Big Bucks
Sam Stein: “One official close to the campaign said that September’s fundraising haul set a new record, surpassing the $66 million Obama raised in August. Another aide, asked about the campaign’s take, would only describe it: ‘big.’”
I’ll say that during Sunday’s Redskins-Rams game, there were Obama ads in pretty heavy rotation and no McCain ads whatsoever. Virginia’s a tough state to advertise in. It has several medium sized media markets (Norfolk area, Richmond, Roanoke) then a couple of small ones (Harrisonburg, and Charlottesville) but bigger than any of those are the Virginia portions of the DC media market — a big market and one that contains a huge number of people who aren’t eligible to vote in Virginia. It’s the kind of place where you could see a financial edge making a big difference.
33 Responses to “Big Bucks”
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October 13th, 2008 at 12:21 am
I assume you meant “no McCain ads”.
I think Yglesias has pretty much settled into letting us be his copy editors, which, if such is the case, might mean we qualify for a piece of his new, blog-gotten real estate in fancy, Trust-fund-scummy DC.
October 13th, 2008 at 12:22 am
there were Obama ads in pretty heavy rotation and no ads whatsoever.
Charming.
October 13th, 2008 at 12:49 am
Just heard the news that Todd Palin is now scheduled for at least two days of appearances in far northern Minnesota the end of this week. There are no major cities in northern Minnesota; in addition, it votes more Democratic than any other region of the state. I had no idea the GOP considers him that big a liability!
Minneapolis has Obama ads on broadcast AND cable. One’s the health care centrist ad, two ads take down McCain’s health insurance tax and inadequate tax credit. McCain is running two dark and ominous negative ads, one with Ayers and Obama headshots, one that seems aimed at a “Seven”/”Silence of the Lambs” demographic: with its grainy, sepia toned photos and heavy use of black borders. Since McCain isn’t even really competitive in Minnesota now–if he ever was–why are they wasting his money here instead of spending it in Virginia? Welfare for Republican ad agencies?
October 13th, 2008 at 12:54 am
I’ve seen Obama’s tax ad 12 times today. I live in rural south Georgia. I’d guess they’re just national buys, but still..wow.
October 13th, 2008 at 12:55 am
I love that progressives are finally understanding the benefits of playing a little dirty sometimes. Back when Obama broke his promise on public funding we had an opportunity to reflect, think about “what if a republican had done this?” We passed, choosing instead to high-five over the saturation level of Obama ads in battleground states. There should be a word for when cynicism is a breath of fresh air.
October 13th, 2008 at 1:01 am
The expanded map has some interesting consequences as far as media-market overlaps are concerned. You’ve mentioned the VA/DC overlap. There’s also IN/IL — competing for northern Indiana means spending money in the Chicago market, and competing in NC means spending some money in SC.
Since McCain isn’t even really competitive in Minnesota now–if he ever was–why are they wasting his money here instead of spending it in Virginia?
Those particular ads are technically co-productions with the RNC, which doesn’t have the public funding caps, even if it goes against the spirit of, um, McCain-Feingold. (There’s a token reference to Dems in Congress at the end.)
October 13th, 2008 at 1:06 am
I was seeing the same thing out here in SoCal throughout the sporting weekend:
A number of Obama ads through the college football games on Saturday, which I watched from the OK-TX game (12 PM ET start) through the evening games (roughly 11:30 PM ET end). No McCain ads that I recall.
On Sunday, there were Obama ads on the early games, the late games and the prime time game. A very good number of them, including one cycled for the break right before kick off on the prime time game. No McCain ads that I can recall.
Out here in SoCal, we’re seeing very view local Obama ads. After all, the state is “won” for Obama. So all of these were national network ad buys. Not cheap, and they certainly weren’t buying one or two of them. A very good number of them.
Matt points to VA, and that’s valid. I think these have a lot of benefits. We had the ATL-CHI game this morning. That game no doubt drew big ratings in the ATL where the Falcons are one of the early season good stories with Ryan at QB. Fantastically exciting game too down to the wire.
So think about that ad in terms of GA. Right now, McCain has the GA lead. But it’s trending *downward* for him. There’s a tightening Senate race.
It’s still a longshot. But NC and Indiana looked like a longshot a month ago. We’ve got 20 days left, and at the rate the election map is changing, these ads can help in GA.
To win GA?
Perhaps not, though if the wave gets big enough, perhaps so.
But at the very least to force McCain to play defense there with his limited resources. And also for the RNC and the GOP congressional commetites to plunge more money into the state trying to save Chambliss.
It’s an amazingly effective use of money *if* you’re playing on a big board, and if you have the money to throw into it. You can hit all sorts of parts of the country with these ads, in a sense building a “base” of ads to build the local buys upon. The ads I saw were general ones that work everywhere. Following in behind them would be the local ones, hitting hot button issues in specific states.
They’re running a really smart campaign.
John
October 13th, 2008 at 1:10 am
Yep… exactly what I’m talking about. National buys hit everywhere. They don’t mean a thing here in SoCal. At this point they may be overkill in Minnesota, though they are a postive of keeping the positive push on in that state to keep it out of reach. But these ads are hitting NC, Indy, OH, PA, FL, GA… everywhere. It gets the Obama message out, and forces McCain and the RNC to try to patch leaking holes all over the map.
John
October 13th, 2008 at 1:16 am
My comment was directed to the fact that these were local buys, not just national. The local cable blocks, the 10 o’clock news–I feel it’s wasted GOP dollars given what more they have in play. Minnesota? Na ga happen.
October 13th, 2008 at 1:18 am
For what it’s worth, there are a great many McCain ads on the air here in Pittsburgh — and thus in much of Western Pennsylvania, a chunk of Eastern Ohio and perhaps a sliver of West Virginia.
One where a woman sneers in the voice-over about “how dishonorable” Obama has been to the troops (it feature a two second out-of-context clip of Obama discussing civilian casualties in Afghanistan, the implication being that he sees our soldiers as baby-killers) is especially prominent. A truly despicable piece of work.
There are two others that flirt with racism (Obama’s face strangely tinted cutting to a picture of a blonde woman holding her child while the voice over decries liberals in congress or something — I don’t recall exactly; one where a smirking African-American with a moustache is shown as an example of Obama’s complicit corruption with, I believe, Fannie Mae), but neither is anywhere near as prominent as the “How dishonorable” one where the viewer is invited to share in the rage and indignation at the loathsome canidate who slanders our troops. That’s clearly the one the Republicans have been putting their chips on. At least for this region of the country.
Someone really should link to it — I haven’t the stomach. Perhaps one of you could e-mail Matt (as, ahem, the lad doesn’t seem to actually read his comments) and he could embed it. Has to be seen to be believed.
And, of course, these ads ran all the while McCain had “suspended” his campaign.
At least for the commercial broadcast TV I watch — news, the NFL, late-night — McCain ads seem to be more frequent than Obama ones. This has come as something of (an unsettling) surprise to me.
Perhaps there will be more Obama ads to coincide with the block of TV time they’ve bought and the run-up to the actual election. I certainly hope so, regardless of how comforting the polls may seem.
October 13th, 2008 at 1:36 am
I think you’re getting local buys there, either through the local station or local cable buys.
If they were national buys with FOX, CBS or NBC during the games, then we would have been seeing them out here in SoCal. We just weren’t, at least in numbers.
Perhaps Matt could get people in various parts of the country to Tivo/DVR some specific show next week. I wouldn’t do the MNF game since the split there would be betwen National buys with ESPN, and the local cable buys which are not likely to be heavily mined by the campaigns. It would be far better to do a show where we have the split between National Network Buys and Local Affiliate Buys.
John
October 13th, 2008 at 1:37 am
That’s strange, L.C. Here in Mercer county I don’t see the disparity you’re seeing. I see the Obama tax ad all the time. We get both Pittsburgh and Youngstown stations. I was out canvassing for several hours though so maybe we’re looking at different samples.
Or maybe…Obama got some deal where there was a lighter rotation today and today only because he knew neither the Steelers nor that team named after the color of feces were playing today. Truly the man is a political mastermind!
October 13th, 2008 at 1:53 am
I live in Utah — Utah! — and I saw the Obama ads >10 times on the networks today and yesterday, during college and pro football games. Zilch from McCain.
October 13th, 2008 at 1:53 am
Just heard the news that Todd Palin is now scheduled for at least two days of appearances in far northern Minnesota the end of this week.
Maybe they just figure North Woods types would want to meet Todd Palin, Professional Snowmobile Rider. Maybe that’s his base.
competing for northern Indiana means spending money in the Chicago market
Does “competing in Indiana” really involve much competing in the Gary area? I would have figured that area was totally for Obama anyway. Evansville and the Louisville suburbs are probably solid McCain, but Indianapolis and its vicinity would be the big competitive area.
October 13th, 2008 at 1:54 am
I don’t quite know the national/local allocation for buys during the NFL. I suppose it’s technically a national feed with local options, so it may be national buys on display.
(L.C. — if you trust the numbers that Kos gets from TNS Media Intelligence, McCain’s investing heavily in national buys.)
The true test of whether a candidate is running local ads? The Wheel/Jeopardy hour. That’s pretty much all political ads in my part of the world now.
October 13th, 2008 at 2:07 am
Josh E.,
I’d very much luck to think I’m the victim of some sort of psychological phenomena wherein the McCain ads repulse me to such an extent that they seem much more frequent than they really are. Alas, I don’t think that’s the case.
I’ve seen that one reprehensible McCain ad a lot. A real lot. This would be for at least a week now. Probably longer.
But — again — the only time I bother with broadcast commercial TV is either for the NFL, late night or the news. Perhaps the Obama campaign has wisely nailed valuable time during crucial (for swing voters or some other demographic I don’t meet) programming hours I don’t watch during the day. Geesh, I hope so.
And for everyone else — as I’m sure Josh can verify — you can be assured that in Ohio and Pennsylvania, at least, McCain commercials (sleazy, despicable ones at that) are most certainly on the air. And how.
October 13th, 2008 at 2:45 am
Most of the ads are National, but you typically can pick up on local adds. Such as “Southern California Ford Dealers” or for companys that have more local presenance than national (Carl’s Jr.). The local affiliate gets a certain % of the ads, perhaps one per every break or breaks that are entirely theirs. You use to hear on some shows the “and not a word from our local sponsors” tag.
The week of 9/29-10/5.
I’ve seen several articles on Obama ramping his advertising up and flood the market. My obsevation is that we’re seeing the flood.
I watch 9-12 hours of college football every weekend with a buddy of mine, and a 10 AM to 8:30 PM block of pro football on Sunday. The pro is “background noise” for a good chunk of the day, which has it’s pros and cons. I don’t actively watch every minute of it, so it’s possible that I miss some ads. On the other hand, I don’t as actively flip the channels during the breaks as we do on Saturday when there are 2-3 games on at one time (or more with our ESPN Game Plan package). I’m also pretty good at multi-tracking things when pro football (or anything else) is on the tube while I’m working on the computer or puttering around the TV room.
Point – I haven’t observered *anything* like this during football season from Obama until this weekend. As mentioned above, I’m in SoCal and we probably have some of the lightest funding by Obama and McCain anywhere on the electoral map. So all I tend to see are the National Ads. It’s probably one of the more ideal places in the country to get a feel for National Ads because there really isn’t much if any local buys to pollute it.
Really, the only time I’ve seen something as consistent as this was during the Olympics, where Obama’s “With These Hands” ads were in the heavy rotation, and I recall something from McCain.
I think what we’ll see come Wed when KOS releases their next round of numbers is a significant spike in Obama’s national ads. It’s pretty much the perfect time for it. Not just in terms of football heating up, but the new Network season is taking off. We saw CSI start up this past week. Most of the new shows will be on the air by this month, with the exception of seasonal starting shows like 24 and American Idol. I suspect someone who watches Dancing With The Stars can hip us to how much they’re seeing on there come Monday and Tuesday. My guess would be a big spike there as well.
Like I said above, Matt probably should organize a batch of his voters to “chart” the ads on a high rated show this week. My thought would be either CSI on Thursday. “Time Stamp” the ads when posting what aired, and describe the ad. We’d get a good idea from the different states and regions, along with the content, which are local and which are national.
John
October 13th, 2008 at 3:06 am
I live in Seattle.
I actually haven’t seen an Obama ad the whole cycle that I can recall. Seriously.
I have seen about 15 McCain ads in total which were almost certainly national buys. On TLC and the networks. I’ve seen the “Celebrity” ad, some crappy ad about that troop vote, and some crappy, dated ad about Obama raising taxes.
You mean there’s a campaign going on?
October 13th, 2008 at 6:45 am
Until this year when I moved to Baltimore I had always lived in swing states (MI, OH and FL). Obama has MD deep in the bag and there are no senatorial or major state races this year (just the congressional and legislative ones). What a delight not to be assaulted constantly with campaign ads!
October 13th, 2008 at 6:58 am
There is heavy Obama advertising, both TV and radio, in the Chicago market, that started about Tuesday or Wednesday. This suggests a huge stack of available cash, since the Indiana portion of the Chicago media market is relatively small.
October 13th, 2008 at 7:42 am
Obama is running ads in the NYC Metro area, sometimes in prime time. This is just making the rubble bounce.
October 13th, 2008 at 7:47 am
Here in Wichita, KS, the Obama tax ad ran Saturday and Sunday during football–4 times that I saw; no McCain ads in sight.
These (apparently national) buys, combined with the half-hour network buys on Oct. 29 . . . wow. Surely, one of the intents here is the political equivalent of Shock and Awe–but (judging from some of the comments above), these buys are intended as much to reassure current supporters as they are to win over new ones.
October 13th, 2008 at 8:53 am
broke his promise on public funding
Ah, when was that?
October 13th, 2008 at 9:33 am
That’s the kind of thing Atrios calls a “zombie lie”. You just can’t kill it.
October 13th, 2008 at 10:22 am
For all of this, we have to thank the September fundraising amount, which would not have been possible without one Sarah Palin.
October 13th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Is it possible for the campaign to have too much money? Has there ever been any research on the effect of too much advertising for a product?
Also, what happens if they’ve got money left at the end?
(I’m in a red state bordering a battleground state, but don’t pay too much attention to tv ads. My impression, though, is of a steady stream of McCain ads bleeding over the border, and state-level candidates tying their opponents to Obama in negative ways. Not a lot of Obama ads, but some on national feeds.)
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