The McCain Brand
John Heilemann’s article on how John McCain tarnished his brand and has managed to see his stock plummet among his ex-fans in the press corps is worth a read. That said, he seems to be underplaying structural factors. If you’re a center-left pundit who usually pulls the lever for Democrats but also hates and loathes the dread liberal “base” (a common condition) then as long as the relevant comparison class is between McCain and other Republicans (Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, George W. Bush) he can look pretty good. And you might admire McCain’s clashes with his base and say that you wish more Democrats would pick similar fights. But once the comparison becomes between McCain and a Democrat that you’re still the kind of person who usually pulls the lever for Democrats and suddenly McCain doesn’t look so good. Then for a “straight” reporter, once you see that the McCain Fan Club in the center-left punditocracy is losing all its members, then it becomes a bit less acceptable to be as in-the-tank for McCain as the press has often been. None of this, though, is really due to anything McCain did.
Meanwhile, it’s hard not to be suspicious of any convenient moralism which holds that adopting lowbrow campaign tactics has actually been a mistake for McCain. I think you can make a credible argument that the reverse is true. The so-called “fundamentals” in this race have always favored Obama and everyone’s always known that. But most people have long had some doubts as to how much traditional analysis would apply in a race featuring a black candidate. I think there’s a strong argument to make that the smart play for McCain would have been to try to inject much more racial controversy into the election, much sooner.
37 Responses to “The McCain Brand”
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October 7th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
The center-left pundits had an affinity for the John McCain who ran against Bush in the 2000 primary. That person bears no resemblance to the shell of a man who has run this year (including in the Republican primary when he lied about Romney’s position on Iraq). Consequently, I believe the “structural factors’ are far less determinative than you believe, Matt.
October 7th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
I really don’t understand why injecting race into the debate is effective at all. If you’re afraid of or resentful of blacks, you’re already leaning red. What does injecting race do? Remind people that Barrack is black? Remind people of what they already feel? I don’t understand. I really don’t.
October 7th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Also, the McCain campaign is being called out for their current tactics and they don’t seem to be doing them any good. I find it hard to believe that they would’ve worked much better earlier in the election.
October 7th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
As a center right new imiigrant I was almost positive that I would vote for McCain when the primaries started. His Iraq war stance bothered me but I could see past that and supported his principled stands against the tax breaks and his ability to work with democrats. My disappoinment began with the VP pick. The financial crisis really converted me. Now the Ayers ads made me come to the conclusion that I could never vote for McCain. Here is someone I thought was the mature choice and he was acting like a petulant teenager.
October 7th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Re “The so-called “fundamentals” in this race have always favored Obama and everyone’s always known that. ”
————–
Oh, bullshit. The Republicans have screwed the people of this country likes dogs for 8 years — and yet McCain was still cleaning Obama’s clock after the convention.
And David Plouffe was calling those who criticized his timid, inept campaign “bedwetters”.
Somehow I don’t think having your campaign saved by a surprise once-in-a-hundred-years financial collapse is a mark of competence.
I saw this same goddamm shit back in 1988. First Gary Hart grabbed the nomination –and then blew it to hell being photographed on a yacht with his mistress and a dazed expression. After publicly denying the affair.
Then a Democratic dwarf named Dukakis –who had no military experience — dressed up like a soldier and was photographed with a Sad Sack expression looking out of a Army tank. The country collapsed with laughter.
Two weeks AFTER George H Bush ascended to the throne, he told us that we had a little problem called the Savings and Loan disaster. A problem that somehow had escaped the notice of all those Democrats on the oversight committees.
It is only by mere chance that the voters are finding out how badly they are screwed before the election — instead of after.
October 7th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Matt: Speaking of the fundamentals, you need to do a post analyzing the new CW forming that Obama is only winning because of the credit crisis. The narrative ignores the polling trends between the McCain convention bounce and the announcement of the bailout plan as well as the underlying fundamentals that have existed since the beginning of the campaign. Obama was going to be winning by 3-5 points at this point anyway. If you subscribe to the 2008 as 1980 theory, Obama’s lead inevitably would have continued to increase as people became more comfortable with him as a legitimate, safe option. The credit crisis — and the candidates’ contrasting responses to it — may simply have expedited that process. Beware of any narrative that would give the Republicans an excuse for getting crushed in November. It will be used to try to de-legitimize the Democrats’ mandate in January.
October 7th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Advertising wise, they should have used the fairly creative Celebrity adds after the conventions, or even now. Imagine those adds spliced with the image of Obama at Mile High Stadium. It’s the only thing that made a dent in the polls, which were fairly even going into the conventions.
But the economic circumstances probably trump anything McCain could do, and Obama is basically running out the clock at this point.
October 7th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Re “Obama is basically running out the clock at this point.”
——-
And where does that leave the CONGRESSIONAL Democrats in tough fights around the country –especially in the Red States?
No Congressional candidate has the huge microphone that the Presidential nominee has. So when the Presidential nominee FAILS to kick the living shit out of the opposing party, that undercuts Congressional Democrats. Because it shortcircuits the whole story that the voters should choose them.
When Obama says he wants to work WITH the Republicans, then the Red States voters figure that ,well, in that case they’ll send him a couple.
Has anyone seen Obama campaigning WITH a Congressional Democrat lately?
October 7th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
I do enjoy this round of concern trolling from my side of the aisle – oh dearie me, it’s such a shame that John McCain is ruining his brand. O my stars and garters!
The point of a brand is to use it to do something. Sell cars, win elections, whatever. Like many people have said, this is the 72-year-old McCain’s last shot. What good is it for him to keep polishing his brand?
Since 2000 we Dems have been begging for candidates who are willing to get down and dirty, stop bringing a knife to a gun fight, etc. etc. IMO that’s exactly what John McCain is doing. Things look bad for him. He could roll up in a ball and give up. He could go on a sort of retirement tour, playing nice and letting us all remember what a great guy he is. Or he could whip out the kitchen sink and go down fighting. I don’t like it, but I get why he’s doing it.
October 7th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
If I were the Obama campaign right now, I would make a full court press to get Colin Powell’s endorsement. Powell must be looking at the gutter into which McCain-Palin have driven this campaign — especially in light of the coordinated racially-charged character assassination taking place. Arguably, even in light of his role in the Bush Administration’s first time, Powell is one of the most respected public figures in the country. The best way for Obama to parry McCain’s personal attacks and reassure swing voters at the same time? I think a Powell endorsement right now would seal the deal and put one more nail in the McCain-Palin coffin.
http://djbwillthinkforfood.blogspot.com/
October 7th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Has anyone seen Obama campaigning WITH a Congressional Democrat lately?
===
When Obama set up his campaign offices, his people contacted local Dems and offered to partner with them – telling them, “we’re setting up an office in your district. If you want to share the load and work with us, great. If not, we’ll do it on our own.” Unsurprisingly most local Dems jumped at the offer.
Obama’s people are working closely with local Democrats and letting them leverage Obama’s formidable ground operation. In my corner of the world (heavily Obama) we get Obama people coming around every weekend and they are always sure to push the local congressional candidates too.
It’s odd to criticize Obama for not doing something that he is doing very well.
October 7th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
Re “It’s odd to criticize Obama for not doing something that he is doing very well.”
————
Well, maybe you’re lucky. Here on the Pennsylvania Main Line, we went 60-40 for Obama over Hillary in the Primary.
Yet I see my goddamm Republican congressman , Jim Gerlach, skating to reelection. Even though he’s barely won — by 1 to 2 percent — in three previous campaigns.
October 7th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
I guess it all depends on how McCain wants to go down in history. Will he be the basically honorable POW who lost with grace or as the race baiting, erratic, old coot? If he stands up to his running mate or any of his rabid supporters who are calling Obama a terrorist and calling for someone to be killed, then we’ll remember him as one of the good guys, but standing by and doing nothing isn’t going to look good in the history books. Everything McCain owns really belongs to Cindy, all that he really has is his “honor,” by engaging in these questionable tactics, he’s giving up the one thing that is really his. He’ll probably die a broken, much diminished man.
October 7th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
For some reason, however, Jim Gerlach doesn’t have George W Bush coming into the area to campaign for him the way he has done in the past.
October 7th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
I’ve long expected October to be Black History Month as the GOP goes back to the long history of racial animonsity and gets up-front about who the GOP were and how they got to be who the GOP are. (Is?) Kevin Phillips articulated The Southern Strategy for the modern Republicans, but it’s been the same old gas since Stephen Douglas.
Palin: black black black blackety black black [wink].
McCain: Now, Sarah, that’s not blackety black black [grimace].
October 7th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
“Yet I see my goddamm Republican congressman , Jim Gerlach, skating to reelection. Even though he’s barely won — by 1 to 2 percent — in three previous campaigns.”
It’s a race labeled Republican Favored with a challenger with low name recognition and low funding in a state Obama isn’t in trouble in. Maybe you should ask him to help himself first?
Also, running up the House margin doesn’t seem all that relevant. There’s no cloture rule; a 50-seat margin is fine for passing anything.
October 7th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Then a Democratic dwarf named Dukakis – who had no military experience — dressed up like a soldier and was photographed with a Sad Sack expression looking out of a Army tank. The country collapsed with laughter.
For the record: Dukakis “was drafted into the Army after he graduated from Swarthmore College in 1955, about two years after the July 1953 armistice was signed at Panmunjom. He later served 16 months as a private as part of a United Nations contingent in South Korea.”
I must be completely blind, by the way, as I’ve always had to take everybody’s word that he looked like an idiot in that picture. To me, he looks like a guy in a tank.
October 7th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
You wouldn’t like to make that argument, would you, Matt?
October 7th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
In 2000 the structural factors favored Gore – incumbent party, 8 years of relative peace and prosperity. And Gore actually won the popular vote and arguably the electoral vote as well. But the “Gush v. Bore” “invented the Internet” media tilted the playing field in favor of Bush the “different kind of Republican” and made it close enough for him to steal the election. If the media had not turned on McCain but continued to protect him from his errors and lack of genuine appeal (as Tom Brokaw still does), McCain would be winning now.
October 7th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Whoa, Matt!
Did you see this thread over at Kevin Drums?
The consensus in the comments seems to be the devil we know, id est, Bush43.
Hard to swallow, no? I mean w/ that wad of naked fear stuck in one’s throat.
October 7th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Re DonBoy’s comment “I must be completely blind, by the way, as I’ve always had to take everybody’s word that he looked like an idiot in that picture. To me, he looks like a guy in a tank.”
————
1) Well, we asked the country what they thought he looked like and here was the answer:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:ElectoralCollege1988.svg
2) Here’s the description of the response to Dukakis’s in the tank moment:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Dukakis#Public_relations_failure:_The_.22Tank.2FHelmet.22_disaster
Dukakis had a 17 PERCENT lead in the polls over George H Bush when this happened.
How much of a lead does Obama have at the moment?
October 7th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
“Yet I see my goddamm Republican congressman , Jim Gerlach, skating to reelection. Even though he’s barely won — by 1 to 2 percent — in three previous campaigns.”
It’s a race labeled Republican Favored with a challenger with low name recognition and low funding in a state Obama isn’t in trouble in
As Adam notes, Bob Roggio isn’t exactly a household name. Someone people had heard of (e.g., Lois Murphy for the 3rd time) would be doing better.
Moreover, as you know, the 6th CD is gerrymandered, containing now-Democratic Lower Merion and the still-Republican East Main Line in Chester County — and the rest of it is in Joe Sestak’s district. The 6th stretches from the Philadelphia city line to Reading, and contains pretty heavily Republican areas in Berks and Chester Counties.
October 7th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
and the rest of it is in Joe Sestak’s district
That is, the rest of the Main Line is in Sestak’s district. Stupid cut-and-paste errors.
October 7th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Don Williams: I know how it was received, and I know how the vote went. I’m just saying that to me, the picture doesn’t support the mockery. Is the point that he’s short? The wiki text just says “Although he served in the U.S. Army, Dukakis was widely mocked for what was perceived as martial posturing.” That doesn’t seem to blame the image, as such. Yes, I know I’m in a minority.
October 7th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
I couldn’t disagree more. McCain has been and given the circumstances still remains pretty competitive. Even though he is widely disliked (or at least distrusted) by GOP insiders. Even though he has largely lost his mavericky mojo. Even though he selected a know-nothing neophyte as his VP (she also winks!) The GOP brand is worth less than Enron nowadays. Still McCain is within striking distance of Obama.
I don’t exactly know why. I think it has nothing to do with Obama himself as a person. As Hillary found out, he is a shrewd and formidable candidate. Part of the reason may be that most GOP voters have a visceral hatred of democrats. The other unstated reason is probably covert racism which usually manifests itself by calling Obama inexperienced or is empty suit (he is clearly neither). That allows folks to run away from the real reason why they don’t want to vote Obama. In a perverse it makes them feel good about themselves. From that perspective, I think McCain gains a lot by not running an overtly racist campaign. If he did it would force some folks to face the real reason, which in a strange way might end up helping Obama.
October 7th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
I dunno, 2cynical. I’m not really impressed by Obama as a candidate. He has good days, and days when he strikes me as Dukakis with better soundbites.
Hillary lost that campaign through her own hubris, and because of her support for the Iraq war.
October 7th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
It’s never a good strategy for America to have a candidate “inject much more racial controversy into the election”. It might be good for McCain’s chances but it would certainly diminish both McCain and the country he seeks to govern more than any value McCain could add as President.
It’s not a freebie to use racial tension to win. You unleash very real forces that damage our society. You can justify doing anything to win in a high stakes game but governing isn’t simply a game. It’s not convenient moralism to say stoking racial hatred comes with a historically high price, it’s an inconvenient truth.
October 7th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
“Then for a “straight” reporter, once you see that the McCain Fan Club in the center-left punditocracy is losing all its members, then it becomes a bit less acceptable to be as in-the-tank for McCain as the press has often been. None of this, though, is really due to anything McCain did.”
This is a very insightful point, the kind of against-the-grain truth that should win an “Yglesias Award”, but never will because of who gives out the nominations.
October 8th, 2008 at 7:50 am
I agree with Matt in terms of the center-left journalists actually voting for McCain. I don’t really think any of them would actually vote for him or endorse him over the Democratic nominee even in the days when they had a full-fledged love affair with him.
But in terms of the tone of their coverage, I think McCain’s action and tactics these last few months have had an impact. Reading some of their columns these last few weeks has been both sad and funny; some of them sound like a deserted mistress or something. All these hand wringing about what happened to the wonderful McCain of the past, etc etc. I think there is a real sense being either betrayed or hoodwinked for some of these journalists.
Of course, there would always be those still stupid enough to believe that, hey, McCain is just acting this way because he has to in order to win the election. He’ll turn back into the great, strong, ethical man that he was once he become President! You’ll see! Heh. I have nothing but scorn for those people.
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