What Is The Matter With Michigan?
Nate Silver has an interesting piece out taking a look at why it is that Barack Obama is having trouble securing a firm lead in Michigan, a state Democrats have dominated in recent elections, and a place where the current economic downturn is hitting especially hard. Inevitably, the piece is titled “What’s the Matter with Michigan?” He makes some good points, but one ought to consider flipping the the question around — why is Obama doing so well in Michigan?
Back in 2000, Al Gore and his campaign convinced themselves that the smart play was to avoid any discussion of climate change, even though this was Gore’s long-time passion, precisely because they were afraid of losing Michigan. Well eight years later, Barack Obama has outlined a very aggressive climate and energy policy, while John McCain’s veered left and right and left and right again according to circumstance, making it seem like he’s not going to put any real muscle behind anything. Progressives have done a ton of work to try to formulate green policies that are as friendly as possible to industrial areas like Michigan (see CAP’s green recovery report), but you could certainly imagine a Michigander figuring he’d just as well go for the “drill here, drill now” guy and kind of vaguely hope that gas prices fall sometime soon. Ultimately, I think that kind of thinking is myopic, even in purely economic terms (again, see the green recovery report) but it’s hardly baffling or incomprehensible.
All of which highlights a neglected aspect of economic voting. You hear a lot about slicing the electorate up according to income, but relatively little about slicing it up according to what people actually do. But the sector-wide effects of policy shifts can be dramatic. Defense buildups are great for defense contractors. A serious cap-and-trade program would be terrible for the coal industry. The strictly self-interested voter would pay a lot of attention to this kind of issue.
62 Responses to “What Is The Matter With Michigan?”
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September 11th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
All three of the “Big Three” are flirting with bankruptcy. If Obama came out strongly and vocally in support of the American auto industry in a way that McCain could not without alienating economic conservatives, it might make a difference. Democrats are much more willing to entertain “industrial policy.” An “automotive Manhattan Project” designed in such a way as to send lots of $ and jobs to Michigan could sway voters without being contrary to progressive principles. If McCain tried to follow suit he’d risk the wrath of economic conservatives. Is this what they call a “wedge issue”?
September 11th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
“one ought to consider flipping the the question around — why is Obama doing so well in Michigan?”
But, of course, he’s not doing so well in Michigan.
In ‘00 and ‘04, Dems ran about 4 points above their national margin in Michigan. Obama has not been doing that well so far this year, (with yesterday’s poll being a bit of an outlier.)
September 11th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
Over the years, as Michigan auto workers turned into Michigan unemployed people, Michigan voters became less concerned about issues of narrow importance to auto workers and more concerned with issues important to unemployed people.
And of course, here ahs always been a lot more going on in Michigan poliitics than simply the interests of the auto industry.
September 11th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Um, haven’t we seen that voters are not aware nor self-interested?
September 11th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
DCreader – Am I reading you correctly? Are you saying that writing big checks to huge corporations that lay people off and ship jobs overseas is consistent with progressive principles? Can you please clarify?
September 11th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
What’s the matter with Michigan? Check on Saturday when they play Notre Dame.
September 11th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
An “automotive Manhattan Project” designed in such a way as to send lots of $ and jobs to Michigan could sway voters without being contrary to progressive principles.
An “automotive Manhattan Project” sounds nice, but I don’t see how it would be in any way helpful. The structural problems of the American auto industry will not be solved by technological advances.
September 11th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Predjudice plays a part. I live in Wisconsin and I promise you that the upper industrial midwest has a significant segment of voters who are not disposed to vote for black people. They are mostly working class, with the older being more predjudice and the younger less. It’s not lynchmob burn a cross on your lawn racisim, it’s predjudice. It doesn’t get acted on except in choices of where their kid goes to school, and in conversations, and in elections. This is pretty well know, isn’t it? You combine racial predjudice with the dissapointed hillary supporters and that explains most of the disaffected democrate vote.
September 11th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
I think Michiganders can see as well as anybody that American car companies are getting their collective butts handed to them by companies that adopted hybrid/fuel efficient cars years ago while they stayed addicted to SUVs.
Sticking with the current pro-oil policies has hurt Michigan more than most states. They have to no that better than the rest of us. So perhaps there’s a growing consensus that it’s time to pursue other avenues?
No proof here. Just asking a question.
September 11th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
I think that the American automobile industry should be looking forward to carbon neutral mandates or something of that nature. They are losing the game by the old rules. New rules, even ones that appear to favor the competition, can no longer hurt them really. Admittedly, it’s like getting beaten at baseball by a bunch of seven footers and challenging them to basketball, but who knows.
September 11th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
One overlooked part of the whole environmental question in Michigan is that much of the state’s economy is dependent on tourism (hunting, fishing, camping, etc.). And even for the state’s residents (I grew up there), hunting, fishing, and camping are immensely popular pastimes (the first day of hunting season is nearly an official holiday – many schools even close down that day). And the impact of environmental degradation on those pastimes has been very apparent. Fish stocks, for example, are way down across the board – I remember going out to the big lake as a kid and hauling in 30-40 perch in an evening – that never happens anymore. Over the past few years I have watched my Dad – a pretty conservative guy but an avid fisherman – turn into a dedicated environmentalist. When I asked him the other day what he thought of McCain, the first thing he mentioned was McCain’s position on the environment.
So all that is a long-winded way of saying – the environmental issue in Michigan can cut both ways…
September 11th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
I think you raise a good point. I suspect that voters identify with their industry more than their income level. On a dairy farm, I would not think that the owner votes Republican and the workers vote Democrat. I would guess they all vote for the party they think helps dairy farms.
It’s not always clear cut, though. Think of how an engineer reacts to regulation. Engineers that are good at dealing with regulatory issues tend to support regulation, while those that hate dealing with regulatory issues hate regulation. It all depends on whether you think regulation makes you a more or less valuable employee, given your skill set. I think people tend to vote in a way that improves their job situation.
September 11th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
Historically the regional differentiations between the two parties were really more economic sector differentiations. For example, northern textiles favored the protectionist Whigs while southern cotton growers wanted free trade. It was only in the post-WWII era when EVERY region developed heavy industry that the regional split eased.
September 11th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
I live in Detroit, and I agree that prejudice probably plays a part. I’m from the west coast originally and I never really thought of Michigan as a place with a large amount of racial tension. Wrong. This region is incredibly segregated and I have heard a lot of comments from white people regarding the Kilpatrick situation that makes me think that there is a lot of distrust of blacks bubbling under the surface. A lot of comments that are too close to complaining about Kwame as one of “those people.” As cw said above, it’s not “burn a cross on their lawn” racism. It’s more subtle. But it’s definitely there and it will affect the level of support Obama receives.
All that being said, my sense is that Obama is going to win Michigan.
September 11th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Both McCain and Obama have signed on to the Big 3 Bailout plan – Uncle Sam “lending” $50 billion to the automakers so they can (so they tell us) build fuel efficient vehicles. Before anyone buys into this bullshyt, here’s several things the republicrats won’t tell you:
There are dozens of cars sold in Europe and Japan that ALREADY get 50, 60 and even 70 MPG, and some of them are even made by the big 3. So why should taxpayers lend the big 3 money to build stuff that’s already on the market?
In practice, Uncle Sam lending $50 billion to the big 3 means Uncle Sam borrowing $50 billion more from China and elsewhere and then turning around and lending it to the automakers. So why don’t the automakers just go to China and elsewhere and borrow the money directly? Answer: because China and elsewhere aren’t so stupid. And we shouldn’t be either.
No doubt the Uncle Sam loan wouldn’t put a dent in the bloated salaries of the big 3’s moronic management teams.
As usual, the bailout isn’t about good economics. It’s about buying votes with your children’s money.
September 11th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
Al Gore talked a lot more about the environment then you give him credit for. Its true that he didn’t put forth an aggressive Climate Change proposal. But he was widely known to be an environmentalist. Its true that progressives while out of power have done a lot to sell the idea of environmental protection and economic growth going together, but I think Gore did what he could. Also, Bush put forth a cap and trade plan including CO2, he just abandoned it when he became president.
September 11th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
As usual, the bailout isn’t about good economics.
Everyone of a certain age will remember Chrysler and NYC and disagree.
September 11th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
“Everyone of a certain age will remember Chrysler and NYC and disagree.”
Good point. I remember thinking the NYC bailout was a good thing at the time. It simply had to be done. I thought the Chrysler bailout was a really bad idea at the time. But it turned out well, and I changed my opinion. Maybe we should take a look at what made the Chrysler deal work, and use it as a guide.
September 11th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
“Everyone of a certain age will remember Chrysler and NYC and disagree.”
“I thought the Chrysler bailout was a really bad idea at the time. But it turned out well, and I changed my opinion. Maybe we should take a look at what made the Chrysler deal work…”
Yes, of course both of you are right. Let’s never forget how well the Big 3 have done since the Chrysler bailout.
September 11th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
So all that is a long-winded way of saying – the environmental issue in Michigan can cut both ways…
Yes. We have one candidate from the shores of Lake Michigan and one from the desert. Let’s hear more about their ideas of stewardship of 6 quadrillion gallons of fresh water bordered by Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York (and Ontario, Canada)
September 11th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Yes, of course both of you are right. Let’s never forget how well the Big 3 have done since the Chrysler bailout.
Akin to “In the long run, everybody’s dead.”
Chrysler did bounce back and repaid the loans.
September 11th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Re ” The strictly self-interested voter would pay a lot of attention to this kind of issue.”
———-
No shit, Sherlock Holmes.
September 11th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
I’m originally from Detroit and I’m mixed race with black and white. The divide between black and white in the state is far greater than people from outside Michigan really understand. The subtle racism that exists in the state is not just strong, it’s entrenched. I’m not saying that Obama won’t win Michigan, but it’s an uphill struggle. The election will come down to how much of the city of Detroit votes, and which way Oakland County (Suburban county outside of Detroit and second largest in the state) goes.
September 11th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
Silver forgot the sixth reason Obama’s likely to lose: African Americans won’t be allowed to vote.
September 11th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
“Chrysler did bounce back and repaid the loans.”
I’d add that they paid those loans back ahead of schedule. The bailout worked. The problem is that Chrysler and the other auto companies were left to make their own decisions since then. And they made bad ones. Normally, I’d support letting the auto companies make whatever decisions they want. But it seems the industry has some pathological problem when it comes to making decisions. They need to be pushed in the right direction. I don’t like forcing companies to do things, but if we forced them to make more fuel efficient cars, they’d be more competitive right now. Strange as it might seem, regulation can help companies sometimes.
September 11th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
I’m with CW, Shikantaza, and Mike. Grew up near NYC, went to school at U of M (and yes, spent a bit of time traveling the state)…SE Michigan is a shockingly bigoted area. Mostly subterranean, but very pervasive. I would only add that this seemed to be more related to the white-flight phenomenon, and seemed less pronounced in other parts of the state. That would go a long way toward explaining why Obama dramatically underperforms Kerry or Clinton in the Detroit suburbs while dramatically overperforms (Kerry at least) in southwest MI, which tends to be quite conservative.
It’s a weird state. Some great people, but there is definitely an ugly racial dynamic going on there.
September 11th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
I think what Jeff was saying is that maybe if Chrysler had been allowed to fail, there might have been an opportunity for someone else to pick over the carcass and the American auto industry might be in different shape today.
GM doesn’t make money selling cars. They limped along on the back of their finance company for years. They are a sub-prime lender who sells sub prime vehicles on the side. They’ve dumped retiree medical benefits. They already have a two-tiered wage structure so they can hire new workers on the cheap. The unions have granted nearly every concession requested of them. Health care costs are an enormous burden – and is virtually the only thing the unions can bargain for these days.
Ford is similar. Look at that car in your picture? Who wants that?
Do we want to put 50 billion of taxpayer money into these companies? My guess is that will just be the start. They will either come back again, or hit the bankruptcy courts 3 or 4 times before they expire. If you let them go now maybe someone will pick up the pieces. Nobody will buy them outright – they are too toxic. DB gave away Chrysler, practically for free.
They made bad decisions. Exercised poor judgment. Let them go.
September 11th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
Michigan has a race problem. Of all the states in play I’ll say that Michigan is going to be the toughest because a large plurality of white voters will not vote for Obama.
There is a hidden Michigan history few are aware of. A very large number of Michiganders came from the south during the entire first half of the 20th century. I’ve lived in Michigan 25 years and came from Chicagoland. Large numbers of Chicago area people identify with the immigrant experience. That’s fading I’m sure but vague as it might be peoples history there, white people mind you, identify themselves as Polixh, Italian, German, etc.
On coming to Michigan I found such attachments practically invisible. It turned out many peoples grand and great grand parents, and parents came from the south. Often their families have little or no attachments there anymore however. In a strange way, strange to me coming from ethnic proud Chicagoland, many Michiganders seemed rootless. No awareness of old country attachments and a willfull forgetting I think of the economic failure in the south that brought them north to work in the factories. They fought to get theirs, through unions etc. and want to keep it and that’s that. History is for others.
And oh yea. They like to feel superior to blacks in a way that feels more southern to me, sans the more comfortable daily interaction of the races there. Michigan was always and still is highly segregated.
I’m blue collar and the casual everyday racism here in Michigan is I’ve found quite a bit stronger in ways I can’t quantify than it was back in Illinois. Admittedly this is a very very vague analysis and anecdotal in the extreme but here more than most places people understand the economic advantages offered to them by Democrats and unions but people are strongly pulled politically by racial animus.
Michigan $#0k to $100k houshold voters with industrial worker backgrounds will happily pull the Democratic lever usually, or would till staight party voting was eliminated, but throw in a good racial appeal on a Federal election contest and things get dicey for Dems.
September 11th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
A shitload of people from Appalachia also migrated to Michigan over the decades as the coal business waxed and waned.
We are not racist towards Negroes, per se. We hate everybody.
September 11th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
Sure, let’s just euthanize Michigan.
September 11th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
Well, I mean, that’s pretty much what we’ve done with Detroit, isn’t it?
September 11th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
Obama needs to mention McCain’s unconditional support for NAFTA, than maybe he might be able to win Michigan by a large number.
September 11th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
fostert said:
“I’d add that they paid those loans back ahead of schedule. The bailout worked. The problem is that Chrysler and the other auto companies were left to make their own decisions since then. And they made bad ones. Normally, I’d support letting the auto companies make whatever decisions they want. But it seems the industry has some pathological problem when it comes to making decisions. They need to be pushed in the right direction. I don’t like forcing companies to do things, but if we forced them to make more fuel efficient cars, they’d be more competitive right now. Strange as it might seem, regulation can help companies sometimes.”
I think this is a misinterpretation of what’s gone on in the auto industry for decades. The auto industry is one of the most glaring examples of how government intervention/support of a domestic industry tends to be a negative influence in the long run for a business that needs to compete on a global scale.
If the big three were left to their own devices from the 40s on and had no expectation of government help, they would have been forced to compete on a level playing feel with Japanese cars in the 70s. If there weren’t tax loopholes for trucks, the SUV may never have been built.
Government subsidies, tax breaks, etc. etc are rampant in the auto industry, and they cause distortions. The big three focus on leveraging those distortions instead of making competitive products.
These strategies work in the short term perhaps, but they focus a company’s energies on losing strategies. Having grown accustomed to gov’t largesse, these behemoths can’t react to changes to the competitive landscape and instead return to DC for assistance.
If these companies can’t stay in business on their own, they should go under. Toyota, Honda, Nissan, they all manufacture cars in the US and hire US workers. Who cares who the owner is? Whoever makes us better cars and is willing to build some of them here should win.
September 11th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
Re: One overlooked part of the whole environmental question in Michigan is that much of the state’s economy is dependent on tourism (hunting, fishing, camping, etc.).
One of those “etcs” is skiing, which is very big in Michigan, and which is in trouble due to global warming, even in the northern snowbelt parts of the state. I grew up in the southern, least snowy part of Michigan, and even there we used to have snow on the ground from early December through the end of February with maybe just one brief thaw. Michigan still gets plenty of snow (it showed last year in April when I was visiting for Easter), but there are whole weeks in winter now when it’s 50 and raining. The ski resorts have a tough time with that.
As for white Michigan’s attitude toward Black politicians, one name defines it: Coleman Young. I even spit when I say it. The guy was a corrupt, potty-mouthed, race-baiting demagogue who drove Detroit into the ground all the while blaming his suburban neighbors. Still, I will be shocked if McCain takes Michigan– not with its awful economy, its long-term Democratic trend and the fact that it’s hard to find a Bush fan even in the rural hinterlands of the UP.
September 11th, 2008 at 9:28 pm
JonF,
I live in MI now, and I definitely see people visibly shudder whenevr they mention the name Coleman Young. He sounds like he was pretty damn bad….do you have any choice quotes or stories to illustrate your point? I’d love to hear the worst.
Oddly enough, it appears that the UP is represented by a (pro-life) Democrat, Stupak. I wish to God we had more men like Stupak in the Congress.
September 11th, 2008 at 10:00 pm
No one’s mentioned the fact that Michigan has been in a recession or near-recession since 1978. “Roger and Me” isn’t an old movie, it’s current events. Communities are holding onto manufacturing jobs with ripped fingernails, and still losing them, with service and tourism not nearly taking up the slack.
Every high school has seen its top ten graduates following the Chicago pipeline out of the state for the last 20 years. Some return with a wish to reinvigorate the home place. They last for a few years and then leave.
Because the other great fact about Michigan’s decline is the extent to which nearly all politics is local and inbred machine based. Someone like Obama can rise to the top of the heap in Chicago–in Detroit he’d be lucky to get a job as a staffer for the current placeholder of a dynasty that started about the time of the New Deal. In Flint there will always be a descendant of the judge who tried to break the Sitdown Strike on the county bench or board. In Oakland County Osama bin Laden could get elected if he changed his name to Fitzgerald.
In the face of such ossification, the talented get the hell out of town and state, leaving a stew of mediocrity-at best- to simmer and stifle.
September 11th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
I’m here in the inner-ring suburbs of Detroit. Despite the economic problems that would seem to give Obama an easy win, he faces an incredible battle here because of his skin color. Racism is deeply entrenched here, much more so, I’ve learned, than many around the country can comprehend.
My circle of liberal relatives and friends are not optimistic.
September 12th, 2008 at 10:18 am
I’ll echo most of what people are saying here about my home state. (born in the UP, went to MSU, live in Kalamazoo) People like my father-in-law might have voted for John Edwards or someone like that, but they won’t vote for Obama.
“Oddly enough, it appears that the UP is represented by a (pro-life) Democrat, Stupak. I wish to God we had more men like Stupak in the Congress.”
Stupie’s not bad, except for, as you note, being pro-life. The UP only recently swung to voting Republican. He’s supposed to be considering a run for governor when Granholm is done.
The only thing in Silver’s article I’d quibble with would be an overestimating of Granholm’s win in 2006. The GOP ran Dick DeVos, son of the Amway people and his lack of charisma outside of the Grand Rapids area could only be rivaled by the Republican nominee in 2002, Dick Posthoumus.
Granholm won, I think, because she ran a relentless campaign of DeVos= Bush and because Amway is seen as the shady joke it is once you get a little ways away from Grand Rapids. Obama should take note of the first point and run a lot of photos of the McCain/Bush hug.
September 12th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Witless Chum,
Er, I’m pro-life. Stupak’s being a pro-life Democrat is part of what I like about him.
Oddly enough, Boston MA and Providence RI despite being two of the most solidly liberal Democratic cities in the country, are both represnted by pro-life Democrats in congress. (Well, to be precise only the southern half of Boston, but still).
September 12th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
Some more observations about my home state:
Michigan does have immigrant communities. There’s a huge Middle Eastern one in and around Detroit. Ann Arbor has a large Asian population. As late as the 90s there was a still a large Polish community with links to the old country and its traditions. Not all Michiganders are Southerners!
In the 90s Michigan enjoyed an economic boom. Autos did just fine (the age of the SUV) and my blue collar friends whined about too much overtime. But it wasn’t just cars: there was a burgeoning high tech/IT industry in the state, much it along the corridor of I-696, I-275 and M-14. A programmer friend of mine moved to Michigan from Texas back then because a career counsellor told him jobs were plentiful, paid well and the cost of living was modest. Western Michigan also did well in those days, and up north Traverse City went from a seasonal tourist town to a fast growing magnet city in its own right. There’s a big question here as to what happened and why, even if autos slumped, the rest of that industry never recovered either.
Coleman Young: he was in office forever and I don’t recall too many stand-out moments. The man couldn’t open his mouth without swearing and the news never broadcast him live, generally editing out the obscenities. Occasionally they’d have to run something and bleep out the bombs, with a demure after-comment by the anchor of “Well, his honor certainly feels strongly on the topic!” He maintained that whatever went wrong in Detroit was the fault of the suburbs (although Lansing handled him with kid gloves, both Democratic and Republican administrations) or perhaps of Ronald Reagan (”old prune-face” in his lexicon). He claimed that the drug dealers all came from the suburbs to addict and fleece innocent Detroiters. When he finally had to admit that Detroit had a crime problem (after the venerable Rosa Parks was mugged) he instructed the thugs to hit the road or he would kick their butts across Eight Mile (=into the suburbs). There was also a rather tame scandal with a love child, and lots of rumors about payola, mob influence, bad cops, union corruption, and much else besides. He didn’t just produce white flight (that was already in full swing), he also stimulated black flight, as the Black middle class packed up and moved north of Eight Mile too, leaving ruins that nature is starting to reclaim.
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