Newspapers Heart Hagan
Of all of this year’s Senate races, the one that’s most taken me by surprise is the Dole-Hagan race in North Carolina. Right out of the starting get, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire were understood to be solid pickup opportunities. And Oregon and Minnesota (along with Maine, which now looks very safe for the GOP) are classic instances of going after GOP incumbents in solid blue states in a bad year for Republicans. Then there’s Alaska where obviously Ted Stevens’ legal problems were going to create problems with him. And then you’ve got some longshot races in Kentucky and Georgia. But Hagan doesn’t fit those models and her race isn’t a longshot at this point — she’s clearly favored. It’s a turn of events that’s really taken DC by surprise.
I’m not sure exactly how to account for it, but her impressive string of newspaper endorsements does seem noteworthy. Conventional wisdom has it that these endorsements don’t matter, but part of that is probably because most newspaper endorsements are pretty predictable. Something like the Washington Post, which always endorses the Democratic presidential nominee, endorsing the Democratic presidential nominee despite having tilted somewhat more to the right in recent years passes for noteworthy. But the solidity with which Hagan has picked up endorsements — every paper in the state that’s endorsed so far — suggests something well-beyond picking up the predictable sources of support. And one can see how that kind of thing could be a big boost to a candidate who didn’t start out with great statewide name recognition or a strong financial backing.
30 Responses to “Newspapers Heart Hagan”
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October 17th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
I agree. The endorsements (and the great “rocking chairs” ad) help solidy the impression that Dole is someone famous but hasn’t done anything as senator for NC.
On the other hand, maybe we should not be surprised, since the “other” NC senate seat is famous for flipping every 6 years. With Helms gone, perhaps this one will do the same. After all, it’s not like there really is a curse on the other seat.
October 17th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Why is it a surprise? Everyone seems to know that Dole rarely(if ever) spends any time in North Carolina. Hagan is a corporate(think DLC or Blue Dog) Democrat. So who do you think newspapers will chose? A never home, carpetbagger or a corporate Democrat?
October 17th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
Hagan is a corporate (think DLC or Blue Dog) Democrat.
Not that I’m accusing you of doing this, CJ, but why does everybody bag on Hagan for being a corporate Democrat? Over the last 15 years, NC has become a corporate state. It’s home to two of the largest banks in the U.S., and millions of not billions dollars of research money get funneled there. It’s like hating on NY Senators for being pro-Wall St., or IA senators for being pro-corn.
October 17th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
Great, then in 2 more years we can oust Burr. I can’t stand that guy!
Maybe we could reinstate John Edwards…
October 17th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
My understanding is that (a) Dole has a terrible constituent services operation, and (b) she isn’t really “from” North Carolina in any real sense. Combine that with a bad year for Republicans generally and a fairly robust state-level Dem Party (almost all statewide electeds except the Senators are Democrats) and there’s your recipe.
October 17th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
NC was home to 3 of the largest banks in the country. Now it’s home to 2 of those in the top 20. Although with the Wachovia buyout, BB&T maybe moves up to the top 15.
October 17th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
One of the things that killed Santorum in 06 wasn’t just that he was too far right for the state, but rather, that he was seen as not really representing the state at all, and instead serving as a kind of Senator-at-large for the religious right. Santorum got criticized strongly for not really even living in Pennsylvania.
i think there’s a similar dynamic with Dole - she doesn’t spend much time in the state and her connection to it is tenuous, as Nicholas said.
October 17th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
With Helms gone, perhaps this one will do the same.
Burr hasn’t done that much, and he won’t do that much in the next two years, but it’s difficult to see him losing in 2010, even in the ‘flipper’ seat.
Dole has literally been an absentee senator for six years, after winning in a good climate for the GOP on name recognition, and the endorsement of Hagan is basically ‘vote for Somebody over Nobody’. It would have taken a very bad candidate in a very different year. (In addition, the GOP establishment doesn’t seem particularly enthused about helping the woman in charge of the national Senate campaign in 2006 protect her own seat.) My gut feeling is that Dole is making a token effort on the ground, avoiding areas where she doesn’t already have the vote locked up, and hoping that TV ads can save her. I don’t see it happening.
(In addition, Jerry Meek has done lots of good stuff on behalf of the state party.)
The governor’s race is tight, though, with Pat McGroin running against Raleigh’s good-ol-boys.
October 17th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Some credit may belong to BlueNC.com, which has been needling Dole for a few years now, and which has spent a lot of time focusing on Hagan.
October 17th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
The governor’s race is tight, though, with Pat McGroin running against Raleigh’s good-ol-boys.
I’m not falling for that!
October 17th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
I agree with those who say that Dole is weaker in NC than may have appeared nationally because she simply has not paid much attention to the state she supposedly represents. People wonder what NC got out of her leadership of the NRSC during a year of huge Republican losses, for instance. By contrast, the feeling was that though Jesse Helms, the person whose seat she took, was an embarassment for his retrograde ideology, he was very effective in looking out for the parochial interests of NC, and his constituent service organization was second to none.
October 17th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
A pretty decent ground game in NC, combined with the DSCC’s efforts has really made this race a nationally-prominent contest–much to the DSCC’s credit.
The Liddy Dole situation has been a slow burn in NC over the past few years. Any news she’s made (which isn’t much) has been negative, such as a few weeks of high-profiled support of proposed military airstrips in a large nature preserve that got lots of media attention in the state.
Can’t wait for this one… my absentee ballot went back to the Tarheel State today.
October 17th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
I haven’t followed NC politics much since I moved, but let me jump on the bandwagon of noting that while Democratic presidential candidates haven’t done well in the state in the past, the state level political scene is dominated by Democrats. Combine that with substantial demographic change from immigration to the state, and you have a recipe for Democratic pickups.
October 19th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
it’s very hard to get eleected in nc and obviousl this is a bad year for R’s- Dole also hasn’t destroyed hagan the way Helms (or Tom Ellis)would have
having said that the newspapers t here are basicaly all liberals who endorsed Democrats for Senate almost exorably- not only is the evidence it doesn’t matter very strong but it’s not even at the norm Afterall . It’s not like Helms lost a statewide race after all and they certinaly like him less than Dole.
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