ME-2
There’s an idea out there, propounded Michael Crowley (and again) that Maine’s second congressional district is a plausible enough target for the McCain campaign that it’s worth going after. And it seems that the campaign itself buys it, dispatching Sarah Palin to Bangor as the “campaign believes the moose-hunting Palin will connect with voters in a region where hunting, fishing and snowmobiling are popular.”
I’ve spent a lot of time in this district over the years and you can color me skeptical about this theory. The district is D+4 on the Cook PVI scale. It’s represented in congress by a Democrat and his predecessor was a Democrat. His predecessor was Susan Collins and her predecessor was Bill Cohen. That’s a classic New England political history of moderate Republicans giving way to Democrats. They may hunt moose, but there’s no tradition of Palin-style Christian conservatism playing here. And while the district is giant and includes vast backwoodsy expanses, it’s in the nature of these things that most of the district’s voters don’t live in the parts of the district where nobody lives. Bush carried Piscataquis County handily in 2004, which really is backwoodsy, but the whole county was responsible for fewer than 10,000 votes. In coastal Hancock County, people live in nice little towns, Kerry got 54.5 percent, and over 33,000 people voted. Most of all, I don’t see any particular reason to think that if McCain is going to do worse than Bush did in places like Ohio that it would make sense to think he’ll substantially improve on Bush’s showing in a place like northern Maine.
47 Responses to “ME-2”
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October 21st, 2008 at 4:25 pm
It’s worth mentioning that the most recent poll of Maine – a Research2000 poll that came out late last week – split its results into CDs:
Overall
McCain (R) 38
Obama (D) 53
1st CD
McCain (R) 35
Obama (D) 58
2nd CD
McCain (R) 41
Obama (D) 52
The sample size can’t have been enormous for either district, but the results suggest that McCain’s resources might be better spent elsewhere. Where that is, I don’t know, and frankly, I don’t think his campaign does either.
October 21st, 2008 at 4:27 pm
After seeing a link to Crowley’s argument at Tapped, I was scratching my head. I’m still not sure how this 1 electoral vote really helps McCain. But when you’re down in the polls, every EV must count, I guess…
October 21st, 2008 at 4:27 pm
Bangor? He never even kissed her!
October 21st, 2008 at 4:28 pm
McCain should probaby limit his campaign’s focus to FL, OH, NC, VA and CO. Maybe NV. Getting one vote in Maine isn’t going to help him.
October 21st, 2008 at 4:32 pm
The electoral college system is so silly, with its ‘battle-ground states’ or, in this case,’battle-ground district’ being contested. I’d like nothing better than to switch to a nationwide popular vote to chose the president. I’m guessing the vast majority of Americans share my view.
October 21st, 2008 at 4:33 pm
The column was dated in September (9/17). At that time, apparently, there was a poll that put the electoral college much closer than current figures.
Here’s hoping.
October 21st, 2008 at 4:37 pm
The only way ME’s 1 vote helps him is if he can win FL, OH, NC, VA, IN, NV, NH, and MO. ME’s 1 district would put him at exactly 270.
So ME only matter’s if McCain can literally run the table. I’d buy that he could end up with FL and OH, but not that he can hold both NC and VA, flip NH, and reverse trends in MO and NV.
October 21st, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Three things about this district:
1) Baldacci’s predecessor was Olympia Snowe, not Susan Collins. Snowe is even more of New England moderate than Collins. She had deep roots in Aroostock County (aka “The County”).
2) Collins has called for McCain to end the robo-calls. This will have real impact in Maine, which has a tradition of non-partisan type idealism. Perot came in second in Maine in 1992 (getting over 30%) and Angus King twice was elected governor as an independent running as an anti-partisan.
3) The minority population in this district is not African-American, it is Quebequos. This was the subject of the letter that led to Muskie’s famous “crying” episode out front of the Manchester Union Leader. Racial polarization just does not fit into this template.
October 21st, 2008 at 4:38 pm
As a Bates grad, I would be mildly shocked if McCain were to pull that district out. The district contains ultra liberal Bates and Colby along with UMaine Orono which I’d guess is fairly left-leaning.
On top of that, Lewiston is an economic train wreck with a population that is largely francophonic, so I’m guessing the whole ‘America First’ schtick in the GOP doesn’t play all that well.
Strikes me as a district with a lot of built in disadvantages for a national Republican.
October 21st, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Correction: John Baldacci’s predecessor in ME-02 was Olympia Snowe, not Sue Collins. The US Senate is Sue Collins’s first elected position; she came in third in 1994’s three-way race for Governor that elected Independent Angus King.
October 21st, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Rural New England is a little different than other rural parts of, say, the South or the Great Plains. For one thing, you have many more Catholics and mainline Protestants, and many fewer evangelical Protestants. New England, rural and urban, is traditionally not particularly enthusiastic about the military, and there’s a history of class division going back to the mill town era.
I wouldn’t say rural Maine is a ‘liberal’ area. People like to hunt, and if this election were a referendum on gun control Obama would probably lose. But I think there are reasons why rural Mainers may be less likely to vote Republican than other rural voters.
October 21st, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Ay-yup. In another kind of climate, this lone vote might have gone for McCain–but in that climate, he wouldn’t have had to worry about snatching it.
Even if ME-02 is a plausible pick-up, this isn’t a one-point race. Putting any serious attention in Maine is another blunder in a long list of campaign mis-steps.
Which, I guess, is fine with me. The longshot map we’ve been hearing about, with McCain recovering VA, NC, FL, OH, and flipping PA, may be about his only shot of hitting 270 on election day–but it ain’t gonna happen if he’s wasting precious time on this kind of silliness.
Which, again, is fine with me.
October 21st, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Look, I understand that likability is a big part of national politics, but this is where pundits and operatives get to say vacuous things with no recourse. ME–2 could go for McCain because many people there loosely share a hobby with his running mate?
October 21st, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Snowe is even more of New England moderate than Collins. She had deep roots in Aroostock County (aka “The County”).
That’s a mix-up of a different kind. Yes, Snowe was Baldacci’s predecessor, but her roots are in Auburn, while Collins and her family are from the County.
October 21st, 2008 at 5:07 pm
duBois said: The column was dated in September (9/17). At that time, apparently, there was a poll that put the electoral college much closer than current figures.
But Crowley reiterated that idea today, and Palin was in Maine just a few days ago, per Matt’s links.
Anyway, I’m with Craig: if they want to waste their time chasing after one EV in Maine that they’re not likely to pick up anyway, that’s fine with me. To win this thing, McCain has to either (a) run the table of FL, OH, VA, WV, NC, IN, MO, CO, and NV, or (b) somehow steal PA (unlikely) and still get all but 25 EVs of the states in (a).
October 21st, 2008 at 5:09 pm
Anyone think that maybe the idea is to send Palin to a place with as few voters (and reporters) as possible?
October 21st, 2008 at 5:54 pm
I can’t believe I’m the first to mention this, but King of the Electoral Nerds Nate Silver has been running the numbers on this for a while now.
Today’s numbers project Obama +9.7 in ME-2. Compared to PA (Obama +9.5), it’s a wash. What’s really caught my eye is that McCain has apparently given up on CO (Obama +5.6) and NM (Obama +6.5), which look much more winnable. I can only assume that this means that McCain is really also giving up on VA, which means that he can no longer afford to go after a grab bag of medium-to-small states, but needs a big, juicy, 21-EV state, no matter how crazy.
October 21st, 2008 at 6:14 pm
tom–
I think you’ve got it. The only plan left is to swing for the fences, and, frankly, count on Appalachia to reject the black candidate. Pennsylvania is a long shot, but what else is there? Run an honorable campaign and lose with dignity?
October 21st, 2008 at 6:23 pm
It’s worth noting that in some of those areas, there are many francophones. Democrats, work your magique! Imaginez s’il vous plait, Greater Quebec!
October 21st, 2008 at 7:47 pm
Two people stick out at TNR as idiotic: James Kirchik (whose idiocy knows no bounds, and whose writing is obvious within the first 5 words of a post), and Michael Crowley. I swear Trig Palin has more political sense than Michael Crowley.
October 21st, 2008 at 8:14 pm
His predecessor was Susan Collins and her predecessor was Bill Cohen.
Why write a post when you evidently don’t have the faintest grasp of the basic facts?
October 21st, 2008 at 8:15 pm
McCain will lose Maine becasue all of the conservatives in Maine will respond to my incredibly effective “write in Chuck Baldwin” campaign. The one that features a budget of < $100.00 and two homemade yard signs.
October 21st, 2008 at 8:48 pm
What an odd map of Maine. The state’s biggest city, Portland, is not marked.
October 21st, 2008 at 9:19 pm
the map is of the 2-CD. It includes August because its the capital, but Lewiston and Waterville are both in the 2nd CD.
October 21st, 2008 at 9:19 pm
Are there any wolves in Maine? Palin could fly over and shoot them, and that would bring the 2nd around for sure. How about foxes?
October 21st, 2008 at 9:28 pm
“What an odd map of Maine. The state’s biggest city, Portland, is not marked.”
It’s the map of the second district; Portland is in the first. These Congressional Atlas (or whatever they’re called) maps only show cities in the district being profiled. Look at CQ Politics for more of these maps.
October 21st, 2008 at 10:01 pm
I’ve been phonebanking in the 2nd cd and would be extremely surprised if McCain won it. Tonight I talked to a Republican who is voting for Obama. I asked him why and he said, “The last 8 years.” Besides, Bush 43 really tried to win the district twice, visiting the district himself multiple times, and he couldn’t.
And it’s not just that these folks like Republicans who are moderate. They also like Republicans who don’t do negative campaigns and who are dignified and calm — Just take a look at (especially) Olympia Snowe and Bill Cohen. Margaret Chase Smith is still remembered and revered for having criticized McCarthyism and guilt by association. Palin has virtually nothing in common with those elected officials except for the Rs next to their names.
Crowley shows almost no understanding of Maine and its 2nd congressional district. Lots of people hunt and fish and ride snowmobiles but they are not yahoos. They are proud of their civic traditions and their history of very distinguished political leaders from both parties.
October 21st, 2008 at 10:31 pm
OK smartass, you cobble together 270 Electoral Votes worth of places we might plausibly be able to compete.
October 21st, 2008 at 11:11 pm
First Dude also made a campaign appearance up in Palmyra last week (central Maine). Pretty low profile, although it seemed geared to local Republicans running in state elections.
My wife is running for state rep up here….this district has never voted Democrat. It’ll be a miracle if she can pull it off, but I really think there’s a chance. ME-02 is really hurting for jobs and it’s getting very gray…lots of people on fixed income. Fuel prices are a big deal.
I am encouraged to say that the Maine Democratic Party has utilized the VoteBuilder software that is finally going to give us a real handle on the district’s voter profiles(thanks Dr. Dean!). I’ve seen more organization support and effort in this election than all of the past elections combined.
Sadly, while Barack seems to be holding his own, Tom Allen just isn’t connecting with the voter in this district for his Senaterace with Sue Collins. His demeanor would be better suited for ME-01. I think he made a major mistake when he cut the legs out of the VoteVet’s ads against Sue Collins. He doesn’t have the killer instinct to go negative. Maybe he’s too worried about voter perceptions against attacking a woman, but he can’t win on positive ads that underscore his record of being right on all of the important issues. A damn shame.
October 22nd, 2008 at 1:00 am
ME-02 is Perot country, but it’s never been wing nut bible-thumping land.
Also northern Maine has been steadily trending Democrat. In places like the County the population has been dropping steadily and a lot of the young people move away. A lot of the economic vitality is in places like MDI (tourism and biotech) that are heavily Democratic.
/from ME-02.
October 22nd, 2008 at 8:43 am
Maine has not been won by a republican candidate since 1988. Even the Bushes – who the local rags slobber all over every time they visit the compound in Kennebunkport – cannot carry Maine. Clinton, Kerry, Gore all won Maine.
There is no reason whatever to think McCain will win here, and my understanding is that he’s already out in terms of advertising.
The only reason Susan Collins is going to stay in the Senate is that Tom Allen has run such a poor campaign. It’s depressing how many cars are around with both Obama and Susan Collins – “Our Senator” (gag) – bumper stickers. You can go over to Kos and read diaries defending her. I wonder if those people actually live in Maine.
October 22nd, 2008 at 9:23 am
So I’m a Bangor resident and neighbor of Susan Collins – she’s sadly going to win because Allen never ran the “Bush Republican” campaign he could have. Our neighborhood is FULL of McCain/Palin signs, in comparison to the Obama signs, and I suppose that’s typical for the slightly wealthy Republican voter up here who doesn’t recognize that the party is home to christianist insane people. But, when you talk to them (it’s hard, but possible, to talk to idiots), turns out they all really don’t like McCain as he now is. They want to vote for McCain 2000.
All in all, the ticket doesn’t stand a chance up here, not in the aggregate. Sure, Palin appeals to the woodsmen, but how many are there? Not enough. Maine will stay Democratic…
October 22nd, 2008 at 1:41 pm
So, the Yglesias family summer house was in Bar Harbor, eh?
December 16th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
ORONO, Maine – A former University of Maine student who may have illegally gained access to more than 200 University of Maine e-mail accounts was arrested Wednesday afternoon in Lewiston. James Wieland, 26, was charged with aggravated
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