Somalia in Peril
Longtime readers will know that I’ve taken some on-again, off-again interest in the situation in Somalia ever since that country was subjected to a little-noticed Christmastime invasion by Ethiopian forces operating with American support. I’ll admit, though, that my interests has largely been driving by a point-scoring desire to pursue an internet feud against those who very self-confidently asserted that I was all wrong to think this operation was going to end in disaster. At this point, though, the situation is sufficiently disastrous that there’s no more need for I told you so’s. And, in fact, it’s all incredibly tragic — things have been bad for so long in Somalia that people are inured to it, but things have actually gotten much worse over the past year and show some signs of getting even worse.
All this by way of introducing Ken Menkhaus’s report on Somalia. It makes for very interesting reading, and offers a really useful summary of both how we got to the current point and also what the current lay of the land looks like politically. He tries, of course, to point the way toward a more constructive policy approach. I’m skeptical that any such thing will be done, but it is worth observing that our latest round of blundering appears to have generated some terrorism blowback already so it’s actually reasonably important that we start to get this stuff right.
42 Responses to “Somalia in Peril”
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September 9th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
I lost my taste for “I told you so’s” quite a while ago (see, e.g., George W. Bush). Being right about Somalia when Ethiopia moved in (i.e., when they/we decided to follow the beginner’s manual on “How To Create An Islamic Insurgency”) is just yet another nail in the coffin.
September 9th, 2008 at 8:50 pm
The War on Terror has followed the same path as the Cold War did: prevent the opposition from gaining a foothold by any means necessary. Somalia’s Islamists brought peace to the country for the first time since the last time the United States got itself involved over there (Black Hawk Down, anyone?) But, because they were Islamists, they had to go, despite the fact that they were never really given a chance to show whether they were Taliban clones or perhaps followed some more mild African form of the doctrine. With the latest intrusion, however, I think we can rest assured that the next round of Islamist rule in Somalia will be more hard-line than the last.
September 9th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
I just realized: imagine if this subject came up in the presidential debates? It would be an excellent way to contrast the foreign policy ideals of the respective candidates.
I know, I know. It’s funny, right?
September 9th, 2008 at 9:36 pm
We made a huge mistake of being associated with what the ethiopians have done in somalia.
We must stress to everyone that what the ethiopians have done in somalia has nothing to do with us.
Ethiopia should be told to pull out its troops out of somalia ASAP as they are linked to genocide and we must begin to win the hearts and minds of the people of somalia so that they can reject the Islamist and embrace democracy.
September 9th, 2008 at 9:36 pm
We made a huge mistake of being associated with what the ethiopians have done in somalia.
We must stress to veryone that what the ethiopians have done in somalia has nothing to do with us.
Ethiopia should be told to pull out its troops out of somalia ASAP as they are linked to genocide and we must begin to win the hearts and minds of the people of somalia so that they can reject the Islamist and embrace democracy.
September 9th, 2008 at 10:05 pm
But then, alas, we would be lying. And everyone would know it. It’s sad, no?
September 9th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
This is exactly the kind of thing we need to keep our eye on, but, of course, we won’t until it’s too late. Few cared about the assassination of an Afghan resistance leader Ahmad Shah Massoud in 2001, just prior to 9-11. Few remembered the name “Osama Bin Laden” from the World Trade Center bombing or the Lewinsky-era missile strikes against him in Sudan and Afghanistan. Or, more recently, the increasingly dangerous game between Georgia and Russia. Good lookin’ out, keep those lost places visible before they come back to bite us.
September 10th, 2008 at 1:13 am
On the (not so) bright side, if we muddle through long enough, enough Somalis will die so that the rest be conquered easily.
September 10th, 2008 at 1:45 am
The Somalis don’t die off all that easily. They’ve been flooding into Postville, Iowa to take the jobs at the kosher meatpacking plant left vacant when “la Migra” busted all the Mexicans.
Somalis are actually a lot more kosher than Mexicans, and a lot more legal. They pray five times a day, and its paying off.
Postville will probably have its first storefront mosque up and running by Thursday, September 11.
Happy anniversary!
Life is a comedy to those who think, a tragedy to those who feel.
September 10th, 2008 at 5:41 am
I remember thinking at the time that the wingnut glee at the ease of the Ethiopian invasion was totally crazy.
It was as if they got to relive the initial part of our Iraq adventure – the part with the actual invasion, which was easy and went well.
And they got to pretend, for a moment, that this was all there was to it: no occupation, no violence, no muss, no fuss.
September 10th, 2008 at 6:02 am
Maybe if we understood the culture, we might have a more productive approach. Sounds crazy, I know. But it would be nice if we gave it a try. Belligerance doesn’t seem to be working out that well.
September 10th, 2008 at 8:47 am
Why do we always act so surprised when people react badly to an invasion? Even if it’s for their “own good.” All they see are foreigners coming in and threatening them with guns and bombs, never mind what their own government was doing to them. We really ought to let other countries decide their own fates and to overthrow bad governments that don’t work for them. Unless, of course, there is ethnic cleansing taking place and then I think we have an obligation to defend the weak. But what do I know?
September 10th, 2008 at 9:21 am
A heck of a lot more than the Bush administration, apparently.
September 10th, 2008 at 9:48 am
Somalis also like to chew khat, so the drug warriors get an oar in too.
Nothing like convergent stupidities to produce a full Mongolian Charlie Foxtrot.
September 10th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Needless to say, this is completely wrong. Rather than providing a full explanation why here, I’ll just link to my comments back on this post.
Long story short – Matthew seems to think that a country is better off run by an extremist Islamic government like the ICU or the Taliban, rather than under an relatively representative government that suffers from an Islamic insurgency like the Karzai government or the Tranitional Government in Somalia. Why Matthew thinks this, I have no idea, but it seems to me to be pretty clearly wrong.
September 10th, 2008 at 11:10 am
It’s really debatable that all Islamist government is the Taliban, and it isn’t at all clear that Somalia’s form of Islamism would have been that extreme. Moreover, there were a lot of Somalis who were pretty happy about the Islamist takeover, considering that it was the first time they could travel in peace in years. Do you even know anything about Somalia? The country had been controlled by gangs of men with guns for more than a decade. These gangs would set up checkpoints throughout the city, forcing you to pay or killing you. Rape and extortion were the norm, with no force whatsoever in place to stop them. Now, I won’t argue that Islamist regimes undoubtedly stifle human development, but they’re still better than total anarchy in a nation full of Kalashnikovs.
September 10th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Al is the reason Somalia can’t have nice things.
He also works at the State Department and is in charge of Sub-Saharan African affairs, judging by recent events.
October 10th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
I think Mathew got it pretty right but I just wanted to say that I live in Somalia(Somaliland) and he seems to think that Somalia woes will be cured if the Ethiopian forces leave, I think not. Southern Somalia is a cauldron full of violent surprises that will break out if Ethiopia leaves, especially against who united in their liberation. The US has 2 choices either engage fully diplomatically or stay out of the business of Somalia. My tone is not Anti-American(because I live in the North), but rather saying Somalia’s troubles can only be solved by Somali’s(no joke). I am a northern Somali and you dont hear about us because we, relatively peaceful compared to the rest of the continent, and we are a democratic nation(elected President, Parliament, and Municipal governments), and we feel the hardship with our southern neighbors, but when we see the international community poise all their efforts and attention towards southern somalia and not even listen to proposals for a somali reconciliation effort in Somaliland and have hostile ethnic brother and sister threatening us with unspeakable violence then our pessimism must be understood. I did not want to write this long and stray pretty far away from the subject but i wanted to communicate with fellow citizens of freedom who wish for more pluralism. But, I believe most of you don’t what or where Somaliland is, so I ask of you not to always give opinions on foreign nations without including all particpants. Thank you
December 5th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: EU and NATO forces seem out of their depth as they attempt to stem the tide of piracy Efforts by the European Union and NATO to fight pirates off the coast of Somalia have proven futile.
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