Today Tskhinvali, Tomorrow Anchorage?
I’d been dismissive of the idea that the Russian Empire is on the march in the wake of the war with Georgia, but Robert Farley takes note of Sarah Palin’s apparent fondness for Alaskan separatism and wonders if we’re not looking at an Eduard Kokoity scenario:
While most folks are concentrating on the implications of this development for late night comedy, I’d like to sound a more serious note. This is hardly the first time this summer that a political leader in a former Russian territory has staked out a fringe secessionist position; could the new-found prominence of the Alaska Independence Party portend a South Ossetia style invasion and annexation? Conservatives have been touting Alaska’s proximity to Russia and Palin’s consequent foreign policy experience; does this mean that Governor Palin has already engaged in negotiations with Prime Minister Putin and President Medvedev? It would be irresponsible not to speculate….
You’ve got to admit, it’s a pretty chilling scenario. And I think Russian domination of Alaska would count as a more serious geopolitical threat than Russian domination of a region Russia has always dominated.
46 Responses to “Today Tskhinvali, Tomorrow Anchorage?”
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September 2nd, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Come on, Matt, this is completely ridiculous. So there are three guys in Alaska who think it should be its own state? Picking this kind of a fight with America is a death wish. I can’t believe you are shoveling us this kind of manure.
Palin has no foreign policy experience, and the Republicans are trying to string some together for her with Scotch tape and bubble-gum. It’s that simple– more Republican lies.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:37 pm
That backwater states like George can realistically defend themselves against Russian aggression goes to show how miniscule of a threat to America and Alaska Russia really is.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:38 pm
“And I think Russian domination of Alaska would count as a more serious geopolitical threat than Russian domination of a region Russia has always dominated.”
No, no, no…
Russian domination of Alaska makes us safer. Right now, Russia is just a few miles away, but if we give them Alaska, they will be almost 1000 miles away!
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Plus, school-kids in Russia are taught that Russia only leased Alaska to the US and the lease is due pretty soon so I should, by right, revert to Russia. That’s in fact true, at least for some schools in Russia (that they are taught this, not that the lease story is true.) I don’t think it will mean anything at all, but it’s an odd fact.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Hopefully a plucky band of high school kids can defend us from the Russian threat.
WOLVERINES!!!!
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Matt,
This post is a joke, right? Russia taking over Alaska? Or Alaska voluntarily breaking off and joining?
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:49 pm
1) I’m sure that that Sarah Palin would succeed as leader of an Insurgency.
2) After all, she promoted abstinence-based sex education in Alaska schools. So how did that work out?
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Palin_opposed_sexed.html?showall
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Yes, this is a humorous post, using sarcasm to demonstrate the completely bizarre manner in which righties choose to support one principle or standard of evidence when it suits, and abandoning it when it doesn’t. I.e., what if you talked about Republican candidates in the same whacked out ways that righties weave weird hypotheticals about Democrats? My interpretation, but, I think fairly close.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:53 pm
As long as we’re going back to the 19th century, I’ll throw in a plug for 54-40 or fight!
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:54 pm
1) As I noted earlier, the Russian stock index (RTS) is UP from 163 at the start of the Bush Administration to the current 1667 — a gain of almost 1000 percent.
In contrast, the S&P 500 has fallen from 1327 in Jan 2001 to current 1283. (Adjusted for inflation, of course, the bath has been even worse)
2) So who would you go with?
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:56 pm
could the new-found prominence of the Alaska Independence Party portend a South Ossetia style invasion and annexation?
Um…annexation by whom? Isn’t the following analogue really at play here–post-empire Russia wants its satellite back/post satellite US is going to want its satellite back? Isn’t the US the more likely aggressor in this (outlandish) Alaska secessionist scenario? Particularly if a region of American loyalists were to emerge, as was the case in South Ossetia?
Anyway separating is a little more complicated than just holding a referendum. Just ask Quebec, and Belgium, and any number of Balkan states that took decades of violence and ethnic conflict before they, um, balkanized.
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Just wait until “The Chronicles of SARAH Conner” kicks off next Monday on Fox. Then you’ll get the point of this pick.
McCain’s a big fan of the show. WHen he saw Sarah blow up the Terminator with an IED, he said “YES! That’s Leadership! That’s who we need to take care of that cocksucker Putin”
Put some contacts on SARAH Palin and SAZZAM!
Oh yeah –ditch the breast pump.
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:18 pm
Guess this pretty much kiboshes the Bering Strait Bridge.
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:35 pm
Here’s a video of Sarah Palin getting special Terminator Killing instruction:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yn7UzxXv8p4&feature=related
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Remember that war with Iran that supposedly we have been imminently about to have over and over against for the past six years or so?
This prediction goes in the same category (i.e.: abunch of hype that’s never going to happen), only it’s even less likely.
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:55 pm
1) The Sarah Connor-Sarah Palin meme will be an interesting lure that the Republicans toss to the Hillary women.
Something along the lines of:
“Yeah the Democrat Males TALK a lot — but they’re lazy, unreliable MetroMales. WEAK. They will always DUMP you –just like they dumped Hillary.
Come with us and we will EMPOWER you. Teach you how to use a GUN. So that next time that drunken husband or boyfriend gives you any shit, you can blow the cocksucker’s head off. What do you say? ”
2) Then Fox will run the movie 300 — with Lena Headey showing up as the Spartan Queen.
Then the next day, Fox will run a news story of Sarah Palin sending her son off to Iraq with the admonition “Come back with your Shield –or on it”. While a confused Sargent says “We use Interceptor Body Armor now, madam.”
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:09 pm
In all seriousness, Russian’s are probably cursing themsevles (or rather the Czar Alexander II) for selling Alaska. Imagine if Russia still controlled Alaska – they would be able to claim almost the entire Arctic Ocean (they already lay claim to about 50% of it), control the Bering “Straight” (as Matt likes to call it) and Alaskas natural resources in addtion to its already vast oil and natural gas reserves. Alaska would also be an excellent location for stationing Navy warships, missles and other military bases aimed at wreaking havoc in North America.
On the other hand had Russia not sold Alaska, it is questionable they would have been able to defend it in the subsequent world wars and other conflicts.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:47 pm
If Russia were sending people to AK, and those people had irredentist views then we’d have something to worry about. Hey, what does that remind me of? Oh, yes, this general topic that I’m pretty sure MattY has either deliberately mischaracterized or hand-waved away.
Maybe BHO should go to AK and talk about how the Russians were there first.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Farley:
This is hardly the first time this summer that a political leader in a former Russian territory has staked out a fringe secessionist position; could the new-found prominence of the Alaska Independence Party portend a South Ossetia style invasion and annexation?
Yeah the AIP is “fringe,” but who in the Russian-Georgian conflict is “fringe?”
Georgia had no legitimate gripe? In Yglesias’s and Farley’s world *might makes right*? Actually they deserve whatever they get b/c the Rightwing uses them as props? Very principled position…
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:16 pm
captcrisis:
You can’t tell by the last sentence of Farley’s quote? Do you even know where that last line comes from?
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:16 pm
Yes. This has been another edition of simple answers to simple questions.
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:22 pm
To be fair, I think most scenarios involving Alaska can justly be characterized as “chilling.”
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:36 pm
What’s the picture of? Is that an AIP gathering with Mrs Palin in the background?
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Matt, I am having trouble finding a jpeg on the web, but I remember that in 1995-6 when I was living in Russia, the Liberal Democrats included all (or at least most) of the former Soviet Union PLUS Alaska on their party flag/emblem. This was Zhirinovskii’s party and they were neither Democrats nor Liberal. At the time I remember getting into a fairly serious conversation with a liberal Russian college grad who thought we might actually negotiate for the territory… I told him (I think rightly) that we would probably blow up the world before giving up one inch of an Aleutian island. He was surprised. If anything, it was a rather interesting anthropological example of varying understanding of territory and nationhood. At least in the post-1991 period, after the break up of the Soviet Union, I think for many Russians territory seemed somehow more flexible, both sacred and up for grabs. Ukraine and to a lesser extent Georgia were rather hard to lose.
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Matt you have lost me with all these levels of irony and so on. Russia taking over Alaska! Why not Canada and the lower 49 while they are about it. And then they could do Europe on Sunday. Right.
September 2nd, 2008 at 4:20 pm
At least in the post-1991 period, after the break up of the Soviet Union, I think for many Russians territory seemed somehow more flexible, both sacred and up for grabs. Ukraine and to a lesser extent Georgia were rather hard to lose.
Well at least they held on to Muslim Chechnya… but yeah I suspect the Georgians are also nuts over their 2 disputed enclaves, the ones Russia is annexing.
It could be that Palin’s involvement was long ago like Obama’s liberal associates who were once involved with the Weathermen a long, long time ago. (Something Hillary and McCainites went after Obama over.)
But if it was more recent, it would be like Putin bringing on a Chechen secessionist as second fiddle, somewhat contradictory.
September 2nd, 2008 at 4:42 pm
If Republicans are smart, they will phrase the AIP as part of the Sage Brush Rebellion, and from what I gather that would be pretty fair. It would also resonate a bit in Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. On the other hand the avowedly anti-American language on the opening page is not so sage brushy.
As for Chechnya… if you remember, the first war was a disaster for Russia (and in fact I had visions of it when I saw the Russian tanks lined up along roads ready to mow down). It came as Russia was sort of in an enough is enough mood about losing territory. There was significant public resistance to the war, and a quite powerful anti-war mothers group, among a Russian population still suffering from Afghanistan.
Then in the winter there of 1995-6 there were a series of kidnappings along the border, and later in the spring of 1996? there were a series of (perhaps staged) bombings of Moscow apartment buildings, which helped push the Russian population into the war, and which Putin successfully rode to victory. I am not a conspiracy theorist, but if there is one to look at seriously it involves these bombings (and I say that as a specialist with a PhD in the field who was living there at the time).
My point is that unlike Georgia, at least among the broader public the second Chechen war had less to do with territory than with keeping Russia safe from Islamic terrorism. As I remember it at the time, I chatted with one very nice, modest, and liberal guy who was so angry at the (very real) border attacks by Chechens, that he said (his exact words in translation) “Bomb them (Chechnya) flat. And if they hide in the mountains? Bomb them flat too.”
September 2nd, 2008 at 6:14 pm
To carry Don’s “Sarah Palin is Sarah Connor” analogy further:
Women pundits are bitching that Palin doesn’t have time to be VP what with all the kids – plus she doesn’t have any qualifications. All these “feminists” appear to be pissed that Palin is actually acting like “Supermom”.
Coincidentally I just read an interview with Lena Heady where she explains that in her view, one of Sarah Connor’s main emotional problems is that her one true love (Kyle Reese) died and left her with the legacy of being the “mother of Jesus”, which makes her the “savior of mankind” by proxy. And she’s pissed off that all this has ruined what could have been her life. Lena says Sarah Connor would like to be able to say, “Fuck you all!” and go back to being a waitress in a diner – at least until some guy with Porsche comes along. But she can’t, so she goes the opposite way – being a “feral mother” who would fight and die for her son.
The difference with Palin, of course, is that she is the exact opposite in reactions: she welcomes the chance to screw up the whole country, and probably the world, by being an ideological nutcase and a stooge for a war monger while probably neglecting her kids big time.
As for Russia and Alaska, I don’t see any reason to believe Russia is interested in getting Alaska, except for the oil of course. And Russia obviously isn’t going to get Alaska unless it did secede, and then required somebody bigger to defend them against US efforts to force them to rejoin the US. That would pretty much be similar to the South Ossetia case.
But the whole concept is ridiculous.
What Russia IS likely to do to counter NATO expansion which is attempting to control the Caspian Sea oil is: push military bases in Iran. A Russian analyst I read this morning suggests that if Russia wants to, it could easily make a deal with Iran to establish one Russian military base in the north of Iran to monitor – and thus control – the Caspian Sea, and another on one of Iran’s islands in the Persian Gulf, to monitor and control that area in conjunction with Iran.
And, of course, Russia can also ratchet up its support for Iran by selling it late model anti-aircraft systems, late model missiles – including anti-ship missiles for use in the Gulf – as well as flooding Iran with smaller weapons and defensive systems. And of course, making billions building nuclear facilities for Iran, as it has already done.
The Russian analyst article referred to Iran as “Russia’s trump card” against NATO.
Not to mention that soon the Taliban will be cutting NATO’s supply routes from Pakistan into Afghanistan. Russia had offered to allow NATO to run non-military supplies through Russian territory to offset this loss. I’d guess that concept is undergoing thorough review in Russia right now. Cut off NATO’s supply routes and NATO and the US will be out of Afghanistan within ninety days.
The same applies to Iraq. If Russia were to covertly support Iran if Iran were interested in stirring up more trouble for the US in Iraq, then the US supply routes from Kuwait will be history very quickly. The US would then be forced out of Iraq within ninety days. Maliki’s demand for the US to be TOTALLY out of Iraq by 2011 – and perhaps sooner – clearly is from the Iran game plan. Iran would seem to believe that it can support Maliki’s government enough to keep it from toppling – and apparently Maliki believes it as well.
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LONDON (Reuters Life!) – About half the adult British public believe that children behave like animals and pose an increasing danger to themselves and others, according to a poll released on Monday. A report by charity Barnardo’s,
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