Matthew Yglesias » Financial Planning With NRO

Oct 6th, 2008 at 2:09 pm

Financial Planning With NRO

K-Lo does one of those “message from a reader” posts the Corner loves so dear:

Does the selloff on Wall Street have anything to do with the increasing likelihood that Obama will be our next president?

Note that the two trends — the financial meltdown, despite passage of the bailout, and the solidification of Obama’s lead — are coinciding. At a minimum, the market’s behavior is not a vote of confidence in an Obama presidency.

Does this mean that the stock market increases of the 1990s are definitive proof that Bill Clinton was the best president ever?

Comments
43

Filed under: Economy, National Review,

43 Responses to “Financial Planning With NRO”

55 Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
I’d be surprised if the stock market doesn’t go up no matter what on 11/5.
Boot Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Clearly, they were investing so faithfully because they knew George W. Bush would be elected in 2000.
Morten Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Boot beat me to it … it is obvious. And the downturn since 2000 is obviously as a result of the market dreading the day dubya is no more.
liberal venom Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
it’s believing that people with umbrellas bring about rain, since there’s more rain when people carry around umbrellas
it’s like saying swaying trees cause wind
it’s like saying hospitals should be shut down because too many people die in them
it’s confusing cause and effect
it’s foolish stupid idiotic moronic retarded
welcome to the Great Old Party.
Mark D Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Oh, I wanna play the “False Coincidence” game!!

The stock market is tanking today because the Chiefs got their asses handed to them yesterday in Carolina.

A guy was murdered in Detroit yesterday because it was sunny and in the 80s in Hawai’i.

Somewhere, a puppy died at the same time Sarah Palin made her 10th lie during the debate, thus proving that every time Palin lies, a puppy dies.

This is fun …
Just Another Greg Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
And the burst in the housing market bubble that launched this whole mess over a year ago was… also “not a vote of confidence in an Obama presidency?” Of course! Makes perfect sense now.
Just Another Greg Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
I’ll also note that since Obama’s numbers have gone up we have seen a decrease in shark attacks. So really it’s a wash.
Don Williams Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
1) These snarks don’t lessen the fact that the Democrats are doing nothing to hang this disaster around the necks of the Republicans.

2) Cowardice doesn’t help — it only encourages the Republican bullies. Biden treated Sarah Palin with courtesy in the debate — and now the bitch is out howling about Obama “palling around with domestic terrorists.”

3) I warned Matthew’s readers back in Dec 2006 –when they were rejoicing over the Democratic victory — that the inverted yield curve was forecasting a recession starting around the end of 2007 — and that that recession would be hung around the Democrats neck if they did nothing.

Was I wrong?

http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2006/12/the_sweet_sweet_fed.php#comment-119132
rapier Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
It was exactly 4 years ago that the DOW went back above 10,000, right ahead of the election. That was pretty handy for Bush and the GOP but only fools thought there was a causal relationship.

The mortgage credit machine and the dollar recycling machine were firing on all cylinders at the time so it was up up and away. There was actually not a single signal from Kerry or the Democrats that they were going to mess with the real estate wealth or Wall Street money machines. There was no difference between the parties on this.

Woe be it for anyone elected or selected president next month.
Adam Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
“Was I wrong?”

Yes. You’re horribly, completely wrong. You must be missing the poll numbers go up the worse the market gets. The party in the White House *always* gets blamed for a bad economy, and the Republican failure in the bailout vote cemented it. We’re looking at a landslide and 60 senate seats at this race, and you’re whining every step of the way.

You’re honestly worse than Petey. You’re constantly hysterical. Enjoy the best election for Democrats in a very long time. Or don’t. But at least shut up.
Angellight Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Corporate-owned media falls in line with McCain’s smear assault

Interesting, isn’t it? On the very day that the McCain campaign is to begin its “Obama is a terrorist” swiftboat-style smear assault, the New York Times leads with a story outlining Obama’s non-relationship-relationship with 70s era radical William Ayers. The New York Times concluded, as have all the many reports relating to the subject; the New York Times’ piece concluded that Obama did not and does not have ties to Ayers. But, wait! Interesting, too, that ALL THREE CORPORATE-OWNED NETWORKS continued the discussion on Sunday—that is interesting, isn’t it?

This Ayres-Obama smear has been debunked ten times over. So, why is the corporate-owned media continuing to play it up? Why are they doing the McCain campaign’s dirty work even when they know it is all a lie?

That is simple! The corporate-owned media is doing what their corporate masters want them to do. Corporate America is terrified—scared out of their minds that the American people are going to make the Democratic candidate, Obama, their president and, too, give the Democrats filibuster proof majorities in both houses of congress. The corporations understand what that would mean for them—they know that the people are really pissed off for having to handover a trillion dollars to Wall Street and corporate greed-merchants. The corporations know that the American people are going to want changes to the system! The corporations know that the American people are going to demand an end to the greed-driven trickle down three card monte-like scheme that has been imposed upon them!

Understand, the McCain campaign’s “Obama is a terrorist” swiftboat smear assault is being demanded by and propagated by corporate America. Corporate America knows that their only hope for maintaining power is to destroy Obama and to catapult their guy, their very old geezer, John McCain, into the Oval Office. So, it is interesting to see the corporate-owned press begin and to continue McCain’s “Obama is a terrorist” swiftboat smear assault, but it isn’t happening by accident—it is by design! This is corporate America’s way of ensuring that the Democrats won’t control all three levers of representative government. Interesting how it works, isn’t it?

(ProgressiveDailyBeacon.com)
taters in the ground Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
Nothin’ been right since them satchellites was fired by the Ruskies. You betcha.
Don Williams Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
Re Adam “Enjoy the best election for Democrats in a very long time ”
———–
1) For John McCain to be this close to Obama under these circumstances is a sign of gross Democratic incompetence.

2) The electorate need to be clearly and firmly convinced –with rock solid certainty — that this disaster is the fault of the Republicans.

3) Else whatever marginal “victory” is obtained in this election will be shortlived –two years hence, a revived Republican Party will be howling about “the Democrat Depression”.

4) I think part of the reason Democratic leaders are so ineffectual is their lack of passion. And cowardice.

They really don’t seem to feel a sense of outrage when the common citizens –their alleged constituents — are screwed badly.

5) It’s almost as if the leadership doesn’t object to HOW the Republicans run things –grossly inequitable income distribution, crony capitalism,etc.

Rather the Democrats’ complaint is merely that THEY are not the ones in charge.

6) Their idea of “leadership” is to hang around, make trival sniping snarks, and wait for the Republicans to screw up. At which time, the voters will have no choice but to coronate the Democrats in waiting.

So the Democratic leaders don’t feel a need to actually ACCOMPLISH anything — they feel they merely have to show up.
cube Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
She has cause and effect reversed. Not surprising.
DMonteith Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
Enjoy the best election for Democrats in a very long time…

Shorter Don Williams: No!
jonas Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Does this mean that the stock market increases of the 1990s are definitive proof that Bill Clinton was the best president ever?

No, because the run-up in the stock market in the late 90’s was clearly in anticipation of the end of the Clinton administration. Traders were so looking forward to a Republican in 2000 that they could hardly contain themselves, sending the Dow to record highs.
AlanC9 Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
Don, the problem with your proposed arguments is that there’s no real evidence that people want to buy what you’re selling. Income inequality per se doesn’t bother most Americans much. Polling data’s made that clear for a long time. It’s also made a number of other depressing things clear; for instance, keeping the Bush tax cuts is the plurality position even now, when anyone who’s been paying attention knows the tiny percentage of Americans who benefit from them.

You should learn from the Republicans. Don’t confuse your actual policy goals with your marketing points.
Jay Andrew Allen Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
The market’s rallying right now. Does that mean there was a sudden reversal in the polls for McCain?

I’ll go with Barry Ritzholz here: reading political conclusions into market activity is simplistic. But hey, it *is* National Review.
cmholm Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
Don Williams: For John McCain to be this close to Obama under these circumstances is a sign of gross Democratic incompetence.

…or, it might be because:
1) One of the candidates is hapa-Negro.

2) What Cass Sunstein said. Because of this, for the foreseeable future, National elections are going to always be close, no matter what fool a Party nominates.
Warren Terra Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
No, it’s a conspiracy: by driving down the market prior to Obama’s inaguration, the dreaded Wall Street Bankers are making it more likely the the stock market will see significant gains during Obama’s presidency. It’s all George Soros’s fault! Someone email K-Lo!
Don Williams Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
1) I draw a strong distinction between Republican leaders and Republican voters. I think the leaders are evil , hopelessly corrupt and should be destroyed.

2) I think part of the Republican voters could be turned against the Republican leaders if the Democrats made a effort. But they don’t.

3) Howard Dean had to fight a holy war with Rahm Emmanuel and other Democrats over the 50 state strategy. As the NY Times noted, there are about 150 or so large donors who see the Democratic Party as their own private club and who were happy with a system in which Democratic Politicans have to come to them and beg for money needed to run TV ads in big coastal urban areas.

If the Middle of the USA are Red States, it’s because those people were abandoned a long time ago. To lying TV evangelists and Fox News.

Democratic leaders figure that if you convince California, New York City, and Florida to vote for you, then you rule the world.

And you don’t have to make compromises on behalf of that annoying national interest.

That short-sighted attitude will ultimately destroy the USA –we are getting closer to a civil war.
Don Williams Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
Franklin Roosevelt was hated by the Superrich — but they were small in number.

Try managing the social unrest of a Second Great Depression when half the voters are convinced that the President is evil and is their implacable enemy. NO matter WHO is elected President.
AlanC9 Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
No arguments on point 1, Don. Although I get the feeling that a fair percentage of the leadership is badly deluded rather than corrupt, they have to go regardless.

As for point 2, I’ll have to ask how you think this can be done. Outright economic populism? I don’t see it working.

Point 3 is more a muddle than a point. Are you making something like Thomas Frank’s argument?
TBone Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Your sarcasm implies an expectation that conservative republicans have a plus-1 rated foresight.

If they were able to think anything halfway through, I don’t think we’d be in this mess!
Nara Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Even the rest of NRO does not take this clown seriously. I consider myself slightly right of center but the clowns that write for NRO today are not conservative in any sense.
They are just radicals from the right.
Don Williams Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Re AlanC9’s comment “As for point 2, I’ll have to ask how you think this can be done. Outright economic populism? I don’t see it working. ”
————-
1) What needs to be done is a liberal counter to Fox News and Rush Limbaugh which goes on the Attack –which exposes how Fox News and Rush Limbaugh Actively BETRAY, Deceive and Lie to their listeners in the Red States. That media group wouldn’t even have to be actively tied to the Democratic Party — it just needs money.

2) Some factions within the Social Conservatives have a LOT more in common with a progressive economic policy than they have in common with Wall Street Republicans. Read Matthew 25:41-46. Jesus was practically a Commie. That’s why he beat the living shit out of the bankers with a whip. An idea that has gained greatly in appeal recently.

2) PLus recognize that some Democrats actively sabotage the Democratic Party in order to strengthen their faction within it.

There was no need for Chuck Schumer to alienate blue collar union workers by aggressive gun control in the Clinton administration. Especially when economic justice/education/jobs would do far more to alleviate urban gun violence than unenforceable gun control laws.

But reducing gun deaths wasn’t Chuckie concern — his concern was magnifying the influence of certain billionaires within the Democratic party by removing some of the union money pots.
Will Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
How dare that anonymous reader steal Kudlow’s original analysis without attribution?
Don Williams Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
For an account of the attacks made on DNC Chairman Howard Dean — when he tried to make the Democratic Party representative of all the people in all 50 states —
see http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/01/magazine/01dean.html?scp=6&sq=rahm%20emanuel%20howard%20dean%20October%202006&st=cse

An excerpt:

“For the Democrats, winning presidential elections came to mean doing so without any help from the South or West, and that, in turn, meant cobbling together a relatively small number of so-called battleground states rather than running a truly national campaign. The D.N.C. quit doing much of anything in conservative rural states, and the party’s presidential candidates didn’t bother stopping by on their way to more promising terrain. Every four years, the national party became obsessed with “targeting” — that is, focusing all its efforts on 15 or 20 winnable urban states and pounding them with expensive TV ads. The D.N.C.’s defining purpose was to raise the money for those ads. The national party became, essentially, a service organization for a few hundred wealthy donors, who treated it like their private political club. “
Jose Padilla Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Nah, this is the flip side of the growth during the Clinton years was caused by Ronald Reagan’s tax cuts.
Tyro Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
the clowns that write for NRO today are not conservative in any sense.

Um, I would disagree. Look, just because you’re conservative, and you like conservatives, does not mean that everyone you dislike is automatically not conservative. You can call them idiots and doofuses, but they’re certainly conservative idiots and doofuses.
pseudonymous in nc Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 8:37 pm
Don, you really think that Obama should be winning by LBJ-Goldwater numbers, or Nixon-McGovern numbers, or Clinton-Dole numbers? All of which had a sitting president seeking re-election on one side?

He’s looking to be heading towards Daddy Bush-Dukakis territory right now, without Daddy Bush’s Veep incumbency. That, given the partisan splintering of media sources (part of Sunstein’s argument back in 2004) and a national political media that wants to perpetuate the idea of a 50-50 split, would be quite something.
Don Williams Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
We’ll see. I think that Obama either needs to open up a bigger lead or stir up his base.

Else he runs the risk of what killed Al Gore — somewhat more approval than Bush but supporters who don’t get off their asses and go vote.
mad6798j Says:
October 6th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
Don, Gore was down in most of the polls just before election day. His voters did go to the polls, in greater than expected numbers, and made up the difference.
writkat Says:
October 7th, 2008 at 2:29 am
Evidently, K-Lo has yet to understand the elementary concept that correlation does not necessarily imply causation.
JonF Says:
October 7th, 2008 at 6:49 am
Re: These snarks don’t lessen the fact that the Democrats are doing nothing to hang this disaster around the necks of the Republicans.

They don’t have to. The vultures on this one know exactly where to go home to roost.

Re: Corporate America is terrified—scared out of their minds that the American people are going to make the Democratic candidate, Obama, their president

Hardly. Corporate America is about fed up with George Bush too. He has not exactly been great for business. The days when the GOP was a reliably pro-business party are in the past. That doesn’t mean corporate America is turning to the Dems, but at this point they have no candidate at all they can hope for.

Re: For John McCain to be this close to Obama under these circumstances is a sign of gross Democratic incompetence.

Nope. It’s a sign that racism still percolates under the surface.

Re: The electorate need to be clearly and firmly convinced –with rock solid certainty — that this disaster is the fault of the Republicans.

Check out the latest poll numbers. Obama is building a blow-out lead in electoral votes and the Dems have six more Senate seats sewed up and five or six more in reach. The electorate seems convinced.

Re: two years hence, a revived Republican Party will be howling about “the Democrat Depression”.

Didn’t work for the party of Herbert Hoover (who was at least an honest and intelligent man) in the 30s and it won’t work for the party of George Bush today.

Re: You can call them idiots and doofuses, but they’re certainly conservative idiots and doofuses.

In a very important senmse the American Right is NOT conservative: rather, it is radical.
cialis Says:
March 1st, 2009 at 6:58 pm
cialis
Incredible site!
viagra Says:
March 11th, 2009 at 4:51 am
If you have to do it, you might as well do it right
tramadol Says:
March 17th, 2009 at 2:30 am
It is the coolest site,keep so!
tramadol
brand viagra Says:
April 2nd, 2009 at 5:29 am
I want to say – thank you for this!
buy cheap viagra
cheap viagra Says:
April 9th, 2009 at 6:48 am
Very interesting site, Hope it will always be alive! viagra

Matt Yglesias

Financial Planning With NRO

43 Responses to “Financial Planning With NRO”

Blogroll