Oct 23rd, 2008 at 3:13 pm
Join Rudy 2012?
It’s not hard to register a domain name, but JoinRudy2012 has a look of authenticity about it.
Meanwhile, I agree with Ambinder that I think Sarah Palin should be understood as the frontrunner for the 2012 nomination. I would also further note that the McCain campaign’s idiosyncratic ideas about which states are the battleground states in this election has taken her to Iowa and New Hampshire.
78 Responses to “Join Rudy 2012?”
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October 23rd, 2008 at 3:17 pm
He’ll have to overcome Palin’s violent civil war to get the nomination…
http://www.sunstateactivist.org/ssablog/
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:18 pm
“…ideas [...] has taken her…”
At the risk of Gitmo, it should be “have”, not “has”.
A Fearless and Feckless Grammarian
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:20 pm
I think it’ll be Huckabee. He’s looking roughly 9000x more knowledgeable and deft with policy then he was during the primary thanks to Palin… plus he has the same base appeal. He’s going to spend the next 4 years positioning on the TeeVee… I expect he’ll take the nomination in a walk.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:23 pm
The Republican Party usually gives its nomination to either a dour retread or a charismatic moron. So the early money should be on either Romney or Palin.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:24 pm
I agree with Ambinder that I think Sarah Palin should be understood as the frontrunner for the 2012 nomination
Completely disagree. Mike Huckabee is the front-runner unless Jeb Bush decides he wants to jump in. Palin is battling it out with Romney and Pawlenty in the next tier.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Oh please god, please let Sarah Palin be the front runner in 2012….
It would be so much fun to mock her for 18 months.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:26 pm
Palin in 2012? No way. I’m with Kevin Drum on this one. She’ll be invisible and largely forgotten in 3 months, let alone 3 years. She is a purely empty vessel, lacking any basic intellect or grasp of policy, or inclination to achieve a minimal grasp of issues. So sure, you might say she’s very similar to George W. Bush. And yes, the base loves her — BUT, the GOP establishment does not. The GOP establishment *did* like Bush. That’s the key difference. Without their support, she’ll go nowhere. Also, while the base is probably stupid and gullible enough to continue supporting her, I suspect key base figures like Dobson, Tony Perkins, etc, etc will throw her under the bus after the election. Sure they’re all rallying around her now; they’re good foot soldiers, and the GOP prizes loyalty and polices dissent well. But however stupid their followers are, I do believe the “leaders” of the base can at least read poll numbers. It’s clear that Palin is tanking McCain’s numbers and killing him with independents. The moment they no longer after to support her, they won’t. The moronic herd of the base will then soon follow, sheep-like, the commands of their leaders.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:28 pm
If the rage from RNC contributors over the $150k shopping spree is real, I’d have to say no dice for Palin. She’s become a progressively worse candidate as this campaign has gone on, despite getting (arguably) more well-versed in the issues. She’s now hounded by a confirmed abuse of power and financial miscues (per diem, travel for the kids, etc), in addition to her approval getting driven through the floor while her negatives go through the roof. If she can’t connect with the RNC donor base to compensate, she’s done on a national stage.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:32 pm
picking frontrunners already? WTF?
18 months ago, everyone thought it’d be Hillary v Rudy in 08.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:33 pm
I agree with Ambinder that I think Sarah Palin should be understood as the frontrunner for the 2012 nomination
Because Ferraro was the frontrunner in 88, Quayle in 96, Jack Kemp in 2000, Lieberman in 2004 and Edwards this year
Please. Lately, the only person with a worse chance the previous general election’s loser is his running mate.
Maybe if McCain wins and only does one term.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:33 pm
It won’t be Palin, given the poor impression she’s made with too many Republican moderates and independents. That, and she’s really a lightweight who is all veneer and no wood.
The rest of the 2008 Republican field is no better though, so who knows about 2012? Pawlenty, maybe?
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:38 pm
I’m not sure how she’ll fare in the winner take all nature of the Republican primaries. Whether she likes it or not, the states that have the most electores are states like California, New York, Texas, Illinois…There’s a reason Huckabee couldn’t win these states. Republicans in these states tend to be more moderate than Palin’s base. If there’s a reasonable Republican running in 2012, prepare for the split of the GOP.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:38 pm
One of my favorite pastimes these days is to go read the “intelligent” conservative case for Republicans running Sarah Palin in 2012.
I mean, imagine if the “intelligent” Democrats’ reaction to 2004 was that we would have won IF ONLY WE’D PICKED HOWARD DEAN.
Luckily for Dems, the Republicans have so segmented themselves from mainstream discourse that most of them have absolutely no clue how everyone who isn’t a Fox News raging Republican has been completely horrified and turned off by Palin. If you watch Fox News and read the NRO, you’d have no idea she’s wildly unpopular, and is growing steadily more unpopular the more people know about her.
Let’s hope they stay in their echo chamber until 2012.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:39 pm
I agree with this, though it is possible she’ll be the front runner until late 2011.
I can see every prominent Republican going into hiding for two+ years, leaving her the spotlight by default. Even so, when the first legitimate contender starts an exploratory commitee in 2011, she’ll evaporate.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:39 pm
I would also further note that the McCain campaign’s idiosyncratic ideas about which states are the battleground states in this election has taken her to Iowa and New Hampshire.
I hadn’t heard anyone say this out loud yet… and it never occurred to me either… But now, seeing it, of course it makes perfect sense. Wow.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:41 pm
It looks like the domain was registered last year sometime so its obviously not in response to any recent developments:
Domain Name: JOINRUDY2012.COM
Registrar: GODADDY.COM, INC.
Whois Server: whois.godaddy.com
Referral URL: http://registrar.godaddy.com
Name Server: NS35.DOMAINCONTROL.COM
Name Server: NS36.DOMAINCONTROL.COM
Status: clientDeleteProhibited
Status: clientRenewProhibited
Status: clientTransferProhibited
Status: clientUpdateProhibited
Updated Date: 10-nov-2007
Creation Date: 06-feb-2007
Expiration Date: 06-feb-2009
http://reports.internic.net/cgi/whois?whois_nic=joinrudy2012.com&type=domain
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:42 pm
I can think of two good reasons for McCain to push for Palin in 2012 – bitterness and revenge! He probably hates Republicans almost as much as he hates Democrats by now. Boosting Palin’s popularity within the party is about the most harmful thing McCain can do to Republicans.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:44 pm
I know that horse races are fun to watch, and punditry is fun in itself, but talking about the front runner in 2012 is a little silly. I also hate to encourage the growth in the presidential campaign season.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:44 pm
BTW, I’m really surprised people are counting Palin out in this comments thread. The Republican base LOVES THE SHIT out of her, and she’s already going off the McCain reservation in order to distance herself from the loss. Watch for lots of “if only they’d let Palin be Palin” articles in the Republican post-mortems. She’ll have lots of prominent backers wanting to groom her. She’ll be in the mix.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:46 pm
big woo, I’ve been saying for a month and a half (give or take) that Palin’s looking out for her own chances in 2012 or 2016 (depending on how things go for the first Obama term). Of course, Rudy’s too long in the teeth to think about 2016 unless he’s in place already. He’s probably got too many vowels in his name, and in the wrong places, for him to be a real freeper candidate, but Palin sure can be that.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:47 pm
The complete lack of any political talent in the GOP is breathtaking.If I were the GOP I’d wait until Jindal runs in 2016. I’m running through the list of 2012 contenders — Palin, Romney, Huckabee, Pawlenty, Jeb Bush — and all I can see is a convention of lightweights. If Jeb Bush had a different last name, it’d be interesting. I’ve lived in Nashville and NYC in the last three years — Nashville loves Huckabee and Palin; hates RUdy and ROmney. NYC is the complete opposite.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:48 pm
Gee. I hope it’s not a scam. I just gave $4,600.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Matt, here’s the problem with Ambinder’s argument: 4 years is not long enough to get Palin ready for the big stage. Or, more accurately, no amount of time is long enough. She’s not capable of meeting the demands of running a successful campaign (let alone leading a nation). It’s easy enough to wave these things aside when she’s just up for VP, but who is going to seriously argue that she’d make a good president, even after 4 more years at the helm of AK?
Ambinder says: “Pro-Palin voices will begin to talk a great deal about how the only person to ever come close to beating Barack Obama was Hillary Clinton. Palin will seem to fit the Hillary mold for many Republican primary voters.” But a) Hillary didn’t beat Obama despite being a huge frontrunner at the beginning; and b) Hillary had the benefit of serious political bona fides–you didn’t have to like or agree with her, but you had to take her seriously as a politician and as policy-maker. So why would anyone want a watered-down version of HRC, when the real deal didn’t get the job done the first time?
I just don’t get it. Can you post something laying out exactly how you’d see this happening?
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:50 pm
She’s still going to be stupid in 4 years. You can’t just gain intellectual abilities at that age. She will still be a national joke.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:50 pm
I predict that Obama will be the Democratic front runner in 2012. Any predictions on a Republican front runner is just casino punditry.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:51 pm
In 2012, she’ll have more of a record in Alaska. She tried the stunt of vetoing the budget once. She’s going to do that again? Eventually, she’ll have to show that she’s interested in the actual machinery of governing like Ronald Reagan did as governor of California. So far, it looks like she was only interested in getting herself known. Which she did well, sure, but that appears to be about all she’s good at.
And she’s got to lose that artificial accent. For the love of all that’s good and noble. Please, Palin. Lose the phony accent.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:52 pm
I don’t think Palin’s very likely. If it’s a down Republican year, then I doubt she runs since she can’t win in that environment and I don’t think she wants to be the next Goldwater.
If it’s an up Republican year, then the field opens up and she’s running against Jindal, Huck and who knows who else – folks who are a lot more attractive to larger swathes of the population. She might well enter the race but founder when she has a hard time finding enough big money backers to keep her afloat.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:53 pm
JoinRudy2012 basically redirects to JoinRudy2008 inside of a frame, so the page keeps “2012″ in the title. It’s most likely legit, but as I pointed out on pandagon and others have pointed out here, the domain was registered in 2006.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:53 pm
I was going to say that this post was yet another example of early chicken-counting, but then I realized that even if McCain wins, he’s not likely to last until 2012, so either way Palin could end up being the frontrunner for the nomination.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:54 pm
I mean, imagine if the “intelligent” Democrats’ reaction to 2004 was that we would have won IF ONLY WE’D PICKED HOWARD DEAN.
You’re right. It’s crazy to think Dems would have had a better chance running a guy who had opposed the invsasion of Iraq. Obviously, the way to go was to run the guy who wanted to put in more troops.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:54 pm
Unless Palin is a *LOT* more impressive in person than we’ve seen in the debate & interviews (highly unlikely, but I guess you never know), there’s no way she’s going to get backing from big republican donors. They’ve just learned from Bush how dangerous it is to put an empty suit into the white house, I don’t think they’re going to make the same mistake again.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:54 pm
In that case she’d miss out on her real opportunity as a hugely, hugely profitable camp revivalist and probably televangelical.
October 23rd, 2008 at 3:59 pm
I’m also with Kevin Drum on this. Me too. Yup. You betcha.
Almost every prominent Republican who has left the McCain Reservation has cited choosing Palin as the primary reason for their defection. I have the feeling her days as Alaska’s governor are also limited to a single term or possibly less.
October 23rd, 2008 at 4:02 pm
You’re right. It’s crazy to think Dems would have had a better chance running a guy who had opposed the invsasion of Iraq. Obviously, the way to go was to run the guy who wanted to put in more troops.
Dean plays well to the base (of which you are obviously one), not the middle. Same with Palin. Your equivalent in the Republican party is saying “If only we’d run the real conservative, not the guy who supported the bailout and is a turncoat etc etc et.”
October 23rd, 2008 at 4:05 pm
I’m hoping it will be Palin in 2012 as it means SNL will be watchable again.
Rudy’s campaign last year was terrible; I highly double he would be able to lock up the nomination. I’d put my money of Huckabee.
October 23rd, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Also, not to be too crass, but a large portion of her appeal to the crazy base is her appearance (Rich Lowry’s starbursts, Limbaugh’s photo comparison of Palin & HRC). 4 years isn’t going to help that. She’ll almost be pushing 50 by 2012. Her starburst-generating capacities will be a little lower then.
October 23rd, 2008 at 4:06 pm
I was going to write a more thorough response saying how wrong MY is on this, but then I saw that’s already been taken care of by several folks. It boggles my mind that two guys paid for their political blogging like MY and Ambinder can believe that Palin can be the frontrunner for any election outside of Alaska, and maybe not even there, after all the negative exposure she’s received.
October 23rd, 2008 at 4:18 pm
If someone had asked me after election day in 2004 who I thought was going to be the frontrunner for the Democrats in 2008, I would’ve said Hillary Clinton. I guess I would’ve been right, but I thought the field would include Edwards, Kerry, Clark, Dean, Richardson, Bredesen, Bayh, Vilsack, and Mark Warner. I would not have guessed that Biden, Dodd, or Obama would run.
Remember that Obama didn’t take the idea seriously until he went on tour in support of other Democrats for the 2006 elections. We’ll have a much better picture of the Republican field in Nov. 2010. Assuming Obama wins.
October 23rd, 2008 at 4:20 pm
I would also further note that the McCain campaign’s idiosyncratic ideas about which states are the battleground states in this election has taken her to Iowa and New Hampshire.
I just worked out that, if Obama wins, the last non-incumbent to have won the NH primary and then become President will have been GHWB in 1988. And before that, decades of “nobody has been elected President without winning the NH primary”. Things change.
October 23rd, 2008 at 4:22 pm
I was going to write a more thorough response saying how wrong MY is on this, but then I saw that’s already been taken care of by several folks. It boggles my mind that two guys paid for their political blogging like MY and Ambinder can believe that Palin can be the frontrunner for any election outside of Alaska, and maybe not even there, after all the negative exposure she’s received.
How much time have you spent on NRO and other conservative blogs? It doesn’t matter what liberals and independents think, just go look at what the people who will be voting in the Republican primary in ‘12 think. Heck, just go over to Ross Douthat’s blog. They love her! They really really love her! They don’t think she’s any more corrupt than any other politician, they think she’s real, they think she’s a “true” conservative. If they cite drawbacks, it’s that she’s just not quite ready (but think she’ll get there!) and McCain is holding her back.
Starbursts abound.
October 23rd, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Huckabee, at this point, seems the strongest contender– not that it makes much sense talking about things 4+ years out.
The wingers love him as much as Palin, the theocons even more, the rest of the party doesn’t think he’s strictly an idiot, he’s not saddled with scandal and his part in a losing ticket, and his national negatives aren’t through the roof. Plus, unlike Palin he’s an actually gifted politician, and freakishly good on TV.
October 23rd, 2008 at 4:28 pm
It boggles my mind that two guys paid for their political blogging like MY and Ambinder can believe that Palin can be the frontrunner for any election outside of Alaska, and maybe not even there, after all the negative exposure she’s received.
Good point that I think has been overlooked. Palin has never received any votes outside of the state of Alaska yet.
My gut level guess is that the GOP has a lot of unresolved issues after this year. The theocons and the money crowd couldn’t agree on a candidate and so Mac snuck through. In 2012, they’ll either agree on a candidate or they will have a slugfest for the future of the party between a Huckabee type and a Gingrich type.
There’s no way that Palin emerges as the leader of either of the factions and she’s too divisive to be a W style fusion choice.
October 23rd, 2008 at 4:40 pm
No chance Palin gets the nod. By that time we will know even more about her and that is not good news for the Governor. Rudy scares me though. There is no politician that give me a more negative, visceral reaction than that fool. He capitalized on 9-11. He is a personal terror-profiteer. His community organizer comment made me almost punch my television.
October 23rd, 2008 at 4:42 pm
OK. Now can we stop talking about Sarah Palin?
October 23rd, 2008 at 4:57 pm
I think you’re all wrong. I think her political career will be ended sometime in 2009, in Alaska. The home crowd is going to shred her but good. She’ll be radioactive by the time the heavy fundraising cycle starts in 2010. Her destiny is to be a FoxNews pundit, no more and no less. Watch and see.
October 23rd, 2008 at 5:23 pm
I see Romney as the frontrunner. Huck and Palin will split the evangelical/people who hate Mormons vote. Leaving Romney to capture the whole moderate wing of the party. Then again, Pawlenty could surprise, he’s far more likable than Romney.
October 23rd, 2008 at 5:32 pm
The Republican Party usually gives its nomination to either a dour retread or a charismatic moron.
Really? I read somewhere or other that the Republican Party usually nominates the person whose “turn” it is.
In every primary race with the current president or the vice-president, he was nominated. In other primary races, the eventual nominees were a vice-president from further back (Nixon in 1968), a vice-presidential candidate from further back (Dole in 1996), the second-place finishers in the previous primaries (McCain today, Reagan in 1980), and Eisenhower, a war hero untainted by unpopular domestic policies. The only exception to this rule since World War II was Dubya himself.
Note that stupidity is no impediment for the nomination, no other plausible “next in line” candidate has a resume too much longer than Palin’s, and Petraeus is viable if and only if Iraq turns into rainbows and puppies. All in all, I’d say Palin is very likely to be the nominee in 2012. Not that it matters or we can possibly tell this far out, of course.
October 23rd, 2008 at 5:47 pm
I’ll say what I’ve been saying for a while: McCain, or rather the GOP, should’ve recognized McCain’s fortunes in the general and forcibly attached some no-future but potentially electable add-on like Mitt Romney. They should’ve written Palin a killer keynote address and told her to go back to Alaska and study real hard for 4 years. It worked for Obama.
October 23rd, 2008 at 6:16 pm
If I had to guess, I’d say Joe the Plumber will be the GOP nominee in 2012, and his surprise VP pick will be a platypus.
October 23rd, 2008 at 6:52 pm
This is coming a little late in the thread, but Howard Dean actually did support adding more troops into Iraq. He said that repeatedly during the debates. I always wondered if all the college students supporting him realized that.
Assuming Obama wins, my bet’s on Pawlenty for 2012. 1) He’s a new face, unassociated with either the GOP Congress or with the policy and electoral failures of the last few years. 2) The moneybags who determine the GOP nomination won’t have many problems with his economic philosophy. 3) The fundies won’t have many problems with his social philosophy. 4) He comes off as a regular guy all the while shafting regular guys. In other words, the kind of candidate that regular guys just can’t get enough of.
Possible problems with Pawlenty. 1) He’s a Yankee. No way around that one with “the fellers in the forks of the crick” as Huey Long used to call them. 2) Since the DFL has controlled the MN Senate for his entire governorship, and the DFL will have controlled the MN House during his second term, he’s had to make some compromises and sign into law some things that the GOP activists and Corner readers won’t like, such as an indoor smoking ban, a regional carbon emissions reduction scheme along with Wisconsin and Michigan, that one time he raised the cigarette tax and called it a “fee increase”, etc.
Of course, Ronald Reagan wasn’t a Southerner and had signed gun control statutes, a $1 billion tax increase, and liberalized abortion laws. The GOP base didn’t seem to notice or care, just like Dem activists — such as cemmcs — didn’t notice or care about the conservative aspects of Howard Dean’s governorship, or that Dean wanted to send more troops into Iraq upon taking office.
October 23rd, 2008 at 7:16 pm
When I first started seeing this meme I thought it was a joke. I still think it’s a joke, but in a different sense. I can’t believe this is even a possibility. Palin has become, after providing an initial (bizarre) bounce, an anchor around McCain’s neck. She will be absolutely stomped in 2012 if Obama wins with a Democratic supermajority in the Senate, though without the latter she will just be trounced. There’s no way, no way a pluarlity of Americans will ever see her as a better presidential candidate than Obama or any generic Democrat, just no way. Her candidacy would represent the GOP’s crash through rock bottom.
So I guess I hope she runs.
October 23rd, 2008 at 8:12 pm
how many non-incumbent or non-incumbent vp gop nominees since 1950 were “next in line” for the nomination? Let’s count.
Eisenhower – NO
Goldwater – NO
Nixon – Yes
Reagan – Yes
Dole – Yes
Bush II – NO
McCain – Yes
eh 4 out of 7 doesn’t seem to be that strong of a record to be drawing conclusion from and making predictions. Especially when the definition of “next in line” is vague enough to include both former losing vp nominees and former second place finishers in gop primaries. Romney has as much of a right to the title next in line as Palin does.
October 23rd, 2008 at 8:37 pm
Is there a market for this on Intrade? I’d wager a lot of money she’s nowhere near the real action in 2012.
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:23 pm
Scanning the posts, I don’t see the inevitable reply: that Matt’s reverse-Midas prognostication skills have guaranteed that Palin won’t even be Governor 2012, never mind the GOP frontrunner.
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:47 pm
Dean plays well to the base (of which you are obviously one), not the middle.
First, I am not part of “the base”. I would thought that was obvious but obviously, it’s not.
Second, it’s Bush’s war and he’s the incumbent. Does it really make sense to try to beat him by running a prowar candidate?
Third, what middle? Most of the country is to the left of the Democrats.
October 23rd, 2008 at 9:52 pm
I’m not sure on what basis you can assert that polling would support Palin as the nominee… In my personal unscientific experience of talking to some dedicated Republicans who’ve flipped to Obama, they are truly disgusted by her flippancy and total disregard for logic and facts. I think re-treading her will be extraordinarily more difficult than Ambinder might think.
October 23rd, 2008 at 11:20 pm
the reason a sexy vp gets the righties all rigid is that she’s ultimately a subordinate: she’s not the pres. she’s a glorified secretary. the office of the vice president and the cultural role of arm candy match very nicely; the only problem was that Palin is too aggressively stupid and couldn’t be kept as silent as necessary. a woman president would wilt wingnut wood. the palin presidental candidacy is a non starter.
October 24th, 2008 at 12:12 am
Seen his show? He’s packing on the pounds. In four years he’ll be over four clicks. Fat Huck isn’t salable.
October 24th, 2008 at 8:28 am
John from Concord @ 45 is the first one who gets it. Her political career ends in Alaska, and sooner rather than later. Say bye-bye to Barbie.
October 24th, 2008 at 10:53 am
eh 4 out of 7 doesn’t seem to be that strong of a record to be drawing conclusion from and making predictions. Especially when the definition of “next in line” is vague enough to include both former losing vp nominees and former second place finishers in gop primaries.
I forgot about Goldwater, and yeah, I guess it is a pretty vague definition. Still, the Republican nominee does seem more predictable and straightforward than the Democratic nominee has been over the same time period.
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