Hope Springs Eternal
The conclusion of a Politico article musing about the prospect of Democrats picking up a ton of Senate seats this year closes with Republicans sounding an optimistic note: “‘2010 looks pretty good for us to pick up three or four or five seats pretty easily,’ the McCain official said.” Color me skeptical. These are the Democratic incumbents up for re-election in 2010:
- Bayh, Evan (D-IN)
- Boxer, Barbara (D-CA)
- Dodd, Christopher J. (D-CT)
- Dorgan, Byron L. (D-ND)
- Feingold, Russell D. (D-WI)
- Inouye, Daniel K. (D-HI)
- Leahy, Patrick J. (D-VT)
- Lincoln, Blanche L. (D-AR)
- Mikulski, Barbara A. (D-MD)
- Murray, Patty (D-WA)
- Obama, Barack (D-IL)
- Reid, Harry (D-NV)
- Salazar, Ken (D-CO)
- Schumer, Charles E. (D-NY)
- Wyden, Ron (D-OR)
Now various folks on this list could lose given a good GOP challenger and the right political climate. But in a generic sense, only Dorgan and Lincoln look like genuinely promising pickup opportunities here. Conversely, on the GOP side Sam Brownback has said he’s going to retire and even though Kansas is hardly the most Democratic-friendly state out there, you’ve got to figure that Kathleen Sebelius would be a pretty strong candidate. Jim Bunning, John McCain, and Arlen Specter all also strike me as fair chances to retire and the latter two, at least, would create very appealing pickup opportunities for the Democrats. Needless to say events between then and now will determine the actual outcome, but the basic shape of the landscape seems pretty even to me, certainly not something that would lead to a generic prediction of a 3-5 seat GOP pickup.
39 Responses to “Hope Springs Eternal”
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October 6th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
All B.S., as is everything that comes out of the McCain camp these days, but watch out for CA, as a termed-out Schwarzenegger will likely challenge Boxer.
October 6th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Jim Bunning, John McCain, and Arlen Specter all also strike me as fair chances to retire and the latter two, at least, would create very appealing pickup opportunities for the Democrats.
Ben Chandler is supposedly waiting until 2010 to run for Senate(It would explain his not challenging McConnell this year). Democrats in PA have Specter in their sights. Hopefully we can get an exceptional candidate, not one that is undermined by some unions(like what happened in ‘04). I am sure AZ Democrats are licking their chops at the prospect of McCain running again in ‘10. What a better way to send McCain packing then two consecutive humiliating defeats.
October 6th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Lincoln is incredibly safe. The Republican Party in Arkansas is in shambles, and she’s been relatively popular (mainly bc she’s been so conservative).
October 6th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Obama, Barack (D-IL)
Don’t think he’ll be up in ‘10. (otoh, his seat will)
More constructively, I think both Inouye and Mikuski have a good chance of retiring (the former more than the latter)
October 6th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
So who is going to get Obama’s Senate seat starting next year?
October 6th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
I notice you just take it as given that McCain’s choices for 2010 are to run for his Senate seat again, or just call it a career and retire. That seems about right–for the last week or two, Republicans have been more or less openly positioning themselves for 2010 and 2012. Expect to start reading comments about rodents and foundering ships in the editorial pages any day now.
October 6th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
I almost completely agree with you, but I would have to add Reid’s seat to the list of pickup opportunities for the GOP. Nevada is a swing state trending Dem, but is still close enough registration wise. Reid may be popular in the state today, but so was Daschle before he was targeted. Being a national party leader changes some of the dynamics. If the GOP can’t make serious gains in 2010, I expect them to focus some resources on the one big prize that would send a statement, and that would be Reid.
October 6th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
It seems to me there’s a good chance McCain will take his toys and go home if/when he loses in November. IE resign from the Senate.
October 6th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Mikulski will stick around until Martin O’Malley is done being governer. His first term would end in 2010, but he’ll probably run for another, so I think she will stick around. She might serve until 2016, or retire when O’Malley can run in a special election for Senate.
October 6th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
The GOP has four more seats at risk, and a whole bunch of them are at least potentially vulnerable, assuming good recruiting (which both the DCCC and the DSCC have done very well recently). Vitter in LA has to be at risk. Bond is extremely unpopular in MO. If Herseth challenges Thune in SD, that could be a very tight race. Isakson in GA has been rumored to be looking at a gubernatorial run. Strickland against Voinovich in OH could be close too. Plus likely retirements for Bunning (Chandler to replace), Brownback (Sebelius, Specter (Rendell), and McCain (Napolitano).
I’d actually been thinking “well, if the Dems can’t get over the 60-vote hump in ‘08, they should be able to do it in ‘10.” If Obama wins, that might make the landscape less favorable, as a president’s party usually loses ground in the midterms, but still the map is much more favorable than not. (2012, on the other hand, will be a very, very difficult year for the Dems in the Senate–23 seats at risk including Sanders, compared to 10 for the GOP including Lieberman.)
October 6th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
There are actually many problematic seats on the Republican side. Grassley is another possible retiree, and Iowa is pretty blue these days. Vitter has some issues, to say the least. Murkowski in Alaska may be bloodied up in a primary, Martinez may not survive without Bush coattails in Florida, Bond in Missouri could be in trouble if he gets a good challenger, same with Gregg in NH, and Burr in NC, and Thune in SD (e.g., Herseth Sandlin). Finally, Voinovich is the last of a dying breed in Ohio.
So I think you could make a better case right now for the Democrats +3-5, even granting the Republicans legitimate shots at turning a couple seats.
October 6th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
I reckon McCain is done. It’s looking as though the Dem caucus will have about 57+ votes in the Senate, and they should be able to do deals with the less-jerky Republicans such as Lugar/Hagel/
Collins to get past the filibuster threshold. That means there won’t be any market for McCain’s tired “bipartisan” posturing. And I think if he has to stick around and watch President Obama running the show he’s going to bust a blood vessel.
The best news of all is that after huge election defeats in 2006 and 2008, the Republican party probably still isn’t going to draw the obvious lesson that their policies need to change. Last time around their answer was to cling tighter than ever to Bush; this time they’re going to blame it on McCain for being insufficiently rightwing. So next time they’ll go even further to the right.
I don’t know how they ever turn this round. Maybe Gen Petraeus goes into politics ? I don’t like the guy myself, but he’s been treated as a demigod by Republicans and Democrats alike, and that might give him standing to forge a less-crazy Republican platform. Or maybe the blue dogs split
off and we get a realignment with a truly progressive Dem
party, a conservative business-friendly BlueDog/moderate Repub
party, and a neocon/theocon loony party.
October 6th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Your assuming that there will still be a releavant Republicans party around in two years. Given the large losses this year and the demographic handing writing on the wall, it is possible that the entire Republican Party could be gone by then.
When Republicans realize that they can have more effect on policy by voting in the Democratic Primary than as a Republican in the general election, the Republican party will quickly collapse.
October 6th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
What’s worth noting here is that the crop of candidates listed was elected in 2004. While it wasn’t 2002, it was a pretty strong Republican year–they were elected while the national wind was in their faces, and not at their back.
Barring some massive shift of voter rage at generic dems, these races will play out as your typical hard to beat incumbents. Will depend much more on local factors like personal scandal, doing right on local issues, if they have a genuinely strong challenger, etc.
October 6th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
The Hawaii seat could easily be endangered if Inouye retires. But yes, Dems have more good retirement opportunities than Republicans do.
October 6th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
There will eventually be a viable conservative party in the United States, but it is indeed an interesting question whether that will be the Republican Party. To put it bluntly, it is hard for me to see the party of Sarah Palin ever becoming viable, and yet that is exactly what I have seen some of the diehards in the GOP wanting (up to them talking about Palin replacing McCain in this election–I kid you not).
October 6th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Thrax, don’t fall into the trap of believing that every Governor wants to be a U.S. Senator, especially ones like Rendell and Napolitano who have spent their careers in city/state executive positions.
(Janet Napolitano as United States Attorney General for Pres. Obama sounds plausible, however).
(I also think promises were made to Barbara Hafer in PA that the field would be cleared for her in the likely event of a Specter retirement — she was nudged aside for Bob Casey in ‘06).
Ditto Martin O’Malley, on whose staff I’ve served, and there strikes me as no political personality type less suited to being 1 of 100. The Governor is close to Mikulski, but I doubt she’s just keeping the seat warm until he’s ready for it. If you’re looking for the next Democratic Senator from Maryland, Chris Van Hollen strikes me as the likeliest.
Unlike the other Govs, Strickland has been in Congress. But he can seek another 4 years in ‘10, not term-limited as I believe both Rendell and Napolitano are. Strikes me as unlikely that he’d beg off re-election to go looking for another office, especially since I think he’s pushing 70.
Agree with Boz about Reid in Nevada. That one could indeed be dangerous.
October 6th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
It’s pretty hard to see a scenario where Dorgan is vulnerable. He’s won by landslide margins the last three times he ran. He’s immensely popular. The current governor (Hoeven) is probably the only Republican who could give Dorgan a serious run, and he’s already declined to take on Kent Conrad.
October 6th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Kos has made detailed premature analysis of this, and sees the 2010 senate map as more favorable to Dems than 2006 or 2008 at this point–only 1-2 possible GOP pickups (with zero most likely unless Huckabee runs) while Napolitano could take out McCain, Wexler/Sink could take out Mel Martinez, Sebelius looks good, Grassley retirement would mean a dem pickup, Bunning looks pretty dead in the water, Missouri will be a battle, Judd Gregg is a good target, Ohio’s Voinovich is a hit, Specter isn’t that popular in PA any more, and North Carolina has an interesting possibility. So, if Obama’s approval numbers are good in 2010, 5-7 seats are well within reach.
October 6th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
The Hawaii seat could easily be endangered if Inouye retires.
Only if Lingle runs for it. My swag is that she’ll be going up against either (former rep) Chase or (rep) Abercrombie, (or possibly the current state senate majority leader) and it would be mighty close. But the Republicans in HI have no bench strengh. The Lt Gov Duke Aiona is about the only other figure known state wide, and he’s going to be the underdog in the next Gov race against Mufi. Is Duke Bainum a Republican? It’s hard to tell with all the honolulu municipal races being non-partisan
October 6th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Nobody’s mentioned the most vulnerable Democratic senator in 2010: Harry Reid, who’s never won big in Nevada and will be a more tempting GOP target than Tom Daschle was in 2004. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a retirement, especially if McCain is elected and Reid has to lead two more years of trench warfare with the White House.
How deep is the Democratic bench in Nevada?
October 6th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Janet Napolitano has already let it be known she’s running for McCain’s seat in 2010. Her PAC is already in place. She’s very popular so even if McCain runs again, she has to be considered the favorite. Most Arizonans think he won’t run.
October 6th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Well, Boxer is certainly vulnerable . . . except that defeating her would require that the California Republicans nominate someone who was less than super-extremely conservative. For example, Arnold would probably beat her easily.
Unfortunately, the luckiest politician in California will probably get to face a nut job again in 2010.
October 6th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
Assuming that Obama becomes President, it will be interesting who Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich appoints as Obama’s replacement.
Both Blago and Obama’s replacement will be up for re-election in 2010. In addition, as Patrick Fitzgerald’s office investigates the activities of Blagojevich and his administration more, the chances of Blagojevich being indicted on corruption charges increase day by day. (Tony Rezko, who will be senteced in a couple of weeks, has been talking to the feds a lot lately, and Rezko’s ties to Blagojevich were far greater than they ever were to Obama.) Even if Blagojevich escapes indictment by Patrick Fitzgerald, the spectre of corruption will haunt him if he tries to seek re-election to the Governor’s office, and his performance as governor has caused his approval ratings to tank even among Democrats. This Blago to vulnerable to both a strong primary challenge (in the form of Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan) and a strong general election challenge (from DuPage County State’s Attorney Joe Birkett).
Blago’s choice to replace Obama will depend on what the governor’s plans are for the 2010 election. If Blagojevich intends to run again for Illinois Governor, he will pick someone that will help him win re-election in 2010, such as Tammy Duckworth (an Iraq war veteran, the current director of the Illinois Dept of Veteran Affairs, and an Obama supporter) or Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr, or he will pick Madigan or Birkett in order to eliminate one of his strongest potential challengers for the governor’s office. If Blago decides not to run for re-election, he will pick himself or his wife Patti as Obama’s replacement.
October 6th, 2008 at 6:49 pm
Just to amplify BD’s point about Blanche Lincoln, the Arkansas Republican Party is so weak that it didn’t even field a candidate to run against Mark Pryor for his Senate seat this year. Now, I think that Pryor is so conservative that the Republicans should have just nominated him as their candidate as well, but he’s not conservative enough for the troglodytes of Northwest Arkansas who control the Republican Party here.
The Republicans couldn’t field a candidate because they don’t have anyone who’d be a serious candidate. Though I don’t think that Lincoln will go unopposed like Pryor, her opposition will be weak because Arkansas Republicans tend to be batshit crazy and tend to elevate their own if there’s a primary. Considering that Lincoln is fairly popular, I’d bet that Lincoln is reelected with at least 55% of the vote, if not more.
The only potential wildcard would be if Huckabee decided to run against Lincoln, in which case you could expect a toss-up. Keep in mind, though, that Huckabee is not that popular in Arkansas, having received only 53% of the vote in his last gubernatorial race against a Democrat who was a fairly lousy candidate.
October 6th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
re: The best news of all is that after huge election defeats in 2006 and 2008, the Republican party probably still isn’t going to draw the obvious lesson that their policies need to change. Last time around their answer was to cling tighter than ever to Bush; this time they’re going to blame it on McCain for being insufficiently rightwing. So next time they’ll go even further to the right.
That is not a good thing. I would very much like to see the USA host a sane and sensible conservative party along the lines of the Christian Democrat parties of Europe. I prefer my horror shows to be on DVD, not in the halls of Congress. And someday one of the current zombies or vampires might just get back in the White House again.
October 7th, 2008 at 4:19 am
If Blagojevich intends to run again for Illinois Governor, he will pick someone that will help him win re-election in 2010, such as Tammy Duckworth
Hawaii to Illinois: All your junior Senators are belong to us.
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