Matthew Yglesias » The Expectations Game

Oct 2nd, 2008 at 10:34 pm

The Expectations Game

I think a visitor from Mars watching this debate would have been struck by the fact that Sarah Palin could barely get a paragraph out without mangling what she was trying to say. Conversely, a veteran of the Katie Couric Interviews would be struck by the fact that Palin’s errors weren’t so egregious that you were left totally baffled as to what she was trying to say. But I don’t actually think this stuff is all about expectations. If Palin had some kind of substantial record on or background in national issues, I don’t think anyone would find this performance especially terrifying. But if you already had some serious doubts about her, I think she scarcely put those doubts away.

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30 Responses to “The Expectations Game”

Above the Clouds Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 10:37 pm
When you ain’t got nothin’ you got nothin’ to lose.
LarryM Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 10:37 pm
Bingo. That was my prediction earlier today in two other blog comment sections. She would beat “expectations,” but lose the debate badly because she is incapable of laying to rest the doubts that have developed over the last weeks.
msw Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 10:44 pm
The format did not allow follow up questions, so Palin could state platitudes without fear of challenge. Had Katie Couric not ask follow up questions, not asked for specifics, the CBS interviews would have innocuous.
weichi Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 10:49 pm
What really struck me early on was how *obvious* it was that she was answering questions almost solely by launching into some canned 90 second bit, often not addressing the question at all. Of course this always happens in debates, but usually the candidates are much smoother at making the the segue and then customizing their stock bit enough to make it seem like an answer.

But the main thing is the “folksiness” – Brooks & Sheilds talked about this. It really turned me off, but then I disagree with her political views. I can imagine it might strongly resonate if you already agree with her. No idea how the “undecideds” would react. Definitely *not* “presidential”.
Just Karl Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 10:53 pm
She spouted platitude after platitude. She’s not ready to lead the country should something happen to McCain. She doesn’t understand the current issues, let alone have a plan for the future. Felt to me like she was applying for Sec of Energy, not leader of the free world.

Biden was amazing. He snickered at her, sighed loudly, and even cried. He had free reign to relentlessly hammer home the message of change. She couldn’t refute anything he said. He played with her like a cat. Every once in awhile he’d pull out a broadsword and cut her head off. He won the actual debate handily.
55 Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 10:58 pm
She openly said she wasn’t going to answer questions she doesn’t like.

Imagine doing that on a 1st grade math quiz.
Jon Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:09 pm
When you look at the transcript, I’m pretty sure she managed her own version of Bush’s famous “is our children learning?” So ironic, when the topic is education.

Pesky vowel tenses!
rufustfyrfly Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:32 pm
Agreed, my guess is that people will see in this what they want to see.

If you expected her to be straining to sound marginally competent, that’s what you saw, with her obvious repetition of scripted talking points.

If you wanted to see more than that, you can point to the fact that she generally put words in front of one another in a reasonably coherent manner–a marked step up from her previous performances.
MAX HATS Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:56 pm
Reading the loud proclamations through the conservative blogosphere regarding Palin’s, uh, “clear” victory, it’s dawning on me that this dark era of right wing domination of our politics is truly coming to a close. The disconnect between conservative opinion makers and mainstream America is hard to understate. I won’t say the democrats have seized the populist mantle – far from – but the republicans have lost it. They are the new out of touch elitists. And that populist mantle was their only effective political basis. They’re done. The radicalism of Bush, Gingrich, and Cheney is over. It’s like a weight off my shoulders.
TheGreenMiles Says:
October 2nd, 2008 at 11:57 pm
You’re exactly right, this isn’t some game about beating the media’s lowered expectations. This is about proving you’re ready to be a heartbeat away. She didn’t.
jimBOB Says:
October 3rd, 2008 at 12:13 am
it’s dawning on me that this dark era of right wing domination of our politics is truly coming to a close. The disconnect between conservative opinion makers and mainstream America is hard to understate.

I’ve thought for some time that once Obama takes office that we’ll see the birth of a whole new political world. I don’t think the GOP has any idea of how far out of power they are about to become.

Of course maybe this is just wishful thinking.
Nara Says:
October 3rd, 2008 at 12:16 am
New rule : If you can’t pronounce nuclear, you do not deserve to be on a Presidential or a city council ticket.
jt Says:
October 3rd, 2008 at 1:03 am
I do have to wonder if YouTube makes a difference. The CW seems to have been that not drooling or falling over would have been a “win” for Palin, but lots of people (like me!) will only have watched some clips of this thing after the fact. There are enough shaky moments that fit the Palin-as-knownothing narrative to get e-mailed around.
wiley Says:
October 3rd, 2008 at 1:17 am
Amen, Nara. That “Noo-kyu-lur” sounds like the nuclear nightmare of Bush. Act 2.
Adam Villani Says:
October 3rd, 2008 at 2:14 am
How the hell did she nail Ahmadinejad yet still say nucular?

Also, just to do my own little fact-checking deed, I noticed that Biden said that the VP’s role is outlined in Article I of the Constitution. Actually the Executive Branch is defined in Article II. Article I is the legislature.
fdeblauwe Says:
October 3rd, 2008 at 4:51 am
Have a look at the analysis I performed of the words used by Palin and Biden in tonight’s debate. Just as for the 1st debate, I produced “bubble graphs” showing length and number of words and sentences and “word clouds” displaying which words were used more by each debater. You can find it all at my Word Face-Off blog.
wow gold Says:
October 3rd, 2008 at 5:34 am
You’re exactly right, this isn’t some game about beating the media’s lowered expectations. This is about proving you’re ready to be a heartbeat away. She didn’t.
C. Reaves Says:
October 3rd, 2008 at 8:36 am
Palin can pronounce nuclear – she was clearly coached to say it incorrectly. Before every utterance she paused a beat to get it “right” (i.e. nukular). This, and all her other gee whiz, gosh-darn folksyness is just Huey Long populist banter baloney.

On the other hand a real problem is her desire to expand the power of the office she is running for, Vice President. That’s scary stuff indeed. As Biden pointed out, the Constitution explicitly declares the duties of the Vice President. This unconstitutional expansion of powers is a pretty strange point of view for a right-wing politician who is supposed to favor non-activist judges and strict interpretation of the Constitution.
Kenny B. Says:
October 3rd, 2008 at 9:07 am
Did anybody else totally see her coming on to me? I think she winked at me several times. I think she’s cute and all, but she’s a little too vacuous for me. What do you all think? Should I ask for her number?
Angellight Says:
October 3rd, 2008 at 9:27 am
We should not be fooled by Palin’s Acting abilities to sucessfully weave and bob and her canny ability not to answer questions she does not like in contradiction to her being able to answer intelligently complex questions on the spot! It seems as if she feels the American people have no need to be given intelligent, thoughtful answers to the pressing questions of today, and that we would rather be winked at and called hockey moms and Joe Sixpacks while our economy is in ruins!

Starting to question McCain’s mental fitness

McCain’s interviews have become increasingly angry, hostile and unhinged. He seems to be on the verge of some kind of mental collapse. A big part of McCain’s erratic behavior is due to Obama having gotten deep, deep, deep inside his head. If McCain’s brain was x-rayed, it would reveal Obama sitting comfortably upon McCain’s cerebral peduncles. But, it is more than that. I believe McCain’s increasing instability is being caused by the stress of the campaign and his 72 year old body not being able to get the rest that it requires to function properly. That isn’t ageism—that is a simple fact of life. I wondered how McCain, being in advanced years, would respond under the grueling pace of a general election. I think we are all beginning to find out and it really isn’t a pretty site. He is on the verge of some kind of mental collapse.

http://www.progressivedailybeacon.com/?p=1986
The Pop View Says:
October 3rd, 2008 at 10:11 am
Two things struck me.

The “I’m not going to answer the question you asked, I’m going to give the answer I want to give” thing is an old tradition. But pols are usually much smoother and sophisticated about the pivot. Palin performed it like a middle school debate student.

She let a number of attacks by Biden go unchallenged. One I recall is when he attacked McCain’s “maverick” image. I’m not sure if Palin let these go by because she had no answer or because of inexperience.
Uncle Sam Says:
October 3rd, 2008 at 11:20 am
Talk about rope-a-dope with the emphasis on ‘dope’! Ali was also pretty, but at least he could box!

Better questions should have been asked such as:
if you become president, will you start a draft and escalate both wars and/or presuure other countries that supply insurgents with the threat of military force’?

Is Iran at the top of your list?

If one of your children becomes deathly ill, could you function as commander-in-chief in the time of crisis or an intervention?

Would you put childhood friends in high government positions as you have as governor?

Would you give the go ahead to use nuclear weapons preemptively? (I’m not a speller)

Neither presidential candidate gives the specifics ‘how’, so how can we expect that from our VP candidates? The only thing Biden and Palin are at this point are cheerleaders for their party’s leader. No one can predict how either of the four will react to serious future issues affecting this country, but hopefully any one of them will be more effective than the current lame leadership and that’s lowering the bar by a lot!
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Matt Yglesias

The Expectations Game

30 Responses to “The Expectations Game”

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