No Sleep ‘Till West Virginia
Sarah Palin going on a bus tour to West Virginia is a puzzling move. Obviously, if West Virginia is in play, then the McCain-Palin ticket is doomed. There’s no point in focusing on the states that are actually close at the moment, you need to focus on the states that would be close if the election were close and then hope that events and your national media strategy can make the election close. And if you are going to play defense in non-battleground states, you may as well go places (Georgia, Kentucky) where you could be lending a hand to a possibly endangered Senate candidate. I’m trying to come up for a theory as to how this represents Palin pre-positioning herself for the 2012 primaries but that doesn’t really add up, either. Maybe she wants to take a bus tour of Iowa? Hint that she loves John McCain but disagrees with him about ethanol?
52 Responses to “No Sleep ‘Till West Virginia”
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October 10th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
I am not sure that heading to WV is such a bad idea for McCain/Palin. She will get a lot of press in parts of VA, OH, and PA that they desperately need. I am guessing the crowds will be quite large and enthusiastic and this may play well on the local media.
October 10th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
Some random WVa thoughts:
From 1932-1996, this was by far the most Dem Presidential state – Stevenson won twice, Carter in 1980 (one of 6 states), Dukakis in 1988.
With the economy strong in 2000 and the fear factor in 2004, the GOP exploited the cultural issues.
If Gore or Kerry were the nominee this year, either would likely win. Clinton would have won in a landslide.
On a state level, it is strongly Dem in officeholders and registration.
It has a lot of union strength.
Obviously we know there are issues here – but Obama coming on strong, though a pleasant surprise, should not be a shock.
October 10th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
You pointy headed elites don’t understand that Sarah is visiting the good, earthy people of West Virginia simply because she wants to be there! Because it is a good and earthy place, devoid of east coast pundits and media elites!
Christ, you liberal cynics think everything is about politics, don’t you? You will never understand the patriotism of a good old fashioned bus tour.
October 10th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
What Dan C said. Lots of W Va is in TV markets that cross state lines, into Ohio, Va, and Pa.
October 10th, 2008 at 5:43 pm
Uh-oh,
I don’t want to rag on the fine working class people of West Virginia, but the stats don’t lie: no state was as hostile to Barack Obama and his “otherness” in the primary than WVa. Given the bellicose nature of Palin’s speeches and the rowdiness of recent crowds, this could get very ugly.
It makes me wonder if the campaign secretly welcomes the nastiness. As it becomes publicized, perhaps those harboring such views will be more brazen and pick them up themselves and pass them on to low-info undecideds.
I just hope West Virginians don’t fall for the rhetoric like some others at recent Palin/McCain rallies.
October 10th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
My sense is that the McCain campaign isn’t entirely sure what to do with Palin. They tried to get her up to speed on national and international issues and to gradually let the national media get access to her but the Gibson and Couric interviews did not go well for them. Now her generic role is to act as attack dog/base rallier and this fits with the new “angry mob” theme of the McCain campaign. Despite this, they are probably loath to put her before voters in important states lest she say something really stupid and embarassing.
All together, the McCain and his campaign has screwed up on so many levels: on the Palin pick, on developing a stronger ground game, and probably most importantly on the economy, it’s too late to walk back any of these and so they’re flailing.
October 10th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
Slightly off topic, but I continue to be surprised at the “McCain doesn’t support ethanol” reasoning for losing in Iowa. Ethanol is certainly an economic factor in our state, but I don’t think it’s as important of a political issue as people seem to believe. I’ve yet to hear a single Iowan mention ethanol in reference to the presidential race, let alone cite it as a factor in their decision-making (obviously I don’t talk to everyone in Iowa, but I do speak to a lot of people in rural parts of the state as well as various cities). I’m not sure if this stems from a characterization of Iowans as “farmers”, but if it is, people need to realize that corporations control most of the agriculture in this country. Actual citizen-farmers make up a very small percentage of Iowa’s electorate. McCain will lose Iowa badly, but not because of ethanol. The sooner Democrats realize this the better chance they have to keep the state blue. I think this is important because similar reasoning plays a role in Minnesota and Wisconsin’s “purpleness.”
October 10th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
Alex B nails it.
October 10th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
“If Gore or Kerry were the nominee this year, either would likely win. Clinton would have won in a landslide.”
…. but would any of them have organized and led a campaign as good as this? I doubt it. I think the race would be closer and more nail-biting with any of the other candidates.
Obama seems literally to have been running for President all his life. He says he’s been doing it for two years, and he looks to be getting better all the time, growing in confidence and stature. From the outside, the whole effort seems to have gone on effortlessly and smoothly like a well-oiled machine.
Kerry and Gore had their own problems with the GOP smear machine, and Hilary Clinton would have had as well. Would any of them have come as well out of the economic crisis as Obama? We do not really know.
October 10th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
Obviously, McCain has been spooked by the fact that Chuck Baldwin actually made ballot access in West Virginia, giving conservatives who are unhappy with McCain an alternative.
October 10th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
My comments about Gore, Kerry and Clinton were specifically about carring WV this year, although I believe all three of them also would have beaten McCain nationally.
October 10th, 2008 at 6:15 pm
Why the hell would a Pittsburgh or Cincinnati tv station send a local news crew to somewhere in West Virginia to cover a Sarah Palin rally? If you want free media in PA or OH, go to those two states. I think she’s trying to get a reaction, to try to keep this ridiculous Ayres smear in the press. At a certain point, she’ll devolve to speaking to White Citizens Council meetings.
Also, she will get booed like Scott Stevens, Frank Olivo (f/k/a Santa Claus), and Michael Irvin combined when she drops the puck at the Flyers game tomorrow. It’ll be awesome. (Especially as every Flyer fan will see this as a way to annoy Ed Snider.)
October 10th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
I would suggest a visit to electoral-vote.com. After some very recent polls in WV they now show it leaning to Obama. They even show McCain support weakening in Georgua and Texas, though he’s still fairly ahead in both those states.
October 10th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
“No Sleep ’til West Virginia” and “No Sleep Till West Virginia” would both be acceptable titles. “No Sleep ‘Till West Virginia” isn’t.
October 10th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
I think they’ve both gone hard wingnut and are playing hard defense not in any attempt to win the election, but to 1) pay their bills and 2) maintain the republican kernel.
October 10th, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Well a recent ARG poll had Obama ahead by 8 points in WV. Do I think Obama is ahead by 8 points? No. Is he ahead? Probably not, but the race is obviously closer than we originally thought it would be.
October 10th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Sarah Palin has stated her opposition to the McCain campaign dropping out of Michigan. Maybe she’s throwing some weight around and campaigning where she wants to. With the wheels coming off the bus you might as well let her have her head.
October 10th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
Hate On Obama Bus Tour …
They don’t care about W. Va’s electoral votes so much as they are eager to foment the hate and make that THE story. I’m almost surprised they don’t head to South Carolina or Alabama and really whip things up.
As a professional, I hand it to Steve Schmidt, again. Despite this horrific week in the market, the story of the campaign is gradually turning toward their favored territory — Is Obama Scary?
Dems and Obamaniacs need to channel whatever outrage into straight-up ridicule, derision and mockery. Just laugh at it. The outrage just plays into their hands.
October 10th, 2008 at 7:17 pm
Maybe she’s throwing some weight around and campaigning where she wants to.
IMO, I don’t think Gov. Palin has any weight to throw in the campaign, beyond sending a staffer out for a coffee run.
October 10th, 2008 at 8:02 pm
I just don’t see a 2012 Palin candidacy under any scenario – which I guess doesn’t mean that she doesn’t see it. She was an add-on to an established campaign with a 28-year political veteran who had a whole campaign infrastructure built around him. How in God’s name could she build a national campaign on her own? How in God’s name could she get through 20 Republican debates?
October 10th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
@MAX HATS: the third (possibly most important) motivation is to delegitimize the forthcoming Democratic administration.
@bobbo: Governor Palin perfectly represents the Republican base. Come 21 January, the Party “leadership” is hers by default: who else is narcissistic enough to want it and ruthless enough to seize it from her? The campaign will not stop; it will not even pause. Palin will act as if she were a shadow President. By any objective measure the Party will have shrunk, but it will punch way above its weight, because the endless campaign-style rallies based upon overt incitement will be “news” and no one will have the courage to shut them down.
October 10th, 2008 at 8:28 pm
Yeah, it is hard to see West Virginia going for Obama if PA, OH, and VA haven’t already, in which case McCain is already toast.
So the logical conclusion is that this is about Palin. And I think the worse the blowout in 2008, the worse for Palin in 2012, so I do think it is in her interest to try to hold at least a few states (and get credit for doing so if possible).
October 10th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
My guess is that sending Palin to WV is designed to head off a potential Obama visit. The kind of people who get frothed up by Palin — let’s be frank here, she embodies the right-wing id — are enough to make the Obama campaign wary of heading there.
October 10th, 2008 at 8:37 pm
They’ve decided they’ve already lost, they’re laying groundwork for 2012 and beyond. That’s why Palin’s speeches are to invited audiences, and intended only for the rabid base. She’s being test-marketed.
October 10th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
I just don’t see a 2012 Palin candidacy under any scenario – which I guess doesn’t mean that she doesn’t see it.
She’s automatically in the mix since she has the Religious Right as base. She’ll finish off her term in office, make 2 or 3 big, meaningless political gestures to keep her name out of the trivia games, and then campaign for 2 years. She’d been picked out by Kristol 2 years ago and so she’s been living with the idea of herself as president and obviously likes it.
October 10th, 2008 at 8:53 pm
Re: Yeah, it is hard to see West Virginia going for Obama if PA, OH, and VA haven’t already, in which case McCain is already toast.
Ohio is still very much a toss-up, but Pennsylvania appears to be solid for Obama now, and Virginia has been leaning his way for the last couple of weeks.
And why should West Viriginia be such an impossibility? as others have posted, it ha a strong state party and has Democratic in the not-too-distant past. I don’t think the race thing is such a big deal either. The state isn’t Alabama; it never had many Blacks and consequentally lacks the sort of toxic history that the Old South has. Sure, there’s probably tons of prejudiced whites in the state, but that’ true everywhere and there’s also lots of poor whites (and a fair number of union members).
October 10th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
Nah, you are completely missing the unpublished codicil to the constitution which states that the winner of the Presidential election shall be decided by the candidate who gets either a north-south line of states or an east-west line.
West Virginia would put Obama in an almost unassailable position.
October 10th, 2008 at 9:47 pm
Nate Silver has WV as a toss-up right now….
October 10th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
JonF,
To clarify, I wasn’t saying Obama couldn’t win West Virginia. I was saying if Obama wins West Virginia, he has almost surely won PA, OH, and VA too, in which case he has almost surely won the entire election. So strategically there would seem to be little point in McCain playing defense in West Virginia, because the outcome in that state is highly unlikely to decide the election.
But again, I think there is someone with a possible interest in at least keeping the margin of a hypothetical loss low, namely Palin.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:51 pm
The key is that they can only put her in states where she won’t get asked pointed questions by voters. They can’t have a repeat of the South Philly nightmare.
WV seems the perfect choice to me.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
The McCain campaign, or at least the Palin contingent, is now in the Flying Dutchman phase of a losing campaign. You go where you can get big and enthusiastic crowds to make good local television coverage, even though the appearances, the speeches, the locations will have no effect on the final outcome. What else are they supposed to do? Go to Los Vegas and Party? Sit around their hotels and mope? Go back to Alaska and clean the gutters on the house before the snow comes? The campaign becomes a traveling bubble of false cheer, desperate bravado, gallows humor and deferred despair. West Virginia is as good a place as any.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:33 pm
My guess is that the McCain folks were looking for someplace to hide Palin until any hub-bub about the ethics report dies down. What better place to hide from the rest of the nation than West Virgina.
Also, emptywheel thinks that McCain’s decision to defend Obama this afternoon was all about distracting from the ethics report. Pretty cynical. I concur
October 11th, 2008 at 12:11 am
I don’t see the efficiency there. If she wants to get media in a state, she should go to the state. It’s not like West Virginia is a media powerhouse. I am pretty familiar with West-Central Ohio, and they never talk about West Virginia on the local news there – it’s too far away. Ohio is a big state. Pennsylvania is an even bigger state.
The article says
She may get (a piece of) Pa and (South Eastern) Ohio, but she won’t get any of Virginia (not close to there, and there are mountains in the way). I just don’t see it.
October 11th, 2008 at 12:46 am
The use of Plain speaks to Republican ineptitude. She could have appealed to older less-educated white Hillary women via a soft-focus campiagn on Oprah and The View instead she has become a sexualised attack dog that plays to play to male Republican fantasisises and alienates female voters.
October 11th, 2008 at 12:53 am
It makes no real electoral sense for Palin to be in WV. But then it makes no strategic sense for McCain to have wasted the day (he only does one rally daily) in MN, as well as recent WI and IA stopovers. Polls show these three to be all but out of reach now for McPalin, and even if they’re not, it makes better sense for the GOP to be scheduling appearances in FL (as many electoral votes as IA, MN and WI combined!), CO, GA, NC and VA, all bigger states with closer margins. It’s starting to look like the John McCain Nostalgia and Farewell Tour.
October 11th, 2008 at 6:17 am
I think people are way overplaying this.
It’s not even a full day in WV. She ends it in OH. There are how many days left in the campaign? Taking 3/4 of a day to at least attempt to shore up a state where the McCain numbers are tanking isn’t a bad idea.
I agree with Matt’s premise that she should be sent to GA and KY… *eventually*. The numbers in KY and GA are trending downward for the McCain camp, but they haven’t tanked yet like WV.
Strategically, put in a quick weekend whistle stop tour to try to stop the bleeding and turn it around. I don’t have a great deal of confidence it will work, but it’s worth a try.
I suspect that next week/weekend we’ll see her in GA (if it’s numbers worsen) and KY to try to help McConnell. And probably some other places where they think she might keep the base enthused.
Is any of it going to work? Not much, other than perhaps saving some congressional and senate seats. Things look as bleak for the McCain campaign as they do for the economy.
John
October 11th, 2008 at 8:14 am
She’s fundraising. I don’t know why she’s fundraising, but I just protested one of her fundraisers.
Also, if you look at the campaign’s schedule for the past week, they’re inept. It’s not a good campaign, so many of their decisions are bad decisions.
October 11th, 2008 at 10:14 am
I’ve had WV in the Obama column since April, and have said this repeatedly on posts on other blogs, particularly The Carpetbagger Report — when that existed. (Even offered to bet on it.)
My argument is based on their Congressional record — and ‘hopeless pedant’ understates it. I am 62 years old. WV hasn’t voted for a Republican Senator in my lifetime. (The last was Zane Eccles in 1942.) The last time they voted for a majority of Republican Representatives, i was 5 months old. Since 1968 they have only re-elected Republican Representatives Arch Moore and Shirley Capito, and they have never in my lifetime replaced one Republican Representative with another.
The only reason they haven’t been in play in the past elections was the DLC strategy of going after only sure things, and running away from liberal economic policies, neither of which Obama shares.
October 11th, 2008 at 10:22 am
I suspect that the rationale for Palin going to WVA is that she is a campaign bigot in search of a receptive audience. Unfortunately, [I use the word with deep regret, for I am a native son of WVA displace from that state for more than thirty-five years now] WVA continues to be one of the most bigoted, racist states in the Union. Unfortunately, for me, many of the dark-side thinking and actions come from members of my large, extended family. For that I am sorry for my gene-pool and the environment in which my family’s genes continue to thrive. Thank God, I was able to escape and raise my immediate family outside the poisonous environment of West “by-God” Virginia.
October 11th, 2008 at 11:29 am
Today’s news: Palin’s WV bus tour has been cancelled.
October 11th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
I’m relieved that Palin isn’t going to WV, but I sure wish that Obama would. There are some real heroes in the state that deserve a stnding round of applause from That One:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/02/west-virginia-mine-worker_n_131219.html?page=7
October 11th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Here’s a thought: Obama could go to Harper’s Ferry and make a speech about acting with conscience and bravery but also with respect. He can Sister-Souljah John Brown!
October 11th, 2008 at 7:24 pm
So she was going to tour in a VW bus?
Now that’s mavricky!
December 1st, 2008 at 4:20 am
HUNTINGTON, W.Va. — As a portly woman plodded ahead of him on the sidewalk, the obese mayor of Huntington, W.Va. — America’s fattest and unhealthiest city — explained why health is not a big local issue.
December 10th, 2008 at 11:16 am
A Washington State Ferry was held at the Bremerton dock after reports of a terrorist threat on Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2008. BREMERTON, Wash. – Washington state ferries between Seattle and Bremerton are moving
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