Registration Gap in Washoe
The basic way that politics works in Nevada is that Clark County — i.e., Las Vegas and its suburbs — is Democratic and has a lot of people in it. Then Washoe County — i.e., Reno and its suburbs, plus some rural areas — is politically competitive and has some people in it. Then the rest of the state is very sparsely population and strongly Republican. Normally, though, Washoe breaks for the Republicans and thus Nevada is a Republican-leaning state. But Democrats are narrowing the registration edge in Washoe “county Voter Registrar Dan Burk said Republicans had 87,971 registered and Democrats 84,705, with a backlog of more than 5,000 registration applications awaiting processing. Since registration for the primary closed, the Republican edge has shrunk from 5,648 to 3,266.”
29 Responses to “Registration Gap in Washoe”
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September 23rd, 2008 at 10:28 am
Nevada is ground zero for the housing malaise. The bubble burst there is LOUD. You don’t hear it on the Strip, of course, but its a big deal for the locals. Hoping to catch the weather on TV a few months back I was struck how many “Foreclosure Tours” were advertised. It seems to me that at least some Republican voters there have to be feeling disaffected enough to suck it up and vote for the negroid fellow.
September 23rd, 2008 at 10:45 am
Considering that Nevada is 24% Hispanic and about 7% black, it should be a lock for the Democratic Party. I guess the only thing that keeps it competative for Republicans is that many of the Hispanics are illegal aliens and cannot vote legally. If you look at the trends in the Nevada State Assembly, the Republicans have little long term hopes of remaining relevant in Nevada.
September 23rd, 2008 at 10:48 am
superd, legal immigrants can’t vote either.
September 23rd, 2008 at 10:54 am
I heard an NPR report that pointed out Obama has spent lots of time in rural areas of Nevada that Kerry and Gore all but ignored.
And 538’s description yesterday of the Obama campaign’s registration drive in Virginia I’d assume is pretty reflective of their efforts elsewhere. In VA they’re going to sign up 300,000 and figure 75% will actually vote. They also figure that those who vote will break about 80-20 for Obama. That means that the number of newly registered voters is estimated to break about 60% for Obama and only 15% for McCain.
Nevada went something like 51-47 for Bush last time and 49-46 in 2000. Even a few percentage points in the rural counties combined with the new voters in the Reno area probably makes NV less of a swing state than we realize.
September 23rd, 2008 at 11:05 am
As a Washoe resident I would be reluctant to call Nevada anything resembling “safe dem”, but I do find the recent voter regristration increase, as well as the excitement surrounding Obama encouraging. In terms of sheer visibility in Northern Nevada Obama is dominating McCain. Until about 3 weeks ago you would be hard pressed to find a single McCain bumper sticker among the sea of Obama adorned vehicles.
I do agree with the commenter above who said that the LONG term prospects of the Republican party here look pretty grim, I’m just skeptical that this election will be the one that turns the tide. We still have a pretty dominant Republican establishment (Ironic that we are also home to the Democratic Senate Majority Leader, isn’t it?), but most of them will be term limited out next election cycle. Fingers crossed…
September 23rd, 2008 at 11:36 am
I don’t know, Matt. We were just in Reno for the weekend, and based on all the Obama signs it looked a lot like SF. I think Mike @5 is right. There was flair EVERYWHERE. We didn’t see a single McCain sign until we got to South Lake Tahoe a couple days later.
September 23rd, 2008 at 11:50 am
I wonder how much of Democratic registration gains are from Republicans who registered to get in on the Clinton/Obama fun.
September 23rd, 2008 at 12:03 pm
I wonder how much of Democratic registration gains are from Republicans who registered to get in on the Clinton/Obama fun.
Nevada was pretty early–before Rushbo started encouraging Republican participation, I think–and a caucus. I’d guess pretty much none.
September 23rd, 2008 at 12:05 pm
We were just in Reno for the weekend, and based on all the Obama signs it looked a lot like SF.
I live in West Michigan–Gerald Ford’s old home town–a place that ought to be one of the most reliable McCain places in the country, and which McCain absolutely must carry by a substantial margin if he hopes to win the election. Based on all the Obama signs it looked a lot like SF, too. Not sure what that means, though.
September 23rd, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Even with historic turnout, I believe only around 30% of registered Democrats participated in the Nevada caucus. So my guess in response to Patrick’s question is “not much”.
September 23rd, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Er – the map you produced makes it look as if most of the state (”most” in the geographic sense) is Democratic, whereas your post seems to indicate the reverse.
September 23rd, 2008 at 1:56 pm
What a thrill it was to stop by for a visit and see my county! I’ve been working with the Obama campaign, and I’m pretty optimistic about things. I think the registration gap in Washoe is going to close. I’ve got 3 friends who I have yet to register, and I’m one guy. Further, they’ve really been targeting the University, which will definitely break Democrat.
As far as the campaign goes, when we go out to walk doors lately, we’re increasingly talking to Republicans. That shows a lot of optimism. Personally, I’ve only walked once since we really started talking to Republicans, and only talked to 2 non-partisans that day who were both going for Obama. But I think he’s going to win here.
Thanks for the love, Matt!
September 23rd, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Washoe County Public Schools are 40% non-white. That is a number that indicates that the Democrats should have a slight edge. When the number gets to 50% non-whites, the Washoe County will be a lock for the Democrats.
September 23rd, 2008 at 2:09 pm
“superd, legal immigrants can’t vote either.”
Um, if you’ve gained citizenship…
September 23rd, 2008 at 4:04 pm
The key to a Democratic victory in Nevada has three prongs
1. Turnout in Clark County – they may have lots of Democrats but they have lowest voter participation rate.
2. Keep the Margins in the Cow Counties under 10% – it’s going to be hard to win any of the non Clark/Washoe counties but if the margin of GOP victory is under 10% there is a good chance of carrying the state (look at the voting results for Statewide offices in 2006)
3. Win Washoe County – the population is enough to offset the losses in the Cow Counties; without a victory in Washoe is near impossible
September 23rd, 2008 at 11:24 pm
Um, if you’ve gained citizenship…
True enough, my point was that it doesn’t make sense to hop straight from the proportion of Hispanics to “many of them are illegal immigrants and cannot vote legally” — if you’re talking about voting, what matters is naturalization, not legal voting status. (And “cannot vote legally” contains another red herring, because I don’t think there’s any evidence of illegal immigrants voting illegally either.)
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