Matt Yglesias

Oct 15th, 2008 at 11:19 am

Ruth Marcus Signs Up For Neo-Hooverism

225px_herbert_hoover.jpg

As I’ve been documenting, there’s a disturbing plague of neo-Hooverism sweeping through elements of our punditocracy. Perhaps Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman will come along with a blog post explaining why the neo-Hooverite mania is wrong, but for now you’ll have to settle for me and Dean Baker. But the epicenter of the bug appears to be the opinion pages of The Washington Post and the latest victim is columnist Ruth Marcus who’s skeptically hoping that the next president will embrace what she calls “the New Sobriety.”

This kind of analogistic thinking is deadly when it comes to fiscal policy. For an individual, it’s true that high savings rates are virtuous and bring the prospect of greater prosperity in years to come. Thus, it’s seductive to think that public sector budgeting is the same. But it just isn’t the same.

ruthmarcus_1.jpg

When you’re facing a recession, especially a recession wherein monetary policy has little ability to stimulate aggregate demand because the banking system is all seized up (remind you of anything?), you need public policy to stimulate aggregate demand. The recession is caused by overall demand for liquidity getting too high. In those circumstances, it becomes rational for any given individual and any given business to also prefer saving to spending. But that only makes things worse. What’s needed is for the government to break the cycle with deficit spending. Marcus’ alternative theory was tried by Herbert Hoover in the early 1930s and again by Japan in the 1990s and it doesn’t work. What did work a little was the New Deal and then the truly balls-to-the-wall spending of World War II worked much better. Excessive virtue amidst the current crisis will doom us all.

Meanwhile, none of this is to deny that it was a mistake for the Bush administration to run up such huge deficits. The flipside of the need for deficit spending during a recession is that responsible political leadership takes advantage of good economic times to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio. The fact that Bush did the reverse makes us worse positioned to cope with the current crisis than we would be had he behaved more responsibly. But past irresponsibility does not imply that future irresponsibility in the opposite direction becomes a good idea.

Filed under: Economy, Hooverism, Media





590 Responses to “Ruth Marcus Signs Up For Neo-Hooverism”

  1. howard Says:

    to call this an “alternative” theory would be to suggest that it’s a theory at all.

    this isn’t a theory: this is ruth marcus demonstrating she doesn’t know what she’s talking about, which is a different matter altogether.

    as lord keynes told us, we should be roughly in balance over the course of the business cycle, running (as clinton did) surpluses in the good years and deficits in the weak ones. ruth marcus had loads and loads of chances over the past 8 years to denounce bush league economics for missing this point. somehow, she failed to take advantage of the opportunity presented.

    so now, she should please stfu.

  2. superdestroyer Says:

    However, trying to increase demand with public works programs will take too long. Either the projects will be too small to be meaningful or if they are large enough to actually impact the economy, the environmental paperwork such as Environmental Impact Statements will take so long that the recession will be over before real work can begin. Remember, Boulder Dam was constructed before the National Environmental Protection Act

  3. LaFollette Progressive Says:

    The first comment nailed it. There are theories, there are untested hypotheses, and then there are idiots who pay no attention whatsoever to the literature but nonetheless get paid large sums of money to talk out of their asses.

    Let’s not lend any credence to the pretense that the people in the third category traffic in theories, or even untested hypotheses. Ruth Marcus is taking a false theory that was justifiably discarded 75 years ago and presenting it as folk wisdom. There are two appropriate responses to this: tar and feathers.

  4. Rich Says:

    And yet the MSMediots mocked Gore for promulgating the “lock box” idea during the 2000 election. Ugh. Costliest. Election. Ever.

  5. Mike S Says:

    If you’ve got $5mil or $10mil in the bank, and you’re sufficiently pampered and self-centered, the prospect of declining living standards for other people might not seem like such a bad thing. As long as inflation does not threaten your stash, you’re happy. And deflation looks good – you do absolutely nothing while your wealth dramatically increases. Of course there might be lots of homeless wretches to cast a shadow on your good fortune, but that’s why God invented gated communities.

  6. robert aylward Says:

    The WP gets the award for vacuous reporters and columnists. I believe you commented on Balz’ missive on Monday, but I still cannot believe he actually wrote that Obama should be subject to more scrutiny than McCain because Obama is leading in the polls. And Broder, talk about senile. In his column he wrote that the two candidates have refused to set priorities for attacking the economic crisis, even though in one of the debates Obama, in responding to that very question, listed his priorities (McCain refused). And the list goews on, from Gerson to Hiatt, to Mallaby. And that’s not even counting the brilliant former WP reporters who started Politico, the scripture of the banal. And the WP is part of the liberal media?

  7. Don Williams Says:

    Maybe someone could point out to me WHEN the US Government has ever reduced its debt in the last 70 years.

    Answer: Never

    That being the case, there’s only one solution. Pass a Constitution Amendment rescinding the US Constitution, Disestablishing the US Government, and repudiating the National Debt.

    This country could survive perfectly well as 5 or 6 confederacies.

    See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:US_Federal_Debt(gross).JPG — and note that the chart should really be held upside down to correctly show the DEEP hole we are digging ourselves into.

  8. rea Says:

    A rationale pundit might make some kind of argument that even though deficit spending to stimulate the economy is what we need, we can’t afford it due to the fiscal recklessness of Bush and the R’s over the last 8 years. I think that’s a wrongheaded argument–we’ve got to at least try to stave off a depression, and if the whole country goes bust, being a few trillion more in the hole won’t matter. Nevertheless, if Ruth Marcus made that argument, it would at least be possible to have a sensible discusssion with her without having to send her first to an Economics 101 class. But of course, she doesn’t make that argument–she just wants to stimulate deflation during a recession, which would leave us with no change whatever of avoiding catastrophe.

  9. rea Says:

    Maybe someone could point out to me WHEN the US Government has ever reduced its debt in the last 70 years.

    Evidently, you were asleep during the Clinton administration. People like Greenspan back in ‘00 were actually expressing concern that eliminating the national debt would be unhealthy for the economy

  10. Don Williams Says:

    Re rea’s comment “Evidently, you were asleep during the Clinton administration”
    ————–
    Evidently you failed to acquire K12 arithmetic. Although, given your faith in Alan Greenspan, I don’t blame your teachers.

  11. bob mcmanus Says:

    Again, I don’t think Lord Keynes’ original idea was limited to deficit spending. The point was gov’t spending & investment; and redistribution from sectors with high savings/low propensity to consume to sectors with a higher propensity to consume. IOW, a balanced budget based on massive tax increases on the rich to fund the counter-cyclical spending would work.

    Usually Keynesianism is reduced to increasing consumption; but increasing investment was always important. High taxes on the high savings sectors might also change their liquidity preference.

    I don’t know how the focus got changed to “deficit spending.” Since borrowing usually creates savings and since the interest on debt flows toward the top it doesn’t look to me like the best way to go. Tax.

  12. Ethel-To-Tilly Says:

    Maybe someone could point out to me WHEN the US Government has ever reduced its debt in the last 70 years.

    Maybe you could look at the statistical tables that accompany the Annual Economic Report of the President. Specifically table B-78. In the last 68 years (sorry, it only goes back to 1940) it shows debt reduction in fiscal years 1946, 1947, 1951, 1956, 1957 and 1969. Assuming that the figures are nominal and not adjusted for inflation, I would expect the tiny actual increases that occured in the 1990s were actually decreases when inflation is factored in.

  13. howard Says:

    don, i usually ignore these rants of yours, but even by the strictest possible metric – general fund surplus – the last two clinton budgets were there and therefore reduced the national debt.

    what’s confusing you is that the national debt was higher when clinton left office than when he took office, but he had reversed the trendline.

    bob, you’re right: keynes basic idea was that government should be a counterweight and not simply an idea about the benefits of deficit spending during a recession or period of slow growth.

  14. Gene Says:

    I agree with #1, but Yglesias is incorrect about Japan in the 1990s. Actually, the Japanese government tried various types of spending packages, including pointless infrastructure investment, to pump up economic growth. And lowered government lending rates to essentially zero. Didn’t work.

    As to more general point, I certainly agree that the analogy of family budget to national government budget has a lot of wholes. Sort of like equating companies and countries, as many advocates of national industrial policy have done.

  15. CitizenE Says:

    This is an either/or fallacy. As Obama says, an axe where a scalpel is necessary. Some elements of our populace must start paying more taxes, and in doing so, it will not change their effect on the economy otherwise very much. Tax breaks for the wealthy, corporate loopholes, tax breaks for huge profit making industries upon which the populace is dependent must be cut back. Infusions of capital, unfortunately borrowing to do so, must have positive economy wide outcomes, that have long term value to our citizenry. That is, investing in the health of our populace is a better investment than sending money down the sinkhole month after month in Iraq.

  16. gcochran Says:

    A big fraction of the population have been spending more than they’ve earned – mostly by accumulating debt. The trick is to end this – possibly gradually – without materially depressing the general economy.

    Probably there is no way.

  17. rea Says:

    A big fraction of the population have been spending more than they’ve earned – mostly by accumulating debt.

    To elaborate–the housing bubble helped disguise a long-term decline in middle class income, because people were borrowing against, and spending, the illusory increase in the value of their homes. The long-term corrective for this is to reshape our economy so that the middle class gets a bigger share of the pie, and the very richest few a smaller share. It’s not going to be easy, because ever since my youth in the 60’s, the wealthy and their allies have been pushing the country in the opposite direction.

  18. In what respect, Charlie? Says:

    Time for some Neo-Nixonianism: We’re all Keynesians now.

  19. Glaivester Says:

    Keynesian is the most stupid, irresponsible economic philosophy ever devised.

    To argue that we need consumption to stimulate the economy is like arguing that we need to increase strip mining to stimulate the environment.

    What causes recessions is too many half-finished projects from too many investements that we do not have the resources to complete. The only solution is to liquidate enough of the investments so that we can use their resources to complete the investments that are left.

    Remember, the Depression was not ended until World War II. And what happened during World War II? Massive rationing and conservation of resources to shore up the war effort.

    For an individual, it’s true that high savings rates are virtuous and bring the prospect of greater prosperity in years to come. Thus, it’s seductive to think that public sector budgeting is the same. But it just isn’t the same.

    It’s seductive to think that by consuming more, somehow you will magically get more stuff produced.

    When you’re facing a recession, especially a recession wherein monetary policy has little ability to stimulate aggregate demand because the banking system is all seized up (remind you of anything?), you need public policy to stimulate aggregate demand.

    The problem is not “lack of demand.” It is lack of resources to use toward productive ends.

    Time for some Neo-Nixonianism: We’re all Keynesians now.

    I’m an Austrian. A-U-S-T-R-I-A-N. Keynes was a moron.

    But past irresponsibility does not imply that future irresponsibility in the opposite direction becomes a good idea.

    Sure, let’s make the deficit even bigger to stimulate the economy. Prepare for hyperinflation. Do you like $100,000,000,000.00 bread?

  20. rea Says:

    I’m a flat earther. F-L-A-T E-A-R-T-H-E-R. Eratosthenes was a moron . . .

  21. Charles Davis Says:

    I hate to burst the Keynesian bubble at this blog, but contrary to Yglesias’ assertion, Herbert Hoover actually dramatically increased both federal spending and the debt in the early years of the Great Depression. In fact, when FDR ran for president in 1932, he accused Hoover of being a wasteful, profligate spender who had overseen “the greatest spending administration in peacetime in all of history.”

    Meanwhile, in addition to the Federal Reserve slashing interest rates from 1929 to 1930 in an attempt to stimulate the economy with more cheap credit, federal expenditures went from $4.2 billion in 1930 to $5.5 billion in 1931, including hundreds of millions for public works projects and subsidies to industry. At the same time — and contrary to the assertion that Herbert Hoover was some sort of budget hawk overly concerned with the national debt — the government went from having a budget surplus in 1930 to having a $2.2 billion deficit in 1931, with Hoover also drastically increasing taxes.

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