Sep 6th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
You Don’t Need a Weatherman
Got back to DC just in time to get seriously Hanna’d during a perhaps misguided effort to leave the house:
While contemplating the storm, and the additional storms down the road, ponder Joe Romm’s post at Climate Progress about how, yes, global warming is making storms fiercer and will continue to do so unless we do something.
115 Responses to “You Don’t Need a Weatherman”
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September 6th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Raleigh got a little rain and a little wind. Nothing at all to worry about.
September 6th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Recent studies suggest that hurricane incidence will actually decline as temps increase due to a decline in the kind of temp gradients required for storm formation. Which makes sense in light of recent history.
One of the things hurricanes do best is siphon ocean energy up from the water and out into the upper atmosphere like a chimney. After 2005’s free-for-all of hurricanes, ocean temps declined a bit. It’s a variant on the Iris Effect postulated by Lindzen. However, one of the arguments against the Iris Effect is that if it were true then there wouldn’t ever be swings in temps since the Iris Effect, either on or off, would work to prevent them. Same with hurricanes siphoning off energy. The “something” that prevents that might be the decline in the sharper temperature gradients needed for hurricane formation. Hurricanes numbers then might spike a bit from time to time, but a season like that would be a special case rather than the rule.
I hope that makes sense.
September 6th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
Don’t need a weatherman? Ahh, but William Ayers disagreed. Really, I’m rather shocked that 60’s leftists would have thought to disagree with Bob Dylan, and in their name no less.
September 6th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
I like the fact that Hanna, which began in the southeastern Atlantic, will have made a huge clockwise loop and will eventualy be a rainstorm for the British Isles.
September 6th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Oh, I see, one (!) article has been published in Nature, and now Matt declares the whole debate is over.
Please, show a little skepticism and respect for the scientific process. These are complicated issues. I’m absolutely sure you wouldn’t react this way if Nature had published a piece arguing the opposite.
September 6th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
“…global warming is making storms fiercer and will continue to do so unless we do something.”
I would say: even if we do something. A lot of the damage has already been done, and will not be repaired overnight.
September 6th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
As I sit here in south florida watching Ike… clearly warmer water intensifies the storm. Cat. 1 storms hit the warm Gulf and become Cat.3 very quickly. Obviously, it’s easy to over simplify too. After all, the Castros are bad boys, and Cuba is really paying for it this year.
September 6th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Coincidentally, while driving home a short while ago I was listening to Dr. Michio Kaku’s “Explorations” program on the (not-exactly-apologist-for-big-oil-&-coal) Pacifica Radio KPFA in Berkeley, and the climate scientist he interviewed (sorry, didn’t catch the name, but it was a replay of a 2005 post-Katrina interview) said that the anthropogenic factors in global warming only contributed about 2% to the intensity of hurricanes in recent decades as well as for the next several decades.
September 6th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
This is why I get so upset when climate change folks use weather anecdotes to substantiate their claims. If the guys from Ice Road Truckers say that it’s hard to believe in global warming when there are icicles growing off your nose in a heated truck, they are dismissed with nothing more than, “The science is very complicated. Go read the literature.” But doof liberals, even college professors I’ve had, can look out the window in summer and say, “Sure is hot! I don’t EVER remember it being THIS hot! EVER!” or during hurricane season say, “Wow! These storms sure are getting stronger and more frequent!”
It’s hurricane season. It rains. Hard. We should expect this, especially since 2006 and 2007 were so mild compared to 2005. The planet has been warming since 10,000 BC. It’s why you can’t walk to Asia anymore. Stop using anecdotes to substantiate an incredibly complicated area of science, or stop putting your head in the sand when giant blizzards dump unprecedented amounts of snow on Buffalo.
September 6th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
It doesn’t just rain hard, Yalie…… wind blow hard too…blow roof off house. Warmer water make wind blow even harder.
September 6th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
More intense wintertime storm events are a potential outcome of global warming as well.
We’re talking about putting more energy into a complex, dynamic system. One thing we know about these systems is that the additional energy won’t spread itself out smoothly.
September 7th, 2008 at 1:10 am
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September 7th, 2008 at 7:58 am
The planet has been warming since 10,000 BC.
Well,no.
Temps rose a lot coming out of glaciation, but plateaued rather quickly. Since then they’ve been up and down within a fairly tight range.
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