
Interesting Associated Press report on al-Qaeda’s thinking about the upcoming election:
The message, posted Monday on the password-protected al-Hesbah Web site, said if al-Qaida wants to exhaust the United States militarily and economically, “impetuous” Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain is the better choice because he is more likely to continue the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“This requires presence of an impetuous American leader such as McCain, who pledged to continue the war till the last American soldier,” the message said. “Then, al-Qaida will have to support McCain in the coming elections so that he continues the failing march of his predecessor, Bush.”
Now of course it would be silly for a voter to base his decision on a desire to spite al-Qaeda. The right thing to do is for everyone to reach an independent judgment about whose policies would best advance the public interest. This musing is, however, interesting:
“If al-Qaida carries out a big operation against American interests,” the message said, “this act will be support of McCain because it will push the Americans deliberately to vote for McCain so that he takes revenge for them against al-Qaida. Al-Qaida then will succeed in exhausting America till its last year in it.”
There’s no telling what al-Qaeda is actually capable of doing at this point. But it’s well-known that al-Qaeda does try to influence western elections. We saw it with the Madrid bombings before the Spanish elections, and then we saw it with the October 2004 bin Laden tape that the CIA believes was designed to boost George W. Bush’s re-election fortunes. Al-Qaeda members will probably be able to come up with something to do between now and Election Day to help push things in the direction they prefer.
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:40 am
Related: http://www.johannhari.com/archive/article.php?id=1380
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:40 am
I think we can expect commentary from the right along the lines of “Why would we listen to what they say?” – a clip that could be run along side the “terrorists heart Kerry” clips from 2004…
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:41 am
Yeah, it’s not as if George W Bush and the Republican Congresses have left the US Economy in such great shape that it can weather another Sept 11. Every day, more bad news comes out on the business news.
You can almost hear Bin Laden saying “Not yet. Wait for it …wait for it… ”
My guess is that Bin Laden is hiding out somewhere in western China just north of Afghanistan.
If I was an emerging superpower and I wanted to buy time to grow while the existing superpower declined, I could not think of a better situation to exploit than the election of a stupid-shit, hot-headed Texan with deep feelings of insecurity because of his high-achieving father.
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:45 am
Come to think of it, John McCain fits that profile. Except for the Texan part.
As Jay Leno noted, it’s not clear where John was born –the birth certificate was lost when the Indians attacked the wagon train.
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:46 am
Slightly o/t, but did anybody else notice:
“Al-Qaida then will succeed in exhausting America till its last year in it.”
Its last year in what? Does AQ have an exit strategy?
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:55 am
I think it’s a double bankshot. They’ve tried endorsing the guy they want to lose. This sounds like they’re trying to outflank us with a tricksy-tricksy move. They endorse the guy they want to win thinking that we’ll see it as an attempt to get Obama elected. Or not. Maybe they just want John “Endless War” McCain to get elected for the reasons they state. You never know.
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:57 am
Re “Al-Qaida then will succeed in exhausting America till its last year in it.”
———–
Fuck me. Does Al-Qaida have Matthew writing their fatwas now?
October 22nd, 2008 at 11:57 am
How odd, though. I mean, it’s Obama who insists that Bush and McCain haven’t take al Qaeda seriously enough, and that, given the opportunity as president, he’s going to significantly escalate the war in Afghanistan, and if Pakistan doesn’t cooperate, will unilaterally escalate US military operations against al Qaeda in Pakistan. Is al Qaeda not familiar with Obama’s rhetoric, or do they just think that, as with most other things he says, he’s just lying?
October 22nd, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Before anyone gets excited about this, realize that its basically just some commenter ranting on an Al Queda blog. Divining Al Queda’s motives from this is like doing election analysis based on something Petey said.
October 22nd, 2008 at 12:14 pm
If al-Qaeda knows they can impede a particular candidate or outcome through their actions or some kind of explicit message diatribe at the American voting public, then it would make sense for them to use false signals as part of “strategic voting” for a McCain outcome.
Is there evidence of this? It doesn’t appear so that I can see.
Though it must be said that al-Qaeda may weigh this against the competing imperative of playing up polarisation in the region by singling out Bush policy to inflate the brand and drive recruitment. Of course, some of it might just be personal indulgence for lambasting the Bush terms and his party.
October 22nd, 2008 at 12:16 pm
Poor Thomas (aboive): Obama means he will get the troops that our generals now say are needed because we are losing out to the Taliban because of our (Bush and gang) focus on Iraq…What Obama said was he would win that war because that is where the terrorists are and Bin Ladin is.
I have to assume that the terror-in-chief did not approve of this message since all we have is ramblings on a web site–the sort of ramblings we get on our own sites. And for sure the bad guys know that their password protected stuff is readily accessible to the Associated Press so that it might even be open to our intelligence people.
October 22nd, 2008 at 12:28 pm
fred lapides wrote,
Yes, but…speaking as someone who has given lots of money to Obama, thinks McInsane would be a disaster, etc, etc, the war in Afghanistan is almost certainly unwinnable. Look at the history of occupations of Afghanistan.
The only thing we should be doing is doing what we can do (which includes “get out of the region and keep our fingers crossed”) to ensure Pakistan doesn’t get destabilized. They have nukes, and many people high up in the ISI are nutjobs.
October 22nd, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Before anyone gets excited about this, realize that its basically just some commenter ranting on an Al Queda blog. Divining Al Queda’s motives from this is like doing election analysis based on something Petey said.
Hahaha. Funny because it’s true. But check out Al Queda Petey’s Intrade score, he knows what he’s talking about!
Just like a bad economy helps Democrats (not something they desire), a terrorist attack would help McCain, but I bet it wouldn’t be enough to beat Obama.
And Thomas is right about Obama and Pakistan. At least what Obama has said, we’ll see what he does.
Problem with the antiwar theory on all of this is that Al Queda has bascially lost in Iraq. If their plan was to draw the Zionist Crusaders in and sap them of their strength å la Vietnam, it didn’t work.
October 22nd, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Osama Bin Laden has said that his goal was to bankrupt the USA. George W. Bush has foolishly played right into Bin Ladens hand to help him achieve his goal. John McCain as president will foolishly continue to help Bin Laden achieve his goal!
Save our country! Vote for Obama/Biden!
October 22nd, 2008 at 12:34 pm
Tom Tomorrow took this on more than four years ago: http://dir.salon.com/story/comics/tomo/2004/04/05/tomo/
October 22nd, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Osama Bin Laden has said that his goal was to bankrupt the USA. George W. Bush has foolishly played right into Bin Ladens hand to help him achieve his goal. John McCain as president will foolishly continue to help Bin Laden achieve his goal!
Actually they want to rebuild the Muslim Caliphate and have Sharia law. I don’t see them being any close to that goal. Iraq seems better if fragile. Turkey has a moderate Muslim government that wants to join the European Union.
I am waiting for the antiwar people to make the same arguments about Afghanistan as they did about Iraq. Bombing civilian wedding parties is creating more terrorists! Afghanistan has nothing to with Al Qaeda! We just want Afghanistan’s oil! Matt was for the invasion and exploitation of Afghanistan! What a sellout!
October 22nd, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Peter, don’t be foolish. Most “anti-war” folks oppose Republican imperialism, not Democratic. For their team, they’ll put up with–or even actively support–almost anything. If Obama wants to pour American blood out in a hopeless cause in Afghanistan, it’ll be up to the loyal opposition to stop him.
October 22nd, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Peter and Thomas. Two wingnut trolls assigned to TP?
Progress!!
October 22nd, 2008 at 1:04 pm
If there is oil in Afghanistan it will sure be news to the Afghanis…
October 22nd, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Or they might try to influence our elections the old-fashioned way – with dirty campaign money:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/06/AR2008080602485.html
October 22nd, 2008 at 1:22 pm
So in other words, Thomas, you were all for the invasion of Afghanistan when it was B*sh’s initiative, but if Obama commits more troops there it will be “Pour[ing] American blood out in a hopeless cause”?
Thanks for clearing that up, mindless troll.
October 22nd, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Those are the bombings by the “Basque separatist ETAs,” right? How was that supposed to influence the Spanish election: did they know the government would be that inept in trying to blame the ETA?
(If you’re arguing it was an attempt to influence Spanish policy, that’s another question. But the election results didn’t depend on the bombing itself–they depended on the ineptitude and bald-faced lying in the sitting government’s response?
October 22nd, 2008 at 1:26 pm
[shrug]
AQ in Egypt endorsed Bush for reelection in 2004 and it didn’t make a ripple. Even FOX News covered it.
.
October 22nd, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Maybe they’re afraid he’d actually be competent, unlike Bush or McCain.
October 22nd, 2008 at 1:50 pm
I just wish they had been this transparent in 2004. Back then Bin Laden was critical of Bush, which led gullible “independent” voters to conclude that the he wanted Kerry, thereby swinging the election to Bush.
October 22nd, 2008 at 2:15 pm
First it was Joe The Plumber, now Joe The Terrorist endorses McCain. Except his name is Muhammad and there is some question about whether he’s really a licensed terrorist.
October 22nd, 2008 at 2:36 pm
While one wishes President Bush had been reading the Fable of the Briar Patch, the Boy who Cried Wolf, or Humpty Dumpty on 9/11, the issue of whom Al Qaeda wants isn’t of much consequence. It might be more important to consider what all the world seems to be telling us, insofar as we have become increasingly impotent on the world stage as a result of our political choices, but at this point Americans can add up 2+2. As terrible as 9/11 was, we have inflicted infinitely greater damage on ourselves in the kneejerk reaction to it. Bin Laden’s still out there; we’re mired in Iraq and Afghanistan; our economy is in the septic system, to which an unlicensed plumber, a small town mayor from a low population state, and an old operatic grouch with an axe in one hand and a missile in the other aren’t equal. The nation wants a change.
October 22nd, 2008 at 3:25 pm
“Now of course it would be silly for a voter to base his decision on a desire to spite al-Qaeda.”
Isn’t that exactly what the Reich-Wingers tried talking everyone into doing in 2004? Kind of funny how their real goal was to continue the presidency of GWB, aka The Arabian Candidate. AKA the former business partner of Usama Bin Laden’s brother.
Considering Precott Bush financed Hitler, it seems the apple doesn’t fall very far from the tree.
October 22nd, 2008 at 4:38 pm
I’d suggest you look at reports stating it will take years to rebuild the US military to effectiveness, the amount of treasure spent, our loss of any standing in the world, etc. It’s exactly what Al-Quaeda did to the USSR, and we’re still falling for it because of jingoists like you.
As for Afghanistan the war sold was to get in and kill Bin Laden, not remake Afghan society into a democracy (which it never has been). Perhaps if those demanding war constantly were better at it (Tora Bora? Failure to secure Iraqi weapons) your words wouldn’t be so laughable.
October 22nd, 2008 at 4:55 pm
Seems to me that we’re missing the point and that is that Al-Queda really has the potential to influence U.S. elections. That’s a pretty powerful proposition and says a great deal about the politics of fear.
Just a thought.
October 22nd, 2008 at 8:19 pm
Re: We saw it with the Madrid bombings before the Spanish elections
If the idea here is that Al Qaida prefers belligerent leaders to be in charge why would they have tried to get Aznar ousted, as happened? Unless their plot miscarried and produced the opposite reaction they were hoping for?
October 23rd, 2008 at 6:19 am
“Those are the bombings by the “Basque separatist ETAs,” right? How was that supposed to influence the Spanish election: did they know the government would be that inept in trying to blame the ETA?”
no al-quida bombed some trains in spain LINK: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6363149.stm
Im sure glad people remember history, ETA normally tries to avoid civilian casualties. I really hope there isnt another attack our economy cant survive another republican administration.
October 23rd, 2008 at 8:28 am
May I point out that a couple weeks ago, there were bombings at a Marriott Hotel in Kabul, and a rocket attack on an embassy in Yemen, both suspected of Al Qaeda; both happened in the last couple of months.
At the time my first instinct was to turn to the polls and watch Obama drop in numbers, watch Giuliani come back to the fore and drop the same numbers he always drops, and watch the fear develop again. But I suppose that since there weren’t very many Americans killed (what’s 16 embassy workers, or a Czech ambassador?) it didn’t draw people’s attention from the rest of the news.
December 3rd, 2008 at 11:46 pm
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December 15th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
On November 4, as Obama was celebrated for his election by 240,000 supporters at Chicago’s Grant Park, there was one man watching the event on television 10,000km away who was thrilled to hear the news. In a Tokyo apartment, his wife
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