Seeing the Future
Note that the election is almost certain to get closer between now and election day. Right now we’re looking at an average of 49.8 percent for Obama and 43.2 percent for McCain. That leaves 7 percent undecided. That’s a very strong position for Obama — he only needs something like 3 percent of the remaining undecideds to break his way in order to get over 50 percent and win the election. That should be easy to do. But since Obama’s already almost at 50, the remaining pool of undecided voters is more conservative than is the general population, so it shouldn’t ultimately be difficult for McCain to get most of them to go his way. Most isn’t enough for McCain to win. Not nearly enough. But it is enough to make the race tighter and perhaps generate a “McCain comeback” media narrative.
27 Responses to “Seeing the Future”
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October 17th, 2008 at 10:20 am
Wouldn’t that be 0.3 percent? I know you like those typos, but this is a number!
October 17th, 2008 at 10:24 am
I fail to see the logic that simply because Obama is near 50% that the remaining undecideds must necessarily be more conservative than the general public.
October 17th, 2008 at 10:27 am
peejay, what matthew is talking about is what percentage of the 7% of undecided voters have to break obama’s way, not the absolute percentage within those 7%.
that said, to follow on Mike T, sometimes elections tighten up and sometimes they open up: in 1980, for example, reagan moved decisively ahead the last week or so.
October 17th, 2008 at 10:36 am
We should fully expect the McCain comeback meme to begin soon in the MSM. The mediots need a close race for ratings.
October 17th, 2008 at 10:42 am
jake, that’s absolutely correct: that’s why so many of the pundits thought mccain won. they wanted a mccain win, not out of mccain sympathy per se (although there’s plenty of that) but because it’s more fun to write and talk about the mccain comeback….
October 17th, 2008 at 10:43 am
that is, jake, thought mccain won the third debate.
October 17th, 2008 at 10:51 am
All very nice, if by “win the election” you mean Obama gets the most popular votes. Check with President Gore on that.
Here are more germaine numbers, current projections of Obama/McCain percentages in swing states, from 538.com (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/):
Colorado: 52.4 / 46.2
Florida: 51.6 / 47.1
Indiana: 48.1 / 49.9
Missouri: 50 / 48.7
North Carolina: 49.8 / 49
New Hampshire: 53.3 / 44.8
New Mexico: 52.5 / 46.2
Nevada: 51 / 47.8
Ohio: 50.7 / 47.7
Pennsylvania: 54.8 / 43.2
Virginia: 53 / 45.9
West Virginia: 49 / 49.1
October 17th, 2008 at 10:55 am
unless of course, say, one of his campaign stunts backfires, or maybe a financial institution collapses, or — who knows? — a hurricane hits …
yeah, i know — like that’ll ever happen.
October 17th, 2008 at 11:01 am
Matt,
While normally a fan I have to disagree with your analysis.
First, 50% doesn’t equate electoral college win.
Second, based on party ID numbers there is no reason to conclude that the 7% of independents left are conservative.
October 17th, 2008 at 11:04 am
I am pretty confident al-Qaeda will intrude as they did in 2004 just before the election. The last thing they want is for the US to stop dumping money down the bottomless pit of occupying middle-eastern/south-asian countries. We’ll see how it plays. Obama has positioned himself well to blame the continued existence of al-Qaeda on our mistaken drive into Iraq. Maybe that will be enough to ward off the Republican chicken little act.
October 17th, 2008 at 11:06 am
But since Obama’s already almost at 50, the remaining pool of undecided voters is more conservative than is the general population, so it shouldn’t ultimately be difficult for McCain to get most of them to go his way.
This would only be true if Obama and McCain were ideologically equidistant from the median voter, a fact, to say the least, not in evidence.
October 17th, 2008 at 11:08 am
To paraphrase Carville, it’s the electoral college, stupid! McCain would probably need to pull ahead by 3% or so in the popular vote just to draw even in the electoral college. Running up the popular vote in Alabama, Utah, Oklahoma, and Wyoming by picking Palin and running the sleazy campaign he has isn’t going to win McCain states like Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia, Florida, and Colorado that he needs to squeak out a victory where it really matters: in the electoral college.
October 17th, 2008 at 11:53 am
I think that the more conservative bias of the remaining undecideds may be offset also by late breakers not wanting to back a loser. If they haven’t decided who to vote for and suspect strongly that Obama will win, they may vote for Obama just because it’ll mean they backed a winner.
October 17th, 2008 at 9:40 pm
This election is going to blow out and the media will have to focus on that whether they like it or not.
The electorate is becoming increasingly comfortable with the idea of President Obama – and that’s all there is left.
Every time he appears calm while McCain appears emotional. Obama appears to be President while McCain appears to be a loser.
November 4th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
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