other players who fit the profile so much better? Unlike the Kings, the Wizards were never top flight contenders. Moreover, Webber was a forward with semi-reasonable long-range expectations. Guards tend to fall off a cliff much faster. Yes, both players spent much of their careers staving off injuries, but I can think of a lot of better comparisons.. Off the top of my head:
Allan Houston
Latrell Sprewell
Stephon Marbury
Hey, its the Knicks!
October 31st, 2008 at 3:54 pm
“if we can get the 4 seed we can win one round in the playoffs again and then get sent home. That is the most optimistic scenario I can fathom, and after writing it, it sounds awfully like a disappointing season to me anyhow.”
Well, you could spend your energies rooting on Roger Mason Jr. in his bid for glory and a ring.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:54 pm
They might realize that sometime after it becomes true, but not for a while yet.
It is already true. Dave Berri ran a regression that showed that winning is positively correlated with a home team’s revenue, but “star power” is not. (OTOH, “star power” is positively correlated with *away* revenue – not that this helps owner of the star’s team.)
October 31st, 2008 at 4:00 pm
Now he’s hurt (again) and we’re getting our asses kicked by the Nets at home.
Yes, and it wasn’t even with a big game by Vince Carter. The tandem of Yi Jianlian and Jarvis Hayes were largely responsible for the Nets win. Still the Wizards shouldn’t be losing to the Nets on opening night at home – Jamison and Caron should be good enough to get you a win over one of the worst teams in the league.
That said, this is all speculation about Arenas. If he comes back in December and plays well (and I hope he does – I picked him up in the 10th round of my fantasy draft), the contract may in fact not be a franchise killer. Injuries are sufficiently unpredictable that I’m not comfortable calling Gilbert the second coming of C-Webb or Penny Hardaway.
October 31st, 2008 at 4:01 pm
“Why Webber, though; aren’t there a lot of other players who fit the profile so much better? … I can think of a lot of better comparisons.. Off the top of my head: Allan Houston, Latrell Sprewell, Stephon Marbury”
- Webber was the only title-worthy cornerstone of that group.
- Webber had a bigger contract than any of them.
- Webber, (like Gilberto), is the only one of the group derailed by injury, not semi-normal aging decline.
Also, the Webber contract is legendary because it did so much collateral damage for so long. It crippled Sacramento for half a decade. Kenny Thomas’s contract still continues to do damage to the Kings, and that’s residue from moving C-Webb. And the Webber contract drove Iverson out of Philly to boot. It blew up two teams.
October 31st, 2008 at 4:07 pm
“Still the Wizards shouldn’t be losing to the Nets on opening night at home – Jamison and Caron should be good enough to get you a win over one of the worst teams in the league.”
The Nets should win 35 games, Al.
They may not be playoff material quite yet, but they’re better than you (and the oddsmakers) think. You’ve got a nice young PG and a good scorer at the peak of his career – that ain’t nothing.
October 31st, 2008 at 4:10 pm
BTW – one of the things that Marv Albert and Czar Fratello were discussing on the telecast (the Nets might have a bad basketball team, but they have very good announcers) is that one of the hardest things for an owner to do is let the best player on a team go in free agency for nothing. Yes, you have to manage the salary cap, but the connection with the fans is hard to dismiss.
Now, I know Matthew wasn’t advocating letting Gilbert go – Matthew just wanted Pollin to offer less money. But even at, say, $90 million the contract would be a killer if Arenas turns out to be C-Webb. If Pollin had said, fine, go sign with the Clippers, the Wiz would have had cap space for the next few years, but it would take at least a year to cash that cap space in for players sufficient to make the team good, if it were doable at all (and I don’t know if it would).
October 31st, 2008 at 4:15 pm
Vince Carter hasn’t been at the peak of his career since 2001. That was his best year statistically and it was the last time he was capable of carrying a team to a winning record all by himself. His PER was 25 in 01 and it’s never topped 23 since then. Dude peaked in his early 20s, back when it was possible to argue that he was better than Kobe.
October 31st, 2008 at 4:19 pm
“Vince Carter hasn’t been at the peak of his career since 2001″
Your point is entirely correct. I just meant that age, body, and position-wise, a guy like Vince peaks right around his current age.
But, he’ll obviously never reach the production of his ‘01 season again. Something in the gene pool shared between him and his cousin produces atypical career patterns.
October 31st, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Gibert’s contract isn’t good but it isn’t Juwan Howard bad, and I don’t think there was too much out on the market.
That depends. If he gets healthy and productive again, this is true, but there is a reasonable chance he won’t get back to his previous level. In which case, yes, this is Juwan bad.
The lesson of the last year was that the Wizards were just as good with a more defensive-minded guard at point (and Antonio Daniels is sorely underrated). What did they do with that lesson? They gave a max contract to a player that had just had two knee surgeries. Could they be better with Arenas than without him? Of course – he’s a great player. But really… is he a championship-bringer? I really, really doubt it. As it is, I don’t think he is even the best player on the team anymore. So, he’s a 100 million dollar incremental improvement over a team that just made the playoffs. Yay.
October 31st, 2008 at 4:20 pm
too many at #8 come off it. The Lakers won the game, they Kings didn’t get homered and Kobe and Shaq were better for the finals that year than the rag tag shoot ‘em up sideshow known as the kings.
Lake Show Baby, yesterday, today and forevermore!
k1
October 31st, 2008 at 4:25 pm
“the Nets might have a bad basketball team, but they have very good announcers”
Considerably better last year than this year, however…
October 31st, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Vince Carter hasn’t been at the peak of his career since 2001. That was his best year statistically and it was the last time he was capable of carrying a team to a winning record all by himself. His PER was 25 in 01 and it’s never topped 23 since then.
Actually, the year he came over to the Nets from TOR (’05) he was still at his peak. If you look at the 57 games he played in NJ that year, his number were better than his best season in Toronto — he was over 25 PER (in fact, over that 2/3 of the year, he may have been the league MVP).
But I agree with Too Many Steves that he’s on the down trend now (I still want to keep him, though).
October 31st, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Here’s why I brought up the Knicks; Webber’s contract was huge, but the Kings at least had a shot at the title. Even the most optimistic Wizards fan knows they can’t beat the Celtics, Cavaliers, or even the Pistons.
October 31st, 2008 at 4:47 pm
And I’ll just note that the Denver opener was the most dispiriting Iverson game I’ve ever seen. He’s opening up the season with a bad ankle and bad knee that left him looking less active than I can ever recall.
I’ve been waiting for Bubbachuck to head off the cliff like Roadrunner the past two years, and I fear I may have seen it just happen. If the knee and ankle are bad in game 1, are they likely to be better in game 20?
And it’s always been obvious that when the end came for Bubbachuck, it would enter on the horse of a chronic knee or ankle problem.
Without speed, cutting, and elevation what else does he have? I’m a tentatively sad Petey.
—–
And speaking of C-Webb, I’ll note NBATV’s studio show this year features C-Webb and Gary Payton.
Now, I can listen to and enjoy almost anyone talk hoops, but Gary Payton, please get out of my head. He’s got a brand of incoherent yet incessant babble that eerily mimics a migraine.
I finally understand why he was always chirping on the court. If his man had to listen to that spew, no way he could concentrate on his shot. It’s no wonder GP had a rep as an elite defender.
October 31st, 2008 at 4:55 pm
The last time Arenas, Butler and Jamison were all healthy, The Wizards were the #1 team in the East. If Wizards could all stay healthy and Blatche Young and McGee develop to their full potential, they would be a legitmate Eastern conference contenders.
Of course, given that both Arenas and Butler have proven to be injury prone, the chances of that happening are pretty slim. But the chances of the Wizards becoming a contender would have probably been even lower if they blew up the team and started over again. Especially sice in order to get under the salary cap they would have had to get rid of both Arenas AND Jamison.
October 31st, 2008 at 5:02 pm
And I’ll just note that the Denver opener was the most dispiriting Iverson game I’ve ever seen.
I didn’t see the game, and can’t say anything about Iverson (I see ESPN.com has a big picture of him on the front page for Hollinger’s “All-decline team”), but losing a close game to Utah *without Carmelo* isn’t that bad.
October 31st, 2008 at 6:45 pm
What do you mean we, paleface?
October 31st, 2008 at 6:50 pm
Even the most optimistic Wizards fan knows they can’t beat the Celtics, Cavaliers, or even the Pistons.
Joel, I actually am the most optimistic Wizards fan. And it comes as news to me that the Wizards can’t beat any of those three teams. We’ve always played the Pistons hard, beat the Celtics short-handed last season, and the Cavs… Let’s just say no one on the Wizards is as ugly as the Cavs players. Booby Gibson is the only player on the Cavs who can be photographed without going all Japanese scary movie on your camera.
Yeah, with Gilbert healthy and the emergence of Javale “unveiled” McGee, the Wiz will be title contenders for at least the next 5-6 years. And much better looking than the Cavs. Truth.
October 31st, 2008 at 7:44 pm
“a healthy, happy C-Webb made you a title contender”
-Bill Simmons
And
“Mojotron, I don’t think Simmons was talking about Webber in DC. A Webber-led team in Sacramento got within a fixed game of the Finals.”
-too many steves
Funny, I always thought Games 5 was the fixed one where the refs fouled Shaq out while Vlade was taking dives.
What’s funny is that C-Web must have been “unhappy” a lot since the only time a team where he was the lead player got within a game of the Finals was that year.
I’m no fan of Arenas, and I actually liked the ball Chris played in Sacto *a lot* (it was my girlfriend’s favorite team and I had to “play nice” when the Lakers beat them). But let’s not hoist Chris up too high. Quality player, and a very good lead player on a team with a lot of talent. But certainly not a Franchise Player who instantly made his teams strong contenders. His teams rarely made runs in the post season, and more often under performed.
John
October 31st, 2008 at 8:52 pm
When do you think sports franchises will break out of the “We need him to put butts in seats!” mindset and realize winners are the only things that put butts in seats? They might realize that sometime after it becomes true, but not for a while yet.
That’s right. The Lakers with Cedric Ceballos and Rick Fox and Vlade Divac won lots of games and made the playoffs. They also averaged 13,000 a game. The Lakers with Kobe Bryant, the year they missed the playoffs, averaged over 18,500.
Winning helps, but star players put butts in the seats.
October 31st, 2008 at 9:38 pm
Greetings Matt,
As a former long time Washington/NOVA resident, I’d love to think the Wizards have reformed their front office, but it appears, with the absurd contract given to Arenas, that they are as incompetent as ever.
I would like to point out that Arenas and C-Webb are difficult to compare, as the latter at least (eventually) had a very good team around him in the Kings, whilst Gilbert has pretty much been on his own in DC, for the most part.
Still, once again the Wizards have made a major bumble in signing Arenas to such an anchor of a contract. I fear their long stint in the wilderness will be just that much longer.
October 31st, 2008 at 11:08 pm
I was a Sonics fan. Many years ago. My enjoyment of the NBA was sucked away. We got screwed by the owner and by the NBA, but my pleasure in NBA basketball went away in the aftermath of the Shawn Kemp trade. There is simply too much money and guaranteed contracts have ruined this game. Get rid of the contracts and buy insurance for the player. I am sick and tired of reading about the contracts and about players who get paid millions to sit on their asses and do nothing.
November 1st, 2008 at 12:50 pm
===
I’m guessing Joel meant “in a playoff series.” Of course the Wiz take games from the Pistons, Cs and Cavs, but a whole series? Doubtful.
===
===
Boy you really ARE the most optimistic Wiz fan aren’t you? (I kid.) I was at the season opener and the Wiz sucked. They had no plan, but that didn’t matter because they couldn’t execute anything anyway. Pretty much everyone on the team succumbed to their usual weaknesses. Butler was tentative, Jamison wouldn’t take it to the hoop, DeShawn was jacking up threes, Thomas has flippers for hands, Blatche decided he was a ballhandler, Nick Young…don’t get me started on Nick Young. He’s auditioning for the AND1 league. Tremendous self-confidence for no apparent reason.
OTOH I’m hoping it was a Redskins-style, one-time only horrible game and they pull it together as the season moves on. I mean, they probably won’t ALL play that badly EVERY game. And JaVale McGee was indeed a lot of fun to watch. He has a lot to learn, but the energy, athleticism and instincts were good to see.
As for Zero, I like Gilbert but you don’t go deep into the playoffs with a shoot-first point guard. It’s fun to watch, but it ends in tears.
November 1st, 2008 at 2:40 pm
“I didn’t see the game, and can’t say anything about Iverson (I see ESPN.com has a big picture of him on the front page for Hollinger’s “All-decline team”), but losing a close game to Utah *without Carmelo* isn’t that bad.”
It wasn’t the loss. It was the way Iverson suddenly looked ready for the old-folks home.
And in game 2 against the Clips, Iverson looked dead again for the first 30 minutes of the, making me even more worried, and then he suddenly seemed to realize that the season had begun, woke up, and led the Nuggets back from an 18 point deficit to win in overtime.
So, I’m a happier Petey today.
December 9th, 2008 at 6:46 am
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