Oct 31st, 2008 at 1:13 pm
One to Watch
The Franken-Coleman race in Minnesota should have us all on the edge of our seats not only because the polling is so close but because the public polling shows such a large third-party vote. Over ten percent of Minnesotans (and in some surveys closer to twenty) are currently telling pollsters they’ll vote for Barkley, but the historical pattern is for third party voters to fade away at the last minute once it becomes clear that their man is stuck hopelessly in third. Will that happen? If it does, which way will his supporters break?
50 Responses to “One to Watch”
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October 31st, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Seems to me people who are favoring a third-party candidate must be pretty unhappy with the incumbent ? I’d guess 30% stay home, but the rest split 2:1 for the challenger. That would give Franken another 15% x 0.7 x 0.33 = 3.4% margin.
Coleman might still scrape through, but the odds favor Franken. Good, he’ll make the Senate a bit less dull.
October 31st, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Franken, as the comment above discusses.
October 31st, 2008 at 1:23 pm
MN is a little different. Barkley is a known quantity and was able to get enough of the senate vote in the pre-Ventura election to get the Independence party Major Party status in MN. Granted that was only like 5%, but his name recognition was pretty low then. I’d bet it’s now as high as either Franken or Coleman. He may even out perform.
October 31st, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Another argument for second preference, instant run-off voting. If there was second preference voting in place for Congress, then strong third party candidates could cast their first preference, hoping to see their candidate get into the run off, and also their preference among the two-party candidates.
And pollsters in that context would ask decided voters their second preference.
Having lived in Australia for a decade, I think Americans would rebel at the full preference voting system … but a second ballot line for your second preference in House and Senate races gets most of the benefit with a much less wrenching change.
October 31st, 2008 at 1:26 pm
If VA is called for Obama at 7:05 EDT, I think McCain/Barkly voters will stay home at a higher rate than Obama/Barkly voters.
October 31st, 2008 at 1:26 pm
You said its Minnesota, and they more than any other state seems to have strong turnout for third party, right to the end. I think it’ll be more likely that his voters actually vote for him in the end, if not they’ll go for Stuart Smally. Why? cause he’s good enough, he’s smart enough, and gosh darn it. People like him.
October 31st, 2008 at 1:37 pm
As I recall the polls suggest the 3rd party candidate is drawing more Ds than Rs, more pro-choice votes than pro-life, etc. I think we can expect these voters to come home to Franken.
October 31st, 2008 at 1:37 pm
If VA is called for Obama at 7:05 EDT
What’s the status of Doug Wilder’s attempt to get the Federal courts to order VA to keep the polls open until 10:00 to accomodate high voter turnout?
October 31st, 2008 at 1:38 pm
Should add the hearing was scheduled for Thursday, haven’t seen a news story on how it went.
October 31st, 2008 at 1:39 pm
I live in Minnesota and am voting for Barkley. If he wasn’t on the ballot, I’d vote for the Libertarian Party candidate. If it was only Franken and Coleman, I’d write myself in.
October 31st, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Since it’s Minnesota, I wouldn’t count on that Barkley voters going somewhere else. This is a state who voted for Jesse Ventura after all.
October 31st, 2008 at 1:51 pm
Is it wrong to cheer on Franken simply because I’d love to see a display of numerous, massive, simultaneous bursting aneurysms across the entire spectrum of GOP supporting media, spanning from hard right to far right to really, really far right?
October 31st, 2008 at 1:53 pm
From the issues section on Dean Barkley’s web site, he supports withdrawing from Iraq, opening Medicare to all, equality for GBLT people, renewable energy, immigration reform, ending the war on drugs, and neo-Hooverism as a general approach to economic policy. It seems to me that this is another price we pay for the failure to have beaten down the Hooverite horse: Dean Barkley’s positions are pretty obviously those of a fairly liberal Democrat, except he’s convinced that increasing the national debt (in absolute terms, not relative to GDP) is a huge problem, that SS poses huge future problems, and we should freeze the current level of spending for four years. Looking at his platform, its hard to see why you would think holding these positions – other than Hooverism – would make you anything but a Democrat. But the Hooverism makes all the difference. If only Paul Krugman’s babysitting story could be somehow be more widely disseminated …
October 31st, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Minnesotans have a quirky affection for third party candidates – see Ventura, Jesse. An Independence Party candidate whose name escapes me also did reasonably well in the 2006 gubernatorial election.
I’ve spent a few shifts knocking on doors in Minneapolis, ostensibly for the Obama campaign but also to drum up support for the downticket races. I met quite a lot of straight ticket DFL voters, a small number of Obama/Barkley voters, and virtually no one who was enthused about Franken – and this in very liberal districts of a very liberal city. Coleman, meanwhile, isn’t loved but isn’t really hated by the majority of Minnesotans, and the prospect of an Obama administration might make Coleman more amenable to left-leaning voters.
Based on that totally unscientific evidence I’m thinking Barkely will siphon off 10% with most of that coming from Franken. I’ll be surprised if Franken pulls it off.
October 31st, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Anyone strongly considering voting for an Independent is not a big fan of incumbents . . . especially a Republican in this political environment.
October 31st, 2008 at 2:11 pm
I would be very surprised if Barkley’s vote drops below 10%. The Independence Party vote just doesn’t magically disappear at the last minute here, at least not to the degree some bloggers seem to be anticipating.
October 31st, 2008 at 2:13 pm
People keep mentioning Ventura, but he was more of a celeb candidate. Barkley got 5% of the Senate vote before Ventura ran for gov. He paved the way for Ventura’s win. Ventura also appointed Barkley to finish Wellstone’s term. Barkley is a known quantity in MN.
October 31st, 2008 at 2:25 pm
I don’t know anything about Minnesota politics, but according to Wikipedia, Dean Barkley’s résumé includes volunteered for George McGovern in 1976, consulted for Arianna Huffington in 2003, was asked by Democrats to run against a Republican incumbent and has the endorsement of a former Democratic Congressman. Given all that, I think it’s very likely that he has more support from the left than from the right. (Or he takes more votes from the Democrat than the Republican, depending on how you look at it.)
October 31st, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Did Barkley lose the Democratic nomination to Franken or something? Or he really wanted to run as an independent?
I guess Barkley is the Nader of Minnesota.
October 31st, 2008 at 2:46 pm
No, Barkley didn’t compete in the Dem nom process.
If he was polling at 30% I’d vote for him in a flash. I know you all love Franken, I enjoy him, but it was a mistake to nominate him. A generic Dem would be up 55-45 against Coleman.
I’ll vote for Franken since I agree with him on the issues and it will be a vote against Mayor Quimby, but boy did we make this harder than it needed to be.
October 31st, 2008 at 2:51 pm
It is unfortunate that Franken has turned out to be a less than great campaigner. We DFLers in Minnesota (that’s Dems to the other 49 states) have a history of picking semi-crappy candidates to put up against really crappy Republicans.
I think Norm Coleman has a very poor reputation among all in this state but committed Republicans. I’m not active enough in local politics to know who the DFL “should” have put forward, but Franken has proved to have about as high negatives as an unpopular incumbent…quite a feat!
It saddens me to think that the seat once held by Paul Wellstone might return the slippery, self-aggrandizing Coleman to a second term. 4 years ago he (per the Star Tribune) “brought shame” upon the state for his role in “truth squadding” the DNC in Boston. This year they bought his reformed-bipartisan schtick hook-line-sinker. Yikes.
I’ve considered voting Barkley just to say to my own party “stop putting bozos on the ticket!”
October 31st, 2008 at 2:56 pm
Tim: “I guess Barkley is the Nader of Minnesota.” Nope.
He’s the Independence Party candidate. He has already been a Senator (for the few days between Wellstone’s death and the Jan inauguration of Norm. He was appointed by our then Independence Party Gov. Jesse the Body/Boa Ventura.
his policies are not all that wacko–more libertarian than anything else, from the bit I’ve looked into him.
As with Phil, I’ll most likely vote Franken. But not with enthusiasm.
October 31st, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Barkley makes the race an interesting echo of the Humphrey/Coleman/Ventura race, though he’s no Jesse (sanity-wise a good thing, electability-wise bad for him). He’s a decent guy in an ugly campaign.
In my neck of the woods (St. Paul), enthusiasm has been much greater for Franken than pundits have credited. And Coleman doesn’t seem to draw much enthusiasm from anyone, including Republicans.
The big wrench is the breaking story of money being channeled to Coleman’s wife, allegations coming from a Texas Republican business partner of Coleman’s top crony. He’s a breathtakingly cynical pol and it looks like his number has finally come up.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:02 pm
“It saddens me to think that the seat once held by Paul Wellstone might return the slippery, self-aggrandizing Coleman to a second term … I’ve considered voting Barkley just to say to my own party “stop putting bozos on the ticket!”
Stupidest. Commenter. Ever.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:18 pm
At the Franken/Obama rally last night keynoted by Bill Clinton the biggest applause/boo lines during the warmup speeches were all about Michelle Bachmann and her likely defeat by El Tinklenberg.
I think the spirit of getting rid of evil republicans sparked by Bachmann may carry an extra point or two in Al’s direction.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:27 pm
This race most resembles the 2002 governor’s race. The results were: Pawlenty (r) 44, Moe (d) 36, Penny (i) 16.
Since Penny was a former Dem, I’d say something like 8 percent of his votes were Dems. In this senate race, its hard to tell what’s going on — but I would say Franken is taking the Dem vote, Coleman taking most of the republican vote, and a collection of independents and republicans voting for Barkely — just the opposite of 2002 guv race. So, if Barkely can take enough po’d repubs, Franken will win with the Dem vote and Obama coat tails. If all things hold as they are in the news, I see Franken winning thinly because of demoralized republicans and an energized and high turnout democratic base.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:33 pm
the sad thing is Colman’s sleazy personal life is not public knowledge and all the conventional Minnesotians think Colman is just like them, while they have been made very aware of Frankin’s wrtings for SNL etc which they accept is “pornography”. It’s a classic case of the efectiveness of Rove style campaigning.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:40 pm
As a Minneapolitan, I think this one is going to be interesting. Barkley will not take more votes from Franken than Coleman, certainly not as many as Penny took from Roger Moe in the ‘02 governor’s race. Franken has done a better job of consolidating Democrats than Moe did in ‘02.
It’s a tossup for sure, but if I were a betting man I’d say that Obama’s turnout will be higher than expected, and it will carry Franken along with it. It feels like an Obama tidal wave here, and a lot of moderate Republicans have been getting on board (like former GOP governor Arne Carlson).
Obama +15, and Franken +3 — that’s my prediction for MN.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:56 pm
the sad thing is Colman’s sleazy personal life is not public knowledge
Really? I thought it was basically an open secret in MN, and that it was just somehow impolite to splash it over the papers.
October 31st, 2008 at 4:07 pm
“but the historical pattern is for third party voters to fade away at the last minute once it becomes clear that their man is stuck hopelessly in third.”
Not necessarily true, at least when it comes to MN Governors. Ventura was polling a few points higher than Barkley is right now, and he ended up winning.
October 31st, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Since Penny was a former Dem, I’d say something like 8 percent of his votes were Dems.
Penny has since endorsed McCain for president. Watch his old district (the 1st, now represented by Dem Tim Walz) go for Obama by 5-10 points anyway.
November 1st, 2008 at 5:48 am
I voted for Franken because I hate Coleman with an abiding passion and have some disagreements with the Independence Party of MN. I had to think about it long and hard as I stared at that absentee ballot.
It’s clear MY knows little about Minnesota politics and cares less. I’m not surprised: That’s how I feel about Al Franken. But to those who say nominate someone better, who?
We have good solid democratic technocrats in this state and except for maybe Ryback they are all as exciting as watching paint dry. We just don’t breed exciting politicians very often here.
November 27th, 2008 at 8:02 am
By definition, projection is revealing of what lurks in a person’s heart and mind. Arianna Huffington projected tonight, and what she revealed wasn’t pretty. So much so, that even her liberal host hastened to diassociate
December 12th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
The state Canvassing Board today directed that a recount begin tomorrow in the U.S. Senate race between Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and DFLer Al Franken, even as the board considers a last-minute request from the Franken
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