The Annals of Prescience
Hey look what some idiot wrote on page 152 of a book called Heads in the Sand (this is me writing about the 2006 midterms from the vantage point of 2007 with emphasis added):
The difference was that the increasing deterioration of the situation in Iraq had turned the war into an albatross around the GOP’s neck, motivating Republicans to attempt their own version of the Democrats’ evasion strategy from 2002. To try to exploit Democratic ambiguity on the issue [i.e., of withdrawing from Iraq], Republicans would need to be willing to talk about it. And as Election Day grew near, the GOP was eager to talk about anything else. On November 3, the New York Times reported that “Republicans seized on a drop in the unemployment rate to assert on Friday that tax cuts were invigorating the economy, highlighting just four days before the election an issue that party strategists are counting on to offset bad news about the war.” In reality, just as Democrats had learned four years earlier, candidates for office don’t get to unilaterally decide what elections are going to be about. Nothing in the ups and downs of the twenty-first century economy — neither its relatively weak condition in 2002 nor its relatively strong condition in 2006, nor the downturn that followed the collapse of the subrpime mortgage market — suffices to trump the drama surrounding questions of war and peace.
Oops!
Thus the perils of book publishing. At the time of writing, I knew that we were in for some economic headwinds. But I had no idea how bad they would be. So instead of just biting the bullet, I chose to guess that the 2008 elections would be conducted amidst some relatively mild economic problems. In fact, they turned out to be quite severe. I made the same point in what turns out to have been a smart way, all the way back in the February 2005 American Prospect:
Re-reading John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira’s popular book, The Emerging Democratic Majority, after the election, I noticed the same thing. The majority was repeatedly prophesied to emerge “when memories of 9-11 fade,” or equivalent formulations. But while memories of the attacks as such are likely to fade (and indeed have to a reasonable extent), the salience of the issue isn’t going anywhere. A study by Democratic pollster Mark Penn has shown that public interest in world affairs reached a low point in the 1990s not seen since the Great Depression. Democrats can hope that it happens again, but hope is not a plan. Besides, history suggests that it will not. The Clinton years were highly unusual; foreign policy has consistently been a prominent element of presidential campaigns since America’s emergence as a major world power in the Spanish-American War, and will probably continue to be for the foreseeable future. The only reliable method of pushing it off the agenda is a 1930s-style economic collapse, but hoping for something like that would be perverse and unrealistic.
Turns out to have been substantially more realistic than I would have guessed.
32 Responses to “The Annals of Prescience”
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October 27th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
Turns out to have been substantially more realistic than I would have guessed.
No less perverse, however.
October 27th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Did you really say “subrpime” in your book?
October 27th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
Re matthew’s comment “Thus the perils of book publishing. At the time of writing, I knew that we were in for some economic headwinds. But I had no idea how bad they would be. So instead of just biting the bullet, I chose to guess that the 2008 elections would be conducted amidst some relatively mild economic problems. ”
—————–
That’s because you don’t read your fucking comments, Harvard Boy.
See, e.g, what I posted in Dec 2006:
http://www.matthewyglesias.com/archives/2006/12/the_sweet_sweet_fed/index.php#039025
Others warned you as well.
So how’s that trust fund going?
October 27th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
nor the downturn that followed the collapse of the subrpime mortgage market
It would have been AWESOME if you misspelled “subprime” in the book. You know, as a shout out to the blog readers!
Alas, I happen to have my copy of Heads in the Sand right here in my office, and consulting page 152, I see that it is, in fact, spelled correctly in the book.
October 27th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
On the substantive point, BTW, I am very curious to see what percentage of voters in 2008 actually still believe that foreign policy is an important issue. In many ways, McCain’s impending loss looks to be about of the same magnitude as Bob Dole’s loss in 1996. In both cases, I think, economy trumped national security in an overwhleming manner, but I’ll be interested to see just how overwhelming it is going to be this year as compared to then – to see just how “highly unusual” the Clinton years were.
October 27th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Ah, yes. That reminds me of a post that Al put up in January of this year:
http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/the_coming_cut.php#comment-1112125
After Matthew had noted “Krugman votes for doom” Sweet Al responded with the usual Republican, Luskinite ad hominem:
“That’s the best news we could possibly have about the economy. Krugman is, after all, about as bad a predictor of the economy as one could be.”
ha ha ha. Anymore deep economic insights, Al?
October 27th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
The guy who has, by far, been the best predictor of this collapse starting two years ago has been Columbia Professor Roubini.
In January 11 of this year, I responded to Matthew’s comment re Krugman’s concern about a possible recession by noting that Krugman was the OPTIMIST.
I cited Roubini’s prediction at that time –which has turned out to be much closer to the ensuing events:
http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/the_coming_cut.php#comment-1112651
I told you so.
(God, that feels good)
October 27th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
In January 2008, I also advised Matthew to make his plans for getting the fuck out of Washington in favor of a survival retreat
http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/the_coming_cut.php#comment-1112413
Instead, he bought a condo. Which has zero options for defense.
Sigh.
“First, the mutant zombie cannibals came for the Gypsies
And I did nothing, for I was not a Gypsie… “
October 27th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
I don’t think that was an ad hominem attack on Krugman. Matthew invoked Krugman’s authority as a predictor of economic events. And it turns out that Krugman is a very bad predictor of economic events. As I pointed out in the post you linked, Krugman has predicted deflation and stagflation over the past few years, neither of which occurred. Predicting a recession isn’t that impressive at all – they happen regularly, as if they occurred as part of some kind of cycle. And, heck, we don’t even know if we have a quarter of negative growth yet this year.
October 27th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
I’m still waiting for the “severe recession” that Roubini has been predicting for ages now. But, hey, I’ll make you a deal – Roubini is now preding that there will be such a panic that the stock markets will have to shut down for a week. If Roubini is right and the stock markets have to shut down for a week because of the upcoming panic, I’ll say that he, and you, were absolutely correct. Until then… uh uh.
October 27th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
I read Matt’s book, and I think he’s still right. The Democrats and progressives need to fight on all fronts. You know the 50 state strategy, well, you gotta have the 50 issue strategy too. You need to be prepared. You don’t know what reality is going to through at you.
Had Iraq taken a dramatically ugly turn, or had we needed our forces in some other part of the world suddenly but couldn’t mobilize because of the surge, Obama wouldn’t have been caught out, because he’s prepared on the full range of issues for over a year now. In addition to helping to win elections, that ain’t bad for governing either.
October 27th, 2008 at 7:37 pm
Re Al’s comment “If Roubini is right and the stock markets have to shut down for a week because of the upcoming panic, I’ll say that he, and you, were absolutely correct. Until then… uh uh.”
————
Fair enough.
I thought about proposing a bet, but I doubt there will be anything left in your shopping cart/hobo’s bundle that will interest me.
October 27th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
God, I hope the Republicans keep Al & co. running things. They won’t win another election until the 22nd century.
October 27th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
Don Williams, here in America we call it a bindle, not a bundle.
October 27th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
keep Al & co. running things
If only!
October 27th, 2008 at 9:08 pm
If only!
Yes, it hasn’t been Al & friends who’ve managed to bring the United States more catastrophes during the past eight years than anyone on earth ever dreamed possible. The people who should be blamed are, uh…
Hey, look over there, a bear!!!!
October 27th, 2008 at 10:00 pm
“in America we call it a bindle”
“We” do no such thing.
October 27th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
Matt Matt Matt,
I wish I posted here earlier so I could pull out a prediction or two from yesteryear like others. I won’t whore my blog here to gloat about how I said over a year ago that the Fed’s policies would be useless…
But I did.
October 27th, 2008 at 10:14 pm
Don Williams,
That time warp link was awesome. You called a number of things there. I’m curious as to your take on the looming specter of deflation (sorry to hijack this post).
October 27th, 2008 at 10:36 pm
Another reason why the economy trumps the Iraq War in voters’ minds is because Iraq has quieted down, due largely to bribes to the Anbar Sunnis and due to the ethnic cleansing of the Sunnis from Baghdad.
At least, the number of American deaths has, which is what most Americans care about.
October 28th, 2008 at 7:53 am
And, heck, we don’t even know if we have a quarter of negative growth yet this year.
~2 trillion dollars less in retirement funds. That’s a start.
October 28th, 2008 at 7:56 am
I’ve always heard it referred to as a “bindle”.
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