Oct 18th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
Early Night?
Everyone’s used to late night election calls after 2000 and 2004. But consider these Virginia and Indiana close at 7PM Eastern, Ohio closes at 7:30PM Eastern (the portions of Indiana in Eastern Time actually close at 6PM) and then Florida closes at 8PM Eastern with the vast majority of the state (the non-panhandle part) closing at 7PM Eastern. In practice, McCain needs to win all four of those states to have a shot at the election, and he’s currently behind in three of them. It’d still take a while before anyone concedes anything, and political junkies will want to see Senate outcomes in Alaska and Oregon, but it’s very possible that the country will basically know the outcome of the presidential election pretty early.
35 Responses to “Early Night?”
Register
RSSLogin
Advertisement
Visit Our Affiliated Sites
Books By Matthew Yglesias
Topic CloudView topics sorted by popularity
Abortion
Afghanistan
Basketball
Blanche Lincoln
Budget
China
climate
Congress
Crime
DC
Demographics
Economics
Economy
Energy
Environment
EU
Finance
Football
Gender
Health Care
History
Inequality
Infrastructure
Intellectual Property
International Law
International Relations
Israel
Media
Monetary Policy
National Security
NBA
Palestine
Political Reform
Public Health
Public Opinion
Race
Regulation
Sarah Palin
Sports
Stimulus
Sweden
taxes
Technology
Trade
transportation
Featured
Subscribe to the Progress Report
Contact Matthew Yglesias
Use this form to contact blog author Matthew Yglesias.
ArchivesBlog RollAbout Matt YglesiasContact Me
Donate
October 18th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
Don’t count your chickens …
October 18th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
You’re probably right, and it’s a bit of pity. It would be exciting to have a race that’s so close that we have to watch all night to know who wins.
October 18th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
Yup! That’s what folks said in 2000. Dems need to get out in full force in every state to insure victory for Obama and the rest of the Dems in downticket races.
October 18th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Racism will overcome in OH, NC, VA, and MO. Old people/shenanigans will cost him FL. Then all the Republicans have to do is steal CO and they win.
As you can see, I am forever a pessimist.
October 18th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
You jinxed it! Now I am totally not going to get any sleep that night.
October 18th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
I don’t have to wait until then to know the result – it is going to be a victory for McCain/Palin by a narrow margin and I am not a Republican or a wingnut. Why do you think that NORCOM has been assigned a brigade combat team? It is present to apply “shock and awe” to anyone who protests the stolen election.
October 18th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Gee, I hope it’s an early night. I’m four hours behind EST and was still planning to host an election party. So even if we know as early as 9 pm EST, that’s still 1AM our time. Maybe I should just plan to make it a slumber party.
October 18th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
I’m four hours behind EST and was still planning to host an election party. So even if we know as early as 9 pm EST, that’s still 1AM our time.
Uh, if you’re four hours behind EST, wouldn’t that make it 5 PM your time when it’s 9 PM EST?
October 18th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Polls out here in Hawaii don’t close until 6 PM, which will be 11 PM East Coast time. My wife and I are going to be doing GOTV, so we won’t have the joy of watching the talking heads clucking their tongues all evening about the Obama landslide. But we are going to set the DVR so we can watch as we celebrate after we get home!
October 18th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
So even if we know as early as 9 pm EST, that’s still 1AM our time.
As Just Dropping By points out, this doesn’t seem likely unless you’re having an election party in Ittoqqortoormiit. Or Cape Verde, but Ittoqqortoormiit is much more fun to copy and paste.
Actually there doesn’t seem to be a lot that’s four hours the other way from EST, either — Alaska and that’s about it. But I could easily be making a dumb mistake involving daylight savings or something.
October 18th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
And, man, that sucks for us here in Washington. Our Gov race couldn’t be tighter, and every Dem who doesn’t bother to vote because Obama’s already won…ouch.
October 18th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
No way that I watch a single minute of the returns. If Obama were to win, I’d find out soon enough. If McCain wins, it’ll just be 4 more years of wondering “Death, where is thy sting?”
October 18th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
The problem in the last couple elections was not that we were waiting for polls to close but that the states were too close to call and we had to wait for the count.
October 18th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
In addition to Virginia, Ohio and Indiana, McCain also has to win Florida, North Carolina and Missouri in order to have a chance. Right now, Obama is ahead in all of the those states except Indiana. McCain doesn’t have enough time or money to come back in all of those state, therefore it is very likely we’ll know the outcome of the election by 8 EDT.
October 18th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
blowback
sure, sure yeah, the military want a theocrat in charge. please, these men are serious palin isn’t and they understand…
so, back in the real world…
October 18th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
I don’t mean to be insulting, Matt, but that argument’s really dumb. Ohio and Florida will be the clinchers again, and NOBODY will be calling either of those until they’re well over half reporting.
On top of that, Cincinnati’s BoE hasn’t BEGUN counting until after midnight in the last 3 elections–and 2 of those were just for city council!
Finally, election day shenanigans this year will put the past 2 cycles to shame. I wouldn’t be all that surprised if we have Ohio machines that don’t get to the Board until the next morning. And Cincinnati will not START counting until they’re all in.
October 18th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Uhh, I thought they couldn’t call it until voting was finished EVERYwhere. Does that only mean the entire election or can they also not call individual states that would make the election outcome obvious? I mean, its kind of stupid to not be able to call the election but call, say, Virginia and Florida for Obama, which is basically the same thing. Assuming he wins those of course. What IS the agreement the networks have on this?
October 18th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
5 p.m. in Alaska is 9 p.m. on the east coast, so an early and definitive showing in OH, NC, VA, FL should influence the Alaska race.
A lot of Alaskan’s main concern is “what will our rep bring home to Alaska” and a clear Obama victory (if its not already clear) will cause some to consider Begich the “smarter choice” than Stevens. (Those outside of Alaska my not understand the support for Stevens, but he has a long history of doing real good here (yes by getting earmarks, but earmarks that help things like rural Alaska healthcare) and he’s been good in fisheries policies, is pro-choice, and stood up to Jesse Helms, etc. He has however (in my opinion) been corrupted by too “cozy relationships” (including obviously with the oil industry). Don Young, on the other hand …. don’t get me started!)
Currently Begich (Senate candidate) is 4-5 points ahead – he was 15 points ahead before Palin was selected. I don’t know if that was because there were suddenly far more Republican “likely voters” (McCain came in 4th in the Republican caucus in Alaska behind Romney, Huckabee and Paul) or because the Alaskan’s decided Steven’s would have an “in” with a McCain/Palin administration.
Just an Alaskans perspective on the race. (McCain/Palin will at least do worse in Alaska than Bush (who got 70%) which is amazing with an Alaskan VP on the ticket.)
October 19th, 2008 at 1:14 am
As Sherrod says: we in Washington state really need to defeat Dino Rossi and reelect Chris Gregoire for Governor. So, the message for Democrats in WA isn’t “never mind, it’s over.” It’s “get out and vote; be a part of history.”
If Dino Rossi wins, I bet he’ll become a national player for the Reeps. For us in Washington, he and his rightwing building industry patrons will kill any progressive steps towards more transportation choices, good climate policies and Puget Sound clean-up, and a whole host of other things we need to protect and improve the quality of life in our state. I’m helping Chris Gregoire by taking vacation time off to volunteer and giving as much money as I can. I hope everyone else does whatever they can to.
October 19th, 2008 at 2:14 am
They wait to announce winners of each state after the west coast polls close. At least that is what had been agreed upon for the last several elections because when they were calling the states before the west coast polls closed years ago it depressed turnout. We here in California raised a big stink about this problem.
I so hope they do not change back.
October 19th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Just Dropping By and Matt Weiner:
Whoops–I meant four hours ahead of EST. I’m on GMT in Morocco.
October 20th, 2008 at 12:58 am
The rub here, if Matt is right, is down-ticket races in Western states. Obama is the big draw for Democrats and if the turnout is dampened by the perception that he has already won — or lost — Dems may lose local races, state legislatures, school districts, that sort of thing.
Hope the networks will control themselves and report actual counts, not projections, until the polls close everywhere.
December 6th, 2008 at 11:31 pm
As a portly woman plodded ahead of him on the sidewalk, the obese mayor of America’s fattest and unhealthiest city explained why health is not a big local issue.
December 7th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
The Media Research Center’s Brent Bozell, like NRO’s John Derbyshire , is probably someone I should ignore now that it’s finally morning in America, for the rest of us. But Bozell’s latest outburst is useful in pointing up the complete
March 1st, 2009 at 9:45 am
viagra
Very interesting site. Hope it will always be alive!
March 11th, 2009 at 8:39 am
Very interesting site. Hope it will always be alive!
March 13th, 2009 at 4:50 am
Excellent site. It was pleasant to me.
March 17th, 2009 at 3:24 am
Very interesting site. Hope it will always be alive!
tramadol
March 22nd, 2009 at 7:23 am
tramadol
If you have to do it, you might as well do it right
March 22nd, 2009 at 11:19 am
buy viagra online
Excellent site. It was pleasant to me.
April 14th, 2009 at 10:57 am
Very interesting site, Hope it will always be alive!
viagra