The McCain Bubble?
New Pew poll shows what everyone already knows — John McCain is slipping a lot. But they also have interesting demographic breakdowns. People normally think of Democrats as always winning big among African-American voters, so there’s been relatively little attention paid to the fact that Obama is doing better than usual among blacks, improving performance enough to probably get a 1 percentage point boost overall versus what Kerry was doing. And he’s solid with Latinos as well. But here’s white voters only:
As you can see, what’s keeping McCain in the game here are huge margins among his fellow white senior citizens. That raises, in my view, the question of whether McCain isn’t primed for a catastrophic drop in support once people start attacking his social security position.
61 Responses to “The McCain Bubble?”
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October 1st, 2008 at 10:07 am
You are taxing the seniors’ brains by deleting the column titles in the table.
October 1st, 2008 at 10:08 am
Could we get the column headings?
October 1st, 2008 at 10:09 am
From a non-senior – you’re taxing my brain too – please add column titles!
October 1st, 2008 at 10:12 am
895 948 550 696 144 589
+19 -58 -68 +-7 pi avagadro
Who could possibly disagree with any of this?
October 1st, 2008 at 10:13 am
Is this one of those “Cinnamon Toast Crunch” things where only kids can see what the columns mean?
October 1st, 2008 at 10:13 am
That raises, in my view, the question of whether McCain isn’t primed for a catastrophic drop in support once people start attacking his social security position.
Has Obama even made Social Security an issue so far? I live in a swing state, with the second oldest population in the US, and I haven’t seen one commercial yet mentioning Social Security. My guess is, if he plays this card at all, Obama is waiting until the last week to use this.
October 1st, 2008 at 10:14 am
Columns 3 and 4 are the new polling data — Obama’s column 3, McCain’s column 4. Cols 1 and 2 are from an older poll. Col 5 is the movement toward Obama between the polls.
October 1st, 2008 at 10:20 am
That raises, in my view, the question of whether McCain isn’t primed for a catastrophic drop in support once people start attacking his social security position.
Been wondering that myself. Was Team Obama waiting for the economic shitstorm or something?
October 1st, 2008 at 10:21 am
McCain’s got the grumpy old white man vote locked up tight.
October 1st, 2008 at 10:27 am
By the way, McCain really isn’t “in the game” at these levels, and one of the reasons why is Obama is doing much better than Kerry among–gasp!–white people. Specifically, Bush beat Kerry by about 17 points among white people, but McCain in this poll is only +6. And although some people have focused on white women, McCain is actually doing much worse across the board in relative terms: among white men, it was Bush +25 but McCain is only +15 (among white women it was Bush +11 to McCain’s -1, so only a slightly greater drop in relative support).
October 1st, 2008 at 10:32 am
Has Matt Y ever posted a decent table or chart?
October 1st, 2008 at 10:36 am
Here’s a crass point that is never mentioned — lots of white racists and Reagan Dems (not saying one begets the other) and even cultural conservatives have died in the past four years. And this has a cascading effect all down the demographic table. Today’s 18-22 is more progressive than 18-22 four years ago … and today’s 60-65 are more progressive than four years ago’s 60-65.
In some ways, this is less about Obama’s strength and more about the country becoming inevitably more progressive.
October 1st, 2008 at 10:48 am
I realize Matt puts up a lot of posts everyday. But damn, he’s a professional blogger — could he just once check to make sure the table or graph he’s posting is actually understandable to the rest of us?
October 1st, 2008 at 10:51 am
I’ll just echo the other comments, can you update with some column headings?
October 1st, 2008 at 10:52 am
As you can see…
I can’t see squat, because the columns aren’t titled.
October 1st, 2008 at 10:52 am
Here’s what Biden could do tomorrow night that would really advance the message:
He should look into the camera and say: “I know John and he describes himself as a maverick and a gambler. I gotta tell you folks, we don’t need a gambler and a maverick in the White House right now. Let me give you one example – maverick McCain wants to privatize your social security, that’s right, he wants to play craps with your retirement on the stock market. We can’t afford a risky maverick/gambler in the White House.”
The Obama campaign needs to negatively define the word “maverick” to make it synonymous with “gambler” and tie it to privatized social security.
October 1st, 2008 at 10:55 am
Forget’em. Old white guys are going to vote for the old white guy. All anyone else could do is tickle the margins a bit. McCain could promise to personally come by and kick them in the nuts and they’d still vote for him.
October 1st, 2008 at 10:57 am
The column headings are:
Sept. 9-14 Obama % | Sept. 9-14 McCain % | Sept. 27-29 Obama % | Sept. 27-29 McCain % | Sept. Obama Change | Late Sept. N
Here’s the full table with the headings:
http://people-press.org/reports/images/456-5.gif
October 1st, 2008 at 11:01 am
Okay, I’ve got this figured out. The first two columns are Obama and McCain in the Sept. 9-14 period. Ignore them. Anything interesting from those two columns is contained in the other columns.
Column 3 is Obama Sept. 27-29, and Column 4 is McCain in that period. Column 5 is the change (from Obama’s perspective) from Sept. 9-14 to Sept. 27-29. Column 6 is the number of individuals polled.
So looking at columns 3,4 and 5, you can see McCain is doing particularly well among white folks who are ill-educated and/or old. It’s a shame this doesn’t further break those categories down into the white mentally handicapped and white senile, because those demographics are probably even more enthusiastically in favor of McCain, and go a long way to explaining McCain’s success in the broader categories of the white old and ill-educated.
October 1st, 2008 at 11:02 am
65+ was also who was voting for Hillary. Then it was spun as blue collar vs. elite. Or women vs. men. But Obama and Clinton split women pretty evenly when looking at just those under 65. No doubt, a big bulk of “HS or less” are 65+ people. I’m not sure if issues matter that much. I think it is Obama’s skin color. My grandparents are great people (90s now), but they and their friends grew up in a time before Jackie Robinson, much less MLK. Even if they are consciously not racist, their subconscious is programmed that way. Much like baby boomers with gays.
October 1st, 2008 at 11:15 am
First 2 columns are for Sept 9-14 poll, and second 2 are for Sept 27-29. The colums are Obama %, McCain %, Obama %, McCain %, % change for Obama, and the last column is N (number of people polled in that category).
I’m surprised Obama isn’t doing better among White men. I think that may pick up more closer to the election as people get a comfort level with Obama and McCain crashes and burns.
October 1st, 2008 at 11:20 am
I think the last row in the table is also important. This clearly shows uneducated white people favor McCain. That is just great, old white people and stupid white people may decide the fate of the country. Would anyone ever let these people make major decisions anywhere else?
I am not advocating that stupid people and old people should not have a right to vote, but merely pointing out one of the perils of a democracy; that the election may be decided by the least educated and the people that will be least affected in the long term from the decisions that the next president will make. (i.e. old people die and will not have to deal with John McCain’s mess 20-40+ years from now)
October 1st, 2008 at 11:24 am
The difference between the Obama and McCain campaigns:
Obama has a new ad out this morning proactively asserting that his healthcare policy lies at the center of the left->right continuum (and, implicitly, placing McCain’s plan on the right). He realizes that McCain’s attacks on healthcare will be fierce in October – slippery slope to socialism and all that – plays well with independent voters who liked McCain vintage 2000. Obama’s also been on the offensive defending and defining his tax plan since the convention – an obvious line of attack coming up from McCain.
Where’s McCain defending and redefining his plans for Social Security as something other than Privatization? Where is he trying to sell his tax plan as something aimed at the middle class and not the rich? Where is he trying to promote whatever aspects of his career look good when it comes to womens’ rights, equal pay, etc. These are all obvious attacks (especially Social Security) that are inevitably going to come his way in October, and he’s totally unprepared.
Note that it was exactly this lack of appropriate preparation that made his Palin pick necessary to give him the needed ground game since he’d squandered several competition-free months not building one.
October 1st, 2008 at 11:29 am
so during sept obama’s biggest gains are 50-65 year old people making 75k+ with some college.
October 1st, 2008 at 11:29 am
Here’s something I’m curious about: has anyone tried to price into the political market the boost the GOP gets from voters for whom this is their last election? If McCain were to win in 08, how much would his support be eroded in 2012 by seniors who are no longer healthy enough or alive enough to vote?
October 1st, 2008 at 11:35 am
That raises, in my view, the question of whether McCain isn’t primed for a catastrophic drop in support once people start attacking his social security position.
For what my prediction is worth, Obama would gain only at the margins with the SS issue. Most of these old bastards will vote for Son of Cain no matter what. If nothing has changed their minds yet, I don’t know what will. Old cranky bastards in denial love and identify with other old cranky bastards in denial.
October 1st, 2008 at 11:44 am
The interesting thing to me is, that McCain’s edge among older folks & those with less than HS education comes not from his own over-performance, but from Obama’s very low numbers among those groups … meaning there are a lot of undecideds in those demographic groups. That gets presented a lot as “obama hasn’t closed the deal” (the unofficial motto of The Moderate Voice, which is starting to drive me mad, btw). But people should also note that Obama’s levels of support among his base demographics are higher than McCain’s are among these demographics, that are his only chance for victory. McCain hasn’t closed the deal with these people, either, and Obama will have a big opening to keep his margins here small. In which case, Obama will end up with 300+ electoral votes.
October 1st, 2008 at 11:46 am
GL’s exactly right, Biden can deliver a rather strong blow on this front and he should be the one that does it, not Obama.
October 1st, 2008 at 11:50 am
I really don’t want to harp on you over and over again, so let me just recommend:
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October 1st, 2008 at 11:54 am
Mark B.,
I agree Obama has more room yet to improve among white men, but keep in mind that even at his current levels, he is considerably outperforming Kerry. Indeed, at current levels he is very likely to win the election, and if he improves even more among white men the election will very likely be a blowout.
Another way to put this is that the entire Republican national election strategy absolutely depends on running up the score among white men. If they can’t do that, they lose, potentially very big.
October 1st, 2008 at 12:09 pm
“so during sept obama’s biggest gains are 50-65 year old people making 75k+ with some college.”
Isn’t that the traditional Republican base?
October 1st, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Puny humans. At Harvard the learn how to impute the column headings.
October 1st, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Old white guy here -
You could not pay me enough (not 700 billion) to vote for McCain
October 1st, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Yikes! Obama’s losing the massive “elderly ignorant” demographic! Perhaps he can win them back by proposing legislation to make early bird specials tax deductible.
October 1st, 2008 at 12:35 pm
That’s Numberwang!
October 1st, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Matt, I really wanna hear why you think the social security issue is going to come into play in the last month of the campaign, if it’s been a non-issue so far.
October 1st, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Seniors don’t base presidential votes on Social Security position because they know no one is going to step on the third rail by actually making a change that effects them. So, a politican can get some youger voters by talking about Social Security without losing the older ones who know it’s all talk that won’t effect them. When it finally becomes to bad for political denial and something gets done it will look like todays bailout process, a panic driven scramble to put together a colalition of pols who can afford to take the hit for doing something unpopular.
October 1st, 2008 at 1:03 pm
I’m not sure whether anyone has pointed this out yet, but the column headings are missing…
October 1st, 2008 at 1:46 pm
The takeaway is that among whites, McCain leads with the old (i.e. racists) and the uneducated (i.e. stupid). Great demographic there.
October 1st, 2008 at 1:47 pm
The other element to consider is the ‘registered voters only’. I’ve been seeing a significant number of new registrations for the last six weeks, and there’s no way the pollsters have been picking up on those people. This election is going to test many elements of conventional wisdom and polling. Fingers crossed, for Obama.
October 1st, 2008 at 2:16 pm
It is the 401(k) biteback. I expected that from the GOP’s amazingly clumsy vote on the bailout, and the subsequent drop of the market. Look at Florida swinging to Obama. What the Republicans did is scared the shit out of their financial supporters, all those managers, lawyers, doctors who are depending on investments to retire. Although it would be nice to think that Social Security would make the white retiree crowd vote against McCain, I don’t think that the white retirees believe that McCain, even if he wants privatization, will ever get it. I’d concentrate more, if I were Obama, on being the voice of reason for the 401 (k) crowd. I think he could definitely accrue another 8 to 10 points there. Plus, their kids will be encouraging that decision.
October 1st, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Frankly, seniors don’t care about Social Security. They already have it. I don’t think that line of attack is going to bring Obama’s numbers up in that demographic. They like McCain because they feel him. They like all of that talk about Eisenhower and the way the world was back in the day.
October 1st, 2008 at 3:32 pm
poll numbers prove matt yglesias is the blogger least able to use a table correctly on his blog.
October 1st, 2008 at 4:22 pm
Columns. Heading. Missing.
October 1st, 2008 at 4:25 pm
Dumbass – put the column headings back on.
October 1st, 2008 at 4:39 pm
It seems that there is an attempt by Democrats and media persons to cook up a self-fulfilling victory margin for Mr. Obama. The Gallup Poll, however, shows Obama with a 4% lead currently, which is shrinking, and seems to be in a one-week periodic cycle with each candidate alternately on top.
October 1st, 2008 at 7:57 pm
Re: Matt, I really wanna hear why you think the social security issue is going to come into play in the last month of the campaign, if it’s been a non-issue so far.
I agree. Whatever his posoution Mccain has enough not to talk about it. Even George Bush back in 204 knew better.
Re: The Gallup Poll, however, shows Obama with a 4% lead currently, which is shrinking
Classic whistling past the graveyard.
Gallup has usually been an outlier, understating Obama relative to almost all other polls, most of which show a slowly growing Obama lead, notably in key states. Some even put Florida, Ohio and Virginia in Obama’s column now, with Michigan and Pensylvania firmly so and North Carolina and Nevada dead-locked.
October 31st, 2008 at 8:08 pm
If I apply your stats against census figure.
US Population
67% white
15% hispanic
13% black
4% asian
= McCain wins by a huge margin.
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