Looking Ahead
May I just say that I, for one, am really looking forward to the 2012 GOP primary. Republicans almost always wind up going with the candidate who’s “next in line.” Thus, this year’s GOP race went through some unpredictable twists and turns but ultimately wound up where one would have expected far in advance — with next in line John McCain taking the ring. But if McCain wins, it’s not really clear who’s next in line. Both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee have a solid case to make that they finished second in the primaries. And then there’s Sarah Palin.
And in a lot of respects I think Palin’s emergence has helped make Huckabee look really good. Months ago, he was this social conservative darling with undeniable political talent and a seemingly weak grasp of national policy. But compared to Palin, the guy looks like the most knowledgeable candidate on the planet. And while he has a lot of Palin’s small town charm, he’s actually charming enough that a lot of city slickers find him pretty charming too (sign me up). He’ll have a few years, and a Fox News show, to try to improve his command of various issues and then you could see him being a quite formidable contender. If, that is, he can find a fundraising base.
And then there’s Jeb, America’s next Bush waiting in the wings.
67 Responses to “Looking Ahead”
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October 19th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
And then there’s Jeb, America’s next Bush waiting in the wings.
George P. might also be considered America’s next Bush.
October 19th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Never say never, but I really think it’s going to be awhile before another Bush gets to run for President in this country. It’s gonna take awhile even for Americans, even with our short memories, to forget the one we’ve just endured for eight years. I think GWB has, after all, ruined things for that family.
(Not to mention the rest of us.)
October 19th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
If Huckabee can keep social conservatives and defuse the hostility of social not-so-conservatives, e.g. by embracing practical steps to reduce abortion (by promoting adoption and even providing incentives to parenthood) rather than a quixotic judicial agenda, he’ll be a credible candidate even without the support of the plutocratic elite. But it’s hard to imagine Obama in 2012 being at much risk of defeat by any Republican–he’s not someone who is going to fuck things up, or create/permit that impression.
October 19th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
A Bush candidacy is possible only if the economy soars during an Obama presidency.
If the Clintons are any indication, it would take eight years of serious leadership to make Americans forget that supply-side economics is catastrophic bullshit.
If Obama succeeds, Bill Kristol should run Neil Bush in 2016. I don’t know how he’ll fare against Chelsea Clinton.
October 19th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
We will, someday, have a president Jeb–most likely after two terms of BO.
October 19th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
2012: Obama beats Huckabee
2016: Mark Warner beats Jeb
October 19th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Eww. Mark Warner.
Huckabee’s looking great these days. He has some time to figure out how to sound acceptable on foreign policy (and/or go on “fact-finding” missions to key places) and to figure out how to plug into the Republican Hugeass Money Machine. The unholy union of the religious whackos and the well-heeled rich assholes is the only proven way the modern Republican party can win.
October 19th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Assuming Obama wins, I doubt Jindal will take on a sitting president in 2012. But otherwise, he’d be a great pick.
October 19th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
These three, for a start: Newt, Jindal, and Palin.
It could be a bloodbath between the religious right republicans and the end all taxation bunch. Wonderful!
October 19th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
There will never be another Bush. Democrats are going to be running against GWB when my grandkids are voting and they haven’t been born yet.
October 19th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
I don’t find Huckabee charming. That’s not how I would describe a man who would work to pardon a serial rapist and murderer because it would embarrass Bill Clinton.
October 19th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Assuming Obama wins, I doubt Jindal will take on a sitting president in 2012. But otherwise, he’d be a great pick.
That’s the crux. We don’t know what things will look like in 2012. If things don’t get any better, it will be open warfare on the GOP side because they think they can win. If the economy is doing well, will Huckabee or Romney want to run what would surely be a quixotic campaign?
October 19th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Honestly, I think the way the gop is going, Sen Macaca will be able to run as both a frontrunner and a moderate. It’s going to be a fun four years.
October 19th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
I don’t find Huckabee charming. That’s not how I would describe a man who would work to pardon a serial rapist and murderer because it would embarrass Bill Clinton.
I find this an odd comment, since ‘charming’ refers to attitude, not substance. Mussolini could be charming. Chou En-lai could be charming. Even Stalin could be charming on occasion.
October 19th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
What I love about the GOP is how there’s no shortage of nutjobs waiting in the wings to run for POTUS. It must be something in the goddamn water.
October 19th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
I’m really glad Huckabee was not the nominee this year. He has a record that can make him look like an economic populist if you squint hard, and put drops in your eyes to make your vision blurry. (I.E., he occasionally takes verbal shots at tax breaks for the wealthy, and speaks to the need to fund health care, education and child care as ways of supporting family values and traditional marriage.)Combined with his aw-shucks charm, charisma, and pretty good sense of humor, hhe might have proven a dangerous opponent.
October 19th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
I’ve long been thinking Huckabee for 2012. He’s going to have a lot of appeal, especially in southern and rural areas. Folksy, funny, right-ward Christian musician preacher. It’s an appealing combination to the gravel roaders. And Newt’s gonna inject himself in there somewhere – jes’ wait and see.
October 19th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
After W, the only person in the US with the last name Bush who will ever have a snowball’s chance in hell at being picked for any position higher than PTA leader will be Reggie.
October 19th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
Newt Gingrich.
October 19th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
Republicans almost always wind up going with the candidate who’s “next in line.”
I don’t know the origin of this myth, but it isn’t true. Here’s something I wrote about it at the beginning of this cycle’s primary:
Looking back over the last 40 or so years of Republican presidential candidates, I only see four elections where there wasn’t an overwhelming, dominating Republican favorite: 1964, 1980, 1996, and 2000. In 1964, Barry Goldwater wasn’t obviously “next in line.” In 1968, Nixon ran more or less unopposed for the Republican nomination. In 1976, an insurgent Ronald Reagan almost took out a sitting president. In 1980, George H.W. Bush won Iowa but then Reagan destroyed him–probably the best example of the “next in line” theory I can find. In 1996 there was no obvious “next in line,” and Bob Dole emerged from a very strange field where Colin Powell was the dream candidate, and Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes racked up some early primary wins. In 2000, George W. Bush won because he had the most money and the backing of other governors–frankly, it was more McCain, Orrin Hatch, or Lamar Alexander’s “turn” in that election than it was GWB’s.
October 19th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
I also think that Huckabee’s new show is not to be underestimated. He’s following Reagan’s post-’76 path. He may not say a whole lot about policy every episode, but over the course of three years he’ll get an order of magnitude or two more exposure than any of his competitors. That’s a lot of time to cross the “preparedness” threshold.
Meanwhile, I’ll echo Jamie in betting that Jindal keeps his powder dry, assuming that Obama wins and that his administration doesn’t implode. Huckabee may be in a strong position for the nomination, but no one is likely to be in a particularly strong position for the general–unless, of course, you buy into Brooks’s “inevitable overreach” theory.
October 19th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
Scott de B.,
Exuding charm assumes a positive character trait.
I would describe Mussolini, Stalin, et al as cunning, hardly charming.
October 19th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
The GOP should have learned the lesson – America doesn’t want the fundicrats running things anymore. Palin, Jindal and any other theocrats won’t stand a chance in the general election.
October 19th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Scott, don’t bother. Tristero is obsessed with Huckabee’s pardon, even maintaining a grudge against Gail Collins for writing about it in less-than-outraged terms.
October 19th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
tomemos,
You’re absolutely right. That pardon should have disqualified Michael Huckabee for further public service. I simply can’t believe he remains a national figure.
And I think it’s a disgrace.
But I don’t have a grudge against Gail Collins for giving him a pass on that. There are so many things to hold against Collins.
October 19th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Exuding charm assumes a positive character trait.
I don’t think this is true. Exuding charm assumes a neutral character trait: being charming. All charming someone is is leaving them with a positive impression of you.
Obviously, Hitler was able to get large groups of people to have a positive impression of him, and at the same time he was able to inspire fanatical loyalty in many of his closest associates. But acknowledging that isn’t granting Hitler a positive trait.
October 19th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Well, the money behind the Republicans hates Huckabee, because he’s waffled on taxes. So I expect Huckabee to suck up to Mammon hard for the next three years and then cruise to an easy victory.
October 19th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
The economy may be a lot worse in 2012 than many of you seem to expect.
October 19th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
Don’t know a lot about what Huck stands for but he comes off as a funny guy on the TV. Running on typical Republican BS I am sure he would have a good chance at winning.
Look at the current race. Obama should be 20 points ahead in Texas after the last 8 years. Somehow people still think Gramps would be a good choice.
October 19th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
Not so fast. What if?
October 19th, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Let’s not count the chickens before they’ve hatched, Matt.
October 19th, 2008 at 7:27 pm
One thing Huckabee doesn’t have and probably won’t have is the resentment thing going. That’s more important for the GOP nomination than half the things mentioned on this thread. After this year, Palin will suddenly be considered vetted and experienced, even though she’s neither. She very clearly has the ambition, and she’ll be a very exciting candidate for the right in 2012. Compare that to people like Romney who dropped tens of millions on Iowa only to lose. In 2012 it will be another horrible campaign but I doubt she can win in the general.
Re: the charm question. No, Hitler and Stalin were never charming! They had very strong charismatic appeal that had nothing to do with charm. Palin was kind of charming until she started campaigning. Huckabee is very charming, in that he is almost impossible to loathe, even for people who find his policy views repulsive.
The pardon issue is one big reason why we have politicians like Mitt Romney, who seems to have refused to pardon anyone, ever, for any reason, because someday he thought he might run for president.
October 19th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
If Palin ever goes up against Huckabee he’ll bury her under a mountain of quotable, charming mixed praise.
October 19th, 2008 at 7:51 pm
Jindal. Jindal Jindal Jindal. The Very Serious People of the republican party love him. And if an Indian Rhodes Scholar can win governor of Louisiana, he doesn’t have any problems getting along with “real america”.
October 19th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
Pretty cool dot-neck Jazz bass there, Huck.
October 19th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
Whoever it is, it won’t be Palin, unless Obama is an unqualified disaster (or unless Obama loses to McCain, McCain doesn’t run for a second term, and she proves herself well in the next four years). Going up against a current President who you essentially accused of being a terrorist? It would be a joke; Obama would have a 1984-esque victory.
Huckabee, I rather like, but having a Fox News show will make him less credible, not more; he should find something more substantive to do. His combination of economic populism – with a preference for non-governmental solutions – and social conservatism (which most Americans actually agree with except in very solidly blue states) would be a good foundation for a new sort of Republican party. His style is directly opposite to the race-baiting and politics of resentment seen in the current GOP (and epitomized by Palin and the worst aspects of the McCain campaign) as shown by his early support for immigration reform and his defense of Obama (and of Wright) during the Rev. Wright debacle. All he needs is some international experience and a thoughtful foreign policy, and he’d be a good contender.
October 19th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
My friend and I have been talking lately about how much more formidable a candidate Huckabee would have been than McCain (not counting my chickens, if your winning an election is considered a miracle, you’re not a formidable candidate). He has none of the Washington stink on him, he’s a social conservative who speaks his mind without offending people who disagree with him (which is what Obama has going for him in reverse) and as someone else mentioned, it’s almost impossible not to like this guy. Based on what I’ve seen of him, I would be comfortable having him as my President and I agree with maybe 30% of this policy ideas. That’s political talent.
October 19th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
Despite his personal religiosity and occasional political pander, Jindal isn’t a theocrat — he’s a highly competent bureaucrat. I hope we get more of them in office. Unlike Palin, he probably even knows what the word “socialism” means.
“Barack Obama calls it spreading the wealth,” she said. “Joe Biden calls higher taxes patriotic. But Joe the plumber and Ed the dairy man, I believe that they think that it sounds more like socialism. Friends, now is no time to experiment with socialism.”
Gov. Palin might want to explain that to the Bush Administration, which seems to think now is the perfect time to engage in government ownership of a major sector of the economy, i.e. the financial sector.
October 19th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
If Palin ever goes up against Huckabee he’ll bury her under a mountain of quotable, charming mixed praise.
I dunno– it will be a tough contest, like “dueling banjos” but with competing variations of “bless his/her heart” being exchanged back and forth.
October 19th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
“I would be comfortable having him as my President and I agree with maybe 30% of [his] policy ideas. That’s political talent.”
I’ve wondered a lot about how much closer this race would have been if McCain had picked Huckabee as his running mate rather than Palin. He would have energized the evangelical base just as much as Palin, and he is BY FAR the most skilled politician on the Republican side right now. He has a very similar skill/confidence to Obama in that he knows that if he is asked a question and gives a thoughtful answer, good things will happen. It’s SO different from the politicians that have to stick to their scripts out of fear of a gaffe, or people like Palin who can’t even do that.
Sure, people who immerse themselves in politics will disqualify a candidate like Huckabee for a horrible pardon or a loony policy idea (Flat Tax?! WTF!), but most Americans won’t.
His failure was that he was hated by the anti-tax/financial core of the party, so he didn’t have the money to compete. If he learns from Obama’s fundraising organization and spends 4 years cultivating a large base of small donors, he could be VERY formidable. And realistically, the Republican evangelicals would be the perfect base to mine for that, especially if they’re out of power.
October 19th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
I dunno– it will be a tough contest, like “dueling banjos” but with competing variations of “bless his/her heart” being exchanged back and forth.
In my Arkansas, pentecostal family, “bless your heart”, means something very close to “Fuck you”.
October 19th, 2008 at 10:58 pm
Hence, dueling.
Anyway, the way the GOP is headed, why not Mike Pence?
October 19th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
Jindal isn’t a theocrat
If the religious right thinks Obama’s the anti-Christ, Jindal would be the perfect guy to do an exorcism on America
October 19th, 2008 at 11:26 pm
“I’ve wondered a lot about how much closer this race would have been if McCain had picked Huckabee as his running mate rather than Palin. He would have energized the evangelical base just as much as Palin, and he is BY FAR the most skilled politician on the Republican side right now.”
Which shows us how much the Bill Kristol Beltway types on the hard right rule the party. No way they were going to let Huckabee in there. This would have been a very different race with Huckabee; the guy managed to win praise from Cornell West. He’s a white Southern Baptist conservative who doesn’t scare black people. That’s talent. Sadly that kind of “talent” in the GOP is kind of like engineering skill in the NFL. Not useful, not wanted.
For McCain my guess is that Huckabee is more maverick than he seems, and less religious nut than he seems; with Palin it’s the reverse. We know which one he preferred.
“(Flat Tax?! WTF!)”
It’s actually far worse–it’s a national sales tax. The music industry is barely holding onto its ability to sell music for money, and yet Huckabee claims that a 30% national sales tax will allow us to get rid of the IRS and any other comparable enforcement mechanism.
The plan would be disasterous. Thankfully it’s so dumb that there is no plausible scenario in which a President Huckabee would ever get it considered in Cognress. One of those instances where a politician won’t be blamed, if his proposal is stupid enough.
October 20th, 2008 at 12:41 am
@ Antid Oto
I took what Matt meant as that the Republicans tend to pick a former loser, except for W. McCain lost the primary in 2000, Dole was the failed VP in ‘76, Bush Sr. lost the primary in 1980, Ray-gun was running for president since he became a republican (something in ‘68, and primary loss in ‘76), Ford is a unique case, Nixon lost to JFK.
In the Democratic party, you only get one chance in the post Stevenson era. If you don’t win in your first primary race, you are better off never trying again. With the exception of Gore, who had to be VP in between.
October 20th, 2008 at 1:09 am
I doubt that the GOP would give a second chance to Romney and Huckabee. McCain only clinched the nomination because all his opponents had major flaws.
Charles Crist would be a very dangerous candidate. He has good relations with both evangelicals and blacks and he would lock Florida. Sonny Perdue from Georgia is not all that bad. Jindal has good chances too.
If McCain wins I would put my money on Kathleen Sebelius or Phil Bredesen.
October 20th, 2008 at 1:15 am
“In the Democratic party, you only get one chance in the post Stevenson era.”
Don´t forget Humphrey and LBJ. Sure, the latter was the VP when Kennedy got killed. Maybe the problem is that the caucuses and primaries excludes people that already lost there.
October 20th, 2008 at 1:21 am
“I’ve wondered a lot about how much closer this race would have been if McCain had picked Huckabee as his running mate rather than Palin.”
The roots of the GOP base is testosterone, not the Church. And most of the non-religious people in the GOP thinks that Huckabee is a tax and spend nutjob that releases convicted killers…
October 20th, 2008 at 2:17 am
“Sonny Perdue from Georgia is not all that bad”
Well, the two huge issues in Georgia are water and transit, and Perdue has blown both. His Democratic predecessor Roy Barnes saw the writing on the wall and 6 year ago rolled out plans to build new reservoirs and a commuter rail system for metro Atlanta. Newly elected Governor Perdue soon after canceled these plans. He didn’t change his mind on both (that is, finally listened to his fellow Republicans screaming at him to act) until this year.
As for this year’s race, the best issue the Republicans had to run on is border control (it let them to simultaneously run against Democrats AND President Bush).. By nominating the co-sponsor of the amnesty bill, they took their strongest issue off the table.
October 20th, 2008 at 8:19 am
Re: And then there’s Jeb, America’s next Bush waiting in the wings.
Jeb Bush is flotsam on the Florida beaches now. The Florida GOP governor to watch is Charlie Crist. I’m not sure how he would play nationally because he’s moderate and populist (took on the insurance companies in FL, something Jeb never dared, or wanted, to do), though that may be the direction the GOP has to go to stay viable. Biggest negatives: wishy-washy on Christianist issues and dogged by gay rumors.
October 20th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Could the point of Palin be to make Huckabee look better? Akin to the arguments made in the books Influence or Predictably Irrational, where by a car salesman shows 3 cars, A, B, and C. A is over priced at 40K with all of the extras, C is priced lowest at 25K but includes no extras, and B included some extras, the ones most people want, but not all and is priced at 30K. A and C help us determine what the cars are worth but really the point is for the buyer to purchase B.
Palin is A, the extreme. Huckabee is B, still extreme by most standards but when compared to Palin he comes across as relatively moderate.
October 20th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
I think whoever the Republicans nominate in 2012 is likely to get waxed, 1984-style (except that they will do better than Mondale–there’s no scenario where the Republican won’t pick up, at a minimum, UT, ID, WY, OK, AL, plus a few others). So that’s a factor; a strong Republican candidate might sit 2012 out and wait until 2016. (This is all assuming an Obama win.)
No one’s yet mentioned T-Paw, Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, who would make a good candidate. I live in MN, and I hate the guy, but he’s got good conservative bona-fides, he’s been elected twice from a blue state, he’s handsome, articulate, and fairly smart. His second term as gov is up in 2010, so if he’s going to run for President, 2012 is the time for him to do it.
October 20th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
Kiran: That’s one interpretation of what Matt said, I guess, but it’s not what I think he meant. In any case, my broader point is that there simply haven’t been enough elections in the the primary era to offer any indication of what Republicans “almost always” do. I think you have to throw out 1960, 1972, 1976, 1984, 1988, 1992, and 2004 — any election where a sitting president or VP ran. Republican primary voters didn’t have a meaningful choice in any of those elections. That leaves you with 1964, 1968, 1980, 1996, and 2000. Five cases, of which at least two — 1964 and 2000 — don’t fit the theory any way you try to describe it. To me, not very convincing.
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