The Mandate Myth
Mike Petrilli wonders “Will Obama have a mandate on education?” and answers “not really.” Kevin Carey says “I think he’s right.”
Not me. Or, rather, I think the evidence suggests that mandate is a meaningless concept. America went to the polls in 2000 and whatever you think of what went down in Florida, clearly more people overall voted for Al Gore than for George W. Bush. What’s more, a substantial minority of people voted for a candidate who thought Gore was insufficiently leftwing. And the exit polling made it clear that Bush had the edge over Gore on a bunch of “character” issues. This series of facts, combined with the regnant ideology of mandate-ism, led a lot of pundits to conclude that Bush would, due to his lack of mandate, curtail his agenda. In fact, he did no such thing. And while that was bad for the country, the lack of a mandate wasn’t a practical problem.
That’s not to say that a president can just do whatever he wants. But Congress is an autonomous actor in this. Things that there’s only weak congressional opposition to (tax cuts) are easy for a committed President to implement, and things that there’s strong congressional opposition to (Social Security privatization) are hard for a committed President to implement. As it happens, Ted Kennedy and George Miller were open to doing something NCLBesque during Bush’s first term and so it got done. But had those guys had safe seats, they weren’t coerced by fear of Bush’s popularity into working with him, and had they disagreed on the merits with the testing-and-accountability idea it just wouldn’t have happened no matter how much of a “mandate” Bush acquired.
29 Responses to “The Mandate Myth”
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October 15th, 2008 at 11:50 am
besides the tax cuts, Bush wasn’t able to get much done at all when he came to office. It was 9/11 that gave him a ‘mandate’ to do anything the hell he wanted.
October 15th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
In addition, Bush claimed a mandate from the 2004 election and then promptly got gobsmacked on Social Security reform. Most of his problems of being stymied happened after receiving that mandate.
October 15th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
Matt:
Go back and read some news stories from 2001. For the first nine months, Bush was ineffective and rudderless. It was only after 9/11 that Congress started deferring to the White House.
October 15th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
The last president able to persuade anyone that he had a mandate was Reagan. But Reagan had a Republican Senate to work with, plus a lot of conservative, not-yet-realigned Democrats.
This whole notion of a mandate, when you boil it down, implies that duly-elected senators and congressmen should ignore the will of their constituents, and instead bow to the wishes of, say, 54% of the people in the rest of the country. But senators and congressmen have mandates of their own.
Fortunately, I don’t think anyone in Congress really believes in mandates, apart from the rewards and punishments that a newly-elected president can actually bring to bear.
October 15th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
As long as Obama frames these things for what they are: investments, he should be able to move public opinion.
It is a crime that anyone qualified to attend college has to either give up that opportunity or hock their entire economic future to get in.
The same with health care. Why should we tolerate an uninsured class?
The rich or well off understand this, and I saw an example of this understanding on CNBC. Some talking head was criticizing the Obama tax plan which would raise taxes on those making over $250k. He noted that he lived in New York where the cost of living is much higher than most other places, and he suggested that the plan needed a COLA to take this into account.
This is exactly what universal health and education represent: COLA. These are known expenses that everyone would like to be able to afford, and the well off can afford them. If we had a COLA for everything that was necessary for a modest, yet fulfilling life, we could even move to a flat tax. If a person could deduct the average cost of living in their area from their income, and get free health care and educational benefits, then we would have a pretty level playing field.
If you live in a nicer than average house, your COLA will not cover all of your expenses, so what.
With a COLA, there is little distinction between a regressive tax and a progressive tax.
October 15th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Re Bush and Social Security reform in 2005: My impression at the time was that his problem was not that voters hadn’t supported him but that he hadn’t said diddly squat about that idea during the campaign.
Bush had a mandate to (a) continue the Iraq War and (b) not be John Kerry.
Bush ran heavy on education reform and tax cuts in 2000, and of course that helped him get what he wanted, along with the other favorable circumstances Matt notes.
October 15th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Don’t we already have a mandate on education? It’s called, “If your minor child isn’t enrolled in some sort of schooling, go to jail.”
October 15th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
it’s much simpler than that.
if you’re a republican, you always have a mandate, no matter how many fewer votes you got.
if you’re a democrat, you never have a mandate, no matter how many more votes you got.
c’mon, matt–haven’t you learned anything about how the press works?
October 15th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Looking to the last election results for a mandate is an outdated concept in an age of constant opinion polling.
In 2010, a President Obama’s ability to get things done will depend much more on his current approval ratings than on his margin of victory two years ago.
October 15th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
I agree with most of this, but are you really suggeting that Ted Kennedy did not have a safe seat in 2001?
October 15th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
“Spanish and Muslim will be added as the second and third official languages of the United States.”
“Oil and gas furnaces will be outlawed and all homeowners will be required to install atheist windmills and pagan (Sun God) solar panels.”
Learn more about the Obama SECRET PLAN to install BLACK SOCIALISM in America! None dare call it conspiracy!! Time is running out!! Do something!!
October 15th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
his mandate will be “dont be a crazy Republican dbag”
There are multiple ways to fulfill such a mandate
Maybe Obama will even try a few of the progressive ones
October 15th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
Obama’s SECRET PLAN will force your children to SPEAK MUSLIM!! Beware!!
October 15th, 2008 at 5:38 pm
Re: “Spanish and Muslim will be added as the second and third official languages of the United States.”
I realize this is a quote and probably a satirical one, but “Muslim” as a language? What family does it belong to, what script is it written in and can you buy a Rosetta Stone crash course in learning to speak it?
October 16th, 2008 at 9:23 am
“Obama’s SECRET PLAN will force your children to SPEAK MUSLIM!! Beware!!”
That’s a great post ! I was growing more and more afraid it was serious as I was reading, but then I got to :
“Freeway evangelical megachurches will be converted into food banks, and their parking lots into “tent cities” that will house the homeless. Their members will be required to pratice what they have spent the past 20 years preaching. Except when they go to Vegas, and everything that happens in Vegas will continue to stay in Vegas. And, as evidence of our bipartisanship, a place will be reserved for John McCain at every craps table in town.”
The admission that evangelicals don’t always practice what they preach doesn’t seem wingnutty enough to be authentic.
This however :
“Christmas will be banned and turned into a workday like any other one. Ramadan will become the official religious holiday of the United States.”
Doesn’t Ramadan last a month ? GO OBAMA !
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