Obama and the Jews
Ethan Porter has an interesting piece on “Why the Jews finally came home to Obama.”
When thinking about this kind of issue, though, it’s worth recalling that what normally happens in elections is that people vote the way they normally vote. Nobody’s surprised to see Barack Obama getting a huge share of the black vote, and Bill Clinton was always wildly popular in the African-American community, but of course black voters also overwhelmingly pulled the lever for John Kerry. But at one point in the spring and summer of 2004, it was thought that Kerry might have trouble motivating black voters for various reasons. That’s not to say that the worrying was useless or unnecessary, but it is to say that research shows that the main thing that campaigns do is “remind” partisans of the reasons that they’re partisans and bring them around to voting for the party that they always vote for. Thus, when we started this general election cycle there were certain traditional Democratic demographic groups (Jews, Hispanics) that seemed skeptical of Obama, while McCain was a widely popular “maverick” views skeptically by conservatives. But over the course of the campaign, Jews and Hispanics came to like Obama, conservatives came to like McCain, and both candidates saw their cross-partisan appeal fade. Campaigns are important because if you didn’t actually do the campaigning this stuff might not happen and then you’d be in a world of pain. But it shouldn’t come as shocking to anyone that a presidential campaign was able to bring its party’s traditional voters along.
31 Responses to “Obama and the Jews”
Register
RSSLogin
Topic Cloud
ArchivesBlog RollAbout Matt YglesiasContact Me
Donate
October 31st, 2008 at 2:02 pm
i was surprised ethan porter did not mention the youtube video showing that preacher laying hands on palin just after he had been railing agains the ‘israelites’ who have a monopoly on the banking system and are responsible for all of the corruption.
and then he said that real christians should take the jobs and wealth of the ‘israelites’, because that would end the corruption.
and palin gushed over what a great guy he is.
oddly enough, this had an effect on how i viewed palin.
October 31st, 2008 at 2:34 pm
So has Joe Lieberman endorsed Obama yet?
How about William Kristol?
Haim Saban?
Charles Krauthammer?
Sheldon Adelson?
The Israel Lobby’s influence has never been based upon it being the voice of America’s Jews — it’s not. Its extremism is probably supported by no more than what?? 10 percent? 20 percent maybe? Assuming those Jews even know what’s going on — unlikely given how the NY Times colludes with Fox News to pull the wool over their eyes.
The Lobby’s power is based upon the wealth of a few egotistical billionaires and their whores in the news media. That included some non-Jewish billionaries like Rupert Murdoch
and Conrad Black –although Mr Black’s current fate seems like something out of the Old Testament.
October 31st, 2008 at 2:41 pm
So Matt, if people vote the way they always vote, are you saying that Obama’s advantage in the polls this year is due to an unprecedented number of people in the last four years converting to Judaism?
October 31st, 2008 at 3:00 pm
Qjk,
There are some people who don’t fit into catagories that vote in a predictable manner. White, secular, Christians probably don’t break 70/30 for either party. I think 2006 saw them shift from leaning R to leaning D.
Even more important is geting out the vote. There was a 20% jump in turnout from 2000 to 2004. It just happened to be about the same for each party.
October 31st, 2008 at 3:15 pm
This video, sent to me by a fellow Jewish DTC member, sort of summed up where most of the Jews I know stand on Obama:
http://www.youtube.com/v/K2VFRt5W4FM&color1=0xb1b1b1&colormmia2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&fs=1
October 31st, 2008 at 3:49 pm
swordsmith–
yowza–that is one powerful video. brought tears to my eyes.
(though, a linguistic question: a woman in the video says “it’s chutzpah to say that obama does not support israel”, meaning clearly something like ‘it’s outrageous; it’s so manifestly false as to be indecent’.
that strikes me as not consistent with the american sense of ‘chutzpah’, which would mean more like ‘nervy’, but with overtones of admiration. is this a difference between usage in israel and in the u.s.?)
October 31st, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Qjk,
If I recall there are nearly 1% fewer white voters every year. Basically, Republicans made themselves the party of only married white Christians, and while there used to be more than 50% of the country in that category there aren’t anymore.
October 31st, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Fewer Republicans this year, too.
October 31st, 2008 at 5:06 pm
It’s real simple – the only folks who haven’t figured it out yet are some White people. Black people are voting for Obama; Latinos, Asians and now the Jewish folks, too. Haven’t seen any numbers on Native populations, but I’ll bet they’re not in the McCain-Palin camp.
The smart White people have come on board – what’s holding up the rest?
October 31st, 2008 at 6:38 pm
Kid Bitzer – I’ve heard it used both ways. Sometimes with admiration, sometimes just with annoyance.
October 31st, 2008 at 6:47 pm
that research shows that the main thing that campaigns do is “remind” partisans of the reasons that they’re partisans and bring them around to voting for the party that they always vote for.
You’re missing the fact that the differences matter. If Kerry got 85% of the black vote and Obama gets 95%, they’d both get an overwhelming majority of the demographic. But that alone translates into a 3-4 point swing in the polls (enough to have elected Kerry in 2004).
Turnout is a second factor: many people don’t always vote for the party because many voting age citizens don’t vote at all. Increasing those numbers, even by a little, bit can swing an election.
This is true for every demographic you care to mention.
October 31st, 2008 at 6:51 pm
THANKS Matt for pointing out something about African-Americans that I don’t think gets mentioned enough. I think some of the far-right folks might need to spend more time around black people if they solely think that Obama’s appeal to us is race-only. Ex: Colin Powell. Their own missteps w/ many minority voters probably got them in their current spot.
Clinton was certainly popular with most AAs, and when you compare those 8 years to 00-’08 with Bush….basically any Dem that could credibly link McCain to W. the 2nd would gain traction.
White and non-white Dems have and probably will continue to have the lion’s share of black votes, probably. Obama’s inspirational and personal history definitely resonates beyond that though of previous candidates in the Pres race for AAs.
November 1st, 2008 at 3:35 am
Campaigns are important because if you didn’t actually do the campaigning this stuff might not happen and then you’d be in a world of pain.
I disagree – campaigning consists mostly of telling different groups what they want to hear, which leads candidates to make inconsistent and even contradictory statements. A long also campaign cheapens political discourse, because you’re constantly up against simplifications by your opponent and the media. I much prefer the UK model: the PM announces the election when he/she deems it convenient and after 3 weeks it’s over.
November 1st, 2008 at 6:24 pm
really? so 3 weeks would have given the country the right sense of Obama? or palin? or enough time to see McCain be a different candidate each month? that system can’t work with ours because in the UK, 3 weeks gets you a government UNTIL the people lose confidence in it. Here, an election gets you the White House for 4 years even if your approval drops to 22%.
March 11th, 2009 at 4:23 am
Incredible site!
March 12th, 2009 at 11:03 pm
Great site. Good info
March 17th, 2009 at 2:21 am
I want to say – thank you for this!
tramadol
March 22nd, 2009 at 6:02 am
tramadol
It is the coolest site,keep so!
March 22nd, 2009 at 10:21 am
buy viagra online
Very interesting site. Hope it will always be alive!
April 2nd, 2009 at 5:03 am
Very interesting site. Hope it will always be alive!
buy cheap viagra
April 3rd, 2009 at 4:03 am
Excellent site. It was pleasant to me.
cheap brand pfizer viagra
April 9th, 2009 at 5:09 am
If you have to do it, you might as well do it right viagra